MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Argentines expect inflation to average 34.9% in the next twelve months

Expectations among Argentine consumers remain exceptionally high

Argentines expect inflation to average 34.9% in the next twelve months according to a private report released on Monday by the Finance Research Centre, CIF, belonging to the Torcuato Di Tella University.

This is 0.7 percentage point higher than the previous monthly estimate in mid April. However overall and according to the regular monthly survey, projected inflation remains above 30%.

“Considering the average of replies, inflation expectations for the next 12 months offered heterogeneous variations in the three regions of Argentina in which the study is divided.

“In the capital Buenos Aires expectations decreased but in metropolitan Buenos Aires and in the rest of the country, they increased”, said Guido Sandleris, head of CIF.

Official inflation in Argentina according to the controversial government stats office Indec in the last 12 months to April was 10.5% while estimates from private agencies and consultants indicate the consumer price index stands above 25% annually.

Argentina’s official stats on inflation and GDP are much discredited and questioned by economists, members of the opposition and even staff from Indec, who claim numbers are manipulated.

Likewise the current round of annual salaries and pay benefits is operating on the basis of a 24% cap for the government, but many unions have ignored it.

Last February, the IMF issued a “declaration of censure” against Argentina because of its growing concerns regarding the quality of the stats material.

The CIF expectations poll is done regularly every month by consultants Poliarquía based on a survey of 1.195 cases covering the whole of Argentina. Poliarquía remains the most prestigious pollster in the country.