China surpassed the US to become the world's biggest trading nation last year as measured by the sum of exports and imports of goods, a milestone in the Asian nation's challenge to the US dominance in global commerce. Read full article
”The Emperor Qianlong told King George III in a 1793 letter that “we possess all things. I set no value on objects strange or ingenious, and I have no use for your country's manufactures.”
Now which troll that expounds on autarky does this sound like?
China's biggest problem is that it is not innovating. Being the world's sweatshop doesn't help it to break through the middle income trap.
Additionally, China's demographics are nothing but disasterous. The fall in its youth cohort to the same level of Japan is telling for a much poorer country. Not to mention that its working age cohort is just about to start a very fast decline.
China will be big. China will be important. But China will not be rich before it grows old.
China graduates 600000 new engineers every year, their research and development is world class their financing system is bloated with foreign reserves and their willingness and ability to back new projects is unstoppable.
They already are the worlds biggest economy, no doubt, the US tops the list only because of all the financial derivatives, stocks, bonds, and other wall st. shenanigans. These are just numbers on a monitor and do nothing to make America stronger in fact they are destroying the United States. China on the other hand is doing a version of what made America great trading with everyone and making and selling real stuff.
With almost 2 billion people....surprise , surprise. The number one population SHOULD be the number one economy, it's only logical. Now, will China balance some regulations and deal with their environment that is now becoming their neighbors problems too.
it has nothing to do with the 2 billons stinky chinese assholes....
the USA corporations moved their business to China....
most of everything in the USA has a label made in China
I don't buy NOTHING made in China
It will all work until there is a Revolution. It reminds me of the 80s with Japan taking over, 00s Russia taking over 10s Brazil taking over yada yada yada
Nobody suggested that the only path is for Japan, Russia, China, India, Brazil to overtake the USA. It will be the USA undertaking Japan, Russia, China, India, Brazil LOL! We already see it now:
50 years ago you could have surpluses by tweaking discretionary spending, today you have to plunge your economy to a massive depression by cutting all essentials and military to achieve the same.
50 years ago you were a net creditor, now you are world's biggest net debtor.
50 years ago you were 50% of world's GDP, now you are 19% and falling.
50 years ago you dominated world culture. Now no one follows US music, and Hollywood's grip is slowly eroding.
50 years ago you could put men into space, now you hitch rides with Ruskies.
50 years ago you had rising middle class and incomes, now you have falling middle class and incomes
So none of those nations need to catch UP. They'll just catch YOU on the way DOWN. ;)
Nice attempt at nonsense Tobi. Along with all of those engineers they're graduating and all of the other wonderful things going on in China, they have 40 million people living in caves and ~600 million people living on $2/day. Can that many people be brought into the Chinese middle class organically? Maybe, but not likely. Let's say a third of them can be. That leaves 400 million have-nots. How much government spending is going to be necessary to get that many people into the middle class, $3000/person, $4000/person? Then, you're talking in the trillions of dollars of government spending. I know the world desperately wants China to become the new world power, but not everything is coming up roses there.
Have we ever wanted to have anything to do with the USA? Check our history.
By far most anti-USnation in the Americas!
@7
I never have said things in China are rad. Or in any of the other countries. But the difference is the USA. China, Brazil, India, Russia had many of the same problems back then as today, but they actually have improved.
The USA had few of the problems it has today, and their stats are getting WORSE.
My assessment may hurt some egos, but no one can dispute the points I made @6.
The why is your government pushing to sell the USA bife and limons? You last assessment from mendoza hurts no ones egos as your opinion is meaningless from the valley of grapejuice, mendoza.
Rad Tobi? Umm, this isn't 1989. You may want to start a Netflix subscription to get some more up-to-date American movies so you know which slang to use. Got it sock hop?
No kidding, that's why I used quotations. You know, if you remember your language class (if you went to it), quotations can be used to highlight that something is used in sarcasm, irony, or misplaced in the context.
Because they are weak minded people that like brands so they go to Miami to shop at the outlet malls there for brand jeans and sneakers, and electronics. They come back with carts of stuff, and some do trips to re-sell stuff here. I know a couple of people that do that.
I don't buy anything American or European so I don't understand that compulsion.
The big problem facing China is the growing wage bill because the present workers realise they have been had by 'entrepreneurs' not paying them commensurate with the profits.
Quality, or the lack of it, has seen some companies in the UK bringing production back home due to customer complaints. This was the case with one of the best known companies in Birmingham but came too late to save the migration of customers to other companies in the UK who did not move to China.
