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Montevideo, February 5th 2023 - 23:41 UTC
By Sir Ronald Sanders - BRIDGETOWN, Barbados - The internal politics of Venezuela is playing a big part in the sudden deterioration of that country’s relations with its smaller neighbor Guyana after a period of steady improvement. Read full article
Anyone reading this article, and the other today regarding the new birdbrain Office of Happiness, also see a similarity with the events around 1982 ?
Problems at home of your making that can't be corrected, which get out of hand the longer you stay in office. So you deflect local attention and unrest by allowing elements in your ungovernable country to scheme over the property, meaning resources, of others ?
With such neighbours, it should be very clear why Brasil needs more modern defense capability. Regional peace through effective firepower.
Typical, another South American country notorious for spouting anti-colonialism, themselves becoming Imperialist by wanting to colonise a country that doesn't want them there.
Did the Irish want you there, Peter?
I hope Stevie reads this. Shades of the famous Tupas Leader, another failed law student who claimed to be a lawyer and who started all the trouble in Uruguay which led directly to the Military rule of the country. And there were only 3,000 stupid bastards in the Tupas, including our Glorious leader, Pepe.
So if Guyana is not careful, the Venezuela Military will take a leaf out of the Tupas book and have a re-run.
Such is brotherly love. It’s what lefties and commies get up to in the name of “Social Inclusion”.
Send the Argentine Navy to help.Bottoms up!
So the smiles through gritted teeth from Guyana of 2 years ago was all nonsense.
It is hard to have sympathy with a socialist dump like Guyana.
Guayana has 5,8% of GDP in Defense. Yet the country could be run over by in a week or two by the Venezuelans. While negotiations continue at the UNSC and the Russians and Chinese will veto and block thr defense of Guayana and a NATO intervention, Maduro has only to send in half a million of settlers in immediately after the country is taken over and you already have a consummate fact on the ground. Piece of cake for them really. Guyana must get urgently some defense treaty with the US or with NATO if it wishes to survive. Perhaps the haven done so far because they did not want to incur in the wrath of Chavez and the other neighbors, but maybe times are starting to change....
@7 if so minded, a few missiles from the Royal Navy could take out enough of Venezuela's oil and government facilities to prompt a rapid rethink.
Having said that, given how anti-British Guyana has been, we might as well join in.
So a treaty was signed, and the issue was dead for decades, until some desperate politician revives it as a distraction to his own domestic woes.
Now where have I heard this before? Mr Peron.
@9 yes, but the victim this time actually endorsed this nonsense in the past.
@ 10 Mr Ed
@ 10 indeed Pugol-H, and when they roost, they might leave some droppings.
If Venezuela invades it will be just the excuse the USA wants. Is the Chavez shoe shine boy that stupid?
if so minded, a few missiles from the Royal Navy could take out enough of Venezuela's oil and government facilities to prompt a rapid rethink.
I think the old delusion of grandeur is kicking in. Venezuela's air defense is solid as is its air-force. Numerous modern sam systems, and su-30's.
The RN doesn't have the means to do much taking out in these circumstances.
That,s right, you tell him, but for ffs, keep quiet about the fact they have trouble wiping their asses!
15 reality check
And whatever you do, don't mention that a single T45 can kill ALL the attack planes that the little birdkeeper has, even if as they are Russian, they manage not to shred their compressor section blades.!
Oh, and the fact that low flying cruise missiles are not taken down by SAM's!
Oh, and that unless they have a leading-edge computerised gatling gun system or two they are going to experience serious heat burns, followed by oil and petrol (gasoline to the numbnuts) explosions!
Jolly good, clean, fun then, for the Brits and the US if they have the mind to do so!
@14 if the air defence is as solid as the air force, fine, they won't find the subs or see the missiles and if they sh@t bricks when attacked, at least they won't need to wipe their arses afterwards, which is becoming a major difficulty for those living in the Bolivarian Paradise.
I think that I would prefer to side with Maduro, as a world without Guyana's ruling bunch of pompous Commies would be an improvement.
Theres nothing the RN can do to hurt Venezuela.
Haha someone knows nothing about Venezuela.
Perhaps Venezuela might be able to cobble together enough spare parts to risk driving down the pot holes roads on the way to anywhere really. If collapsing bridges don't do them in, then the lack of food and toilet paper will probably do it.
A simple blockade of oil shipments out of Venezuela will cause the whole edifice to fall down.
Venezuela should study Argentina in 1982 and keep I mind what happened to those in power when they thought a short war would distract their population. The UK still chuckles about all the predictions of their impotence and inability to do anything to reverse Argentina's invasion.
Guyana is an independent country and not a Commonwealth Realm. There is no reason for the UK to do anything. But Venezuela will regret it if they do.
A simple blockade of oil
You do know Venezuela's not an island right.
Then change topic to 1982. If all else fails ...1982
As before, delusions of grandeur.
Theres nothing the RN can do to hurt Venezuela.
