MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
“The party is over” for Latam countries China-dependent on their exports
“The party is over” and Latinamerican countries should be concerned since the Chinese economy is slowing down, apparently entering a low growth period and many in the region have become notoriously ‘China-dependent’ after a decade of strong expanding sustained bilateral relations. Read full article
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Disclaimer & comment rulesThe Chinese boom was always going to end simply because all booms end.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 06:08 am - Link - Report abuse 0The trick is to reorientate and reform when export growth slows.
Funnily enough this slowdown may benefit Australia as any Chinese slowdown will drive competition on prices and Australia though expensive in many respects will always win on transport costs.
It's time for some South American countries to use their low costs especially in labour to attract some of the manufacturing that China is losing. The US takes 17% if China's exports. There is billions to be made by a smart government.
if you were to tie every single economist in the world together into one straight line ...
Jul 30th, 2013 - 07:35 am - Link - Report abuse 0I seem to remember arguing with some really dumb Rg posters that this was coming last year.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 08:40 am - Link - Report abuse 0And again I was right
China will be lucky to keep civil unrest from their big East Coast cities. My bet is they won't be able to as their banks fail, real estate bubble bursts and 3 generations of wealth are lost by their fragile middle class.
The thing I will like the best will be the slowdown in Chinese tourists to the USA. Ugh between Brazilians and Chinese you can't move down the streets. Nasty dirty people with no manners.
As China slows the USA will pick up the slack, practically free energy, stable currency, stable gov't, hardworking innovative society. The next decade is looking very very good for the USA.
Of course.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 09:58 am - Link - Report abuse 0And Paraguay wont rejoin Mercosur...
Wanna bet?
;)
Oh was it you Stevie? I knew it was someone pretty dumb I just couldn't remember which one since there are so many to choose from on this board.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 10:11 am - Link - Report abuse 0As i said, I'm right again.
Sorry if that makes you mad.
We'll be fine.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 10:16 am - Link - Report abuse 0We've know for years that this boom would wind down again and measures were taken for this eventuality (i.e. sovereign saving funds).
Of course the economy will slow down but during the years that copper was under $2 we managed to grow respectably. We are now less dependent on Copper than we were then.
In Chile, I think the political scenario presents greater danger than the Chinese slow down. Public expectations on how the windfall of the boom years should be spent lag behind the economic reality - irresponsible political populism will unfortunately not disappear as Mr Oppenheimer suggests.
@1 Anglotino
“It's time for some South American countries to use their low costs especially in labour to attract some of the manufacturing that China is losing. The US takes 17% if China's exports. There is billions to be made by a smart government.”
In theory yes, but in practice...
...In Chile our energy cost preclude much manufacturing. In the SA countries that have low energy costs, smart governance is in short supply. If a smart government showed up, the socialist heart of South America would ensure it didn't last. It is the middle income trap. In the next few years we will see if Chile at least has achieved exit velocity.
Not at all yanqui, I'm quite happy indeed, as the Trading with China is already going strong, stronger than ever as a matter of fact, and even if the Chinese economy is slowing down, it will mainly affect new agreements, as the old ones are done or halfway there.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 10:17 am - Link - Report abuse 0Me, I don't want or need eternal growth. I'm ok with the responsible growth that requires more time and patience, when the money achieved is used to the benefit of the poorest.
Sorry if that makes you mad, but there's not a darn thing you can do about the SA situation, or do you really believe the oligarchs will get into power again?
With you as an exception, there are limits to peoples stupidity, you know...
7. I see that you don't really have a clear grasp of what it means if China has a slower economy.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 10:24 am - Link - Report abuse 0That's ok, you are typical of most Rgs or put it any other Marxist/Statist idiot that will be really surprised when the good times come to an abrupt end.
Luckily only ALBA plus Argentina and Brazil will feel the pain. The other SA nations are smart enough to have planned ahead and not squandered a decade of wealth on foolish populism.
Well yanqui, I see that you, yet Again, are experiencing difficulties with your own language.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 10:29 am - Link - Report abuse 0A slower economy means a growth that is smaller than it used to be.
In no way it means that the economy is shrinking, that would be your arguments.
You know what I think? I think Arfica is fed up with your sacking.
I think Asia is fed up with your sacking.
I know SA is fed up with your sacking.
And I'm quite sure you are the only ones to feel the pain.
Not because of what we will do, but because of what we will not.