That is the thing about quality. Those who know what they want ensure they are supplied it with the cost coming along as an agreed item.
Lots of mfg is coming back to the USA too due to our cheap nat gas/electricity and quality.
China worked for awhile, then it didn't I don't see them inventing too much that we want just acting as beasts of burden like every other mfg country.
I would rather invent the ipad than mfg it any day.
@18 ChrisR
Correct! Chinese labour arbitrage is falling. The increase in labour costs together with transport means places like Mexico and some parts of Eastern Europe are cheaper.
@3 Captain Poppy
China doesn't have 2 billion people. It is just over 1.3 billion. It will peak in the next... oh 10-15 years and then fall. The lowest UN estimate puts China's 2100 population at ~800 million. However even that seems a bit optimistic after the last census.
Indeed China is ageing FASTER than Japan did. And look at where Japan has been stuck for the last 20 years as its population aged and grew even more risk adverse.
But you are right, the US helped create the ability for other nations to rise. China is growing because of the international trading and political architecture. Soon it will have to assume its rightful place in supporting this.
@2 Chilean Perspective
China might churn out more engineers than anyone else but they are not employable. Quantity does not equate to quality. The Chinese education system by its very nature does not engender free thinking and innovation. Such traits are dangerous to a government that depends on the status quo. But vital to innovation.
And as for China growth statistics, they are are suspect as Argentina's. Look up alternative growth indicators like credit and electricity usage and they don't match up with the hype. China's growth has been partial built on credit and no one even knows the true size of government debt. Some estimates have it HIGHER than the US.
And while foreign reserves are nice and high, they can't be used because they will affect their currency which will skyrocket and with an exporting mercantilist economy, that would pretty much crash it.
China will be a big economy but is heading for the middle income trap. Chile is currently reorientating to avoid this issue itself. Much more successfully I'll add.
It could be worse, it could be slipping out if it like Argentina.
@ 7 jakesnake.
My name is TCP not Tobi.
Firstly we must put China's development into context. Den Xiaoping began the arduous task of integrating the former world's number one economy back into the global fold very recently signing the historic accords with Jimmy carter on the 31st January 1979.
China's growth since then has been unprecedented in human history, launching almost 400 million people out of poverty and creating the worlds highest number of rich people in only a few decades. The level of wealth transfer we are witnessing will go down in the annals of history as the human race's most important social achievement and by the time it has wound down in another 30 or 40 years we will have a power that will eclipse all that has come before it.
This process has produced almost incredible numbers in every field. It must be noted that the government is run by engineers not lawyers as in most western countries.
1. They are quadrupling the number of graduates every year.
2. Foreign reserves of a staggering 3.4 Trillion US Dollars, this is about 700 billion more than all the money in circulation in the USA. Yes every bank, every money box, every cash register, every wallet and purse (have I blown your mind yet?)
3. Infrastructure projects that are focused on growth and progress and not focused primarily on environmental issues, they get things done.
4. A new power plant is connected to the grid every 5 days, guaranteeing their capability for growth.
There are many, many more but I won't bore you, suffice to say that if they were to float the Yuan it would probably appreciate from 6 to 1 against the US dollar to 1 to 1. After all the US is technically bankrupt with total assets of 93 trillion and liabilities of a staggering 122 trillion.The government alone has a debt of 16.5 trillion and has no hope of ever paying it off since it only collects 2.4 trillion in revenues. Not to mention the interest which is 3.3 trillion and growing.
Yep, I know who Tobi is trust me. I should have used the @ in front of, and then split, my reply. And I'm very familiar with Chinese history, both current and 20th Century, but I appreciate your input.
Comments
Disclaimer & comment rules”The Emperor Qianlong told King George III in a 1793 letter that “we possess all things. I set no value on objects strange or ingenious, and I have no use for your country's manufactures.”
Feb 15th, 2013 - 06:39 am - Link - Report abuse 0Now which troll that expounds on autarky does this sound like?
China's biggest problem is that it is not innovating. Being the world's sweatshop doesn't help it to break through the middle income trap.
Additionally, China's demographics are nothing but disasterous. The fall in its youth cohort to the same level of Japan is telling for a much poorer country. Not to mention that its working age cohort is just about to start a very fast decline.
China will be big. China will be important. But China will not be rich before it grows old.
China graduates 600000 new engineers every year, their research and development is world class their financing system is bloated with foreign reserves and their willingness and ability to back new projects is unstoppable.
