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Subsidies in the Argentine economy totaled an estimated 4.9% of GDP in 2013
Economic subsidies for Argentine public and private companies last year totaled an estimated 143 billion pesos, or 4.9% of GDP, the highest level in eight years, according to a joint report by the Professional Council of Economic Sciences (CPCE) and the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (IARAF) released this week, and which was summarized by the Buenos Aires Herald. Read full article
Comments
Disclaimer & comment rules...and being Argentine stats you know you probably have to double them.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 09:34 am - Link - Report abuse 0So they spend more on subsidies than they do on infrastructure.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 12:25 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Robbing their future to prop up their current consumption.
The stupidity is breathtaking.
In the interior we get differentiated bills tan those in BsAs which are subsidized. I don’t know who is going to be the boogie man who sets it right. The whole thing as it is will implode
Feb 11th, 2014 - 12:36 pm - Link - Report abuse 0CabezaDura2
Feb 11th, 2014 - 01:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Infrastructure is the investment by the present for those of the future. Subsidies is the present spending solely for the benefit of the present.
It's a shame that everyone is Argentina is caught up in the government's desperate attempt to stay on power and protect its so called legacy.
The only way to future prosperity is by building up a country's assets and infrastructure. It compounds growth and wealth.
Yes I agree, however the need for investments and infrastructure has being warned for years. All former energy ministers and opposition have predicted this energy crisis for the last decade. No one listened in the government which governs in a day to day fashion. No long term planning whatsoever...
Feb 11th, 2014 - 01:26 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@4
Feb 11th, 2014 - 01:27 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I agree with you. The problem is that the future does not cast any votes. Subsidies, on the other hand, produce yummy paybacks for those that assign them.
Not everybody in Argentina is caught up by the K's govt delusions of grandeur and corrupt practices. In fact, I dare to say half the country fiercely opposes this govt. but the political alternatives are scarce and we still have got almost two long years until the next elections. Tough luck, right?
5. Nary a peep on the supposed agreed upon YPF/Repsol deal.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 01:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Methinks this is not going well for YPF
Repsol: I want U$10B
Arg: We will give you U$5B
Repsol: okay
Arg: that's in 15yr bonds that you can't sell and whenever we dont' want to pay we don't have to for a couple years. Plus you can't sell them in the open market.
Repsol: Oh, we'll take cash please.
LOL….Spain should expropriate Messi and his fortunes as compensation
Feb 11th, 2014 - 01:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0That's 10 bn for Repsol, 12 bn or so for the hedge funds plus and additional 10 bn for the Paris Club ... Yeah, give them Messi
Feb 11th, 2014 - 02:07 pm - Link - Report abuse 09. Its more like 40B-65B for the holdouts if SCOTUS finds in favor of them. Arg would have to pay everyone equally.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 02:20 pm - Link - Report abuse 0That's why they're fighting so hard.
10) How much do you think Patagonia is worth?? How much do you think the Chinese will pay for it ??
Feb 11th, 2014 - 02:36 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Politicians will keep buying votes as long as it's in their best interests.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 02:38 pm - Link - Report abuse 011. You'd be better off selling Mendoza and Patagonia to Chile but my guess is they'd want all the Rgs resettled first.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 02:42 pm - Link - Report abuse 0LOL. Chile couldn't afford it. Only China with its central bank reserves and massive people can resettle it... Tobi says he ain't going nowhere...
Feb 11th, 2014 - 02:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The USA would never let China in South America like that. Plus it's not as rich as people assume. It has massive structural problems that when it goes into civil revolt will quickly become apparent.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 02:53 pm - Link - Report abuse 0USA is not as rich as you assume.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 02:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/
THE BASIC LAW of figuring out wealth is your assets - liabilities. So lets see:
US per capita GDP: 54.000 (that's being generous, it's really around 52.000)
US per capita debt: 54.000
AVERAGE AMERICAN NET WORTH:
$0
:(
And what would the US do?? There must not be an ounce of gold left in Fort Knox. What have you done with the gold reserves the Germans have sent you to safe guard?? It must be all in China by now.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 03:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Actually Yankeeboy , your net worth is now $-1.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 03:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Per capita debt just went up a dollar.
