MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
Gibraltar praises UK and Spain for quick action in de-escalating situation
Gibraltar Government House issued a statement following Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and PM David Cameron exchange and later intervention of foreign ministers Garcia-Margallo and William Hague to find a way to de-escalate the situation by reducing measures at the Gib/Spain border. Read full article
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Disclaimer & comment rulesWell done Cameron, Hague and indeed Rajoy though he should proceed to dismiss Garcia-Meladdo for the rhetoric and the disgraceful actions on the boarder. No where in the EU should such actions be allowed to endure. The spanish actions border on hypocrisy having sunk many a reef to curtail their belligerent fishermen activities, Gibraltar in its own territorial waters has followed the Spanish lead and been subjected to poisonous Garcia-meladdo rhetoric. Glad the uk only responds to actions and not rhetoric, Keep Calm Gibraltar and carry on!
Aug 09th, 2013 - 05:00 am - Link - Report abuse 0The need to de-escalate is real.
Aug 09th, 2013 - 05:36 am - Link - Report abuse 0Because when we slap a €50 supplement on flights to and from spain and our tourist €billions go to greece instead it will bankrupt spain.
And then there's the TRUTH. Fortunately, the statement was issued by the hopeful Governor and not by Her Majesty's Government of Gibraltar. Who have considerable experience of Spanish lies. I wonder why it is that latinos lie continuously and are allowed to get away with it? Spain is a nearby example of latino duplicity. We should return to the old-style effective methods. For instance, the current King of Spain has three offspring. These should be taken as hostages. Every time that Spain is naughty, the offspring should lose something. A hand, a foot, an arm, a leg, a head.
Aug 09th, 2013 - 07:15 am - Link - Report abuse 0But, keeping up to date, we can see that Spain has no intention of being reasonable. So, when the Royal Navy arrives, let it offer a simple option. Spanish vessels of any description to stay clear of British Gibraltar Territorial Waters for the next year or the Navy will return and shell Algeciras. Perhaps the Navy could fire a few shells to provide an example. Perhaps 4 shells from each vessel. And provide the information that the same guns can fire 30 shells per minute. Perhaps eight shells will ramp up to 60 shells per minute. Just think of the fun. A new wilderness courtesy of the Royal Navy. A real tourist attraction. “This is where Algeciras used to be”!
This latest situation has been created by Madrid, and I cannot see how any negotiation will not end without them 'winning' something.
Aug 09th, 2013 - 08:43 am - Link - Report abuse 0At the end of this settlement (which let's face it will not be a settlement, Madrid has no intention of accepting Gibraltar as a separate part of Iberia) I can easily imagine border controls return to what they were anyway, and that Gibraltar is still barred from land reclamation by the EU while Spanish fishing vessels are again operating in (what is described on this site as) Gibraltar waters in some limited capacity.
Since, in reality, Spain has the most to lose in escalating dispute excuse me if the terms that I imagine will be reached do not impress me in the slightest.
I hope I'm wrong, by the way.
4
Aug 09th, 2013 - 10:16 am - Link - Report abuse 0Unfortunately, that's the way it looks to me as well.
Let's see.
To: 3 Conqueror (#)
Aug 09th, 2013 - 10:16 am - Link - Report abuse 0Quote: “Blessed be the Peacemakers”.
You really ARE a stupid, sabre-rattling little sh*te! You ought to be made to man one the guns that you say should shell innocent women and children –or better still, made to find yourself on the salvos’ receiving end. Then perhaps, you’d learn to not to talk abject irresponsible nonsense!
If you had any REAL knowledge of events in Spain, you’d be aware that one of the most popular Web Blogs here is entitled, in Spanish; “I COULDN’T GIVE A F*CK ABOUT GIBRALTAR!!!”.
Obviously, most young, sentient Spaniards are not taken in by the “Anti- Colonial” smokescreen, which Madrid’s rightwing government has laid so thickly down, in a futile attempt to cover the widespread corruption scandals for which it has now become internationally infamous.
The most likely reason for the recent “rapprochement” between Gibraltar and Spain is the fact –that, after several years’ of severe depression– Southern Spain’s vitally important tourist industry is presently enjoying its biggest bonanza for ages. And of course, as politicians in ALL parts of the planet tend to do whatever their Banking Bosses tell them, AT LEAST SOME OF THE SPANISH BEAN COUNTERS HAVE SUDDENLY REALIZED THAT STRIFE AND RUMOURS THEREOF, DRIVE AWAY WELL PAYING CUSTOMERS!!!