Enjoy ;)
@7 “With you as an exception, there are limits to peoples stupidity, you know...” But not yours, apparently. Can't see any FACTS in your “comment”. Because you don't have any. This is called “hope”. Will argieland be “helping” you? In which case you're “doomed”.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 10:33 am - Link - Report abuse 0darn Conq
Jul 30th, 2013 - 10:35 am - Link - Report abuse 0Only hope I had was for you to stick to your words and ignore me...
Stevie
Jul 30th, 2013 - 10:44 am - Link - Report abuse 0“I think Asia is fed up with your sacking.
I know SA is fed up with your sacking.”
Didn't the US used to “sack” SA when they used to do exactly what China has been doing, and is now going to be doing less of???
No, USA got the raw material at no price at all.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 10:49 am - Link - Report abuse 0For that, they worked with the oligarchy in order to impose military dictatorships all over the continent. Remember Kissinger?
Your very own copper mines? the Canal? Guevara? the ore in Minas Gerais? the military camps? Schools of America?
Well, the Chinese brings railroads, ports, banks and they actually pay for the stuff the need.
Imagine that.
13. You need to study History instead of Marxist propaganda.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 10:57 am - Link - Report abuse 014
Jul 30th, 2013 - 10:59 am - Link - Report abuse 0You need to come up with arguments instead of using the scaring tactics your old man used on you...
Is that supposed to be some sort of “ You will cry tears of blood” like in a cheesy telanovela
Jul 30th, 2013 - 11:06 am - Link - Report abuse 0You really do have a hard time with my predictions coming to fruition so fast don't you?
BTW I hear the street U$ is around 12/1 now...
yanqui
Jul 30th, 2013 - 11:11 am - Link - Report abuse 0I haven't seen one of your predictions come to life, not a single one.
You rant and you rant about politics and economics, but nothing you rant about never really happens.
Like the Ara Libertad.
Like the [next] Argentinean default.
Like the uproars in China.
I got to admit though, as a thread clown, you are a marvel...
Oh sweetie if you haven't seen any you're not paying attention.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 11:17 am - Link - Report abuse 0Do you also take 2x as much lithium as the doctor recommends?
Maybe I should
Jul 30th, 2013 - 11:24 am - Link - Report abuse 0Who knows, if I fill my body with medecines, like you, your rants may just as well make any sense...
Well first try reading real books and not Marxist propaganda or Peronista re-written history.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 11:30 am - Link - Report abuse 0I'd start there, you are probably on enough medicine already.
yanqui
Jul 30th, 2013 - 11:33 am - Link - Report abuse 0Comics don't count as “books”, stop flattering yourself...
I hear there is a new comic for elementary school kids making Nestor into The Glorious Leader.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 11:42 am - Link - Report abuse 0That's nice.
I think it is sad that you, Axel, Marcos, Think may be the smartest monkeys in that zoo and the reason your countries go through currency crisis every decade.
If anyone has any risk allocations in their portfolio.......Argentina is coming close to picking time, but they have yet to bottom out.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 11:42 am - Link - Report abuse 0http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/137247/real-estate-sector-suffers-amid-us$-drought
Stevie
Jul 30th, 2013 - 11:55 am - Link - Report abuse 0“You need to study History instead of Marxist propaganda.”
Our copper mines were opened by British/US mining companies. If they hadn't been there would have been no mines to nationalise. If there had been no “sacking”, there would be no mines - that simple.
They were opened long before Kissinger or plan Condor.
Both my grandfathers worked there entire lives in US owned mines. My surviving grandmother lives in a US built house, built for mine workers - despite its age it is vastly superior to any social housing built today.
Miners working in US/foriegn mines then as now were the kings of the working class. We were never poor because of the work provided by the mines. If my grandfathers had worked in a national industry we would have been much worse off.
The reality is very much different to reading Galiano.
(24) Condorito
Jul 30th, 2013 - 12:10 pm - Link - Report abuse 0It's Galeano, my dear”King of the Working Class........ G A L E A N O.
Condorito
Jul 30th, 2013 - 12:18 pm - Link - Report abuse 0We shall open our own mines, like we are going to extract our own oil.
Always the same, they own and we work.
They never send us raw material or technology, merely expensive final products.
The Chinese offer the technology and we have the workforce, in fact, as you say it yourself, we've had it for generations...
