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Montevideo, October 24th 2021 - 22:41 UTC
A leading UK market and investment analyst, Edison Investment Research looks at the prospects of the Falkland Islands oil industry and suggests the industry could be worth 180 billion dollars in royalties and taxes. Read full article
MercoP forgot this important section from the real article:
But he cautioned that the recent political posturing by Argentina could prove a major barrier to securing the vital investment needed to get the prospects to where they are actually producing oil
Spot on Marcos! ^^
Typical MercoP understanding of providing the 'full' story of an issue. Third string quality press if I ever did see one....
@2 if you don't like it don't read it...
@1 50 years of Iraqi political posturing were not a real drawback to developing Kuwaiti oilfields.... and we all know what happened when push came to shove there ......
1 & 2
Argentina is becoming less and less relevant to the present and future of the Falklands (mid Atlantic islands not South American) by its own actions. CFK could have had her 50% cut as per the exploration agreements but who ripped up the agreements.
Even a fraction of the $180 billion will go a long way amongst 3000 people even after the City of London takes its cut for investing the money.
If money can be found for investment in oil and gas finds off the coast of Israel,Lebanon and Cyprus the Falklands is not a problem.The oil companies are big boys .Who is the world leader in this type of oil discovery and extraction ;Britain.
What was one of the other big stories in Mercopress ; ah yes Argentina
facing unprecedented energy shortage. Why not blockade a few more LPG ships.
What losers !
Pirates in the money
@1,2 I think you'll find that they'll pulling oil out of the ground in the Nigeria Delta where there is huge ethnic unrest and chances of being kidnapped. As @4 suggests, this 'political situation' isn't a barrier to exploration or development as no one really cares about Argentinian views.
The fact that you're failing to develop your own oil wells is just testament to how little the companies care.
Oil - makes the wheels go round.
I did laugh at the suggestion Argentina could possibly get in the way of investment.
Oil or black gold as its known is one resource that will get investment in quite risky situations although I guess Argentina is just too much of a risk for a lot of companies at the moment. At least you know with the Falklands Islands that the UK can and will protect companies and not either nationalise them or target them as the Argentine government has done to companies.
Politics and money
Mr and Mrs Kirchner who made their fortune buying up the houses of people who were unable to keep up with their mortgage payments, and contrived to keep adding to it after moving their headquarters from Patagonia to Buenos Aires. When pressed, Néstor Kirchner used to say that he had behaved that way because politics was an expensive business.
@8 this calls for a PESTEL analysis of the risks in the Argentine and Falklands economies
First for Argentina:
Political - Risky nationalisation and authoritarian
Economic - Risky hyperinflation
Social - Backward
Technological - Stone Age
Environmental - Uruguay
Legal - Easy to kill the indigenous folk / knock on the door in the night.
Now for Falkland Islands:
Political - Unicameral Democracy with an expansionist neighbour
Economic - Small, with growth
Social - West European
Technological - Normal/Agricultural
Environmental - West European Laws on Controls
Legal - Typical West European justice.
I'd say that from a Macro-economic standpoint, there are pretty much no barriers to companies wanting to prospect for oil in the Falklands.
Good post as ever GreekYoghurt, you are an articulate person!
@10. Agreed. The way CFK is damaging business, unions willing to blockade anyone that they think suit, and the problems with inflation must put off oil companies even before they go anywhere near the South Atlantic. Falkland Islands looks like a key business area!
What type of country could double the pay of its lawmakers and get away with it at a time of austerity and 21% real inflation except a Mickey Mouse country (apologies to Mickey here).
The Argies are doing a brilliant job in selling the attractions of their
peronist paradise to the Falklanders.
@13. No STRATEGICUS we must all be brainwashed and believe inflation is really at 9.8% otherwise CFK will pass further laws to stop us even talking about it. Hahaha
@11 it's the benefit of a classical education.
@12,13 9.8% is just the official inflation rate. If you take any official inflation rate and then include other factors such as wage inflation, immigration, quantitative easing, cost of living, and other factors affecting money supply and commodities, then you typically find the real inflation rate is a lot bigger.
Typically, the 'real inflation rate' in the UK is currently at about %15, whereas the official rate is somewhere about 4%. In Argentina, having an official inflation rate of 10%, wouldn't make anyone surprised if the real rate was over %30. The issue here is the gradient, and in the UK it's relatively static, but in Argentina this inflation rate is increasing sizeably.
Nobody will a shyte about the Argies if it all takes off. It's a convenient excuse to not get involved if you can't be bothered, but it most certainly isn't a reason that will stop anybody if they DO want to. The bottom line is that oil money talks, lots of oil money talks very loudly, and without doubt far louder than any tin-pot third-rate banana-republic plastic-faced super-loopy nearly-bankrupt semi-dictatorship with no legitimate influence over anything that matters ever could. Bring it on :-)
@16 FYI. No one gives a shyte about them now.