Feb 15th, 2013 - 08:04 am - Link - Report abuse 0They already are the worlds biggest economy, no doubt, the US tops the list only because of all the financial derivatives, stocks, bonds, and other wall st. shenanigans. These are just numbers on a monitor and do nothing to make America stronger in fact they are destroying the United States. China on the other hand is doing a version of what made America great trading with everyone and making and selling real stuff.
With almost 2 billion people....surprise , surprise. The number one population SHOULD be the number one economy, it's only logical. Now, will China balance some regulations and deal with their environment that is now becoming their neighbors problems too.
Feb 15th, 2013 - 11:09 am - Link - Report abuse 0it has nothing to do with the 2 billons stinky chinese assholes....
Feb 15th, 2013 - 02:44 pm - Link - Report abuse 0the USA corporations moved their business to China....
most of everything in the USA has a label made in China
I don't buy NOTHING made in China
It will all work until there is a Revolution. It reminds me of the 80s with Japan taking over, 00s Russia taking over 10s Brazil taking over yada yada yada
Feb 15th, 2013 - 02:57 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You can't even breath in Beijing.
Just give enough time to implode.
Nobody suggested that the only path is for Japan, Russia, China, India, Brazil to overtake the USA. It will be the USA undertaking Japan, Russia, China, India, Brazil LOL! We already see it now:
Feb 15th, 2013 - 03:15 pm - Link - Report abuse 050 years ago you could have surpluses by tweaking discretionary spending, today you have to plunge your economy to a massive depression by cutting all essentials and military to achieve the same.
50 years ago you were a net creditor, now you are world's biggest net debtor.
50 years ago you were 50% of world's GDP, now you are 19% and falling.
50 years ago you dominated world culture. Now no one follows US music, and Hollywood's grip is slowly eroding.
50 years ago you could put men into space, now you hitch rides with Ruskies.
50 years ago you had rising middle class and incomes, now you have falling middle class and incomes
So none of those nations need to catch UP. They'll just catch YOU on the way DOWN. ;)
Nice attempt at nonsense Tobi. Along with all of those engineers they're graduating and all of the other wonderful things going on in China, they have 40 million people living in caves and ~600 million people living on $2/day. Can that many people be brought into the Chinese middle class organically? Maybe, but not likely. Let's say a third of them can be. That leaves 400 million have-nots. How much government spending is going to be necessary to get that many people into the middle class, $3000/person, $4000/person? Then, you're talking in the trillions of dollars of government spending. I know the world desperately wants China to become the new world power, but not everything is coming up roses there.
Feb 15th, 2013 - 03:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0It only shows that other nations are coming to sit with the USA and rgenturd is not one of them lol
Feb 15th, 2013 - 03:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@8
Feb 15th, 2013 - 03:38 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Have we ever wanted to have anything to do with the USA? Check our history.
By far most anti-USnation in the Americas!
@7
I never have said things in China are rad. Or in any of the other countries. But the difference is the USA. China, Brazil, India, Russia had many of the same problems back then as today, but they actually have improved.
The USA had few of the problems it has today, and their stats are getting WORSE.
My assessment may hurt some egos, but no one can dispute the points I made @6.
The why is your government pushing to sell the USA bife and limons? You last assessment from mendoza hurts no ones egos as your opinion is meaningless from the valley of grapejuice, mendoza.
Feb 15th, 2013 - 03:42 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Rad Tobi? Umm, this isn't 1989. You may want to start a Netflix subscription to get some more up-to-date American movies so you know which slang to use. Got it sock hop?
Feb 15th, 2013 - 03:50 pm - Link - Report abuse 0No kidding, that's why I used quotations. You know, if you remember your language class (if you went to it), quotations can be used to highlight that something is used in sarcasm, irony, or misplaced in the context.
Feb 15th, 2013 - 04:17 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Again, nice try Tobi. You're an excellent tryer. You're an amusing little dude.
Feb 15th, 2013 - 04:22 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@9 hahahahaha. Check not history, but TODAY! Argentines are one of the top ten citizens to apply for U.S. visas IN THE WOOOORLD!!!!!!
Feb 15th, 2013 - 06:04 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@14
Feb 15th, 2013 - 06:34 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Yes it is called tourism, you IDIOT!
Why do they want to come to the evil empire?
Feb 15th, 2013 - 07:15 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Because they are weak minded people that like brands so they go to Miami to shop at the outlet malls there for brand jeans and sneakers, and electronics. They come back with carts of stuff, and some do trips to re-sell stuff here. I know a couple of people that do that.
Feb 15th, 2013 - 07:20 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I don't buy anything American or European so I don't understand that compulsion.