Before you dare to come back at me with even more of your bigmouthed bombastic blather, may I tell you that –presumably, unlike you– I DO have some PERSONAL experience of the matters you raise in your ill-considered, ignorant Post. For, during the Korean War, I served as a frontline soldier and later as a civilian, I spent some years’ cooped up in Gibraltar, during the siege by the Franco’s fascist regime.
Cheers to All!
Jim, in Madrid.
The BBC is poorly informing the British public, focussing on the vehicle queues rather than the cause.
Aug 09th, 2013 - 10:35 am - Link - Report abuse 0Even today, the BBC are showing rows of anchored freighters and saying that the Gibraltar 'reef-building' is to stop Spanish shipping accessing Gib. territorial waters!
They continue to refer to 'reef-building', giving the impression that we have got a Great Barrier Reef or a marine Great Wall of China!
The truth that there is just a dispersement of concrete blocks to stop pirate-trawling of the marine reserve.
This is done in many places around the world because we just cannot trust (many) fishermen to obay the law.
To: 3 Conqueror (#)
Aug 09th, 2013 - 10:47 am - Link - Report abuse 0P.S.
Re: Quote: “Blessed be the Peacemakers” and whatnot...
Anyone interested in what SO many Spaniards REALLY think about Gibraltar should see places such as these:
http://www.eldiario.es/sinsentidocomun/Comparece-Gibraltar-hablar-crisis-estrecho_6_162443764.html
http://www.eldiario.es/sinsentidocomun/Comparece-Gibraltar-hablar-crisis-estrecho_6_162443764.html
The texts are in Spanish but may be reasonably well translated using Google Translate.
Cheers to All!
Jim, in Madrid.
@8
Aug 09th, 2013 - 11:00 am - Link - Report abuse 0that second link is to your GMail :)
when i click it, it opens my gmail.
Do the spanish see any contradiction between their stance on Gibraltar and on Ceuta and Melilla. And do they appreciate that 1) their government is doing this to distract them. 2) if british tourists stop coming they are in real trouble?
To : 9 MrFlagpole (#)
Aug 09th, 2013 - 11:53 am - Link - Report abuse 0Re: Quote: Blessed be the Peacemakers and whatnot...
Sorry about that. Please try this:
http://www.eldiario.es/sinsentidocomun/Comparece-Gibraltar-hablar-crisis-estrecho_6_162443764.html
& SEE THIS ADDITIONAL TEXT ON THE SAME THEME:
Pedro J. Ramirez (NOTE: REFERENCE TO PIECE BY THE EVER EXPANSIVE EDITOR OF A SPANISH SENSATIONALIST DAILY)
@pedroj_ramirez
La tesis de EM es que Cameron se equivoca al intimidar a Rajoy con la Navy porque eso le deja sin margen de retroceso –08 Aug.
HUMOUROUS REPLY FROM ONE OF THE LOCAL ‘LIKELY LADS’)
Carlos Clavijo
@carlosclavijo22
@pedroj_ramirez:
Cameron nos manda a su Armada. ¡Qué insensato! No sabe que Rajoy lo hunde todo?
This reply typifies the sentiment of most educated young Spaniards.
Cheers!
Jim.
Thanks.
Aug 09th, 2013 - 12:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Yeah! Conqueror......“That's what I'm talking about”......
Aug 09th, 2013 - 01:56 pm - Link - Report abuse 0.....Now get back to your...“Call of Duty: Black Ops” .... your Gaming fantasy world!
I believe that Conqueror is being rather tongue in cheek with you all
Aug 09th, 2013 - 02:38 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The truth is that the Gibraltar dispute will escalate, because there are certain factors which are out of the control of either Prime Minister.
Rajoy is quite content to let it get worse, because it is an effective smokescreen. He's discovered the 'Galtieri factor' - if you chase after a nationalistic issue the Spanish machismo mentality will get everyone to support you for a change. The only problem is that you cannot win.
