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Unpleasant surprises for the Uruguayan economy predicts a US financial group

Wednesday, May 1st 2013 - 02:18 UTC
Full article 22 comments

A serious deterioration is taking place under the surface of the Uruguayan economy and when the current inflow of foreign capital reverts, the country is going to suffer unpleasant shocks with a strong rise in the price of the US dollar and an increase in inflation, according to a report from the US based BCP Securities. Read full article

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  • mastershakejb

    I sold my land in Uruguay to an Aussie at the very end of 2011/very beginning of 2012. Perfect timing, sold at the very peak, just before the downturn.

    May 01st, 2013 - 03:55 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Stevie

    These yanquis are desperate :)
    We notice the offesive, and we understand their need.

    It wont help though.

    Sorry yanquis :)

    May 01st, 2013 - 08:03 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    Ah!
    You “Te lo Empomaste” nice the poor Aussie eh!

    Anyway not even a good news even from Uruguay. Mercopress ah! why i'm not surprised?

    Now MP you should try with good news from UK and FI.
    Ah! there are any?

    No “problema” boys, here Dany to the rescue.

    Britain breaking news!
    Booming economy back in UK, 200 beds and 3 tables for accommodation will be made in backyards slums in London next years providing new jobs and..... bla, bla, bla

    Moby Dick Sawle MLA, bough a new pair of socks to be used next time to visit Willy Hague. The investment will rise current GDP and bring new jobs to FI

    Pic here
    http://www.stouenschurch.org.je/content/pages/uploaded_images/193.jpg

    ufff”! its really hard to think in good news for these places at the moment sorry.

    May 01st, 2013 - 08:12 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • HO

    Uruguay's domestic industry is protected with huge duties on imports. The industry is not competitive at all on a global level. Products are of poor quality but still sell, because cheaper than imports.
    The country's boom was based to a large extent on construction, Argentines building in Punta del Este and getting their wealth out of Argentina. This is over. The real estate market is dead!
    Uruguay has nothing else to offer to the world than agricultural products. What if those prices plummet? Good night!
    Prices of goods and services in the country are extremely high, even higher when adjusted to the poor quality. And the quality of services is poor. Employees are not motivated, they care a shit about the client. A result of indexing salaries and a labor law that gives the employee extreme power.
    Taxes in different areas have increased steadily in the last couple of years. So has the number of state employees who traditionally support the leftist government.
    Infrastructure investment by the state is very low. Where does all that tax money go?
    So where is Uruguay heading?
    There is a saying: 'When Argentina coughs, Uruguay will suffer from pneumonia'.
    What if Argentina suffers from pneumonia?
    Uruguay did not manage to open, liberalize and strengthen its economy in the good times. Under the current leftist government the opposite was the case.
    The price for neglecting the rules of a free market will be paid in the bad times ahead. It will be high!
    History repeats itself. Think back to the Argentina crisis in 2001!

    May 01st, 2013 - 10:01 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Stevie

    Comment removed by the editor.

    May 01st, 2013 - 10:58 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Conqueror

    @5 Couldn't think of anything better, eh? No facts and figues to show how “HO” is wrong? But then, you rarely have anything except wild statements, do you?

    May 01st, 2013 - 12:29 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Stevie

    conqueror
    You could as well throw some phrases of the bible at me.
    I would most certainly not feel the need to disprove any of it.
    And the fact that there are plenty of people that believes in those fairy tales is nothing I can do anything about, but laugh...

    May 01st, 2013 - 01:35 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ChrisR

    6 Conqueror

    If we ignore the idiot Stevie for a moment, I reget to say that rhetoric of the much referred to AR/UYU symbiosis aside, there is a degree ot truth in what HO has written. I think referring to the crisis of 2001 is misleading, there has been a broadening of customer base to other countries but more could have been done.

    HO is absolutely correct about the indiginous workforce and their cast iron hold over employers.

    I have myself been posting for a while that Pepe has lost his way and the 'government' he 'leads' is not governing and he is not leading.

    My present major investment which is Pesos based comes up for a 'turnover' or encashment within the next 4 weeks after the initial two year run.

    I will have to consider very carefully what I do, but as I live in a pesos economy I suspect, as long as their is not a massive crash, things will be reasonably OK.

    May 01st, 2013 - 02:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • rylang23

    Uruguay will undoubtedly have a much different financial trajectory than it has recently had, with the coming changes for the world economy. We will ALL wake up one fine morning (possibly very soon, I believe) to find our lives changed in ways that we didn't imagine when we put our heads on our pillows the night before. Think “Cyprus”, on a global scale. [Do you know where your money is tonight?]

    The question is whether Uruguayos have the ability to adjust to those changes. Obviously, since I have chosen to live here, I have placed my bet with them. Historically an agrarian country, growing and providing food to other countries who have food shortfalls will be the future for Uruguay, be it to the Americas, Africa, or Asia.

    And, the standard of living in Uruguay will drop, as it will virtually everywhere. Uruguayos are (in general) very literate, well educated and civil. They will adjust to the new world with their dignity intact and with their warm smiles undiminished.

    The comments of “US based BCP Securities” mean absolutely nothing to me. They are the self serving spouting of a desperate financial class who are frantically gluing and duct taping their world together so that they can squeeze a few more Pesos from the underclasses of what they call the Third World. Those words clearly show the contempt that the (as they call themselves) First World's elite has for Latin America.

    May 01st, 2013 - 02:20 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ChrisR

    9 rylang23

    So where are you from?

    May 01st, 2013 - 03:39 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Anglotino

    Rylang23 is now living in Uruguay?

    Just when Stevie was finally exposed as NOT living in Uruguay, rylang23 now does!

    I'm sure that doesn't gel with his previous posts where he said he was American and usually only posts in Venezuelan articles.

