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The Economist: Cristina Fernández should build bridges to her opponents, or risk leaving office early

Tuesday, November 5th 2013 - 07:17 UTC
Full article 65 comments

Under the heading of 'Cristina’s come-uppance', The Economist comments the result of the midterm election in Argentina and makes a forecast of the possible future scenarios in the next two years Read full article

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  • nigelpwsmith

    Argentina needs to dump the Kirchners altogether, before the rest of the world decides to dump Argentina!

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 10:22 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • pgerman

    The best thing that can happen is to have her ruling the country for two additional years until 2015.

    I would enjoy seeing her facing the problems she created. Otherwise, a new president, most probably for other party will have to try to solve them.

    In addition, Argentine people must, grow up and become an adult and think well before choosing presidents.

    Let's enjoy CFK and her “team” until 2015....

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 12:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Anglotino

    History will be the judge and it won't be kind.

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 12:24 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • pgerman

    The peronist oligarchy will have to take responsibility of what they had done....

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 12:44 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Usurping Pirate

    Now that her Vice Chancellorship at LSE is confirmed , her legacy is assured.
    I wonder if she will accept ?

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 12:45 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    I think History will peg Crissy as another Isabel Peron.
    A wife put in charge simply based on sympathy and legacy, totally out of her depth that ended up setting the country up for a generation or 2 of utter failure.

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 01:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • CabezaDura

    She can’t reach out to her opponents, it’s not her style. They don’t dialogue the only thing they know doing is impose their will and lie. She is going to hit the wall, Cristina can only comfort herself by the fact that she will be not forced out of power like De la Rua because everybody is waiting for the AJUSTE and MASS SINCERATION of the economy under her term, for they don’t want to pay the political price of the Kirchnerite party. She should pay the bills and rightly so. Once reality imposes itself the helicopter will be at the roof of the Casa Rosada, just like the Americans evacuated the embassy Saigon.
    Hopefully her next stop will be Comodoro Py…

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 01:32 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Conqueror

    Best option would be to follow the Italian example. Piano wire, meat hooks and lamp posts. The “Mussolini” route. With one slight amendment. Don't shoot her first!

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 01:35 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • nigelpwsmith

    Have to agree. Better to let her hang upside down from the lamp post until her head explodes!

    She has done so much damage to Argentina, she's robbed them, she's ruined their reputation and people under her control have committed murder.

    On second thoughts, hanging is too good for her. Slow roasting over an open fire would be my choice, followed by dipping in a bath of concentrated sulphuric acid.

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 03:10 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • manchesterlad

    It wouldn't surprise me if we have already seen the end of CFK, rumour has it that she suffered a stroke with facial paralysis, speech loss & a blood clot on the brain all being obvious symptoms...... it's hard to imagine anyone coming back after that

    Also I'm surprised that I haven't heard any of the Kamporistas blaming her problems on the US......maybe the CIA have been zapping her with neutron radiation like they did to Chavez ???

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 03:42 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The Truth PaTroll

    Nothing will happen. Mendoza has never had riots of any kind, not in 1989, not in 2001. Our economy is well diversified in petroleum and refining, fine wine production, wine tourism, services related to the Buenos Aires-Santiago route, ski tourism, adventure tourism, regional shopping destination, metallurgic industries, organic products, hydroelectric and wind power machinery, bottled water industries, light aircraft construction, honey, agro-industry (marmelades, jams, canned items), and we have reserves of shale oil, and some mining although much of still saved for future generations.

    That is a formidable diversification. AND whenever there is a devaluation, we benefit from the temporary surge of tourists unlike any other Argentine city.

    That is why Mendoza is always better off in good times, and resistant to social probles in bad times.

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 03:46 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @11 (I'm all right Jack) Has the news of the problems in your region not reached you yet?

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 04:16 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • GeoffWard2

    It is not in anybody's interest that Argentina should collapse totally.

    The economic - and therefore societal - collapse will be more fundimental than that of the Soviet Union because all Argentina's 'family silver' is being sold off or appropriated.

    It will be more fundimental than the problems experienced by the UK when it was driven to the bankrupt-brink by the 'socialists' (“Good luck, there is nothing left!”).

    Argentina *could* survive its coming fundimental collapse because it will refuse to recognise that it is happening (see TTT #11).
    It could regress a couple of centuries like North Korea, bringing absolute levels of poverty to the people but putting taxation monies into ballistic weapons - like North Korea. And, like North Korea, it will inevitably become a military state to try and hold the state together.

    Argentina's national delusion of grandeur might see it through.

    But will the nations of the Southern Cone allow back such a damaged nation, and help it to learn to cope with the demands of the modern world in the 21st century?

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 04:42 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • CabezaDura

    @13 I disagree Argentina will definitely take a hit and most common folk who have voted and believed in her will be bite the dust. There will be a mass devaluation and the subsidies in transport, energy and child care will be removed, privatizations of rubbish public companies like AA,FPT, etc will be conducted. None of this will happen due to ideological reasons but out of simple necessity.

    However a massive amount of capital and investment will flood in, and I believe the economy will at very grow at fast rates and the country will be back on track in no time.

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 05:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Usurping Pirate

    @11 : Quote “ Mendoza has never had riots of any kind ”

    Liar liar , pants on fire :

    http://www.lavoz.com.ar/sucesos/matan-un-taxista-en-mendoza-y-hay-protestas 4 days ago

    http://www.lavoz.com.ar/sucesos/matan-un-taxista-en-mendoza-y-hay-protestas last year

    http://www.lavoz.com.ar/sucesos/matan-un-taxista-en-mendoza-y-hay-protestas june 2013

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 05:10 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @13 I completely agree that no one wants to see a country collapse. Even if the government of that country is responsible it is the people that suffer, especially the middle class. In our globalised world the ripples will affect more than just Argentines.