The big problem facing China is the growing wage bill because the present workers realise they have been had by 'entrepreneurs' not paying them commensurate with the profits.
Feb 15th, 2013 - 07:38 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Quality, or the lack of it, has seen some companies in the UK bringing production back home due to customer complaints. This was the case with one of the best known companies in Birmingham but came too late to save the migration of customers to other companies in the UK who did not move to China.
That is the thing about quality. Those who know what they want ensure they are supplied it with the cost coming along as an agreed item.
Lots of mfg is coming back to the USA too due to our cheap nat gas/electricity and quality.
Feb 15th, 2013 - 08:07 pm - Link - Report abuse 0China worked for awhile, then it didn't I don't see them inventing too much that we want just acting as beasts of burden like every other mfg country.
I would rather invent the ipad than mfg it any day.
Yankee the bureacracy and logistics area also becoming a quagmire for manufacturers there as well.
Feb 15th, 2013 - 09:23 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@18 ChrisR
Feb 15th, 2013 - 09:24 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Correct! Chinese labour arbitrage is falling. The increase in labour costs together with transport means places like Mexico and some parts of Eastern Europe are cheaper.
@3 Captain Poppy
China doesn't have 2 billion people. It is just over 1.3 billion. It will peak in the next... oh 10-15 years and then fall. The lowest UN estimate puts China's 2100 population at ~800 million. However even that seems a bit optimistic after the last census.
Indeed China is ageing FASTER than Japan did. And look at where Japan has been stuck for the last 20 years as its population aged and grew even more risk adverse.
But you are right, the US helped create the ability for other nations to rise. China is growing because of the international trading and political architecture. Soon it will have to assume its rightful place in supporting this.
@2 Chilean Perspective
China might churn out more engineers than anyone else but they are not employable. Quantity does not equate to quality. The Chinese education system by its very nature does not engender free thinking and innovation. Such traits are dangerous to a government that depends on the status quo. But vital to innovation.
And as for China growth statistics, they are are suspect as Argentina's. Look up alternative growth indicators like credit and electricity usage and they don't match up with the hype. China's growth has been partial built on credit and no one even knows the true size of government debt. Some estimates have it HIGHER than the US.
And while foreign reserves are nice and high, they can't be used because they will affect their currency which will skyrocket and with an exporting mercantilist economy, that would pretty much crash it.
China will be a big economy but is heading for the middle income trap. Chile is currently reorientating to avoid this issue itself. Much more successfully I'll add.
It could be worse, it could be slipping out if it like Argentina.
Correct, I kn ow that. I tend to round and in the case when you are talking billions, the result is not good.
Feb 15th, 2013 - 10:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@ 7 jakesnake.
Feb 15th, 2013 - 10:42 pm - Link - Report abuse 0My name is TCP not Tobi.
Firstly we must put China's development into context. Den Xiaoping began the arduous task of integrating the former world's number one economy back into the global fold very recently signing the historic accords with Jimmy carter on the 31st January 1979.
China's growth since then has been unprecedented in human history, launching almost 400 million people out of poverty and creating the worlds highest number of rich people in only a few decades. The level of wealth transfer we are witnessing will go down in the annals of history as the human race's most important social achievement and by the time it has wound down in another 30 or 40 years we will have a power that will eclipse all that has come before it.
This process has produced almost incredible numbers in every field. It must be noted that the government is run by engineers not lawyers as in most western countries.
1. They are quadrupling the number of graduates every year.
2. Foreign reserves of a staggering 3.4 Trillion US Dollars, this is about 700 billion more than all the money in circulation in the USA. Yes every bank, every money box, every cash register, every wallet and purse (have I blown your mind yet?)
3. Infrastructure projects that are focused on growth and progress and not focused primarily on environmental issues, they get things done.
4. A new power plant is connected to the grid every 5 days, guaranteeing their capability for growth.
There are many, many more but I won't bore you, suffice to say that if they were to float the Yuan it would probably appreciate from 6 to 1 against the US dollar to 1 to 1. After all the US is technically bankrupt with total assets of 93 trillion and liabilities of a staggering 122 trillion.The government alone has a debt of 16.5 trillion and has no hope of ever paying it off since it only collects 2.4 trillion in revenues. Not to mention the interest which is 3.3 trillion and growing.
Yep, I know who Tobi is trust me. I should have used the @ in front of, and then split, my reply. And I'm very familiar with Chinese history, both current and 20th Century, but I appreciate your input.
Feb 15th, 2013 - 10:53 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Commenting for this story is now closed.
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