MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
Argentina February economic activity expands 5.2%, but surprises ahead for industry
Argentina's economy grew at an annual rate of 5.2% in February according to the country’s stats office Indec monthly economic activity report Emae, reflecting good performances in construction and manufacturing. But prospects for the industrial sector could have some surprises.
The Emae indicator rose 0.3% in seasonally adjusted terms from January, Indec added. Read full article
Comments
Disclaimer & comment rulesIt was not three months ago that the world media was talking about booming Brazil. Now everywhere I read Brazil has literally flatlined.
Apr 22nd, 2012 - 11:51 pm - Link - Report abuse 0How can such a sharp turn of events occur in such a short time??? There is something amiss here.
Argentina's economy grew at an annual rate of 5.2% in February.
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 12:32 am - Link - Report abuse 0At the same time the British economy is screwed with unprecedented levels of debt and with no way out.
@1
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 12:38 am - Link - Report abuse 0Figures are often misleading and rarely tell the real story. Shooting star effect? I don't know.
@2
I don't believe the British were mentioned in this article.
@2 Yes Marcos, unfortunately no one outside Argentina believes in INDEC's wildly optimistic figures. For example, they recently stated that you had an IQ of 100.
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 01:10 am - Link - Report abuse 0Thank to a surge in government spending in the run up to the election in October.
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 05:44 am - Link - Report abuse 0£7.oo. The going rate for an Argentinian vote.
Good gracious what a lie. The economy is in tailspin with no growth and high inflation. Their major trading partner is moving into recession and the only real export commodity volume is being lowered at every opportunity due to the drought. It is fantastical that anyone believes this, it is as inaccurate as the gov't inflation numbers.
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 12:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0High commodity prices, including for petroleum will subsidize the offset for awhile. Brazil can and will eventually require Argentina to comply with Mercosur agreements. The drought is really worrisome as it could truly harm the country economy, but the trade sanctions coming down the road will be like torture from 1,000 cuts....
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 01:08 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Did I read somewhere, that it's illegal in Argentina for the press to print any figures that disagree with those of the government?
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 01:30 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@1 Yeah. Dilma.
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 02:40 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@2 INDEC figures. Falsified, manipulated lies.
@8 Yep, that's true. Can't have anyone undermining “the big lie”.
Marcos seems to be very envious of people in the UK and the lives we lead. He spends all his time wishing he was living on these green and pleasant isles.
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 03:07 pm - Link - Report abuse 0... then he writes a little comment about the UK, regardless of the topic, just to remind us of his envy.
We are certain that if it were not for soy and wheat prices being so high, the parade would already be over. Wait till they turn the corner and start having to go uphill against the coming sanctions against targeted exports like olive oil, wine, and especially against finished goods. The pain will slowly start.
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 03:45 pm - Link - Report abuse 0(11) Chicureo
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 04:37 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I hate to ruin your “Shadenfreude” party but.................
Any eventual commercial sanctions from the EU against Argentinean exports will, even in the WORST CASE SCENARIO not be implemented earlier than 3 to 4 years from now.
That's the normal “time horizont” in the EU for complying with all the bureaucratic and legal requirements for the implementations of such sanctions.
If you can’t wait that long, I humbly suggest that you find another story to satisfy your low instincts ;-)
@12 Funny little boy. Perhaps you've forgotten that every EU member state is quite capable of taking independent action. Argieland IS going to die. Not before time. Sorry. I said I'd change its name. Shitland IS going to die.
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 04:55 pm - Link - Report abuse 0(11) Chicureo
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 05:44 pm - Link - Report abuse 0New development to water down your Shadenfreude party even further…….
Today, the 23/04/12, at noon, in Luxembourg, at a meeting of EEC Foreign Ministers, Mr. José Manuel García-Margallo, Spain’s Foreign Minister, said that Spain would stop all retaliatory measures against Argentina if Repsol gets an ”Adecuate” compensation” …..............
