MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
“Fasten your seatbelts; it’s going to be a bumpy year!”
By Nouriel Roubini (*) - The outlook for the global economy in 2012 is clear, but it isn’t pretty: recession in Europe, anemic growth at best in the United States, and a sharp slowdown in China and in most emerging-market economies. Read full article
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Disclaimer & comment rulesEverything is being held up by China (again). Once the cracks start to show there look out below. Roubini is great value.
Dec 31st, 2011 - 08:59 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Thanks, Mercopress, for publishing this article.
Dec 31st, 2011 - 11:45 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Reasons for pessimism to UK .... and the Malvinas puppet people
Jan 01st, 2012 - 05:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0* The Government has embarked on savage public spending cuts that will dent demand.
* The QE impact is unknown. It could stoke inflation, forcing rate rises to control it.
* British house prices remain over-valued.
* Western governments and consumers have built up colossal debts that could take more than a decade to clear. A full explanation.
* Western economies face a demographic timebomb which could erode he wealth of nations for a generation.
* Libor - lending rate between banks and a measure of confidence in each other - has risen more quickly in autumn 2011
The UK had one of the worst budget deficit's in the EU in the last fiscal year, at more than 10% of GDP. It was second only to Ireland (-32.4%) and Greece (-10.5%). Basically that means the British government spent more than it earned - to the tune of £146bn, according to the OBR.
While that overspend is being reduced, the UK's debts continue to grow.
Britain owed £967bn in October, up from £837bn a year earlier, according to the ONS. It is likely to hit £1 trillion in 2012-13, given that economists forecast a need to borrow more than £120bn in the 2011/12 financial year.
Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-1616085/Economy-watch-Is-Britain-heading-recession.html#ixzz1iEDs81sa
This article has very little to do with the UK. UK is actually back on the right track and showing discipline. A lot of countries could learn from their lead. Hint.
Jan 01st, 2012 - 11:18 pm - Link - Report abuse 0No, the article isn't specifically about the UK - it's about how structural flaws and imbalances in the modern world economy will lead to a stagnation or recession in different countries, whether developed or not, spendthrift or austere. As for Britain's, the author said on her:
Jan 01st, 2012 - 11:53 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“Elsewhere among the major advanced economies, the United Kingdom is double dipping, as front-loaded fiscal consolidation and Euro zone exposure undermine growth.”
It doesn't look like Roubini evaluates Britain's newfound 'discipline' as being 'the right track'.
@5 And what Roubini fails to say is that our economy had grown in the last quarter, his pediction is just that a pediction, it doesn't mean we are in a double dip recession, as right now we are not in recession. They predicted we would be in recession again by the end of 2011, but in fact the opposite occured and our economy grew. So don't read to much into one persons prediction on the UK, after all the doomsayers only say it in order to make money from effect it has on market confidence.
Jan 02nd, 2012 - 12:07 am - Link - Report abuse 0Tahts right, UK is in the middle of the risk zone
Jan 02nd, 2012 - 12:17 am - Link - Report abuse 0Dear Hands Off... you said
“A lot of countries Could Learn from Their lead”.
I can not believe why the British are so arrogant and ignorant of their country and its economy, today nobody wants to be in the shoes of the united kingdom, even the European countries, UK has lost any kind of leadership for more than a century, and continue to plummet, with their behavior in the European Union and now are starting a new recession and nobody wants put a dime to save them. They are alone. Even god can not save the queen.