This EIR report is highly speculative, at this point in time its variances around its assertions are huge.
Not knowing the size of the total reserve within TFI's economic zone is fundimental. It conditions every other extraction and income variable.
But, what the hell, this is a political power-play report, not an economic report.
It gives succour to TFI, the oil industries, shareholders, etc.,
and it puts destabilising pressure on Argentina at a time when their economy is going into its terminal phase.
Argentinians are being encouraged to see 50% of $180 billion as their opportunity loss, and, as their poverty really begins to bite, to question their government's policy of shooting a golden-egg laying goose that could have 'kept starvation away from their doors'.
@18 It's going to be even worse when an MBA from University of the South Atlantic is in the Top 10 and they see the Falklanders even have pavements.
If they're so upset then they should blame the people who walked out of talks on oil sharing in 2005, and stop being so butthurt.
Good old Nestor, what a wise man, NOT.
Hey malvinistas, you could have had some of this, but.........
Don't you think that the old pirate that comes out of the ground looks like Think? ha ha ha!♥
Can't these Falklanders get into managed datacentres for the City of London? Your banking customer's data would be protected by 600 servicemen 24 hours in one of the best placed geographically separated regions of the world. It should probably employ about 100 people.
Does anyone know if there is there an optical fibre cable running from Ascension island to Falklands?
This is a reason why we want to remain British. In our current relationship with Britain the Islands will receive the taxes and levies generated by the Falklands Hydrocarbons industry. Providing an enourmous boost to the Falklands economy and improving the quality of life in the islands and safeguarding our future. If Argentina gets hold of the Falklands, all of the revenues will be sent to Buenos Aries where the polticians will pocket some and spend the rest elsewhere, while Stanley and the Falklands is allowed to rapidly fall into decline like other towns in Patagonia.
@22 If I was spending your Oil money, which I'm not. I would probably include a UK chartered University with an associated tax-free science park. Foreign students would die to go to any university where they speak English and you don't really need to charge that much in order to bring the grade of students you want in. To get professorial staff, you just make their income untaxed. You can focus on Agriculture, Oceans, Oil and Antarctica / combining it with the facilities that exist on UK bases there and other communities. Set-up 'Falklands Air' to fly the students in from South Africa, Uruguay or Chile, by chartering 'modern' planes once a week.
Then base your entire diversification around this University as a hub. It'll employ vaste numbers of local people and low-tax income will bring in the perhaps more senior minds who are feeling the pension pinch in USA or UK to work in the Science and Business Park. You could even combine this with the military and setup a flight training school, like they have in Australia for teaching people to fly various types of plane.
It shouldn't cost too much to put up the infrastructure (get the chinese or irish to build it).. and the delivered social benefits will be huge.
Don't you think that the old pirate that comes out of the ground looks like Think?
Too many teeth to be Think :-)
@21 Does anyone know if there is there an optical fibre cable running from Ascension island to Falklands?
No there is not... maybe some oil money could pay for one so C&W can stop charging 1 Falklands pound per 10 minutes of inet access .......
Argentina is now irrelevant. Vamos the brits! Uruguay should also stick it to the Argies and join with the Brits (as they have for a hundred of years) and cash in on the oil. Argentina has no-one to blame but themselves. They should have won the war when they had the chance :D
@25 You might want to consider getting one of those then. No business without communication. Something to talk to Chile/Uruguay about.
C'mooon, Mercopress, don't pretend you haven't heard of it!
@25 The unity cable (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unity_%28cable_system%29) is 10'000 miles long and cost £300 million. (approx £30'000 a mile) So best bet would be to connect it up to Punta Arenas which is about 400 miles away (£4 million), but those pesky Argies might cut it. You could then share the cost of running the cable up Chile with their government.
Next best bet is to run one down from Uruguay or Brazil (1200 miles = £12 million) but the pesky Argies couldn't cut it then.
If you gave C&W an interest free loan over leasing the use of the cable for 100 years then I'm sure it would be worth the expenditure. Also, the it might be worth running it out to the Antarctic, and the UK gov might assist with funds.
Should give you at least 7.68 Tbit/s. More than enough for your average Islander to play Starcraft.
WOW. $180 billion. Good the Falkland people can pay back the UK taxpayers for saving their asses. However, let us get real the UK should negotiate with Argentina - lease and sahare the spoils of the seas.
@30 Other than the $180 billion, which part of anything you just said was getting real? It's not clear, because they're not allowed to negotiate with Argentina as it would be against the principles of the UN, since Argentina wants exchange of sovereignty, which is against the remit of the Special Committee on Decolonisation, and against the Charter's key principle of Self Determination. By negotiating, the UK is simply going against all of those things. That's not getting real.