:(
17. haha, actually that's the federal reserve in NYC and has nothing to do with the US Treasury or gold storage in throughout the country.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 03:08 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Toby, GDP is akin to yearly income its not assets. So you're taking all of our 30 yr debt against 1 year of income. That's completely manageable.
So, how much would Argentina be worth according to that calculation?
Feb 11th, 2014 - 03:09 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“Only China with its central bank reserves and massive people can resettle it”
Feb 11th, 2014 - 03:11 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Chinese people aren't massive
@19
Feb 11th, 2014 - 03:15 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Good luck getting any individual, much less a whole country, to work free for a year.
Eventually, you will have to. But by then it will be probably 3-5 years work. Of course, mostl likely is you will default (again).
20. It depends if Rgs come with the land or not :) What was the last big land sale? Alaska? I really have no idea.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 03:17 pm - Link - Report abuse 0That was surely a bargain for the USA!
19 So??? What have you done with the German gold?
Feb 11th, 2014 - 03:23 pm - Link - Report abuse 01500 tones of gold from the Chinese Central bank is a deal for Patagonia, they can send in 4 million people resettled into Patagonia in less than a year… They can set up a navy base on the South Atlantic and proyect power towards their influence in Africa. The others who would be interested in buying it out are the Dutch who will have their own country under water in the next 50 years.
Why are you so interested in the German Gold?
Feb 11th, 2014 - 03:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I'm more interested in what Peron did with the Argentinian gold. Some say it was all spent, others say he took it to Europe when in exile. Wow, last year I even heard that he might have hid some of it out in a mountain somewhere in central Argentina. Wouldn't it be cool if we could get a hold of that?
22. Why would anyone work for free? The USA gov't has taxing authority and we have 30 years to pay the debt!
Feb 11th, 2014 - 03:44 pm - Link - Report abuse 024. I am sure their contract didn't say they had to give them back the exact bars of gold but an equal weight. Its like depositing money in the bank nobody expects the same exact bills and coins back do they?
#16
Feb 11th, 2014 - 03:45 pm - Link - Report abuse 0”THE BASIC LAW of figuring out wealth is your assets - liabilities. So lets see:
US per capita GDP: 54.000 (that's being generous, it's really around 52.000)
US per capita debt: 54.000”
Hey dickhead tobi, you are comparing apples and oranges. GDP is income, the debt is a liability. You do not subtract liabilities from income, you subtract them from assets. Have you tallied all the USA assets is you want to apply that equation. That's like comparing someone's mortgage to their annual salary. You better retake Accounting 101a.
25
Feb 11th, 2014 - 03:55 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Ha!! where ever it is its not in Argentina for sure… that’s all gone, kaput, c’est fini, chau nunca mas.... What we could realistically do is hire Patagonia to a power for 50/100 years or so should we face a dire prospect. Like a rent of a land parcel
Yeah, I never gave those stories much credit but one has to admit that Peronist lore goes a long way.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 04:10 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Realistically, I think the only part of Patagonia we should rent are the KK's properties.
29
Feb 11th, 2014 - 04:39 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Well Argentine State can hire out its own land for a leaseback for certain amount of years…Say a patch of land in the coast, the Chinese will pay good money for a PLA Navy port in the Atlantic. It can buy a good patch of farm land wherever from a private owner and then have the Saudis the Koreans or others, have some contractual obligation of investing in roads, infrastructure, hospitals, etc.
Patagonia is ideal because its got massive chunks of land un inhabited, and nowbody invests in them.
Never though about it that way. Interesting.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 05:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I've also heard a rumor about a new road to Chile being build by the Chinese so they could use the Pacific. If that is true, they could certainly be interested on a port in the Atlantic.
Patagonia is ideal because its got massive chunks of land un inhabited, and nobody invests in them.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 05:05 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Nobody invests for a reason.
There's plenty of vacant land around the world, if it was worth something to someone it would already be gone.
Dude! What is it with you and Argentina?
Feb 11th, 2014 - 05:17 pm - Link - Report abuse 0What I read from you is that anything about this country is worthless. Sure that applies for our leaders and some other stuff as well, but, seriously ...
I could understand if you have been traumatized by some wrecked economic venture down here. I'm traumatized myself that way. Is this your case?