    @14 I think the recovery will be slower than previous collapses. Sure the opportunists will come in to pick up cheap property and assets after the collapse. I know people that picked up fantastic properties at a snip last time ( the idea never sat well with me). The problem this time will be the complete lack of trust.

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 05:42 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The Truth PaTroll

    @15

    I understand that in the UK “peaceful protests” are called “riots” by the government, and most British have been convinved that is the case. Thus you no longer have the right to freedom of protest without being peppered sprayed, cannon-watered, electrically tased, or arrested.

    But in Argentina, the right of peaceful protest remains.

    None of what you posted are riots, i.e, people destroying property, looting supermarkets, or setting fires.

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 06:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @17 The problem with your 'understanding' is that you have no actual experience. You pick out random items on the internet to try to make a point and generally fail miserable by over-egging the pudding.

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 06:19 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    @The E

    The Ecoterrorist since 2003 was saying that the Arg. Economy was catastrophic and was predicting all kind of disasters that never materialised.

    Now they admit “Their main weapon was a booming economy”

    Wow they don’t even remember what they were writing before.

    “They were fortunate to preside over a surge in the world prices of farm exports from the bountiful Pampas”

    Someone that write this it is obvious that have no clue about Arg. Economy and is just making articles on “Clarin Miente” and “La Destrucción”.

    Well after all who cares only idiots that use a bigCrap as an Index to measure PPP can take this magazine serious.

    Well to be honest I saw someone of these idiots around here claiming to be economist and working with central banks but not able to read a balance.

    “The most closely watched statistic in Buenos Aires is the level of usable international reserves—which, at around 25 billion dollars, are barely enough to last two years on present trends.”

    Wrong again reserves USD 34bn and not 25bn

    “... and settling with holdout bond investors and Repsol”

    Ah! in the end the EcoTerrorist has showed its real intention “lobbing for vulture funds and crappy corporations”

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 06:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • pgerman

    “The most closely watched statistic in Buenos Aires is the level of usable international reserves—which, at around 25 billion dollars, are barely enough to last two years on present trends.”......ahhhh..ha ha ha ha !!!!

    25 billion dolars IN CASH? ha ha ha ha ha ha....yeahhhh your mother..that's the reason why they wanted to ”capture“ 4 billion narco-dollars with bonds and failed.

    Not even the ”Escobar Gabirias” of the region trust them.

    Anyway, after all they are drug-lords...they are no idiots.

    I told you several months ago that this figure is just an illusion based on adding private money, bonds, titles, fake credits etc that are useless to buy energy or to make investments in public works.

    Let's face the truth...your party is over !!!!..tic tac tic tac

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 06:45 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    If they had anywhere near what they claim in cash they wouldn't be having problems wiring U$ for the LNG shipments.
    Didn't they lose 2 ships last month because they couldn't pay in time?

    Dany is either really stupid, a shill or both.

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 06:52 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • pgerman

    Ahhh Dany he still owes me an explanation. I remember it quite well.

    He wrote that the monetary base of a country can be increased in the same size of the Gross Product of a country annually without causing inflation...but he have never explainned this theory..just some offensive words acusing me of being an stupid person....quite a peronist attitude

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 06:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • CabezaDura

    Forgive me for my wishful thinking but I believe the rapid growth in post 2001 was due to agricultural exports which dollars were used to inflate the housing market as there was no alternative to invest. This created a bubble powered in part by the land owners and the real estate business (in my opinion a bunch of greedy bastards the lot of them who contribute a fair share of inflation). However if the next government creates opportunities and the environment for investment in productivity (small and medium scale business, that contribute the bulk of job demand), know how and technology then Argentina can make a qualitative jump in development, than the last recovery.
    We have a very small proportion of debt hanging over our GDP nowadays. Whenever they get Vaca Muerta pumping and generating revenues that will ease the weight of the state on the agricultural sector.

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 07:05 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • pgerman

    @23 you are quite an optimistic person.

    Argentina has plenty of structural imbalances to overcome them with revenues of oil and crops in a couple of years....

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 07:38 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Briton

    Argentines have begun to lose faith in the Kirchner model??

    Did you really expect them to believe a woman with no experience can actually build a bridge..lolol.?
    .

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 07:41 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • CabezaDura

    @24 That’s why I said in comment #14 that this will only happen after a massive crises and adjustment of the economy there will be a fast recovery.

    However this was really a lost decade no question about that, we won’t have another opportunity like that one that has sliped from us, yet if we do things reasonably well in the future we well get along just fine.

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 07:55 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    26. CD, it will take at least a generation to recover from the destruction the Ks have done your the economy and the country's balance sheet.
    Neither Soy or Oil can get you out of the mess they created.
    Commodiities are cyclical, you won't see the high prices again for awhile.
    Plus you've destroyed your best farmland, you are almost at a place where you can't turn it around.
    Oil will take at least a decade to get into production AFTER the Ks are gone.
    There needs to be structural changes in your society before you can be trusted again.
    The problem with Argentina is its people. In general you are corrupt and lazy. It took Pinochet a generation to fix Chile and I think Argentina needs the same medicine.

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 08:45 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Conqueror

    @14 I think you'll find that any company that indicates an interest in “investing” in argieland will swiftly hear from its shareholders. I wouldn't “invest” 10 pence in argieland. Given its history, I would hope that there will be NO investment in argieland until CFK, and her “family” and sycophants, are dead and Peronism is destroyed. And don't look for “aid” either. Spend the US$95 billion you stole!
    @17 Your “denials” don't hold water. What else would you say? The trouble with failing tyrannies is that they never know when to keep their mouths shut. Not that we care. Watching all 40 million of you starving to death would be fun. Haven't forgotten 255 dead British servicemen, see. I reckon 157,000 argies per Brit is fair.
    @19 Insights from an argie “refugee”! Go back where you came from. Or are the welfare benefits to good?
    @23 You think US$90 billion is a small amount of debt? It's around 12% of the GDP you used to have.
    @26 Be realistic. You are going to suffer. And it is well-deserved. You need some humility. Look around the world. You can see countries, nations, with a thousand years more experience. And yet “you” know best. Precisely the attitude that got you where you are. You think that, after argieland is forced to pay NML, other bondholders aren't going to move heaven and earth to get their money back? Learn humility. It “might” save you from the worst.