Meanwhile a veritable “stampede” of ex directors and other high functionaries from Repsol is abandoning Argentina in a hurry.
Many of their kids didn’t even say goodbye to their comrades at school…..
Seems to be, that the swift take over of Repsol’s offices by the Argentinean authorities really took them by surprise.
They didn’t have the time to remove their Double Accounting Books !!!
Poor inocent Multinational Oil Company....................
I heard Union workers are shooting at each other...talk about society falling apart. Strike after strike, huge increases in food, taxes, utilities and transport ...my my my.
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 05:49 pm - Link - Report abuse 0If I were a Repsol exec I wouldn't have waited this long, next thing you know the police will enter their house without a warrant...oh wait that happened yesterday. The only law in RGland is CFK and minions. Dictatorship at its best!!
Let's see...stagflation then depreciation..hyper inflation...depression.
Already in stage 1...
@15 ... then tree-bark soup, a glass of vinegary malbec-plonk and shoe for pudding.
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 06:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Ah Think: Of course you'd expect Spain’s Foreign Minister would declare a cessation of retaliatory measures against Argentina if Repsol gets an ”Adecuate” compensation” If they recover 50-70% of book value, its obvious. In business, you take your losses.
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 06:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Considering the KFC government does not seem to always play fair, I would pull out my expat executives as well.
Did you read the WSJ article today? It is eye opening! http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303592404577359432441570286.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
Truthfully Think, I'm looking forward to seeing another drama on the stage about your country. They say this woman is incredible: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303592404577359432441570286.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
Your down turn will not place your country into an economic depression and sanctions will only be felt marginally. But attracting investment capital, other than from China, will be dismal and if your currency goes into a free-fall, you will feel pain. Something I don't really wish to happen, but then again I won't feel sorry for your nation either.
17. I think you are dead wrong about the economy. It is heading into depression and all signs point to a long and extended downturn. There is not one industrial bright spot and no investment $ is going to make it even worse. I also think you are also wrong about the sanctions. All profit in Arg is derived from exports on mfg and agriculture products they lose money in their internal market. Farms and Mgs have been kept afloat solely on export revenue and peso depreciation.
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 07:15 pm - Link - Report abuse 0They are starting the most predictable financial crisis and I don't see any way out of if while CFK is ruling.
Ban Ki Moon, “What we need here is a new revolution.”
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 07:50 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Hillary Clinton, “Don't you mean, resolution.”
Ban Ki Moon, “I know what I mean!”
#18 There seems little sunshine for the Argentine economy. The Argentine Peso is way over valued and has no reserves to back the currency in international markets. Their central bank is directly controlled by CFK and she has used it unwisely as well as the pension funds. (We all thought that her husband committed suicide when he defaulted on Argentina's sovereign debt, but none of us anticipated a mad man from Venezuela bailing the country out.) The manner of the looting of YPF was unwise (See my posting from another theme below) which will eventually result in much of the international community punishing Argentina with sanctions. For the short term however, CFK gains an enormous YPF inflow of cash as well as generating more popular support.
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 08:19 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Argentina will be able to market their grains, petroleum and other commodities without any hindrance, but some finished goods will feel the increasing pain in several markets. Malbec wine will suffer in Europe and North America. Granted this is a miniscule part of the argentine economy, but not the automobile assembly industry, which will be sanctioned in some markets as well.
A best case scenario for my Andean brothers would be for China to enter with an enormous stake. They have the ability and it would be the solution, but then again it would require Argentina to crawl in bed with consequences they might not like.
(From an earlier post of mine) You can legally steal a company without getting your hands dirty... shareholders own the liabilities as well as the assets of the company. We know CFK and her husband needed to cover up all the under the table corruption involving YPF, but really if they had wanted to legally take total control without world wide outrage and sanctions they should have just bleed the company dry with increased taxes, regulations, and mandates.
High taxes would enable KFC's government to take the profit without having to contribute capital or own liabilities. Stronger strict new regulations w
@20 Chicureo. Out of curiosity, I checked the value of the Peso against the pound. 1 ars = 0.14 pence. Not good, is it.