Nope I actually made a lot of $ during the last downturn. I like the country I am merely pointing out that you two are fantasizing about something that will never happen for a variety of reasons.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 05:25 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Even if it was useful to someone do you really think the Ks would allow it to be sold without them buying it first?
And a wet dream of leasing it to the Chinese for a base? The USA would never...let me repeat that slowly...NEVER allow it to happen.
There is nothing the US can do to prevent this from happening...I dont like the idea of the chinese in are borders, but the fact is if we need the money in the future this would be a good option.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 05:33 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You must face reality that China will be wanting to increase its military precense in the world in the next years or so. It has the power but it doesn't have the bases nor the projection of power beyond its borders.
Nothing we could do? Are you kidding?
Feb 11th, 2014 - 05:40 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You live in some fantasy world that has nothing to do with reality.
The USA could and probably would destroy Argentina financially if it let the Chinese have a base.
All we would have to do is stop you from trading in the U$
Good luck trying to buy or sell anything.
Hahaha I really doubt you would go that far. The CIA got involved in Angola aiding UNITA out of fear the USSR set up a naval base in Luanda, you seem terrified at that prospect
Feb 11th, 2014 - 05:45 pm - Link - Report abuse 0And then the Chinese firesale your debt, and bye-bye dollar.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 05:45 pm - Link - Report abuse 0lol, what a delusional moron he thinks the USA can just do whatever like it used to. You were attacked in your capital city and your biggest city 13 years ago, and many countries hold your economic balls.
You are screwed.
So the Chinese would bankrupt themselves and screw their largest buyer?
Feb 11th, 2014 - 05:50 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Let their people starve, go without electricity and have all their factories shut down?
Your stupidity is flabbergasting.
@yankeeboy
Feb 11th, 2014 - 06:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I was talking about a port, not a base. Sure enough the US won't allow the Chinese military to set foot in the South Atlantic. However, economically they are already investing in the region, not to mention Africa as well.
Glad to know you like Arg.
@38
Most of the US public debt is held by the Fed. I don't really think the Fed has any intentions of choking the US into paying immediately. The dollar has a long long life ahead.
Look YB your country is diplomatically anemic, its foreign policy stinks of weakness and retreat everyday you are losing ground. You can’t stop Iran going nuclear; you aid Pakistan to its existence only to prevent them from handling over nukes to the terrorist...While they expand their influence into Afghanistan. You admitted yourself the US was in retreat the other day and that China-EU will take over the Middle East. Do you really think you are going to stop Chinese PLA bases appearing in Patagonia, Africa or elsewhere in the world...
Feb 11th, 2014 - 06:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Man you are stupid and naive!!!
@ 41 CabezaDura2
Feb 11th, 2014 - 06:38 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Israel will stop Iran going nuclear, make no mistake about that. And I wonder where they will get support from? Ha, ha, ha.
Pakistan is a failed state that the world really needs to deal with. Very difficult problem, even worse than TMBOA but sooner or later it WILL be dealt with.
“China-EU will take over the Middle East” I do hope the EU stay out of anything to do with the Islamist heretics but I would love China to have a go at diplomacy there! Camel and water buffalo on the menu after the first clash. Great, bring it on.
As for the ludicrous idea that China will deliberately antagonise the US any time soon it is you that is “stupid and naive!!!”
41. Right now we have a weak Prez my bet is we won't on the next go around in 2016.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 07:08 pm - Link - Report abuse 0We are still the only super power and by far the richest country in the world.
That's not going to change by 2016.
With 300+ yrs of Gas and Oil reserves we don't need the mid east any longer. They can go back to tribal warfare for all I care. I think we washed our hands of it already.
42 ChrisR
Feb 11th, 2014 - 07:15 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“As for the ludicrous idea that China will deliberately antagonize the US any time soon”
Errrrr. I wouldn't be so sure on that score Chris. The flash point to watch ( as ever ) is the South China sea. Japan, South Korea and China are all about to bang heads over a tiny group of islands and who is sitting in the middle of all of them? The US.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-26062033
Read the above link and then call CabezaDura2 stupid and naive... He does have a point and I think that he has seen the danger there. So I don't think that you can call him stupid and naive 'Cos I really don't think that the danger of that happening is going to go away any time soon.
44. The way to fix that is let South Korea and Japan rearm and have nuclear.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 07:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The threat alone will stop that nonsense.