Of course I know Venezuela isn't an island, please don't confuse your own ignorance for that of others.
Blockading Venezuela would be quite easy as it has a single coastline with its oil facilities/ports concentrated in two major areas: Lake Maracaibo/Gulf of Venezuela and the Bay of Barcelona. It couldn't rely on a neighbouring country to export through and considering how much it relies on the hard currency that oil brings in to continually stave off riots in the streets, it would be quite a short blockade. Venezuela suffers from Dutch Disease and doesn’t manufacture anything. It would run out of toilet paper first, followed by food and the pretty much everything else that they use every single day.
As for 1982. It was not a change of topic. 1982 is the last time the RN was called to perform a seemingly impossible task in the South American region. Your argument relies on nothing and is a glib phrase that has painted you into a corner. I bet you were thinking the same thing in 1982 last time the RN could supposedly do nothing.
I stand by my analogy, of which you are naturally unable to counter.
A corrupt and undemocratic despotic regime that is facing massive economic problems is starting to heat up a long standing territorial dispute with a neighbouring country that has ties to the UK. Bereft of any actual enemies or failing in its ability to distract the population with manufactured crises, the army thinks it can perpetuate its power by scoring an easy victory with the mantra There's nothing the RN can do.
Argentina learnt the lesson the hard way when they had their delusions of grandeur. Considering the ineptitude of the government in Caracas; I don’t hold out hope of them remembering that lesson.
And the US which wouldn't mind a regime change in Venezuela will jump at the chance to help out or take the lead.
Guyana is quite safe from Venezuela.
Ha ha ha
I will like to see how long Royal navy will survive after attacking Venezuela,
Lets say a couple of hours? Or I just being so optimist?
Bit extreme talking about the Royal Navy engaging in a War with Venezuela. Why would the Royal Navy even contemplate devastating huge swathes of Venezuela with some of its Trident Nuclear Missiles over..... ahem....Guyana......doesn't make any sense.
@ 18 No Vestige of a brain.
Please read the second paragraph of my post @ 16.
Now read the paragraph below:
“The S-300VM has a maximum target detection range of up to 250 km, with aerodynamic target engagement envelope of up to 200 km (range) and altitude from 250 m. to 30 km. It can engage simultaneously up to 24 targets and up to 48 guided missiles”
This thing cannot engage targets below 250M in altitude. How does a cruise missile flying at 33M get destroyed by this overkill of a SAM? The full appraisal of the “SAM” is shown here:
Just WHEN are you going to post something that makes sense and is unarguable?
We have all been waiting for months now without seeing anything of the sort.
Let’s be serious here for a moment, the only way the RN would be involved in ops against Venezuela would be as part of a multilateral force, with UN approval (Perhaps). Very unlikely to ever get that far, I’m sure you realise that.
From a military standpoint “Venezuela's air defence is solid as is its air-force”, is what both Saddam and Gadaffi thought, and look what happened then.
And those systems were up against aircraft, what they were designed to target.
As pointed out previously, not the type of weapons Venezuela would be being attacked with.
In the event the Shitehawks did have a bash, the air defence system and the combat aircraft, would be the first things destroyed.
However the way things are going for Venezuela, it won’t be long before they are selling them for hard cash, or they are inoperable because of lack of money.
It couldn't rely on a neighboring country to export through
- why not ? What makes you think this ?
I think Venezuela could. Colombia is on its border.
Long term future relations and present trade agreements, as well as alliances such as unasur, contradict your idea. It would cost Colombia a whole lot more, long and short term, to support this blockade for the sake of the RN blockading a S.American country than to help its neighbor.
So don't count on support.
Again with the 1982. 1982 doesn't predict anything in 2013. Your logic is flawed.
Is your analogy saying that an entirely different event 30 years ago with endless different variables can be predicted based on 1 somewhat similar factor today ?
Well heres a counter - no aircraft carrier, entirely different place and time.
Im not interested in the politics of the article, good luck to Guyana. I just wanted to show up ..yet again..these delusions of grandeur. The RN is not able to do anything to hurt Venezuela, all the talk of blowing sht up is hot air.
Chris - You ask how, well .. I don't know how. Ask the Russians who designed it for that exact task of stopping cruise missiles, which you seem to think it cant do ...for no given reason. I think the rocket scientists know better than you. It also can hit aircraft in its SAM capacity. :)
Pugol - I realize that, Im only here to help out those with delusions of grandeur by correcting their 'we can blow them up' nonsense.
Sadam, Gadaffi, didn't use the s-300vm, the buk, or (for Sadam) the upgraded s-125.
They also didn't have su-30's. And the Americans were there, and it involved a land war.
Anyway - they could just duct-tape a few British tourists to the top of each refinery, send the bbc a tape, lets see them blow anything up. ;D :D
(oh and this attempted blockade would be stopping pre-paid Chinese oil - thats *their* oil, their money and if the RN's taking it Britain will be paying for it)
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