Rajoy is hoping for a compromise. He's hoping that Gibraltar will remove the concrete blocks, which will then be seen as an acquiescence & that Gibraltar's waters belong to Spain. His problem is that the Government of Gibraltar is out of his (& Cameron’s) control & they will never give in on this issue.
Rumours are that the Spanish Government will impose the border tax next week. If they do, then the vast majority of people in La Linea will lose their jobs in Gibraltar. This won’t stop Gibraltar, but it will annoy the people in Andalusia, who will blame Madrid.
Britain will commence legal action in the European Courts to force Spain to stop charging the tax, but this will be bogged down.
In the meanwhile, the PM will have talks with Germany & France to make it clear that if they do not force Spain to back down, then Britain will pull out of the EU. Cameron has no choice over this. If he doesn’t do a Maggie Thatcher & force the EU to get Spain under control, then UKIP will win at the next General Election.
In the meanwhile, if there are any shots fired, then it could blow to a shooting war very quickly. Spain cannot attack either Gibraltar or the UK mainland, as Britain would respond by sinking the Spanish fleet with an SSN. If there were any substantial British deaths, then it is conceivable that we could use Trident, because the British public would demand it.
Ultimately, Spain will have to back down & accept that they cannot trespass in Gibraltar waters ever again.
mmmmmmm
Aug 09th, 2013 - 02:48 pm - Link - Report abuse 0At the end of the day, spain has more to lose,
the uk, really has not,
but to be fair, most corupt people of power or goverments, really do not care less.
@13
Aug 09th, 2013 - 02:49 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“If there were any substantial British deaths, then it is conceivable that we could use Trident, because the British public would demand it.”
.....You are crazier than Conqueror!!
How many Brits live in Spain?......You did mean against Spain.....I take it?
Trident would not be used, its not needed,
Aug 09th, 2013 - 03:04 pm - Link - Report abuse 0as far as i know , nuclear powers will not nuke countries that do not have nuclear weapons,
but of course we would not bet our lives on that .lol.
@13 nigelpwsmith: “UKIP will win at the next General Election”...“we could use Trident, because the British public would demand it”
Aug 09th, 2013 - 03:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Come on, really?
@13 nigelpwsmith: “Rumours are that the Spanish Government will impose the border tax next week. If they do, then the vast majority of people in La Linea will lose their jobs in Gibraltar.”
The tax is reputed to not affect pedestrians. The Spanish workers will walk in, but what's the money that there are no facilities to drop off tourists at the border? Of course, the reduced trade will hit jobs, meaning Spanish folk will end up losing their jobs, but in this scenario they won't be getting sacked through none attendance and will therefore (I hope not, by the way) get some sort of financial package.
Gibraltar needs a legal opinion on the waters around it which it will be able to use against Spain, because Westminister clearly is not willing to defend those waters.
Just out of interest,
Aug 09th, 2013 - 03:15 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Could , or does Gibraltar have a claim to ½ of the water in that bay..
Rather than just around the rock…
.
'... In the meanwhile, the PM will have talks with Germany & France to make it clear that if they do not force Spain to back down, then Britain will pull out of the EU. Cameron has no choice over this. If he doesn’t do a Maggie Thatcher & force the EU to get Spain under control, then UKIP will win at the next General Election.' #13
Aug 09th, 2013 - 03:27 pm - Link - Report abuse 0This is Nigel's serious bit
(other bits are just showing Conq. that the words are easy to write .. ).
Rajoy will find his arm twisted right off by the big beasts; the stability of Western Europe is of paramount importance to every nation on earth - and I don't exaggerate.
Quid pro quo - Cameron may find himself boxed in over his Europe options.
[But watch out for other 'war-zones' doing decisive things if Gibraltar causes the beasts to take their eye off the ball. History tells us that - somewhere else - this is the time to expect the unexpected.]
'Spain threatens unilateral steps in dispute over Gibraltar - Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy on Friday threatened unilateral measures in a spat with Gibraltar over fisheries although he also said he hoped for talks soon with Britain about the disputed territory...'
Aug 09th, 2013 - 03:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/09/us-spain-gibraltar-idUSBRE9780KO20130809
'Spanish Hypocrisy Over Gibraltar: The Pot Calling the Kettle Black - Spain's antagonistic behavior toward Gibraltar is unbecoming of a NATO ally in 21st-century Europe. A €50 tax at the border on top of seven hour long border crossings, 200 illegal incursions by Spanish vessels into Gibraltarian waters in 2012, and intent to sell 20 jet fighters to Argentina- these are not the acts of a friend and partner...'