Argentina is irrelevant. Who gives a flying F$%K about self determination now? Lets grab the oil and plunder these islands. Suck them dry for 30 years and then give them back to that Junta in the west so they have somewhere to send their corrupt politicians lol.
let us get real the UK should negotiate with Argentina
@32 I just read your comment a few times and it still appears to mean nothing.
@34 its going to mean something once that black gold starts pouring out and the fat cats in London start licking their chops :D.
Guess what david willets just told the Islanders?
You can have your oil but you can expect to be handed the bill for your defence and the defence of the oil rigs and vessels.
And those expenses will rise to about £700 million a year if britain has to provide a new air link direct to the uk plus more troops, ships, helicopters etc.
David Cameron knows very well how the british taxpayer is going to respond when they are bombarded with lurid media reports of Islanders living like rich middle east potentates.
Guess what Mike Summers might say?
Stuff that. We can hire mercenaries - like he said in June 1998 when he thought oil had been discovered and Islanders were talking about Independence and were even considering working a deal with Argentina.
@36 And those expenses will rise to about £700 million a year if britain has to provide a new air link direct to the uk plus more troops, ships, helicopters etc.
I cannot see why there would be any need for any of the things you just mentioned. They won't be needing an aircraft carrier either apparently, nor a space shuttle, nor a team of specially trained ninjas.
Your attempts to make the 'Join Argentina' option of 'giving all the money to Buenes Aires politicians to offshore in the dutch east indies' is just dripping with utter utter fail.
David Cameron knows very well how the british taxpayer is going to respond when they are bombarded with lurid media reports of Islanders living like rich middle east potentates.
Thats where your wrong sunshine,we would rather see the Islanders giving it large, than to see you argies getting a penny,in fact we would laugh our bollox off enjoying the argies looking like the bisto kids with green eyes
@38 I'm not convinced that your typical Argie would ever see any of it anyways, it would all be squirreled away into a series of numbered accounts in a swiss bank.
I've just been reading the resolutions passed by the OAS during 1982.
They are a hoot:
...especially the last one.
@40 I'm not sure if I'd class the last one as a resolution. It seems to be more of a rant-like stream of consciousness.
It makes the Argentinians look really hard done to. Makes the UN look ridiculous. I wonder what the USA did when they read it.
and again the brits get the blame.
fyi re. #40
Wrt The Falkland/’Malvinas’ war, the Organisation of American States (excluding the USA, Canada, etc.) minuted in 1982 (edited for clarity):-
its concern and its hope for a rapid, peaceful solution.
It offered friendly cooperation in the peace efforts already under way, whilst recognizing the Argentine Government’s legitimate right of self-defence.
It urged the UK and the Argentine governments to cease hostilities, urging them to call a truce and to refrain from any act that may affect inter-American peace and security.
It supported external initiatives to justly and peacefully settle the problem, and it hoped that the USA would broker a peaceful settlement.
It deplored the EU’s (and others’) economic and political pressure against Argentina, urging them to stop, and it passed the appeal to the UK government and the UNSC.
It kept this appeal to restore and preserve peace and settle the conflict by peaceful means, on the table of the OAS ‘for as long as is necessary’
It condemn the attack by the UK before peace negotiations had been exhausted, and demanded that the UK stop the war against Argentina and withdraw.
It hoped that the UN would broker a peaceful and honourable settlement, and deplored the UN veto by the UK.
It asked the USA to stop its coercing of Argentina and its help for the UK.
It asked the Rio Treaty signators to support and assist Argentina as they saw fit, though reaffirming the OAS principle of peaceful settlement of disputes.
Seems like an odd thing for the Minister of State for Universities and Science to be saying. BS perhaps?
It needs to be taken in context, while OAS were condemning British agression, 2 Para were liberating the 114 Islanders who'd been held in Goose Green Recreation Club where they'd been held for the previous four weeks. It'd be laughable if it wasn't so tragic.
What's tragic is the loss of life on both sides all as a result of TWO crazy people who were losing credibility with their people..run up the flag on both sides and get the population to salute and just forget what's happening in-country. Both leaders have blood on their hands. Now the new lot want oil on their hands. Who do you think is going to benefit from the oil...not you...not me...not the UK...not the Falklands...no it's going to be the friends of Cameron.
Smoke and mirrors.
Fantastic News for the Falklands and there Future growth, the usual argentine SOUR Grapes Oh what a SHAME!!!!!!
Long Live the Falklands.
Down with argentine Colonialism.
@44 It also needs to be taken in context, while OAS were condemning British aggression, Major Patricio Dowling and his peaceful Argentinian chums were apparently playing russian-roulette with an imprisoned hand-cuffed farmer, clicking a pistol at the back of his head.
Hmm, OAS supporting authoritarian fascism and cowardly death games.
Dreyfoss- as usual - of date and out of touch! Fallklands Govt has long said that IF there is commerical oil extraction - its still a big IF - then one of the things that would happen with the revenue is that we would start to pay for the cost of defence - nothing new there at all.