“Our copper mines were opened by British/US mining companies. If they hadn't been there would have been no mines to nationalise”
If it isn't for someone else, you're just not productive, you say? Fine.
That an issue you will have to deal with, but the rest of SA isn't just as dependent on “someone else” as you seem to be.
Fair enough their companies make a profit out of their investment, but that profit has to be in relation to that very same investment.
When that profit is made, the deal is off and the company goes home.
Everybody is happy.
And it's Galeano.
Stevie,
Jul 30th, 2013 - 12:56 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“The Chinese offer the technology”
That is exactly what we got when the US opened the mines.
The US and Chinese “sacking” is very similar.
“We shall open our own mines” ... we have been doing that for a long time now.
I am saying that what you call “sacking” gave us our mining base, our expertise, work opportunities and a better future for many.
Think,
A sneer and a typo? At least you are awake.
Fair enough their companies make a profit out of their investment, but that profit has to be in relation to that very same investment.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 01:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Does that same logic apply to Crissy and Cronies?
apparently not
Do you not realize Statist policies have spectacularly failed in every country where they have tried to be implemented?
Condorito
Jul 30th, 2013 - 01:07 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You think so?
You mean China will have their own little Kissinger and impose military dictatorships all over the continent, while they take oro por baratijas?
I'm very much aware that we have been opening mines for quite some time now, but so has a number of foreign companies, and not to mention the oil.
You say the sacking comes with benefits, well, I'm just not prepared to pay the price of who knows how many more generations in order to get our resources back.
26 Stevie
Jul 30th, 2013 - 01:19 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You should really READ YOUR OWN POSTS before you press 'submit'.
I have never seen so much nonsense from you than the statement 'we have the workforce'. No, we don't. The Uruguayo are not skilled in deep sea port building OR train construction because they have never done such things and there are not enough of them any way.
And don’t forget that your commie hero Mujica let the truth out when he said in Spain that “you never see a Uruguayo off ill for overwork”. He also apologised for that, yet you say he has a spine, more like the onset of dementia.
But the killer is that the Chin ONLY uses their own workforce so that's the end of that.
I have yet to hear anything positive on the Deep Sea Port and I really hope we have not got our hopes up and backed the Chin when they are about to take the nosedive of all nosedives in their external economy. Never overlook the propensity of commies to lie over figures: they are if anything worse than INDEC. I suggest you read the international financial press to see what is going on rather than rely on rhetoric.
BTW if you have never seen a prophesy of Yankeeboy’s that has come right, then you have not been looking.
When your career and maybe your well being depend on reporting 7.5% growth year in and year out.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 01:38 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Guess what you report...7.5% growth
China has been over reporting positive data and under-reporting negative data for so long it is going to quite interesting to see how this all pans out.
I read that provincial gov't have been building White House replicas all over the country! When you can get unaccounted loans...why not!
29 Stevie,
Jul 30th, 2013 - 01:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Like I said before, the US started operating mines in Chile long before Kissinger or Pinochet. The dictatorships were part of the cold war scenario. Exploitation of natural resources goes back way before that and has nothing to do with Kissinger for goodness sake.
“You say the sacking comes with benefits, well, I'm just not prepared to pay the price of who knows how many more generations”
Exactly what decade are you living in? The “sacking” as you call it happened long ago. I can agree to disagree on the benefits but it is history. We paid the price, we have the benefits/legacy ...Today Chinese action in Africa and the institutionally weak SA nations is much closer to the “sacking” you dislike.
The party began! “Diversificación y educación ahora!” Education is the key!
Jul 30th, 2013 - 01:50 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You may have lots of things, you may have many ambitions,
Jul 30th, 2013 - 03:40 pm - Link - Report abuse 0but you also have a no do leader, so you aint going nowhere,
China is a bubble, and argentina is just one of many pins .
And all this, [we don’t want nothing from the UK,USA ect ect]
May well take on a completely new meaning,
One thinks some south American countries may have bitten of more than they could swallow….
Unless you name is CFK….lol
That is right my Brasilian brother.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 04:08 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The party just begun.
;)
“The thing I will like the best will be the slowdown in Chinese tourists to the USA. Ugh between Brazilians and Chinese you can't move down the streets. Nasty dirty people with no manners” - Yankee....aka Eric Cartman.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 04:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zyq0v6r948
@11 Did I give you “my word”? You have to understand that my word only means something if it is given to a “person”.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 04:36 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@13 And these railroads, ports, banks. Where are they?