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 09:44 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • CabezaDura

    @27
    I think a lot of that I your own wishful thinking, prices of commodities not just of soy and oil will remain high comparatively to the ones we had during the 1990s for some foreseeable future at least for this decade, but I think that they will be dropping somewhere in the middle of it . It was more or less ok back then. The problem during the 90s was the amount of deficit the Provinces had and the high cost of Argentina which was maintaining its currency parity with the US dollar.
    We were relatively ok in terms with our relations with the world back then and we don’t have a heavy weight of debt per capita no longer…And I’m not talking about too long ago.

    Plus there is also milk, beef, pork, chicken, and alternative productions which have value added to grain and crops. The problem is that farmers have being cornered into doing only soybean; we have talked about this already. The only thing they need is some breathing space to start fertilizing and going into other stuff apart from soy bean.
    We are much more creative and witty than the other LATAM societies and they have done very well in recent years so we have an even greater potential.
    Chile and NZ are energy dependent and have a robust agricultural sector. So it’s not the end of the world.
    Everybody know what needs to be done here the problem is that telling the truth scares the votes away, and historically there is was lack of political will to do it. Now it will have to be done by necessity

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 09:45 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    29. The change should have been done by necessity in 2001 alas it didn't happen. You do have other ag products but you can not run a modern country solely exporting ag products.
    It is impossible.
    You are trading something that comes out of the ground for some sort of technology.
    Argentinians must learn to work, hard and cheaply until this mess is fixed.
    I am afraid it is not possible with the Society's current morale.

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 10:57 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    @pgerman

    I give up since long time ago talking about economy with people like you that cannot read a balance sheet and have never produce everything and repeat what shitty biased media says and that is complete wrong.

    So keep going on your debate about soy and agro business that make me laugh.

    Just by having 2 fingers of grey material you will realise that agribusiness only represent in reality 7% (USD 35bn) of Argentina’s GDP what is currently more than 500bn.

    Its not a figure from INDEC or Moreno, you can obtain this figure and also inflation reported by each province through their independent body of the economy ministry in USD measure in constant price from 1993 (no inflation no distortion there) GGP.

    That also explain why the richest states are Buenos Aires and CABA (Buenos Aires as a whole) that produce close to the 60% of the total GDP and together with Córdoba, Santa Fe, Mendoza and San Luis represent the 80% of the GDP.

    What all these province have more or less in common?

    Industries and service sector and the rest? Based agro poor economies and raw material exploitation that don’t produce add value, jobs, etc. just exportation of poor to rich provinces.

    And please don’t come with the stupid explanation that a tractor and a pickup/van etc. are produced by the agribusiness as the idiot Enrique Szewach tried to explain in a interview with another economists.

    This is complete idiocy...

    So please explain to us how a country with more than 500bn of GDP with 17m labour force can be driven by a poor 7% of agree business that only produce 35bn and only employs low pay 150k workers?

    So the “tailwind” tale from Aranda (clarin shareholder and agri-producer) & co is just a tale for “idiots” that cannot make a simple addition.

    So learn something first and then may be we can have a conversation about currency, money supply, banks, forex, etc.

    SYL or not

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 11:22 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • golfcronie

    @31
    “ a country with more than 500bn” Is the 500bn inUS$, dont think so, if it was do you not think that Argi could pay back the bond holders and have a little to spare. I think you need to go over your figures again, where did you get your figures , INDEC Jesus Christ you muppet.

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 11:34 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • CabezaDura

    @30 The changes were not implemented from 2001 because there was a political crisis and Kirchnerism brainwashed the people that the 1990s were responsible for the crisis and that the solution to the country’s woes was by doing statist populism paid by the agricultural exports…

    Living off the ground… Listen it has being done so far the problem is that these guys in charge can make even Saudi Arabia go bankrupt.

    Argentina is barely 40 million odd and it has the capacity to produce food to over 3 times that amount. It’s not like the US which despite being a bread basket of the world it has 300 million people of its own to feed. So that gives us an interesting leverage. The problem is having to know how to use it.
    Most of the Agro knowhow and tech is already available in Argentina.

    WORK ETHICS
    Can I say that we study as hard as the Japanese, work as hard the Germans?? No, but then we can afford to do so.
    The proof for that is that we are not working in overcrowded factories for junk wages like they are in Thailand, Indonesia, India and Mexico..

    Blessings of Mother Nature…

    Nov 05th, 2013 - 11:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • pgerman

    Did all of you noticed that DanyBerger has the tendency to write “idiot”?

    He repeated “idiot” several times...this is a typical “democratic” peronist attitude. In addition, it seems that he is angry.

    Dany, Dany...you wrote that “I have never produced anything”...by the way..I have never been a public employee, I have never received a peso or a CAD in subsidies, I have always earned what I have eaten with my work and effort.

    In addition, my father, who was engineer like I am, was the owner of small business and passed away, at the age of 78 years old, after arriving home back from his job. He was 78 years old !!!

    I'm not lazy so I don't receved a coin from CFK so I don't owe her anything. I can talk freely.

    In addition, if you had the chance to understand the most basic concepts of economy you wouldn't write the kind of things you usually write. So, it was you who wrote that a country can increase its monetary base the size of its GP annually. It was you !!!

    So, if you know you lie and you wrote nonsenses it's not my fault. It's yours.

    By the way, have you been checking figures in the BCRA site lately? For sure it would be nice to see CFK “doing magic” to finish her second term...

    Nov 06th, 2013 - 02:28 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Anglotino

    Oh did Dany post?