Incidentally we already contribute approx £2million a year towards the twice weekly flights,probably a million or so towards the seafreight link,
and around £100,000 a year in direct infrastructure buidings at the base.
So thats us contributing about £1000 a year per head man woman and child towards our defence already.
I am argentinian, lived in the UK for six years and never ever was I treated badly just bacause of my nationality. I often thought about visiting the Falklands but I wonder whether the locals will give me a hard time while I am there? I respect their stance on the sovereinty issue, I suppose that would make them treat me with less hostility?? Have a great weekend everyone!
$180 billion - hum - how much would it come to for enough nuclear weapons to make the Mar Mierda (New East Chilean Sea) a reality and solve regional politics permanently?
@49 on a more serious note Argentines who want to come to the Falklands and who respect our position and way of life are usually welcome by the majority here. It's just your countrymen that come in with attitude and waving a blue and white flag that might get it stuck somewhere painful!
@49 The Islanders are unlikely to care, it's not your fault your government ascribes to despotism. Maybe take them a bowl of banana or some fresh fruit as a nice gift.
@50 You know how they have to put Falkland Island (Malvinas) in order to appease the quasi-nazi constituents of the UN. Well, do you think the UN could appease the democratic elements of the UN by calling it Argentina (Mar Mierda)? It's only fair, right?
We build atomic submarine, it will sail to your River Themes and torpedo Beckingham Palace.
@52 I think Beckingham Palace is in Kent and probably well protected from torpedos and massive crowds of plebs begging for a signed football. It's no where near 'the River Themes', over whose babbling currents one can softly hear the music at the beginning of tv shows.
#53 Filippo is a Britard in disguise. Even this theme of making nukes rain over random countries, is Conqueror/Typhoon at his best (or craziest).
he has a good imagination,
a torpedo that can travil through the earth and rock, to get from the thames to the palace,
perhaps a plane could follow, just in case the crew wants asylum .
Very nice a lot of money and resources to be stolen by UK! Congratulations british thiefs!
We don't accept congratulations from lunatics, ldiota!
@57 Doesn't all their money get stolen by their political uberclass? Why are all the untermenschen not mentioning this? I guess because if they mention it then they and their families go missing.
Falklands = Argentinian 2-minutes hate - FACT
@52 Your atomic submarine is still on the drawing board. Much like your brain. When you sail to the River Themes how are you going to get through the Thames Barrier? So explain to us how your torpedo is going to reach a building 1500 metres from the river, i.e. Beckingham Palace? Take your time, dipstick. Be glad to hear your answers.
@54 Wrong. Haven't you tried this supposition before? You were wrong then. You're wrong now. Better luck next time.
@56 Sorry, stolen? Are you some sort of RETARD? That's a rhetorical question. we all know you really ARE a RETARD. Argies steal! South American steal! Latins steal! Spaniards steal! Argie definition of stealing = Argies steal something, rightful owner takes it back, argies scream it was stolen from them to anyone who will listen. Let's make a guess. Argie population = 40,117,096. Liars, cheats and/or thieves = 40,117,000. When will we hear from the 96 honest argies?
Besides why does this oil upset you so much, why are you so interested in something that is not yours, why the crying and screaming , why the insults
So it must be something that gets your goat,
Mmm// greed, springs to mind, evil thoughts , ambition , land grabbing,
Or carpet braggers, [as the Americans say,,,
One things for sure, you definitely don’t have the islands interests at heart,
Just their wallets in your minds??
The problem, Typhoon, is that you've made Filippo an Argentine version of yourself. Try and be more creative next time you troll another people you hate.
Because their psyche can't handle losing. They always have to win.
Life's not like that.
Plus the oil or rather, their lack of a share, really irks them.
Tough cheese, RGs.
do they not have there own oil and resourses,
why take other peoples stuff .
@63 They have lots of oil and gas, but they don't have the ability to get it out of the ground (no capabilities with fracking, etc). It might as-well be bubbling up through the lawn of the Casa Rosada, but they have no means of turning it into anything useful. No prospecting company will go near them because when they find oil, they have to sell it to the government at $43 a barrell rather than $100 on the open market.
So they see the Falklands people and they get green eyed and jealous, then they want their precious. THEY WANTSSS IT, IT'S OUR'S ISN'T IT PRECIOUS, AND WE WANNTTS IT. BUT MASTER SAYS WE CAN'T HAVE IT.
@61 No congratulations and praise, please. Flippo did it all by himself. He's a natural. I'm not saying what sort of natural.
@62 Isolde. Why can't they stand losing? They should be used to it by now. Especially when they come up against Britain.
@65 it's because if you win, you're not a victim.
So that’s why they are always the victim,
They never win anything,
Not even tidily winks .
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