    Hmmmm. Stevie disappears and rylang23 pops up.

    Anyway according to him at least Canada, the US and Australia have an assured future as we are all major food exporters and the coming financial Armageddon will affect us less.

    May 01st, 2013 - 08:36 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ChrisR

    Walter T. Molano Ph.D. the author of the piece was educated initially in the US Naval Academy. He earned his Ph.D. at Duke University which has very good stats (accepts only 14% of applicants, scored 97 in US Uni ratings in 2011).

    He is a partner at BCP Securities which as of 2011 had just FIVE employees including the Partners (3), seems to be on a USD 115k salary.

    BCP Securities is considered a 'boutique' investment company with just USD 11 Bn under management in 2010.

    Molano has specialised in SA companies mainly in the more wacky countries, including Venezuela. It's always difficult to believe economists: you put six in a room with a singles topic and you get at least twelve 'views'.

    May 01st, 2013 - 09:05 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Stevie

    Anglolatino
    Your strongest arguments seem to be where people come from...
    Why is that, do you reckon?
    You seriously believe that will change peoples views on any matter, the fact that you (don't) know where people come from?
    Do you really don't have anything else to say?

    May 01st, 2013 - 09:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Anglotino

    Stevie

    I'm sorry that you cognitive abilities lead to this 'idea'.

    I've stated plenty of times that I don't care where you come from. If you feel the need to lie about who you are then that is a reflection on issues you grapple with.

    These fora are nothing more than people's opinions together with facts, either stated or interpreted; personal experiences and viewpoints that are influenced by many factors including their education, nationality and location.

    You felt that your posts on here would be better if you pretended to be Uruguayan, lived in Uruguay and was fluent in Spanish.

    Therefore any opinions, facts and experiences you state are tainted by the fact that you lied to begin with. You only lie if you have something to hide. You only hide something if you think it will devalue your contribution.

    You feel the truth about yourself would change the content of your opinion.Again that is a reflection on you not me.

    If you don’t want people to know where you are from – fine. Lying was pathetic because you used this lie to attack others to give greater credence to your attacks. You acted if your false nationality/location gave you a greater insight/opinion into Argentina/Uruguay/Chile/Latin America/South America issues and problems.

    And it was all a lie. You don’t have greater insight or credence. You have the opposite now.

    So I don’t care about your location/nationality. Unless you are going to use these lies to bolster your ‘facts’.

    Honestly I can’t understand how ashamed some people are of their nationality/location/ethnicity that they have to lie on an anonymous forum. I’m proudly Australian living in Brunswick West, Victoria, Australia. I’ll even narrow it down further and yet still retain my anonymity.

    I may get facts wrong . I may be misinformed. I may argue from a faulty premise. But I don’t lie.

    Because I don’t lie, what I say on here is of greater weight that what you say. That’s why you can’t ever put me into the pathetic situation like yours.

    May 02nd, 2013 - 02:36 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • rylang23

    @ ChrisR... That's very good information about BCP. I appreciate that you do research and are as accurate as possible.

    However, Molano is a capitalist (who's goals are rarely benevolent, and are always based on “profits first”) and, as such, his opinions and views on a specifically targeted country should be treated with suspicion.

    May 02nd, 2013 - 12:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ChrisR

    15 rylang23

    But are you not a capitalist also by your own admission you sold you land in Uruguay 'at the top' of the market?

    We are all capitalists the lefties in power are the worst, hoarding their counties money as if it were their own (it's also called corruption).

    Sureley you did not think Molano was writing this 'puff' for the good of Uruguay or her people did you?

    May 02nd, 2013 - 12:39 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • rylang23

    ChrisR.... you have me confused or conjoined with someone else. I did not nor do I have property in Uruguay.

    By definition, there are many kinds of capitalism. The much referred to and revered “free market” form of capitalism does not exist any more, if it ever actually existed without interference from the financial elites over the last 150+ years or so. You would need to define your use of “capitalism” if you want to pigeon hole me. I might define myself as being closer to Anarcho-capitalism than to any other form. Both liberals and conservatives of the current stripe cannot allow anarcho-capitalism because it doesn't serve the demands of their oligarchic masters.

    The current form of capitalism is entirely bereft of compassion for humanity, and the entire bunch of yahoos who run this despicable system would slit their own Mother's throat if it gave them a leg up on some personal gain.

    I do not understand how you can hurl diatribes at the left when the right is as guilty of hypocrisy and corruption as anyone. Please, drop the left/right stuff, and see that they both serve masters who want you and I to argue over who is the worst. They are both just awful.

    I wrote my comment precisely because I didn't believe Molano. As I said, his comments mean nothing to me. He is a “lieutenant” or “capo” (maybe a “consigliere”) for the Financial Mafia. His job is to soften and redirect how people see the Uruguayan economy. He moves sentiment and opinion that will serve his masters, as well as lining his own pockets.

    May 02nd, 2013 - 05:26 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ChrisR

    17 rylang23

    Please accept my sincere apologies I confused you with mastershakejb.

    But the left are 'more awfuller' than the right. :o)

    May 02nd, 2013 - 07:30 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Stevie

    Anglolatino
    It's not that complicated.
    Nothing you say will change the fact that I am Uruguayan.

    But you hang in there :)

    May 02nd, 2013 - 10:44 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ynsere

    Anglolatino @ 14
    Guzz ... er ... Stevie is not Uruguayan.

    May 03rd, 2013 - 01:27 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Anglotino

    Stevie = zero credibility!
    QED

    May 03rd, 2013 - 11:57 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Stevie

    Anglolatino
    Sometimes, in very rare occasions, I do actually catch you lot telling the truth.

    ;)

    May 04th, 2013 - 07:43 am - Link - Report abuse 0

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