    And it was about GDP again! Yeah well he has an awfully incomplete understanding of economics. Let me guess. Argentina has a big GDP and lying about GDP growth and inflation has had no effect.

    Nov 06th, 2013 - 03:46 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    @golfcronie

    I don’t have to go back to my figures again first because are not mine figures otherwise are the reported data by each independent state economy ministry body that have each state and is reported in constant prices base 1993 (I hope you understand what this means) as GGP. So no Moreno, No INDEC or nothing that can put in doubt that figures.

    At least you believe that anti Ks govt. like De la Sota (Córdoba) Rodriguez Saa (San Luis) Binner (Santa Fe), Macri (CABA) etc. report fake inflate figures to help Cristina govt.

    @ CabezaDura

    Your view is totally wrong and perverse I have to pay more taxes in % than any mayor agribusiness exploitation in Argentina like any other good & service producer. The problem is the “el campo” is bad accustomed to don’t pay any taxes and have no controls as we have from AFIP. They used to sell all in “negro” as is called in Arg. They’ve got cheap credits in cash from the nation, the got special credit line, seeds and pay later, the have INTA that we all pay for it, etc, etc that we all pay.

    And what we got for supporting this shit?
    You are right in one thing Menen was not the only responsible for the mess this come from the military era that imposed in Argentina exactly the same policy that you are claming now, lets say “campo” and borrowing abroad.

    So would you like to live from the campo? OK you will have only 35bn to share with 40m people so this means no pensions, no roads, no schools, no health, no nothing. Campo = misery.

    Thailand will be a paradise compared with Argentina only campo.

    @ pgerman

    I’m not angry idiot and you?
    Engineer on what do you know something about delta robots, CNM, etc?

    I want to set up a new business to manufacture CNMs in Argie land but I think I will wait to Argentina collapse so I will hire you for AR$700 pesos at months.

    Hey mate just business you know?

    @AngoloLatino

    Coming from you that are unemployed it is a compliment...
    Good luck in Colombia avoiding hunger in DownUnder?

    Nov 06th, 2013 - 07:51 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Anglotino

    Oh Dany how cute.

    Your understanding of my employment situation is as incomplete as your understanding of Argentina's GDP.

    Guess that just proves your inability to actually read and retain anything. No surprise to the rest of us.

    Nov 06th, 2013 - 10:20 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • CabezaDura

    DanyVerga

    Agribuisness and derivates is the only one that brings dollars into the country apart from the cars we assemble here in Cordoba and sell over to Brazil.

    No other sector generates any revenues for the country. You live of bloody rents of inflated flats and property in BsAs. You are bloody parasites you are, and you are to blame for inflation, it is you that Moreno should come armed to your door and make sure your increase in the contracts each year is below 5% not 20 nor 30% ..... BsAs= “Un kiosco al lado del otro” Services, retail etc don’t generate anything for the country they just refunnel around the revenues the farmers generate into the rest of the economy

    http://yaesta.blogspot.com.ar/2013/11/superavit-comercial-por-sector-7-24.html

    We pay the taxes sure enough more than you do, You are not even close to the 80% farmers in the Province of Buenos Aires pay up in taxes now shut up and be a good bitch

    Nov 06th, 2013 - 11:48 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • pgerman

    DanyBerger

    Your explanation, and your acceptance, that without the taxes the farm industry pays Argentina will be like Thailand (by the way Thailand has plenty of manufacturing industries now) is a “proof of the success” of the peronist government policies.

    Your bad manners, your insults and angriness are a proof of your frustration due to the failure of the peronist government policies. It's not our fault. I have never voted a peronist candidate. Blame it to CFK, Nestor K, Carlos Menem and Duhalde..they are corrupt people all of the same kind.

    In addition, you won't be able to hire me for AR$ 700 because I'm living outside Argneitna now. I'm living in a country where individual freedom and rights are much more respected than in Argentina. On top of this there is little corruption, reasonable economic policies.....and the most important...,....there is no peronism at all !!!

    By the way, start checking BCRA official data, along with actual data about unemployment, GP growth, inflation and life quality and equality. What is coming is not good at all...you will enjoy it blaming about it to Clarin, the farm industry, the IMF, the “empire” and the people who save in dollars....

    Nov 06th, 2013 - 12:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    Dany is like most Rgs, never planning, never questioning, never realizing they are heading into an abyss until it is far too late.

    Soy/Car Export Revenue may not be enough to pay for fuel next year. Tourist U$ are sucking away a lot of BCRA funds too. There's not too much left now.
    Maybe Crissy will let Arg borrow from her personal accounts.
    Probably not though

    Nov 06th, 2013 - 02:39 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • CabezaDura

    Thats correct

    This juicy graphic is very clear...
    http://www.urgente24.com/220585-para-ir-avisandole-a-cristina-la-soja-no-revertira-el-drenaje-de-reservas

    I think we will have to cut back the subsidies and the imports, only have preferential tariffs for fuel for the agricultural sector. The tourist drain will end when the official dollar goes to AR$10. Mass transport in Bs.As like busses pay and cars from the service station must pay what they pay in the rest of the world.

    Nov 06th, 2013 - 03:25 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    @CabezaDura

    What is “derivates”?

    If total production of agriculture represents 7% of total GDP that gives me around 35bn and most of that production is for internal consumption. Because 40m people have to eat right?

    Argentina exports more than 80bn annually, right?

    Total exports of grains 38M tons (16Mt Corn, 12Mt Soy and 4Mt wheat) data BCR
    Corn U$s 3,152.bn
    Soy U$s 5,544 bn
    Wheat U$s 0,98bn
    Total grain export U$s 9,676bn

    U$s 80bn - U$s 9,676bn= U$s 70,324bn that you cannot explain from your “El Campo Tale”

    Can you see why I laugh about your affirmations.

    Now lets see cars...

