MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

With Lula da Silva campaigning, Dilma consolidates as a clear frontrunner

Serra, running against the magic of Lula da Silva

With only four days left for the presidential run-off and President Lula da Silva fully involved in the campaign frontrunner Dilma Rousseff consolidated her lead over opposition rival Jose Serra according to the latest Sensus public opinion released Wednesday.

Support for Rousseff, President Lula da Silva’s former Cabinet chief and hand-picked candidate, rose to 51.9% from 46.8% in the previous Sensus poll taken Oct. 18-19. Support for former Sao Paulo governor Serra declined to 36.7% from 41.8%.

The poll surveyed 2,000 people from Oct. 23-25 and has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.

Near-daily allegations of government corruption are failing to cut into Rousseff’s support among voters who are content with Lula da Silva’s track record for creating jobs and reducing poverty, said Andre Cesar, founder of Brasilia-based political risk analysis firm CAC.

“The opposition didn’t present anything new on the economic front to win voters in the second round; Rousseff is a clear favourite to win”, forecasted Cesar.

Support for Rousseff, 62, rose and backing for Serra fell in four out of five Brazilian regions as themes such as abortion and religion faded and candidates focused on the economy, said Clesio Andrade, head of the National Transport Confederation, which commissioned the poll.

“The return of President Lula to the campaign helped produce these results” Andrade told reporters in Brasilia. According to latest opinion polls, Lula da Silva enjoys a high-record 82% approval making him the most popular leader in Brazil in the last sixty years. Lula da Silva is barred constitutionally from running for a third consecutive time.

Serra and Rousseff will take part in a final live debate tomorrow night on TV Globo.

Rousseff won 46.9% of votes in the first-round ballot on Oct. 3, to Serra’s 32.6%. Her lead dwindled immediately following the vote, according to polls, shrinking to 4.1 percentage points in an Oct. 11-13 Sensus survey. As that poll had a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, Rousseff and Serra were technically tied.

Now the candidates’ accusations are tending to cancel each other out, said Ricardo Guedes, director of the Sensus Institute. Speaking to reporters in Brasilia, Guedes said voters are focusing more on discussion of the issues, which benefits Rousseff because voters expect her to maintain Lula da Silva’s policies that have lifted 21 million Brazilians out of poverty since 2003 and created more than 14 million jobs.