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Argentine economy forecasted to enter recession in second half, but could still end 2012 positive

Wednesday, July 4th 2012 - 23:21 UTC
Full article 25 comments

The odds that Argentina's economy will enter a recession in the second half of this year held above 95% for a second consecutive month in the closely followed monthly leading indicator published by Torcuato Di Tella University, UTDT. Read full article

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  • Joe Bloggs

    Surely not!

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 12:10 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • cLOHO

    Its all good :) couldnt see that happening with 30% inflation and having to raid the national bank for foreign currency. No its all rosey in RG land.

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 07:01 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Guzz

    cLOHO
    Why don't you fellows spend as much time on your own economy as you do on Argentinas. You guys have a youth unemployment of some 25% in EU, a mass emmigration of companies heading for China and a budget that is never held, leading to more and more debt each and every year.

    Mayhap is hurts less talking about Argentinam but you guys are in really deep shite...

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 08:00 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • British_Kirchnerist

    I'm confident that whatever the current, externally caused difficulties, Argentina will come out the other end to resume a strong performance if it steadfastly sticks to Cristina's model. Austerity would only prolong the problem, as it has in Europe

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 10:24 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Welsh Wizard

    3 Guzz

    Don't worry chap, we do. It's in teh news all the time but as we're on a website that reporst Arentinean news, we'll stick to commenting on...Argentinean news.

    In other news, Car production fell 34.4% and exports fell 36.1% in June

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 10:52 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Guzz

    Then, Welsh Wiz, what makes you think we should follow your examples when it's quite clear that you haven't got the slightest idea on how to rule your own economy?

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 11:03 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    After a real INDEC audit they will find that Arg went into recession Nov11. Ii appears “recession” is going to be a very mild term for what is coming in just a little bit down the road.
    The recent layoffs are just the beginning of a long slog downward to a full depression.
    If this cold snap lasts for at least 3 weeks it will hasten the inevitable and they won't make it until Spring like CFK is hoping.
    Stagflation will bring Hyper Inflation then depression. No way to turn it around now.

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 12:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • EnginnerAbroad

    Recesion in itself is not a masisve problem. What is a problem is entering a recison with high inflation. This eliminates the posisbility of physical easing. Which leads to stagflation. CFK is not a economist and neither is any of her cronies she is hopelessly out of her depth in the same way as Isabella Peron was.

    @4 you are pulling our legs right? I mean do you really believe the garbage that leaves your own mouth? CFKs government is spending recklessly and without the captial funds to abck it up. http://en.mercopress.com/2012/07/05/argentina-s-top-20-banks-will-have-to-lend-for-investment-says-cfk.
    Why do you think is is needed? Becuase the government doesnt have any money they spent it all and a long time ago starting with Eva Peron.

    Soverign debt is not a problem in itself, it is the amount of debt you have in relation to your assests. I.E. who is poorer a Unemployed man with no assets with a debt of $5,000 or the multmilionaire with a debt of $100,000?

    The European model is not perfect but on the whole the difference is the European models adopt to the situation where as the Argentine governments attitude is to bury there heads in the sand, whistle loudly and pretend nothing is happening. Why else would they continually lie about the true level of inflation.

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 01:16 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Welsh Wizard

    6 Guzz

    Fair point. I suppose I would say that you should follow our examples so that you could be a AAA rated country, you could issue debt without worrying that all the proceeds are going to be confiscated adn so that you could have inflation at 2.8%p/a

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 01:19 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Simon68

    9 Welsh Wizard (#)

    You are describing paradise!!!

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 02:46 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    I am curious what the July inflation figure will turn out to be, basic food basket is up 9% m/o/m and 7% for auto gas. That is a HUGE increase for 1 month.
    I think the K economic model will be studied as a case on how to ruin an economy in 8 short years!
    and I mean RUIN
    I don't see any way out of this
    Thank goodness I am watching from 13 hrs a way by plane. It is going get awful there very very soon.

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 04:57 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Guzz

    Welsh Wiz
    Following that plan would mean that 1st of all we establish Banco del Sur (done, but for developing countries only) worldwide, then we rate ourselves AAA and yourselves BB+, finally we tell you what you need to do in order to get access to the lending. Great plan, but we aren't parasites, we opt for another solution, a more inclusive one...

