MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

USDA downplays upbeat forecasts of Argentine soybean harvest

Insufficient water at the right moment is partly to blame

US Department of Agriculture attaches in Buenos Aires have warned against upbeat forecasts for Argentina's soybean harvest, saying many farms missed out on crop-reviving rainfall.

The attaches kept at 49 million tons their forecast for Argentina's 2010-11 soybean crop, a 10% drop on last season's, saying that “scattered rains did not benefit all areas”.

While some parts of Buenos Aires province, and worst affected areas of Cordoba and Santa Fe, had “received more rain in January than they did during the previous year”, reviving crops which had been tested a dearth of moisture since November, other regions “were not so lucky”.

An area comprising 20% of Argentina's soybean sowings “received much less rain than during the previous year”.

Here, “crop conditions remain varied, with dry patches in fields, short, stunted plants and wilted plants”.

The comments come ahead of the USDA's monthly Wasde report on global crop supply and demand, due out this week and a key event in the agricultural commodities calendar.

The USDA currently has the crop at 49.5 million tons, ranking it the world's third biggest, behind the US and Brazil.

Argentine Deputy Agriculture Secretary, Oscar Solis, two weeks ago pegged the harvest at “above 50 million tons, for sure”.

Other analysts, such as Oil World and Michael Cordonnier have raised their estimates for the crop in recent days, although to figures below 49 million tons.

Michael Cordonnier, at Soybean and Corn Advisor, this week lifted his forecast by 1.5 million tons to 48.5 million tons, citing “good rains”.