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CFK election win could be largest since return of democracy to Argentina in 1983

Monday, October 10th 2011 - 05:41 UTC
Full article 12 comments
Most opinion polls anticipate Cristina Fernandez will obtain 52% to 55% of ballots Most opinion polls anticipate Cristina Fernandez will obtain 52% to 55% of ballots

Argentine president Cristina Fernandez, CFK, is poised for an easy win with over 50% of vote intention for the October 23 election, according to several public opinion polls published over the weekend in the Buenos Aires press.

CFK supported by the hegemonic Peronist party is followed by Hermes Binner, Socialist governor from the province of Santa Fe with 12% to 16% vote intention and Deputy Ricardo Alfonsin (Social-democrat) with 9% to 12%. Alberto Rodriguez Saa and Eduardo Duhalde, both representing the ruling Peronist dissident groups, were each projected to receive between 8% and 10%.

CFK, 58, garnered 50.24% of the vote in 14 August mandatory, simultaneous primary elections extensive to all parties.

According to Poliarquia Consultores published Sunday, the Argentine president is on track to obtain 49% of total votes, but between 52% and 55% of ballors, when projections of undecided voters are included.

Three other polls published by the Diario Perfil newspaper of Buenos Aires projected that Cristina Fernandez would obtain between 53% and 57% of the vote, with undecided voters factored in. Management & Fit estimated CFK support at 57.3% and Ipsos y Romer and Associates, 53%.

The projected vote for CFK would be the largest percentage obtained by any Argentine presidential candidate in the almost three decades since the country returned to democracy, exceeding the 51.7% received by Raul Alfonsin in 1983.

Cristina Fernandez needs either 45% of the vote, or 40% with a 10-point margin of victory, to win the election outright without a runoff.

CFK has benefited from a surging economy fuelled by high farm prices, which have enabled her government to ramp up social spending. Since a year ago she also has received a wave of sympathy in the wake of the death of her husband and predecessor, Nestor Kirchner.

In a second term, however, Mrs. Kirchner would be challenged to keep the economy growing amid a more uncertain global economic environment which could limit the continued spending at home.

Categories: Politics, Argentina.

Top Comments

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  • GeoffWard2

    Hopefully, this high vote for the party and the condition of the state, will stop massive insurrection and riots on the streets when the economy collapses.
    People who buy-in to the prevailing politics are less likely to riot against the politicians they vote for.

    So the collapse will be with a whimper rather than with a bang.

    Oct 10th, 2011 - 11:19 am 0
  • O gara

    I didnt realise the Tories got such a vote Geoffrey.I will really have to improve my reading of English news.However that vote didnt seem to do much earlier in the year.I assume with your insider knowledge you now expect it to happen again soon.All this in the middle of those security cuts.Truly a frigthening situation.Do take care

    Oct 10th, 2011 - 11:47 am 0
  • GeoffWard2


    Oct 10th, 2011 - 12:31 pm 0
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