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Argentina moving closer to recession according to latest indicators

Wednesday, June 6th 2012 - 23:35 UTC
Full article 52 comments
Auto sales to Brazil have dropped 30% so far this year Auto sales to Brazil have dropped 30% so far this year

Strong symptoms of a slowdown of the Argentine economy, possibly leading to recession, have been confirmed by Torcuato Di Tella University's, UTDT, closely watched leading indicators.

Those indicators have fallen for a sixth consecutive month in April, while the odds that the economy enters recession soared to 98%. When those odds surpass 95%, the Argentine economy has historically suffered a recession within six months, UTDT said in a report.

UTDT diffusion index was steady at 40% in April, indicating only four of the 10 series that constitute the index were in expansion while the other six contracted. The biggest declines were noted in the stock market and construction activity.

Recent economic data are hardly encouraging. The auto industry, Argentina's largest manufacturing sector, reported that production in May fell 24.4% on the year to 60,206 vehicles and exports plunged 45% reaching 28.650 units.

The auto industry is one of the pillars of the Argentine economy mainly because of the strong demand from overseas, particularly Brazil. So far this year sales to Brazil have dropped 30.6% compared to the same period in 2011.

The Car Manufacturers Association of Argentina, Adefa, said that in the first five months of 2012, auto production reached 278.815 units, which represents a 10.5% drop, while exports have plunged 26,5% in the same period to 143.587 units according to.

Adefa president Viktor Klima said that data is showing a re-accommodation of markets globally and anticipated that “diversification of markets becomes essential”.


Categories: Economy, Argentina.

Top Comments

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  • Truth_Telling_Troll

    What Mercopress fails to context is that the EU has plunged back into recession, the USA has stalled to 0 growth, Brazil has been in recession, China is in its largest slowdown in 15 years, etc.

    At some point, the ineptitude of growth of the rest of the world was going to be exported here.

    Jun 06th, 2012 - 11:41 pm 0
  • yankeeboy

    Yeah but only Argentina and Venezuela has 30% inflation and recession. STAGFLATION which will make your stupid Prez print more Pesos which will lead to hyper inflation which will lead to mass unemployment and finally depression.
    The road is clearly mapped as I have been saying for as long as I have been posting here.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 12:16 am 0
  • AmericanLight

    What happened to the 30 percent growth?
    The US grows, slowly but grows but you cannot expect the largest economy in the world to grow double digits and compare to smaller economies.
    Just like when used to compare 100 million dollars stores growing 10 pcr per year (10 million) vs 25 million dollar stores growing 30 percent (7.5 mill)... The percent makes it look bigger... I did too when I had to present my pnl to my svp I would use even basis points to make the growth look bigger and would use regular pct to show losses

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 01:24 am 0
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