MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

First time in US presidential race history that no candidates are WASP

Kennedy and Obama two milestones (Photo AP)

Argentine political analyst and historian Rosendo Fraga writes about the US presidential elections and their global impact, plus underlining some interesting facts about the country’s population and religion trends and their impacts.

Fraga says that if the world voted in the US presidential election, Barack Obama would receive four votes for each of Mitt Romney.

This according to a survey from Gallup International in thirty countries, with 60% of those interviewed expressing an interest in the outcome of the 6 November vote.

Russia which is almost on the average (81% and 19%) showed 83% voting for Obama and 19% for Romney. The highest Obama support, 95%, comes from German, Dutch, Portuguese, Iceland, Irish and Danish voters.

Romney’s option is high in Israel, 65%, Pakistan, 44% and Georgia, 36%. Four years ago when the Obama defeated McCain the Democrat candidate had four votes to one for the Republican, and when George W Bush with Kerry (2004) the relation was almost the same.

The last three US elections have become global thanks to improved communications and this has enabled through surveys to have a feeling in the rest of the world.

In the 2008 primaries when Hilary Clinton competed against Obama, world interest came through the television. The strong support for Obama is similar to that from the minorities in the US, which means Latinos and Afro-Americans prefer him by seven to three.

Given the demographics some US analysts believe 2012 could be the last presidential election to be won by a classic Republican. The growing Latino population, with a higher birth rate and immigration anticipate a significant increase in new voters in coming years.

Television debates in US presidential races have helped change the result of two out of nine elections. The first debate was in 1960 between John F Kennedy and Richard Nixon. Kennedy became president by a tight margin of 200.000 votes because of his better performance in the debates.

The second time was in 2000 when Bush Jr defeated Al Gore, the favourite candidate since he had been Bill Clinton’s Vice president. Bush’s television performance helped him win in a much contested and controversial election, with a few votes in Florida and the intervention of the Supreme Court.

In the current dispute, the winner in the first debate was Romney who appeared more determined and prepared. The second round went for Obama and in the last debate, the US president managed a few points distance.

But if Obama finally wins it will be the first time a US president does so with a weak economy and high unemployment which remembers the Depression of the thirties. Although Obama inherited a crisis he did not cause and which started before he took office, after four years in the White House it is hard to keep blaming the previous administration.

With unemployment above 8% for the last 44 months Romney can blame his rival for lack of results in the economy. Despite a slight fall in unemployment Obama was unable to get the full message across during the debate.

Nevertheless there are real changes in the US political scenario.

Until Kennedy no president which was not white, protestant and Anglo-Saxon had reached the White House, but that changed. Likewise with Obama: the first Afro-American to be elected president in 240 years of that country’s history.

This election is also the first in which the four members of the two presidential tickets are not WASP (white, Anglo-Saxon, protestant). Of the 44 US presidents only two (Kennedy and Obama) did not have that characterization which is extensive to most of those who have predominance in economic and political powers in the US.

Furthermore stats show that for the firs time Protestants are less than 50% of the US population. This happens when the two Vice president candidates are Catholic, Biden and Ryan, and Romney is a Mormon which is considered a sect of Christian origin.