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 06:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    Guzz, Have all the countries made their cap contributions to fund the bank?

    I think there is only U$7B in assets now which doesn't give it much lending capabilities. At that meager level I don't think it would even be in the top 100 banks in the USA!

    So I wouldn't be counting on it to bail out anyone anytime soon.

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 06:18 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Guzz

    Well yanqui, Brazil is yet to ratify it, isn't she? I bet Dilma is the right woman for the job :)

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 07:42 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    So the largest, wealthiest member hasn't officially joined yet? Has it been capitalized at all because most of the U$7B was supposed to come from Arg and Brazil and at this point Arg can's spare a pesito

    Looks like another SA dream is dying..

    I don't have as much respect for Dilma as some here. I think she is out of her depth, certainly not as bad as CFK or Pepe, but not worthy of the job. We will see how Brazil does as the economy continues to slow/stalls. It will be interesting to watch how the relationship to Arg and Brazil changes as Arg goes down the crapper with only Brazil to bail it out. Yes interesting....

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 07:51 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Guzz

    yanqui
    Think the final amount is some 20B$, with Arg, Ven and Bra contributing the same each, and Par, Uru contributing a symbolic amount in comparison.

    What are you on about, Cristina is lovely, telling you your truths :)
    Pepe is a wise old man, leading by example
    Chavez is good man, first one to admit his own errors
    Evo is a man with visions that we might not comprehend, but they all agree on a more sustainable way of living.
    The list is long, yanqui, we are surrounded by the PEOPLE :)

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 08:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • KFC de Pollo

    @4 KFC doesn't have any model she's making it up as she goes along and has long alienated ole' nestors friends.

    her time is thankfully coming to a close.

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 11:52 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Conor

    But.....but, but this impossible, Mr Malvinero1 assured that it was UK that was finished and going done! How could he be wrong?!

    My turn now Mr Malvinero1:
    Argentina is finished!!!!!!!
    Broken morally, socially economically!!!!!!
    Inflation kicking in!!!!!!!
    Get out of Argentine while you still can!!!!!!
    Ja ja ja !!!!!!!

    Jul 06th, 2012 - 06:03 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • British_Kirchnerist

    #16 Brilliant Guzz =)

    Jul 06th, 2012 - 12:19 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Simon68

    Guzz:
    The Banco del Sur WAS a good idea, it would have been marvelous to be out from under the solid power of the dollar, and be able to find finacial relief within our own sphere of influence, BUT the whole thing depended on the integrating countries putting up CASH. At this time:
    Argentina cannot put up a centavo.
    Brasil can but won't.
    Venezuela can't put up anything but words.
    Paraguay has been insulted by the rest of the integrants so...
    Uruguay might put up her share.
    There is no way we can reach the 20 billion dollars, so it was a great dream but that was all it was.

    Jul 06th, 2012 - 03:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    Simon, South Americans ( esp Bolivarian Socialists) have always made HUGE announcements only to have them die on the vine. Remember the bullet train from Rosario to BA? The World Trade Center tallest bldg in SA built on reclaimed land in front of Puerto Madero?

    Chavez, Evo, Humal, CFK (&Nestor) nothing but hot air ruining their respective countries FOR THE PEOPLE.
    It is an embarrassment...and sad for the people who get poorer and dumber year over year.

    Jul 06th, 2012 - 03:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Simon68

    21 yankeeboy (#):

    “Bolivarian Socialists” is a contradiction in terms!!!

    Simón Bolívar was a staunch conservative whose image of United South America was the US of A.

    He would have been horrified by what Chavez and his ilk are doing in his name!!!

    Jul 06th, 2012 - 04:20 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Guzz

    Last thing you can call Simon Bolivar is conservative :)

    Jul 06th, 2012 - 05:32 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Simon68

    23 Guzz (#)

    Learn a bit of regional history, Bolívar was a Conservative the same as San Martín and the O'Higgins family.

    All the Libertadores were conservatives, that is why they tried to unite the South American states, what they sould have done was start a monarchy, which would have stableized a United South America.

    Jul 06th, 2012 - 05:42 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Guzz

    The idea of a united south ameroca is not a conservative idea, rather the complete opposite. This men you mention fought the establishment of their time, true revolutionaries they were. You are trying to change history so it fits your arguments :)

    Jul 06th, 2012 - 06:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0

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