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/09/us-spain-gibraltar-idUSBRE9780KO20130809
'Gibraltar serves as reminder of headaches of empire'
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/09/us-spain-gibraltar-idUSBRE9780KO20130809
'Spain is acting like a schoolyard bully towards Gibraltar. Britain must stand up to Madrid'
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/09/us-spain-gibraltar-idUSBRE9780KO20130809
'Spain vows to defend its Gibraltar interests while British fleet sails in (coincidentally, of course)'
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/09/us-spain-gibraltar-idUSBRE9780KO20130809
“then it is conceivable that we could use Trident, because the British public would demand it”.....ha ha ha ha ha !!...I can not stop laughing !!!!!
Aug 09th, 2013 - 03:29 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Could you imagine? just for a second...atomic bonbs over Europe !!!...these people are crazy....
ha ha.
Aug 09th, 2013 - 03:33 pm - Link - Report abuse 0no--but--
the people who use them will be totaly crazy.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
this will cool down and the ice will return.
Argentina was completely humiliated in 1982.
Aug 09th, 2013 - 03:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Spain is about to experience the same.
The point about a strategic deterrent is that it deters an enemy from attacking your country.
If Spain was foolish enough to attack British territory, the mainland or Gibraltar, then the United States & Europe would tell them to give way immediately or face the consequences.
One warhead would be enough to demonstrate to Madrid that they cannot win. We don't even need to destroy a Spanish city. The sight of a flash and mushroom cloud over the Mediterranean would be enough,
The only people in this world that are crazy enough to use Nukes are the Yanks
Aug 09th, 2013 - 03:50 pm - Link - Report abuse 0or did I mean to say.....
The only people in this world that have been crazy enough to use Nukes are the Yanks
.....one of the two!
@16 “as far as i know , nuclear powers will not nuke countries that do not have nuclear weapons,”
Aug 09th, 2013 - 03:55 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The United States nuked Japan and they didn't have nuclear weapons.
It's all about the degree of danger to the British public. Cameron cannot let Spain carry out any attack on British soil, as that would be the end of his political career. A single nuclear warhead would be enough to show resolve to Madrid. Madrid cannot win a conventional war and it's unlikely that the EU or USA will be able to get Spain to back down. This will develop quickly and be resolved quickly.
@GeoffWard “[But watch out for other 'war-zones' doing decisive things if Gibraltar causes the beasts to take their eye off the ball. History tells us that - somewhere else - this is the time to expect the unexpected.]”
Precisely - it may be the moment for things to develop in the Gulf. I doubt that the same will happen in the South Atlantic though.
The future may well prove interesting,
Aug 09th, 2013 - 03:55 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The British military..v..the EU military
Not literally,
I see—the UK leaving the EU, Gibraltar would almost certainly follow suit,
What then if Spain then tries to use the EU in its objective to seize control,
Would the EU back a fellow member?
Would the UK be in a position to defend,
The future is not that far away,
What happens now, may well determine, what happens in that future..
Just a futuristic thought..
.
@18
Aug 09th, 2013 - 04:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Yes Gibraltar can claim out to 12 miles under UNCLOS, but only claims up to the median point in Gibraltar Bay and out to 3 miles on the Eastern and Southern sides.
See this explanation which details how we own the waters:
http://conservativecompanion.co.uk/2013/08/08/gibraltar-earth-air-water-and-spanish-fire/
25 nigelpwsmith
Aug 09th, 2013 - 04:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I fully understand what you said,
But that was total war, and before any agreements were made,
Im not sure what treaty it was [help]
I think it was a none proliferation treaty [I think]
But in today’s world I think it would only be used in two instances,
1, if you were attacked with nuclear weapons,
Or
2, if ones country was in such danger and it was a last resort,
[ of course I could be wrong]
But one never knows what ones enemies will do to make an example..
.
25
Aug 09th, 2013 - 04:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I don't think you understand the concept of “Nuclear Deterrent”......It's to deter other Nuclear Powers from using theirs........You Nuke and we will Nuke you!...Get it?