    80% of the cars made in Argentina are sold internally and not exported.

    From Jan to Oct 2013 the sector sold 842.159 units in Argentina.

    I searched for a source that you cannot refute “La Voz del Interior” anti K from Córdoba and belongs to “Clarin Miente” and “La Destrucción”
    http://www.lavoz.com.ar/negocios/en-10-meses-ya-se-vendieron-mas-0-km-que-en-todo-2012

    So in the same period 332.000 vehicles where exported (source Carmakers industry).
    I give you a generous FOB value of USD10.000 for each unit exported.

    And we have just as little U$s 3.32bn so lets say that they can export some 66k units more (average) you can add another U$s0.660bn total exports = U$s3,98bn

    So total export of agriculture and cars= U$s13,656

    You still have $66,344bn that cannot explain with your “relato”

    Can you see that your “tale” have holes everywhere?

    “80% farmers in the Province of Buenos Aires...”
    Explain me the 80% taxes that “el campo” pays please. If you can of course...

    BTW the article of your link was wrote by Economía & Regiones the owner is Rogelio Frigerio from PRO (Macri) ha ha

    @ pgerman

    ha ha where is such fantasy land place? Venus?

    @yankeeboy

    Ha ha ha you are just funny....
    have you ever thought in something intelligent to say?

    I guess not so keep eating burritos and dancing salsa in Miami...

    Nov 06th, 2013 - 05:23 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • CabezaDura

    Why do you LIE verga???

    http://www.mecon.gov.ar/peconomica/dnper/Complejos%20Exportadores%20provinciales%202011%20ve.pdf

    Nov 06th, 2013 - 05:46 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • pgerman

    @42

    I was quite young when Argentina and the UK fought the war but I remember perfectly well that the Junta lied officially informing the whole population that Argentina was winning the war.

    In a sudden, in previous days (in just a couple of days) to the surrender they were forced to “whiten” the truth. So, most of the population can still remember that “we were winning until the last two days when Argentina was defeated”

    During the Presidency of De La Rua, when the Economy Minister was the peronist Domingo Cavallo, the economic collapse was also fiercely denied by the Ministers, the media...until the day when people were informed that couldn't take their savings out of the Banks.

    Now, with the very same attitude, you are always trying to deny the truth...so people will wake up one day, read the news and notice that the crisis has “suddenly” arrived.

    There is something in our leading class that make them try to change the reality until it's impossible to hide. That' the reason why average people don't rely on “the official story” and run to protect themselves by buying dollars.

    You are denying that the actual inflation is 25%, that the BCRA reserve is made of painted and useless papers, that the funds for the retired people were looted...keep on.!!!..until you won't be able to hide it...“we were winning until the last two days when Argentina was defeated”

    Nov 06th, 2013 - 08:24 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • MagnusMaster

    @38 nice blog you linked there. An excellent example of Peronist economics.

    Nov 07th, 2013 - 12:06 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    @CabezaDura

    You said:
    #23 CabezaDura: “growth in post 2001 was due to agricultural”

    #29 CabezaDura “prices of commodities not just of soy...”

    Then you include cars, etc.

    And now you are using a statistic from K Govt. INDEC make by Moreno after you’ve been saying that are pure lies to refute me and to say that I’m lying?

    Well let’s see...
    You always were referring to “el campo relato” (farming sector tale) and the “tailwind relato” from “el campo”, “Clarin Miente” and la “destrucción” to explain the economy success of Argentina in the last 10 years.

    Then you confuse industrial sectors with farming (campo) and cars with heavy vehicles, spare parts, body and frame, gearbox, plastic parts, tires, electronics, etc parts for vehicles as cars.

    To make Aspirin (medicine) you need “acetylsalicylic acid”, “acetic acids”, cellulose, etc.

    So according with your logic that is farming and forestry and not pharmaceutical industry.

    This statistic shows exports by regional industrial and farming complex so is all mixed.

    “Sector Automotriz” exports involves all what is required to make vehicles and not just cars so in there are tires, plastic manufactures, auto parts manufactures, gearboxes, instruments, B&F, electronics components, accessories for vehicles, etc.

    Oil from soy or sunflower or whatever, like biodiesel, Polylactic acid, etc. are not “El Campo” (farmers) exports because require industrialisation to make them so is industrial export.

    So if a farmer exports just potatoes is a “el campo” export (commodity).

    But if someone buys potatoes from the farmer and produces Polylactic acid with it to export, industry export and no farming export.

    So still farming exports (soy, wheat, corn, etc) U$s 9,676bn to U$s10bn

    So still vehicles A and B class only 332.000 exported.
    So still Buenos Aires exports more that the rest of the country because is the most heavy industrialised area.
    So still BUE region represents 60% of 500bn ARG GDP.

    @Pgerman
    And your point is?

    Nov 07th, 2013 - 04:12 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • pgerman

    It is really touching to see the obstinacy, and fanaticism, of the Peronists trying to prove what does not exist or is false.

    Inflation does not exist (“the food prices didn't rise in the last three years” declared the Secretary of Commerce to the media), Central Bank reserves are as they are officially declared (according to Central Bank President “there is enought reservs in the Central Bank”), unemployment does not exist, Argentina grows at rates similar to those of China, etc, etc, etc.....all lies

    Luckily the founding fathers of the nation gave us a republican and liberal National Constitution so heads of state have to be replaced every eight years or two terms .....

    Dany ... CFK time has gone ... she the past and the present .....but the future belongs to other Peronists moguls, Massa, Scioli, etc .... make your bet and choose one of them (to be his/her pimp) just in case he/she wins so you asure a well piad job from 2015 onwards ...