@17 But you don't look, do you?
@21 Then you stop reading stop reading stuff from argieland. Sorry, can you read? No doubt your school's computer reads stuff for you.
@25 So?
@26 “We shall open our own mines, like we are going to extract our own oil.” Don't be stupid. You couldn't open a successful brothel!
@29 But you will pay. And more than you think! You are a typical latino kindergarten juvenile. You believe the propaganda. You have no understanding of reality. You can't recognise that ANYBODY has more power than you. Your only hope is to try to recognise who will win. Let's give you a short list of who will NOT win. Argieland, Bolivia, Ecuador, Iran, mercosur, North Korea, palestinians, Syria, Uruguay, Venezuela, Zimbabwe. That's just off the top of my head. There may be others. But here's a clue. Small, poor countries who nevertheless play by the rules will be helped. Small, poor countries that don't, won't. That takes care of Uruguay. Or do you think that no-one's noticed Mujica trying to play both sides? But now that he's threatening Paraguay, he's gone too far. Once upon a time, Uruguay seemed to be an acceptable country. Battle of the River Plate. Uruguay did the right thing for the freedom of the world. Uruguay is now just a pawn and Mujica is just a mouthpiece. Can't be taken seriously. Much the same as you really!
conq
Jul 30th, 2013 - 04:39 pm - Link - Report abuse 0All I know is that measuring the db's of your farts and burps historically gives us a quite fine indication on how well we are doing.
From your latest post, we are doing extraordinary well...
@24. Cool story, Condorito.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 06:16 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@6 Condorito
Jul 30th, 2013 - 07:09 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I agree that Chile’s energy costs and probably labour costs preclude it from competing in low cost mass manufacturing, however with the Pacific Alliance there is a great opportunity for Chilean businesses to harness the lower labour and energy costs of Peru and Colombia. Chilean business knowhow born from less corruption and stronger civil institutions will be a great asset.
“In the next few years we will see if Chile at least has achieved exit velocity”
That’s a very apt way of putting it. So few countries do attain it. Only a handful so far. However I have high hopes for Chile because it has been slowly working its way up for quite a few decades and the government didn’t act as if one big boom (the last 10 years) would do the whole job. Chile’s energy issues may be the best asset it has. This lack creates either extremely lean manufacturing abilities or will have Chile skipping many secondary industries and heading straight to tertiary with services.
With language and cultural affinities, Chile could leverage their service economy with surrounding countries that concentrate on primary or secondary industries.
If you look at the countries that did escape the middle income trap: Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and South Korea, they were all forced to create lean manufacturing due to a shortage of one major component: resources. Energy is just a different resource.
Looking at the history of Toyota and their lean manufacturing philosophy will show you how they competed.
The other ingredient is ingenuity which comes from education. It is probably the area that Chile next needs to tackle. While I don’t advocate a free for all university sector, Chile could learn from Australia’s part tax payer funded and part user pays model. Chile universities could attract talent from the entire region which just compounds a skills base.
I still have high hope for Chile.
I fear Mr Oppenheimer is letting his political lenses dominate his economic perspectives.
Jul 30th, 2013 - 07:42 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Left leaning goverments in Latam were there before the boom years and the increased relationship with China, but so were right leaning govetments without making great changes with their relation to the US. In a way because a relationshio with China didn´t involve a political position but investment in infraestructure of the kind that can help exposrts, a priority of China, but with the reight steps can also help a lot said country diversification of it´s economy. Less exports of commodities to China also mean less investment there but at least in the case of Argentina and Brazil, could mean greater investment at their industries.
In short China will slow down but that´s both an oportunity and a problem to Latam countries on the whole, in a time when even the US is seeking closer links with even left leaning countries, Latam can take this time to develop it´s economy, have a more armonious relation between US, Europe and China, while also getting closer links between Latam countries, be it Right or Left leaning, or even out of the traditional economic powerhouses a a way developing emerging markets. That´s my oppinion.
With people like Elena, I know everything will go well.
Jul 31st, 2013 - 05:55 am - Link - Report abuse 0Regardless of our ideologoes, we should all aim for integration and a foundation that gives us all, not the same life and salary, but at least the same opportunities.
Condor (Right of) Think (Definitely Left), #24, 25.