Has UK Q4 GDP data already come up? I think not. Anyway, I've read that the performance of the British services sector wasn't good for October and November - it slided in October and barely moved in November. And December data hasn't of course come out yet. Be that as it may, whether data will be more or less negative than now estimated is of little importance. The structural problems Roubini's points to are real, and, as governments have reportedly run out of tools to shore up their respective countries' economies, those problems have the potential to lead the world into recession or depression. The exact moment that will happen, whether it is now or a little later, isn't really that relevant. I understand that it may be personally scary, or that it may hurt our nationalist, to recognize that our countries are susceptible to economic hardships, but you should take solace in the fact that the UK isn't alone. India's industial output receded 5% in October from the year before. Chile's, which was expected to grow 4%, actually receded 0.8% also in October. Chinese factories are also failing to grow on a monthly basis, and in my own country, it has been noticed that our Christmas consumption performance was dismal compared to that of the last year, a proof that we too are on the brink of recession or stagnation. I don't really believe there's any real exception to the global economic instability, whether a European or a hot 'emerging' market.
Jan 02nd, 2012 - 12:33 am - Link - Report abuse 0Post above was addressed to Teaboy.
Jan 02nd, 2012 - 12:34 am - Link - Report abuse 0When i said last quarter i was refering to the last published quarterly results. Its obvious since the oct-december figures have not yet been published that i was not refering to oct-december.
Jan 02nd, 2012 - 03:17 am - Link - Report abuse 0As for british services sector, well that is just one of many different sectors so in no way does it give an accurate indication of the economy on as a whole.
I agree, its not just the UK that will face issues when it comes to growth, but we are in a stronger postion when compared to most countries and recession is simply a worse case scenario, that may or may not yet happen in the UK.
@BJK - “I can not believe why the British are so arrogant and ignorant of their country and its economy,”.
Funny you should say that, as many argentines can not see the economic and financial catastrophe that argentina is currently facing. So its not us brits that are arrogant, as we are intelligent enough to be more than well aware of current economic and financial issues in our own country. The recent issues in Santa Cruz, is not a local issue faced in that province alone, considering they are weatlhier than most provinces, but a national issue that all provinces are facing. Unfortunately the majority of argentina bloggers on this site, seem to be more focused on the UK than and competely ignoring the fact they now regulerly spend over 100 peso's on the average groceries shopping.
100 pesos is just over 18 Euro teaboy thats hardly exhorbitant in a country where the average salary is now about 4500 pesos(820Euro)
Jan 02nd, 2012 - 12:37 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The facts are the World is changing rapidly and Europe is a falling power every say less significant.The Chinese have vast reserves to push their economy in the way they want.They also have ample room to develop their internal economy.These economists put too much weight to whats happening in Europe and North America.They remain important but are not the omnipotent forces they once were.
Europe and England are engaging in serious austerity packages because of their overpowering welfare sectors.This does not apply in any sort of scale anywhere else in the World(maybe Oceania).The reality is the European welfare model is coming to an end you cannot afford this anymore the same with the ludicrous pension situation with people retiring in their fifties being paid for the state for another forty years.
I admit its not as bad in England as elsewhere but you put your money into the armed forces and are almost as bad as Russia in that regard.But as with the US the price you will pay for that will be high.THe central bank in Argentina was predicting economic growth of 4% for 2012 but now beleives it will be 4,5% to 7,5% depending on exterior fasctors.Would the rest of the world not love that level of growth?
O'gara you clearly haven't got a clue what your talking about. Yes 100 peso is almost 18 Euros, but thats irelevent as they do not use Euros they use peso (all you have done there is shown just how low valued the peso is against other the Euro, and they only have annual salary of 4500 peso on average less than half the average salary in the EuroZone. 100 x 52 equal 5,200 peso a year on groceries alone (more than the average argentina salary), thats not including any other food products, daily news papers, white goods, tobacco products, toiletries and certain does not include household bills, such as Gas, Electric and water. The food prices for gorceries should be no more than 20 - 30 peso over in argentina, just like the average grocerie shop by for a family in the UK is no more than £30 pounds.
Jan 02nd, 2012 - 03:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0As for Argetina economic growth, well don't forget to take into account the inflation of 25-30% or more which counteracts the actual growth. Meaning the economy has not grown, albeit output may have increased, but due to inflation counteracting any growth the economy will not have grown at all.
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