China's internal debt and slowing economy will give it enough problems at home to concentrate on in the very near future.
Israel will only be able to do so IF the Saudis agree to aid them and let them use their air space.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 07:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Do you know what your problem is? It’s not really economical it’s political and cultural... You are not PLAYERS anymore…
The whole argument that you people in the west reply always about China’s expantion consist in what China might be doing wrong in the future… Always
“Ohhh China is going to have a revolution inside its own borders is not as rich as you think it is”
“Ohhh China is going to get it wrong with its influence in Africa, it will be their downturn in the future”
“Ohhh China is doing to diplomacy in the ME is going to be “camels and water buffalo on the menu after the after the first clash” (whatever that means)
The only thing you are good at nowadays is sending your overpaid diplomats around the world to smile, cocktail parties and give out checks of money you need more nowadays hoping that this somehow will buy their greed and alliance.
This is what Trump said about American diplomacy, they are being abused by other countries who are PLAYERS, they send their diplomats against the very best of Chinese, Koreans, Mexicans, Indians, etc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TK_QSrdM02c
And you Brits must be worst because you always answer to the Americas “Certainly Sir, how high??”
I mean I have nothing personal against ElaineB, but is she a real FO diplomat?… Talking lighly about going to shop, living in BA in the posh neighborhoods, going to watch polo matches dating the richest men in Chile and Argentina, expensive flight tickets for touring Latam all paid by tax payers?… Is this the people you will send to deal with the Pakistanis, the Saudis or the Chilean businessman??
And eventually you say “Ohhh China doesn’t deliberately need to confront the US”… The reality is they need the bases to project power
thats how you become a hegemony, you Project power far beyond your borders, you need subs, carriers and BASES for that.
46. I think it is hilarious that small minded people look at the last 5 years and think everything will be the same in the next 5 years when they should be looking at the last 50 years and projecting ahead.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 07:51 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You are probably one of the ones last year that was saying all was well in Argentina and you just got slapped right in the face with reality.
What you think China will do and the world reality are two very differnt things.
Unless there is an alien invasion the USA will be the richest most powerful nation long after you and your grandchildren are dead and rotting.
47
Feb 11th, 2014 - 08:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0No I wasn't you blatant retard, I've being a devault anti K since 2008... You want to talk about tendencies... Its not about the last 5 years (as if Obama was even the beginning of your problems, jeez what a fool) China has being growing since the 1980s, you have being running trade déficits since the 1970s. It can’t possibly last forever. Eventually you have to pay…
Ohhh China has got shale reserves too and its already trying to get a foot hold of your N.Dakota boom, it will invest in it and take the oil but most importantly the technology (because your politicians are stupid enough to give it to them for free as Trump says) to drill and exploit their own wells will come in the future to China itself. Face it they are robbing your tech with hacking and cleaver diplomacy. Your shale boom is a short lived competitive fantasy you have , it counts for nothing
48. Let me tell you what is happening since you clearly are a bit dimwitted. In the next 5 years the USA will be energy independent. In prior years we imported vast amounts of energy. In 5 years we won't.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 08:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0We will start to export it.
USA companies are expanding at home due to our cheap energy.
Our imports will fall accordingly.
China will be an importer of oil and gas for a very very long time. They also can't feed themselves.
Last year they started importing more than the USA.
They will get old before they get rich.
So good luck with your predictions
My track record speaks for itself.
So what yankeeboy??' Your manufacturing companies were taking a beating by the world even in the 80s and 90s when you had far cheaper fuel than nowdays...By countries that also had to import fuel like Japan, Germany, Taiwan etc. Or your industrial north looks like a war zone only sinse Obama came to office in 2009??
Feb 11th, 2014 - 08:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You have a cronic cultural and political problema you are just to arrogant to see it
Except we manufacture 1.8 Trillion a year
Feb 11th, 2014 - 10:50 pm - Link - Report abuse 0so there's that.
You realize that is bigger than India's GDP so no, japan germany etc etc etc don't beat us.
It is just a fallacy lesser countries like to believe.
BTW everyone had cheap fuel the same time we did. That's changed A LOT.
For example you are paying U$14-17 for your natural gas and we pay U$3-5.
Your fantasies need to be updated.