Jul 31st, 2013 - 06:26 am - Link - Report abuse 0I have read a bit of Eduardo Galeano;
I think that the allusion is to “Open Veins of Latin America: Five Centuries of the Pillage of a Continent” (1971).
The translation into English by Cedric Belfrage is so good it makes for very east reading.
Because it is powerfully socialist - even Bolivarian - in its paradigm, it should be balanced by another book which is a work of criticism: “Guide to the Perfect Latin American Idiot”. It 'takes apart' the words, paradigm and arguments of Galeano.
The latter is written by a trio of journalists: Plinio A Mendosa, Carlos A Montaner (V.P. of Liberal International), and Alvaro Vargas Llosa. It is a 'biting satire in the pamphleteering style of Voltaire and Thomas Paine' ... iconoclastic and “Take yer blinkers off!”
The translator into English, Michaela Lajda Ames had a difficult job of creating a book with stylistic conformity.
To get a balance of the arguments the two versions of the truth should be read in parallel.
I tend towards the world-view and economic perspective of the latter.
Geoff, with all respect, your comment is far too simplistic to make that comparison, Las venas abiertas deals with massive issues, historical and contemporary, and stretches from economy, culture and ideology.
Jul 31st, 2013 - 07:14 am - Link - Report abuse 0My guess is that you did an Obama, learned the title of the book, but couldn't care to read it...
Again, with all respect...
Stevie,
Jul 31st, 2013 - 11:15 am - Link - Report abuse 0Your colleagues, Condor and Think, are aware that I become reasonably well informed before a serious post - especially in an area in which I have had some years of interest.
Unlike Obama, who has a team do do his reading for him, I read the books myself ... and that is just my starting point.
(45) GeoffWard2
Jul 31st, 2013 - 02:08 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeease.......
You Shalt Not Use My Name in Vain!
Using a book like the “Guide to the Perfect Latin American Idiot” to “balance” a book like the ““Open Veins of Latin America”........ amounts to using the last issue of “Popular Mechanics” to “balance” Thoreau's “Walden”......
@38 You couldn't do “well” if you were standing in a wet hole.
Jul 31st, 2013 - 03:29 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@41 I think the “mistake” that you're making is not to recognise how much certain latam countries have pinned on China. You can figure which ones I'm thinking of. Just as a thought, didn't Pepe go rushing off to China recently with his cap in his hand? And a while ago, didn't CFK organise some “credit”?
I like that last sentence tobi
Jul 31st, 2013 - 03:39 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@47 Well, Pepe does know ones of mercosur main economic partner is China, but also EU and USA. Argentina does have economic imbalances and will probably have problems with China´s slowdown, but they also actually can take this time to get back investment in their industry from the commodities bussines that took most of it away because that was what China wanted from it. But first, of course, Mercosur will need to open more between members at least, and for that both Argentina and Brazil next elections are esential.
Aug 03rd, 2013 - 02:39 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Costa Rica, Chile and Colombia also had a very good economic relationship with China, they will probably have slowdown because of it, but they also have other economic partners and now that Costa Rica is part of the Pacific Alliance, it seems they are looking for greater intra-regional comerce to deal with both China´s slowdown and the world´s systemic crisis. It´s a good and necesary bet as the Latam regiona as a whole would benefice from greater intra-comerce.
In short, that was why I thought China´s situation was both a problem/oportunity for the region as a whole, hence why I don´t think there´s a direct relation on economy/left or right goverment, as those are more influenced by a particular country recent political history.
'You Shalt Not Use My Name in Vain!' ... Well, God - oh, sorry, Think ..
Aug 03rd, 2013 - 03:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0#46 asks that we must use only the most erudite source material when arguing with 'greats' of the South American Left. I usually use my own opinion ... there, that should satisfy your criterion!
I advise 'Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance' if you want philosophical underpinning to mechanical argument [I am a Gestaltist].
But the Irish directional answer to 'how to get there' ... “Well, to be sure, I wouldn't start from here!” encapsulates the South American problem.
You have to start from where you are;
and if your philosophy is at variance with your economics then there are two variables that you can change.
You don't HAVE to keep changing the economics; tweaking the philosophy can do the trick.
Sacrosanct is just a belief, but stupidity is just stupid.
(50) GeoffWard2
Aug 04th, 2013 - 06:50 am - Link - Report abuse 0ZAMM..., now we are talking!
Are you implying me to be a Sutherland ?
I rather see myself as a Patagonian No. 8 wire man.......
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