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Montevideo, September 26th 2023 - 07:01 UTC



Argentine economy expands 9.4% in first half of 2010; inflation fears

Monday, September 20th 2010 - 04:59 UTC
Full article 37 comments
Domestic demand, bumper crops and sales to Brazil are fuelling the economy Domestic demand, bumper crops and sales to Brazil are fuelling the economy

Argentina’s GDP expanded 9.4% in the first half of the year compared with the same period in 2009, according to the latest release from the country’s Statistics Institute, Indec. But inflation is becoming a greater challenge as the country moves into presidential electoral year 2011.

Indec said that growth in the second quarter (April-June) was 3% over the previous period (Jan-March) which was also 3% over the earlier quarter.

High government and consumer spending, a manufacturing rebound, excellent crops and booming trade with the country’s main partner Brazil have helped to fuel the extraordinary performance of Latinamerica’s third economy

But strong growth has led to sharp increases in expectations for the rest of the year and inflation according to private economists is running at over 20% annually. Controversial government figures put the inflation rate at half that percentage.

According to private estimates and the Central Bank Argentina is poised to expand between 8.9% and 9.5% this year. This compares most favorably with 2009 when the economy slowed down to 0.9%, said the government. However private think-tanks dispute this and argue the Argentine economy last year contacted.

Precisely to combat last year’s slowdown the government boosted public spending to stimulate domestic demand which is expected to remain high through next year ahead of October 2011 presidential election.

Indec says the 11.8% jump in the second quarter was the highest year-on-year quarterly increase since at least 1994 a year after the agency incorporated a new statistics system.

But some analysts think official data is overly rosy when it comes to economic activity.

”Official statistics overestimate growth ... for us real growth is around 9 percent, which is still an excellent number, said former Finance Secretary Miguel Kiguel.

Last week the Argentine government presented before Congress its 2011 budget bill in which it forecasts economic growth at 8.9% this year and 4.3% in 2011.

Categories: Economy, Argentina.

Top Comments

Disclaimer & comment rules
  • fredbdc

    Wow! China and Brazil started cooling their economy when they hit 6.5-7%. This is going to be a hard landing folks.
    sounds very familiar doesn't it? Only $100 peso notes in ATMs what is next $500 peso note next year?

    Sep 20th, 2010 - 03:01 pm 0
  • Sergio Vega

    It sound very similar... I lived the Chilean tragedy from 1970-73 with the worst presidential term in our history, when the inflation raised up to over 1.000 % due the bad management of the economy by the Allende's team that made our entirely political, social and economic system collapsed just in three years....Then, it took almost 10 years and a lot of sacrifice to recorver our economy applying the social market capitalism and opening our doors to the world's economy.
    Argentina have suffrede the same problem with inflation nearly later then us, due another causes may be, but they have teh experience on it, too.... So take care with it, inflation is the most dangerous tax for the poor people in the country, don´t forget it... It will be better go slower and permanent growth but with controlled inflation that short time boom with uncontrolled inflation.

    Sep 20th, 2010 - 03:23 pm 0
  • Think

    Don't worry folks.....
    All is under control...
    We follow the new American Republican Genius: Christine O'Donnell's recipe….
    “Picnic” with the witches, mice with human brains and no masturb*****
    That will solve all our problems :-)

    Sep 20th, 2010 - 03:45 pm 0
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