MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Lack of serious opposition ensures Cristina Fernandez re-election next October

The October election could turn out to be a landslide for Cristina Fernandez

With less than six months to the October election President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner leads comfortably, with no serious opposition on site, and with a public opinion support of 56%, similar to when she first took office in December 2007.

What is most remarkable is that in these three and a half years of government, Cristina Fernandez tumbled to 20% support in 2008 because of the farm crisis, but since then has been steadily growing (36% during the 2009 recession) and now stands at her departure point, 56%, according to Eduardo Fidanza, director of pollster Poliarquía.

“In the span of three and a half years the Argentine president lost over half her support but has now has recovered it again. This is the only government since 1983 (when the return of democracy) that has managed such a feat”, said Fidanza addressing a convention from the Argentine Finance executives institute, IAEF, which took place this week in Buenos Aires.

Fidanza also revealed that during April the image of Mrs. Kirchner dropped 3 percentage points and the performance of her government 4 percentage points. Nevertheless Poliarquía forecasts that opinion polls indicate Cristina Fernandez will be elected in the first round with 47% of vote intention, and no need for a run-off.
Fidanza said that the clue to Mrs. Kirchner’s victory next October can be attributed to a great extent to the lack of an organized representative opposition.

“Less than one out of five Argentines supports the opposition, which in image terms means that 4 out of 5 voters reject the political parties that make up the anti-Kirchner political arch”.

In effect the image of Buenos Aires City conservative mayor and presidential hopeful Mauricio Macri is 50% positive, 50% negative, while that of other hopefuls such as former caretaker president Eduardo Duhalde and law maker Elisa Carrió have an overwhelming negative image over 75%, according to Fidanza.

Strangely enough three characters who are close allies or members of the Kirchner government have an “unfathomable rejection image”. Such is the case of organized labour chief Hugo Moyano; Luis D’Elía head of the street picketers, closer to brown shirts, and Guillermo Moyano, the Domestic Trade secretary responsible for ensuring domestic supplies and combating inflation, literally ‘by whatever means possible”.

Artemio Lopez from pollster Equis and present at the IAEF convention supported Fidanza’s arguments and forecasted a first round victory for Mrs Kirchner if she decided to bid for re-election.

“I agree with Fidanza. Cristina is poised to win in the first round. The opposition’s electoral weakness was evident in 2007 when the difference between the incumbent Victory Front doubled the votes of its runner up, the widest since 1983” said Lopez.

“At national level Marci has 12% vote intention. Cristina doubles Macri in his own turf, 30% to 15% in Buenos Aires City. Even before the death of Nestor Kirchner the Victory Front was already prepared to win in the first round”, he added.

Lopez polls also show a comfortable victory for Cristina in October with 46% of the vote and 20 points ahead of the runner up, no matter what Macri decides who is said to be seriously thinking of stepping down and run for re-election as Mayor of Buenos Aires City.

An overview of the whole Argentine territory shows that Mrs Kirchner is winning in all electoral districts with the exceptions of Mendoza and Buenos Aires City.

Cristina Fernandez positive image in Buenos Aires City climbs to 47% and in the province of Buenos Aires, 51.2%. Vote intention is 30% and 47% respectively.

In other decisive districts such as Cordoba, Mrs. Kirchner doubles vote intention over her main adversary Ricardo Alfonsin, from the Radical party, 40.2% to 20%.

In Santa Fe, the situation is ‘more complex’, but the President has a solid 42% vote intention.

Finally Fidanza and Lopez agree that with Macri stepping down the dispute comes down to two main presidential hopefuls, Cristina and Ricardo (Alfonsin) plus a third testimonial presence, “but in all ballotage scenarios, first rounds and run-offs, President Cristina Fernandez is the clear winner”.