MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Steady advance of Cristina Fernandez leadership’s contender in latest polls

Massa the ascending star of Argentine politics

Sergio Massa, mayor of Tigre in suburban Buenos Aires who is disputing Argentine President Cristina Fernandez leadership of the ruling movement by running for the Lower House in representation of the province of Buenos Aires, leads comfortably with 40% of vote intention according to the latest public opinion released on Sunday.

Management & Fit says Massa, 41, is already 12 points ahead of his Kirchnerite rival Martin Insaurralde, sponsored by Cristina Fernandez and who in the August primaries, an anticipation of the mid October election had only lost by five points.

With less that seven weeks to the vote that will renew half the Lower House and a third of the Senate seats, Massa in the pivotal province of Buenos Aires which is home of 38% of Argentina’s electorate and a ‘must-take’ province for any future presidential ambition keeps taking distance, absorbing voters from other options, while Insaurralde support erodes and can only count in having control of the hard core “K” voters, in the low twenties. 

In the primaries Insaurralde managed 29.65% of the vote with strong campaigning next to Cristina Fernandez, but according to this latest release stands at less than 27% while Massa has climbed from 35% to over 40% with 10% still undecided or unwilling to confess their vote intention.

The difference now has been confirmed both in metropolitan Buenos Aires, that part of the Argentine capital that spreads into the province, 5.4 points advantage for Massa and twenty points in the rest of Argentina’s largest and richest province.

The poll included 1.600 interviews personal and by phone in metropolitan Buenos Aires and in the rest of the province and was done last week.

Management & Fit also points out that the growth of Massa’s Renewal Front can be explained because other anti-K options are gradually moving towards him confirming the idea that October’s vote could be a kind of referendum on Cristina Fernandez administration performance and thus the ‘useful vote’ intention. Likewise a 6.7% of those who supported Insaurralde in August have said that they are willing to vote for Massa.

Next October election is crucial because Cristina Fernandez could lose control of Congress, thwarting her legislative initiatives and with only two years left can become a ‘lame duck’ president. However in this scenario the rest of the political system would have to limit her weakness to ensure no institutional surprises of breakdowns as recent Argentine history has shown.