    Nov 07th, 2013 - 12:29 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Usurping Pirate

    @47 : Massa , Scioli and a host of others cannot alter certain facts .
    1 ) Argentina steadfastly refuses to accept it's in the third world.
    2 ) There is an unemployable mob of millions in all the big cities .
    3 ) This mob keeps getting bigger due to the birthrate and illegal immigration from Paraguay , Peru and Bolivia .
    4 ) These people have to be fed , kept warm and kept amused , be it with drugs , football para todos or whatever .
    5 ) They cannot be employed , because that means an acceptance of neo liberalism , globalization , foreign capitalistic interests , acquiring a work ethic and acceptance that Argentina is in the 3rd Division .
    6 ) The money for their planes sociales cannot simply come from agro exports, because each year more and more is required to feed the mob,so AFIP have put the squeeze on the middle class and tax rates now are some of the highest in the Western world .
    So , all the able , ambitious , educated people leave and you are left with the lazy , the cynical , the corrupt and the masses .
    What is the answer ?
    Damned if I know .....

    Nov 07th, 2013 - 07:52 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • CabezaDura

    Dany Verga that’s the Ministerio de Economia numbers, not INDEC, the government YOU sopport and it’s in their interest to portrait the exports as a “industrial” when clearly they are not...The numbers and graphics speaks louder than any of the LIES you said.

    Nov 08th, 2013 - 12:51 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • British_Kirchnerist

    Love her or loathe her, I think we can all agree cristina won't do a thing just because the Economist advises it =) As for reaqching out, not a bad idea, but not to the sorts the Economist would like; I hope Nestor's transversal left project is revived more fully, to create a united left front going into the 2015 elections to make sure neoliberals like Massa Macri and Scioli don't sneak in by the backdoor (of course some non-Peronist leftists are with Cristina's camp even now, like Zanini and Alicia Castro, while the extreme personal animus Victoria Donda and perhaps others have seemed to show to Cristina recently makes the prospect of a treansversal front with them difficult)

    #5 Pity you're only referring to a joke on here; I'd love to welcome Cristinita to the UK, whether as Vice-Chancellor, Ambassador etc. And whats more so would many others I know =)

    Nov 08th, 2013 - 01:29 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    @pgerman

    Will you ever try to post something intelligent and with a proper argument instead to post “political Propaganda”?

    I have nothing to do with the K, govt or whatever you wrongly believe.
    The problem with you is that you don’t like to hear anything that does not fit your dogma, ideology or personal interest or just pure ignorance.

    So don't be lazy and make your own research instead to read headlines articles from “Clarinete” and “La destrucción”.

    Ah! I forgot you don't even live in Argentina...

    @CabezaDura

    The problem with you its just plain ignorance that’s all, like happen with your partner above pgerman.

    INDEC is part of Mecon (Ministry of Economy and Public Finances) who do you think makes the statistics Lorenzino?

    Also INDEC is responsible of the co-ordination of the SEN to whom municipalities, provinces, etc. reports own figures to makes the statistics.

    So these figures comes from INDEC (Moreno) like all official data.

    Again you don’t understand anything and you want to teach others about economy, exports, imports, currency, etc. because you have read it in LA Nacion, Clarinete or shitty Articles from The Economist.

    “Dany Verga that’s the Ministerio de Economia numbers, not INDEC, the government YOU sopport and it’s in their interest to portrait the exports as a “industrial” when clearly they are not”

    I don’t support any govt. as you believe I just support myself and my own interests and my interest are not the same as yours. I think people called it democracy and freedom to exercise my will.

    Please give me just one example of one export that according with you it is not industrial and is another thing.

    Just one example until then your asseveration is just crap.

    And please before you make the ridiculous don’t come with the silly example that a tractor is farmer export because is use in a farm.

    Only an idiot can believe that. With that criteria all would be IT exports.

    SYL when you find the example waiting and anxious...

    Nov 08th, 2013 - 03:26 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Anglotino

    ”INDEC is part of Mecon (Ministry of Economy and Public Finances) who do you think makes the statistics Lorenzino?”

    My bet is the work experience kid MAKES the statistics.

    Because it's been proven that they sure as hell aren't collating statistics.

    Nov 08th, 2013 - 04:29 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • CabezaDura

    @51 When the official statistics and data suggest a high degree of “primarización de las exportaciones” its pretty much a end game. You don’t recognize Clarin, La Nacion, The Economist, and now not even the ministry of the government you support, so in the end this is pretty much a mute conversation al final no hay pija que te guste a vos…..

    Apart from the fact that its vox populi in the interior that El Campo mueve todo, it’s the only genuine source of external revenues the country has, and certainly no other sector pays as much tax in the economy.

    Nov 08th, 2013 - 12:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Usurping Pirate

    In the photo Cristina can be seen holding a magic wand .
    She uses that to make inflation disappear , along with the millions of Euros that get stuffed into planes holds every month .

    Nov 08th, 2013 - 12:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • GeoffWard2

    Yeah, UP,

    but you could also see that her husband also had one eye on the wand.

    Pretty soon Harry Potter ruled, and only later did his Hermione get her chance to use the wand on her Tormentors. ... then all went Dark Arts.

    Nov 08th, 2013 - 01:19 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • pgerman

    @50

    “I hope Nestor's transversal left project is revived more fully, to create a united left front going into the 2015 elections” .

    This is really quite funny...there is nothing more conservative than the peronist party.

    The Peronist Party was born as a nazionalist catholic movement copied from Italy...and now the would like to show off they are “leftist”...

    They modified the National Constitutions twice to keep things stable..she wanted to change the NC for her re-re-election to keep things are they are now.

    @Dany

    This is the usual thing seems to be fashion nowadays in Argentina.....“i'm not peronist, or CFK follower, but I must admit that...she made things nobody has ever done...bla bvla bla !!”.

    You can also say..“I have always been from leftist parties but CFK convinced me that..bla bla bla”.

    It seems that you, peronist, start being ashamed of being CFK followers.

    I cannot write anything intelligent because I'm not an intelligent person. I cannot discuss with you about economic figures because they are all distorted and you will not recognize any of them.