15 yankeeboy
Feb 11th, 2014 - 11:38 pm - Link - Report abuse 0So you think that China is not as rich as people assume.
China holds US$ 3.82 trillion in foreign reserves, it has a current account surplus of US$ 189 billion and growing. On the other hand the US has a US$ 15.4 trillion net gov debt and growing & an almost 500 billion current account deficit and growing. The prospects for the US are dismal compared to China which is projected to continue to dominate world manufacturing and to continue to be the worlds engine for growth. The United States my dear Yankeeboy is on a fast track to become a nation of people hovering on the poverty line, with a small elite of super rich who provide the GDP numbers by speculating on the stock markets using zero interest Fiat money instead of producing real tangible goods and the jobs that go along with that. Sorry to burst your bubble, I recommend you watch re-runs of “The wire” so you can adapt yourself because soon all of the US will resemble Baltimore.
http://youtu.be/lRFu2l4Rh58
Yankeeboy
Feb 11th, 2014 - 11:39 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I've particularly liked this chain of posts exchanged with CD; very interesting. I generally like most of your posts but your predictions of the future for the US vs. that of China was most informative. I have to say that most of your predictions have come true so I will look forward to watching the fortunes of the US economy.
Keep it up.
But you are still importing over 2 trillion, China is still a super plus economy not a deficit one like the Americans.
Feb 11th, 2014 - 11:45 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Your cheap fuel will be wasted once more in 3 cars per household while the Chinese will use their energy to produce in factories while they use public transport and bicycles if you don’t change your way of thinking.
And Ohh.. yes they did beat you the difference is they are mostly medium size countries with much less people but stuffed up and having to import a lot of raw materials. But if you combine a group of them easily they better you.
If you want to go on that sort of comparison you have to compare the EU vs the US… And yes the Europeans are the richest of the planet,
Remember how the European and Japanese cars were beating your fuel eating inefficient cars before Bush had to bail out GM?? I do.
BTW the Chinese do produce the amounts they need to feed themselves. Their agriculture was one of the most efficient ones for millenniums. It produces more food than anybody in the world. That’s how they became a super populated country, the difference is they have incorporated much more protein into their diet
54. Our cheap oil will be used up in cars? Are you fing with me? We have 300+ YEARS WORTH OF RESERVES! talk to me in 301 years and let me know how your prediction is coming out.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 12:53 am - Link - Report abuse 0Er, If you combine THE TOP GDP COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD THEY BEAT US? is that what you are saying? Sheesh retard.
The Chinese import lots and lots of food, being from Argentina you should know that, your whole way of life is dependant on them buying grains.
And why don't you ask the 30,000,000 people that died in China from starvation in the last 50 yrs.
Why don't you update your knowledge base. I am tired of trying to educate you.
So??? The Chinese have 300 year reserves gas and theirs are 25% larger then yours…Its about the production and there is not much to shout about if its spent in the cars and not factories. How much do you think your competitive advantage count for 5 years as much..? The Chinese will already be exploiting their own gas in no time you buffoon
Feb 12th, 2014 - 01:45 am - Link - Report abuse 0http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-shale-gas-reserves-estimated-000000309.html
And by 2020 it is expected their shale oil will have caught up in 40% of production of that of the US
And yes they will keep on using their bicycles, bikes and public transport to go to work because they are stingy as hell… Work hard and save up is their logic, yours is indebt yourself and spend a lot.
Hahahah 30 million !!! Ignorant twat, China was undergoing a cultural revolution 50 years ago… Jeez what a ignorant fock you are sometimes…
HERE..............EDUCATE YOUR SELF IMBECIL
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-shale-gas-reserves-estimated-000000309.html
Look Retard the Soy they import from Argentina, Brazil, Ethiopia, etc contains nitrogen !!! What do aminoacid contain in high content?? What aminoacids form in large chains...P R O T E I N... It is used to feed animals like pigs and chickens in China. They are demanding MORE BEEF. China by mileniums has eaten mostly high content energy grains like rice and wheat to which its diet is based.
You have to study much more China, that’s why you underestimate them so much, you don’t understand what they can do, their mentality, their greed, etc.
You are looking the other way and praying lightning will strike them down
Offf I cant believe im wasting time with such an idiot as yourself
China will be a rich and powerful country. But it won't be a superpower. Nor will it be the richest or most powerful country.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 03:41 am - Link - Report abuse 0China is fighting against a demographic trend that it cannot arrest.