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 08:40 pm - Link - Report abuse 0This is only the start of what will likely be end game for the Kirchner clan.
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 09:24 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Give it 12 months at most before a default even larger than ever before, we all know they are incapable of dealing with reality on any issue. The Falklands (there are no Malvinas) is a clear example of that.
INDEC - what a disgraceful organisation.
#21 If you want to see something amazing (and sad) see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_exchange_rates_of_Argentine_currency
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 09:34 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I disagree about whether Las Malvinas exist or not. Never never land existed and so did Shangri- La ... in certain idealistic minds...
20. The YPF cash flwo and U$ cash balance will get her through the winter, maybe, it all depends on how cold it gets, Remember they are an o/g importer and it has been a drain on their reserves. I don't see that changing anytime soon.
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 10:07 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The dye is set as I have said before its:
Stagflation...devaluation...hyper inflation...depression...I don't see any course other than the one they are on...
(20) Chicureo
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 10:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Would you please tell me how do you expect any serious response when your information about Argentinean current affairs, politics history is so 100% wrong?
First time I noticed you, was when you were telling in here that it was the wife of Vice-president Boudou that had denounced him…….
(In face of overwhelming evidence, you backtracked on that later)
Now, you say:
““We all thought that her husband committed suicide when he defaulted on Argentina's sovereign debt………..””
I say:
You (all) are aware that Argentina defaulted; thats always something.
But..; are you (all) aware that Argentina defaulted during the end of 2001 and the beginning of 2002?
And are you (all) aware that Nestor Kirchner assumed the presidency of Argentina in May of 2003.
Are you (all) may be quick enough to be aware that that means that Nestor Kirchner assumed the presidency of Argentina nearly 2 (two) years after the Argentinean default?
But, at least you are good fun for talking un-seriously about size of feet, wine, women and other inocuous platitudes......
Think,
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 10:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Boudou: I explained that I had earlier read an erroneous report and immediately corrected myself the same day.
Default: The actual economic crisis perhaps began in 2000/2001 and Argentina defaulted on part of its external debt at the beginning of 2002. Néstor Kirchner took office as the new president on May 2003 so I again admit that I was wrong.
Kirchner was an angel and did everything possible to honestly re-pay all the debtors that ended up with near worthless Argentine bonds. Does that make it easier to sleep at night.
I guess for accuracy I could have posted that the Kirchners belong to the fraternal political mafia of Argentina that a decade ago successfully swindled from investors over 100 billion dollars.
Restating my erroneous statement: “We all thought that her husband committed suicide when he allowed the treasury to continue defaulting on Argentina's sovereign debt………..”
Did you see the WSJ and NYT articles?
(26) Chicureo
Apr 23rd, 2012 - 11:10 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I did...
Nothing new on them...
Same old, same old... since 2001...
Not even anything about feet, wine or women ...
The NYT article was about an incredible diminutive Argentine actress that has the critics spellbound in her portrayal of Evita both in NY and London.
Apr 24th, 2012 - 01:39 am - Link - Report abuse 0You got me there.....
Apr 24th, 2012 - 04:32 am - Link - Report abuse 0How small are her feets?
Or better yet, how big are her teets.... ;-)
Think: I would say very small as her stature is less than 152cm. Apparently she has a 2m presence on the stage. Today's El Mercurio, Economic section: “UE advierte que Argentina sufrirá ”durante mucho tiempo“ las consecuencias por YPF” emol.com
Apr 24th, 2012 - 11:46 am - Link - Report abuse 0I would suggest that you take the INDEC figures, add the very “private” figures given by the very neutral (chuckle) contributors here at Mercopress, then divide.
Apr 24th, 2012 - 06:26 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You'd be at or near the truth then.
Oh, an Argie girl with feet tinier than a Chilean girl? What's this world coming to! Obviously, she has no relation to me or my girl cousin.
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