Spain doesn't have any!......
Grow up!
27 nigelpwsmith
Aug 09th, 2013 - 04:07 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Thanks for the link,
Out of interest, the airport runway, , to small,
I saw a picture in the telegraph that showed what I think was the right side, looking at it head on, a reclaimed bit of land, I think,,,,
Could not they build the airport that side of Gibraltar to extend it to take bigger planes, a bit along the lins of hong kong.
Or am I dreaming and it cannot be done..
Just a thought..
.
@28
Aug 09th, 2013 - 04:33 pm - Link - Report abuse 0There are a lot of common misconceptions about the usage of these weapons.
When I was in the Royal Navy, quite a few of the ships carried them as anti-submarine weapons. Nuclear Depth Bombs (NDBs), or the “bucket of instant sunshine”. The weapon designation was a WE177A.
Of course we did not expect to be using NDBs unless we were hunting Soviet SSNs or SSBNs. However, there are no more WE177s as they were retired in 1998.
The sole nuclear deterrent is on the Trident boats. Each missile carries a single warhead which can be preset to a particular yield. I won't go into detail how this is done, but it would be suffice to say that it would be possible to put on the 'ultimate' fireworks display, to encourage Spain to back down. We don't need to use them to kill - just to remind the silly people who started this dispute precisely what they can do.
Back in the Eighties, I was engaged to a Spanish lady, whilst I was in the Navy. She even attended the passing out ceremony at BRNC Dartmouth. She also visited me in Gibraltar when I was in port with HMS Intrepid, so she saw quite a bit more than the tourists normally do. Even though she was a supporter of the right wing party that wanted to re-conquer Gibraltar, after her visit, she realised that it was impossible. She understood the real reason why the Rock is a major NATO base. This is also one of the reasons that the Americans would become involved. They don't want to see a conflict between two NATO partners, but it has happened in the past (Greece & Turkey), so they will call both sides to try & broker a solution.
The Government of Gibraltar will not back down though and they should not. They are completely within their rights. Cameron will have no choice but to back them. To do otherwise would be the end of his political career. So Spain must give way - or they will be humiliated publicly before the world.
If the shooting starts though - I'd keep an eye on the Middle East - Israel will attack Iran.
@31
Aug 09th, 2013 - 04:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Forget all the jingoism and look at the facts......
The UK is ranked no.5 in the World by Military strength, Spain is ranked no.30.
This is not including nuclear capability!
Who is going to back down?......Your argument doesn't make sense!
Forget you mentioned Nukes!
*6 It was good to read your comments!! somebody speaking some sense for once!! You have experienced war and you know how ugly it is !! I still remember those images of that young boy whose legs were torn off in the Iraq war...remember?? That is the reality of a useless war the suffering it causes to so many........
Aug 09th, 2013 - 04:48 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Hello again everyone,
Aug 09th, 2013 - 04:56 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Since so many of our sensationally speculative Posters appear to know more about this matter than even Mystic Meg herslf, let’s hope that good sense and of course, ubiquitous selfish commercial interest, will finally prevail.
My own view of the outcome of this lamentable impasse is moderately optimistic. For over the last century or longer; so many, many Gibraltarians have intermarried with their Spanish neighbours, that the two local parties to the dispute must almost surely be already condemned to an ultimate understanding. Of course, we all know that the bitterest of arguments occasionally occur between members of the closest-knit families. But when OUTSIDERS try to interfere and push come to shove!!!...
The obviously racist ‘Conqueror’ has scathingly claimed that “All Latinos are basically, congenitally untrustworthy” or words to that effect. May I remind him that the Gibraltarians are essentially BRITISH Latinos? Furthermore, there are some 70.000 Spaniards resident in the U.K. Ought they be made to pay for the desperate twitching kicks of the death throes of their clapped-out Capitalist controlled government, egged on by a few diehard fascist hotheads?
Also, there are some 400,000 Britons permanently living in Spain. Obviously, the British government does NOT want these people to come home –they’re mainly pensioners who by virtue of their age, would place a huge burden on the NHS, rather than on the Spanish Social Care System...
COMPLICATED, AIN’T IT!!!
Jim.
Dent put this up..
Aug 09th, 2013 - 05:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0http://www.us-uk-interventions.org/index_frames.html
could we swop….perhaps ??
http://www.us-uk-interventions.org/index_frames.html
..