It's demographic profile is already the same as Japan's 20 years ago.
Beijing's TFR is one of the lowest in the world at 0.8.
China's own government population predictions have been too optimistic for more than a decade and they can't revise them down quick enough to match reality.
China has 30 million 'bare branches'-males that will never marry or have children. This is increasing further due to a preference for sons.
China's working age population has already started shrinking (ahead of predictions) and actual population decline has now been estimated as early as 2025.
And China's recent relaxation of its one-child policy will have little affect as it only applied to 30% of the population in the end.
Added to all this is the vested interests. The politicians now have a vested interest in protected the status quo that has made them billions.
As we can see with Japan, the future is not bright when fighting against entrenched interests AND population decline.
To throw a few more irons in the fire:
The Chinese government has never had to deal with a major economic slowdown since it liberalised its economy.
Chinese local government has a massive debt problem, whose extent is not fully known. It is not debt free nor care free.
China's currency reserves are there for a reason. That is to suppress the value of the Yuan and support it's mercantilist and export orientated growth. It cannot draw this down unless it is willing to accept a marked appreciation in its currency. With its labour arbitrage in decline, it cannot afford to price itself out of its markets.
Yeahh…. A tsunami can hit them too, plus lets not forget China runs a serious threat that a meteor hits them too.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 04:03 am - Link - Report abuse 0And of course a obese overweight American called Sha'Nay Nay of the ghetto with no education, no work experience, no job but 2.1% more younger than a Chinese factory worker that peddles in his bike 3 hours a day back and forth to work is a very promising reason to why this will still be an American century and not a Chinese one.
http://www.fanpop.com/clubs/random/articles/22298/title/60-most-ghetto-names
Well CabezaDura2, I see you have reverted to your worst. Surprised you didn't call me a retard.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 04:50 am - Link - Report abuse 0Try replying when you feel more capable of actually contributing on the same level and less on the level of some pathetic troll.
Haha I’ve seen you in the other thread… YB is NOT a little saint, why don’t penalize him for a change?? Don’t worry I don’t expect you to do so
Feb 12th, 2014 - 05:04 am - Link - Report abuse 0No I’m not apologizing… You know why?? Because I think that last paragraph summarizes all.
You are just like YB… Looking the other way and hoping that lightning falls down in China…You have your heads beneath the sands and don’t want to see what is plain obvious. You want to talk about the age of China?? LOL why don’t we talk about the life style of each other, consumption, work ethics, health & obesity rates, the crime rates, drug abuse??
Cabeza
Feb 12th, 2014 - 08:18 am - Link - Report abuse 0“You have to study much more China, that’s why you underestimate them so much, you don’t understand what they can do, their mentality, their greed, etc”
Anglotino
“China will be a rich and powerful country. But it won't be a superpower. Nor will it be the richest or most powerful country. ”
The world will certainly be a very different place, with the emergence of China.
Who is to say whether it will be a better one.
Its easy to criticise the consumerism and deficit spending of the West, but I don't know anyone who would envy the lifestyle of the Chinese people, either.
As Cabeza has said, China is doing well now, agriculturally. With 10% of the world's arable land, it produces roughly 20% of the food supply - largely rice, wheat, and potatoes.
300 million people, 50% of the workforce of China, work to produce food.
Historically, China has endured many a famine. Even today, with modern methods raising production, they are still a net food importer.
“The Great Leap Famine” - the farmers produced lots of food, but much of it didn't get distributed efficiently. Controversially, it is thought too, that Mao exported the food to the Soviet Union, in exchange for consolidating his power and military technology.
Many inefficiencies still remain, that hold them back. 25% of the food grown by farmers in China, rots before it gets to market because of distributor inefficiencies, for a start. As a result, farmers are paid poorly, and are lured to the cities.
China will need to increase their food imports.
Can they call in their debts from their Trade Surplus and live happily ever after?
Can they do that without killing the economies they rely on as consumers?
http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/2012/02/is-chinas-economic-future-a-rosy-one-becker.html
http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/2012/02/is-chinas-economic-future-a-rosy-one-becker.html
http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/2012/02/is-chinas-economic-future-a-rosy-one-becker.html
@46
Feb 12th, 2014 - 10:12 am - Link - Report abuse 0“I mean I have nothing personal against ElaineB, but is she a real FO diplomat?”