    I cannot discuss with you anything from the reason becuase you are the typical peronist that likes tales and would always prefer to show you as victims of the “empire”. This is pure, primitive and basic mesianism. .

    Nov 08th, 2013 - 04:46 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • CabezaDura

    #56
    In effect, we already start seeing the “yo no los vote” types…It is not the first time this happens. When the time will come to pick up the pieces of the country like recognizing that many people wanted to see Isabelita Peron taken down by the military, the masses cheering Galtieri, the folk in 2001 that never voted for Carlos Menem, etc. These people never recognize the responsibility of their own faults in what they supported.
    The populist will blindely follow Politian’s adventures and the conceptions they sell when things are going OK, but in defeat and failure it will only be the fault of the politicians who will die in loneliness and condemned by history and society just like happened to Videla, Galtieri and will happen soon with Menem, and of course the people that stood by them say.....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btVNiC7aReY

    Nov 08th, 2013 - 05:54 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    @CabezaDura

    Sorry, but you are the person that have been putting in doubt the INDEC statistics.

    But when you believe that the same statistics are convenient to keep your “campo Relato” suddenly the same statistics are fine.

    If you just even read the publication, you would realised clears says “Secretario de Comercio Interior Lic. Guillermo Moreno” among others like “Dr. Axel Kicillof”

    Then you have a chart of evolution of the exports by region expressed in % and as total of national export where clear also says that Buenos Aires represents represent the 47,6 % of the exports of the region with U$s28,034bn over a total export region of U$s58.948.
    34,2% o total national exports over U$s 81.957bn

    While Córdoba only represent 17,8% of the export of the region and just little 12,8% of national exports with U$S10.497bn even Santa Fe surpass Cordoba in exports with 30,2% and 21,7% with U$s17.774bn exports.

    Fist proof that crash your lie “Buenos Aires= “a Kiosk” and “Services, retail etc don’t generate anything for the country they just refunnel around the revenues the farmers generate into the rest of the economy your affirmation that thanks to Cordoba...”

    In other graphic you can appreciate that total exports of Córdoba of grains (campo) just only U$s1,12bn.

    Do you know how much had exported last year the IT sector (software, etc) mostly based in Buenos Aires?
    U$s1bn

    Well we can go like this all day and 2000 chars no enough to show your stupidity.

    “suggest a high degree of “primarización de las exportaciones” its pretty much a end game”

    Not it is not a game is just to understand what that means before open your mouth.

    Oil or biodisel exports are not an agriculture product because need industrialisation like a mobile phone export is not a mineral, crude oil, etc export even if silicon and oil is used to produce the ABS plastic and silicon for the chips.

    “certainly no other sector pays as much tax in the economy”
    You are wrong as always.

    Nov 09th, 2013 - 02:40 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • CabezaDura

    Verga I use the Ministry of Economy’s numbers because I assume you will accept those, INDEC measures other data which is far more sensitive for the government. You cant deny that the country has a DEPENDENCY ON EXPORTS OF RAW MATERIALS

    Now..... What a pathetic liar and twisted fucker you are... Cordoba exports in grain (Maize and wheat) 1,5 billion U$S but you forget to add the 5 billion in oleaginous (SOYBEAN) produce alone in 2011 for example and then you add up the 2 billion in Automobile industry.

    Apart from that I cant take seriously any of the things you say Verga, you think you can spin the numbers but you are a LIER and a POOR one too!.. LOL
    Did I Say that oil and fossil fuels are agricultural exports (Btw they are not accounted for software, they are accounted for what they are fuels and oil) ?? No

    Did I say Cordoba is the only sustain of the economy?? No

    Did I say the PROVINCE of BsAs is only “Un kiosco al lado del otro”?? Or did I say BsAs (city CONURBANO PLUS CABA) ?? Don’t be dishonest because you know damn well what I referred too.
    Fucking parasites the lot of you, you deserved to be nuked by Conqueror !! Jajaaja

    El campo ends up providing 55% of the dollars the country generates and employees directly and indirectly 35% of the workforce(Etchevehere)

    http://www.infobae.com/2012/09/29/673171-etchevehere-afirmo-que-habra-un-cambio-estilo-la-sociedad-rural

    Now bitch, don’t tell me … The data of SRA is untrustworthy as well…

    Nov 09th, 2013 - 03:42 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    @CabezaDura

    Nope! You are wrong again.

    The “sector Oliaginoso” is composed by to distinct Items according with the official explanation of INDEC & Mecon for that Item in their statistics.

    One is seed and grains oleaginous cultivation (farming or “el campo”) and the other by industrialisation.
    Do you understand the difference?

    Really to be someone who claiming to be from the “El campo” you are pretty ignorant about this.

    Just in case Mr. CabezaDura...

    Milk is not produced by the “gondola” of the supermarket and bread does not comes from a tree.

    CD, Please don’t insist with it because you are making a fool of yourSelf.

    I have been in slaughter houses seeing how the cow is sacrificed by hammers, cash knocker, 22 calibre captive bolt stunner, etc. from I have memory since I was a teen because my father has a company that supplies food exporters companies, supermarkets, agribusiness, etc.

    There is nothing you can tell me about it that I don’t know about the subject.

    “El campo ends up providing 55% of the dollars the country generates and employees directly and indirectly 35% of the workforce(Etchevehere)”

    Nooooooooooooooope a complete lie to lobby in favour of his own interest only an ignorant idiot can believe that.

    So first you have to understand how things really are then you have to understand how each economy unit is placed in the scale.

    For that you have to have real knowledge about real economy that an economist doesn't have and that is the reason why they write that quantity of crap because they don't know.

    So here I will give you a point in your favour Lorenzino doesn't know anything about economy but doesn't matter because economy policy is not endorsed by him. You know he is like a book keeper in your kiosk but Cris does lerned from Nestor

    Still waiting for you wrongly classification over exports and taxes explanations.