@Jim
Aug 09th, 2013 - 05:37 pm - Link - Report abuse 0A recent poll on the dispute indicated that the general public are blissfully unaware of what is going on. They were equally unaware in 1982.
I was working in the research labs of ICI at the time, but as I had a military background (an instructor in the Sea Cadet Corps), I understood what was going on. One of my colleagues was leaving work for a new job at the end of the week and when he came in on Friday morning, I asked him how it felt to be leaving work on the day that Britain went to war? He gave me a quizzical look, but by the end of the day he understood. At the moment that I asked him the question, the Argentines had not yet invaded, but by the evening, they had. What this shows is that I was able to correctly work out what happened next.
These sort of disputes follow a normal progression as the politicians choose the route that enables them to appear strong to their own public without being overly aggressive to other nations.
if you apply this to Rajoy's position, you can see that he's rather boxed himself in. The go slow at the border inconveniences his own people, but most Gibraltarians are not leaving the Rock. If they make any tax selective, i.e. on British only, then that would not only be discriminatory & illegal under EU rules, but it would also be hammered for restricting free movement. The people who stand to get hurt are the Spanish.
If the EU do nothing to stop Spain (because they cannot criticise Gibraltar for placing the reef in their own waters), then it will become the sort of issue that UKIP can use to force Camoron out at the General Election.
So Camoron has to appear equally resolute with Gibraltar. This will force the United States to intervene and they will arrange tripartite talks. Gibraltar will not back down, so Spain will have to, but if they refuse to, then this will become a shooting war the moment some idiot (like the Guardia Civil did in June) shoots at a Gibraltar citizen & injures or kills them.
To: 36 nigelpwsmith (#) et al,
Aug 09th, 2013 - 07:20 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Whilst I’m sure that the Sea Cadet Corps is a most honourable and illustrious institution, I hardly feel that your former membership of that august body qualifies you to speak with such imperious authority on matters of geopolitics and global military strategy...
Regarding –GOD FORBID– the possible use of our so-called independent nuclear weapon, Trident –who on earth TRULY believes that the REAL KEY HOLDERS, the United States Government, would ever give us permission to unleash its devastating power on a supposedly civilised, fellow European state???
Anyway, it would be much cheaper and less complicated, to try knockout Spain’s all-important tourist infrastructure by Cyber-attack. Of course, such a plan of action would be just as ridiculously fanciful as the many other harebrained schemes suggested by the myriad of megalomaniac NUTTERS who delight in spouting their insane delusions on this Site.
Jim,
@37
Aug 10th, 2013 - 05:44 am - Link - Report abuse 0Actually I was in the Sea Cadet Corps from the ages 12 until I was 20. I worked my way up from a new recruit to a Cadet Instructor, one of only half a dozen in the entire country.
After working at ICI for 4 years, I went to university as a mature student and joined the Royal Navy as a seaman officer MCDO. I have served at sea and know how the forces operate. After my short career ended I went into business.
As I pointed out in previous posts, the last time a Spanish speaking country caused a confrontation, I called the events correctly all the way down the line.
Rajoy will impose the border tax next week. It is not clear whether he will impose it on all people or only the British. However, it is likely that he will have to impose it on all or it would open the tax to being discriminatory.
The British Government will take the matter to the European Court.
The EU Commission will condemn the tax, but will take no real action.
The EU Troika will tell Spain to stop the tax, but Spain will ignore them. Spain does not consider that they need a bailin at the moment or EU funds. Spain is bluffing to the EU that they are so big, that if they failed, then the Euro failed. They are telling the Troika that they have to keep the money coming or everyone goes down on the Titanic - Rich passengers (Germans) and poor alike.
Cameron will order one of the Royal Navy frigates (Westminster) to stay in Gibraltar as Guard Ship. The others will continue on exercise, but be on call if needed. An SSN or two will patrol the Spanish bases on Western Spain.
The United States will not get involved, but the President may comment on the fact that they are NATO and EU partners and matters should be resolved by discussion.
The Guardia Civil will continue to trespass in Gibraltar waters, only this time they will be met by Royal Marines in RHIBs.
Sooner or later, someone will fire a shot. Then the 'fun' begins.
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