    I’m very, very anxious about it.....

    BTW have you noted that we look like a couple of idiots talking about this in English?

    Nov 09th, 2013 - 08:53 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • CabezaDura

    What about ámbito financiero, is that not good enough either ??
    http://www.ambito.com/economia/informes_economicos/archivos/Ranking_expo_x_sectore.pdf

    Hahaha poor verga he thinks he can spin round this but rebranding the components of Argentine exports…. What a pack of rubbish
    So if a butcher house is not an industry export as such it simply cutting up a cow and packing it, it’s part of the Cadena Agroalimentaria which originates in the farms and depends of them. Farmers can alternatively shift from producing beef to grain or milk. And all of the chains are accounted for Manufacturas de Origen Agropecuario (MOA) in contrast to Manufacturas de Origen Industrial (MOI) which are really industrial ones. This Economy’s ABC you even learn in middle school.
    Why a slaughter houses is not an industrial export?? Because they cannot produce beef on their own, you cannot assemble barley, water, wheat, corn, rolls, soybeans and feed and produce meat, milk, eggs, etc by itself in a factory.
    You cannot RE-Brand what things are in the way it fits your argument, because it doesn’t work like that. All this is to make the Kirchnerite economy as a “industrial” one, and it is not and even the government admits it isn’t. The Farming sector is the only competitive sector there is in the country you wouldn’t survive a day without us, because you are NOT EFFICENT, you don’t work as hard as Japanese or Germans, there is no working and entrepreneur culture in Argentine cities and factories that can rival anything in the world. You are responsible (your daddy) of mass distortions in PRICES of the in betweens the consumer and the farmers. ERGO YOU ARE INEFFICENT ON WORLD STAGE, and the government KNOWS IT and doesn’t want to let you go alone for the same reason… YOU WOULDEN'T LAST A DAY OUT THERE WITHOUT our competitive farms and revenues

    Nov 09th, 2013 - 03:46 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    @ CabezaDura same answer like in your other post

    I said “Mataderos” that in English is translated as “slaughterhouses” but “Mataderos” in CABA is not a “slaughterhouse” it is a place called like that because in the past were full of meat factories and slaughterhouses.

    In fact an avenue is called “Lisandro de la Torre” because there was a meat factory called “Lisandro de la Torre” (legislator who opposed to British interest in ARG) which was the fist national meat factory to compete with the British slaughterhouses exporters.

    es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frigor%C3%ADfico_Lisandro_de_la_Torre
    es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mataderos_%28Buenos_Aires%29

    So here is the answer about your doubt if a SlaughterHouse can be an Exporter.
    The Answer is YES because this was doing by Argentina until the ’90 exporting “media res” (half or the animal frozen” so you can export cuts, canned products or just the “media res”.

    You have SHs for internal consumption and for export.

    All these are industrials process and is called “Industria frigorifica”, “Industria carnica”, etc. and has noting to do with farmers or farming.
    UNICA (Union of the meat Industry Argentina),
    www.unica.org.ar/page_3.html see below the page they refer to themselves as Industry not farming sector.
    Cafra (Chamber of the meat factories of Argentina)
    cafra.org.ar/

    See for the part in the web site about objectives for this part “To promote the development of the meat industry Argentina.... and the adoption of more efficient methods of !!!INDUSTRIALISATION!!!

    “Manufacturas de Origen Agropecuario”
    and?
    The origin of the “row material” used in industrial production does not means that is not an industry.
    “Manufacturas” manufactured products are as result of industrialisation not farming.

    So “slaughterhouses” are just the first step of the meat industrial process chain sometimes called C1, C2, etc. (production cycles)

    Nothing to discus about it is just the way its even if you or your favourites economists don’t agree with that.

    Nov 10th, 2013 - 04:41 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • CabezaDura

    And you run out of arguments... ansewerd in theother thread yawn....im off to bed

    Nov 10th, 2013 - 04:43 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • axel arg

    THE ECOMIST'S PRECIPICE.
    There is a big differenc between a a serious report, where anybody has right to criticise any economic measure, if he doesn't agree on it in ideological terms, and a rubbish report like this one, which is full of lies and too partial truths.
    I often see that some people insist on comparing a presidential election, with a legislative one, it's a big mistake, because arg. is not a parliamentary democracy like the u. k., it's actualy a presidential one. Most politic leaders who rule nations with presidential sistems like arg., usually suffer a signifficant reduction in the results of legislative elections, due to people often change their votes in this kind of elections, which is much different from a presidential one, where there is always a very high polarization.
    Anyway, i don't deny that maybe there are some people who voted her in 2011 and who now feel that her administration is not giving enough answers to our problems, but what is also very important, is that after 10 years of rulling the country, c. f. k's party is still the most voted political party of arg., any political analist knows perfectly that this is a privilege that not many political parties around the world can have.
    On the other hand, the so called precipice is just a too pathetic lie, in fact, despite the structural problems of our economy, it's having a good expansion, in fact, according to the figures from CIFRA/CTA, from july to september, it had an expansion of 8,3%, beside, inflation is stable, and rases are growing over inflation level, due to c.f. k's government hasn't implemented any austerity plan like in europe.
    Beside, during c. f. k's licence, were taken very important decisions, like the nationalization of sarmiento railways, and the agreement got by our country with some corporations which litigated against arg. at the ciadi. The economist should take into account these issues too, instead of making such a decadent report.

    Nov 10th, 2013 - 09:35 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    “The Ecoterrorist” is just a bunch of lobbyists that their main job is to lobbing in favour of bank cartels.

    So forget to ask to them anything that cannot fit the bankers agenda.

    Lets say now... to rise interest rates world wide, to deflect prices to buy cheaper key assets, No regulation for banks, no taxing, etc.

    Nov 11th, 2013 - 04:16 am - Link - Report abuse 0

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