I happen to know she is a very insightful individual.
http://www.thecircle.com/uk/reader/elaine-b/profile/?listing_no=2124476
http://www.forbes.com/sites/learnvest/2013/08/06/the-future-of-america-3-predictions-from-an-economic-guru/
Feb 12th, 2014 - 10:55 am - Link - Report abuse 0CD, You really are living in the last decade. Try to update your knowledge base and we can have a serious conversation.
I have nothing against China growing, if it can but I doubt it. Many people smarter than me and you doubt it. They still have massive poverty and huge portions of their rural population has malnutrition. They have done some good in the last 30 yrs but that's not a predictor for the next 30 years. Their population is old, the population is poor, the gov't is corrupt and at some point, probably when the “rich” middle class who've spent 3 generations of wealth buying into a property bubble loses all their savings they will have civil unrest.
It's no longer cheap to use china as a manufacturer, you'll see most of the production come back to the USA.
This is not me saying it but many many many people. it's already happening.
So again, stop thinking you know about much, you are from a 3rd world country on the as* end of no where. I don't blame you for being misinformed. Just update your knowledge base so you don't look like a fool.
@ 44 toooldtodieyoung
Feb 12th, 2014 - 12:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Thanks for the link but the Spratley’s have been a source of potential conflict for years and China is starting to feel left out on the international stage.
If it were their armed divisions that were likely to come into play then that would be a concern, their navy is however another matter entirely.
It will be some years for their “new” Russian hulled carrier to come online, if it ever does. Their submarines are no match for the Americans and that just leaves the air force and missiles, and that as they say, is another thing altogether.
Despite what others say on here the Chinese economy shows all the signs of a very hard crash. I jokingly said they had ChINDEC reporting but it is very similar to the lies set out by Argentina in the belief some idiots will be taken in.
The age problem for their population is a fact as evidenced by the government removing the one child policy and encouraging the retention of female children.
Some western people say what China did over the birth control had unintentional consequences. Quite how killing unauthorised babies as they emerge by injecting them with formaldehyde directly into the crown and encouraging male children to the actual bodily harm of female children could not be seen as a skewed policy as well as being reprehensible is beyond me.
The Han also see themselves as the Middle Kingdom and the rightful rulers of Asia even though they are communists. In their belief even the lowest citizen (a labourer in the poorest village) is “worth” more than any westerner.
That will be their downfall.
Chinese policy is a bit more harsh than Indec, We will have 7.5% growth and if you don't show 7.5% growth you lose your job and never get another.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 12:26 pm - Link - Report abuse 0LO and BEHOLD everyone has 7.5% growth or more
Surprise Surprise
Who cares if the factories are producing stuff but not selling it? Who cares if there are huge warehouses filled with outdated crap nobody wants?They're just unsold assets right? Who cares if they take out massive loans to keep the production up?
Who cares if Politicians take massive loans out at preferential rates and re-loan the money to companies or local gov'ts at massive rates?
Who cares if 3 generations bought condos in ghost cities that are falling apart?
Who cares if the value of the condos they bought are really worth a 1/3 of what they paid. Who cares if they are underwater on their mortgage.
Who cares that they have a Beijing cough. Who cares they can't see the sun rise? Who cares if the drinking water is a little poisoned? Its okay its only a little poisoned.
Who cares if the peasants can't move into the city. Who cares if the in the next decade there will be 5 retired folks for every working one.
It's system is rotten at the core.
It will collapse
It is just a matter of time.
@46 “I mean I have nothing personal against ElaineB, but is she a real FO diplomat?… Talking lighly about going to shop, living in BA in the posh neighborhoods, going to watch polo matches dating the richest men in Chile and Argentina, expensive flight tickets for touring Latam all paid by tax payers?… Is this the people you will send to deal with the Pakistanis, the Saudis or the Chilean businessman?? ”
Feb 12th, 2014 - 01:49 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Seriously?!? Your obsession with me is getting a little weird. Or, as a friend just said, 'creepy'. You don't seem to fantasise about other poster's work. Maybe I should take your fascination as a compliment; you must really value my opinion.
@62 LOL! Not me, sadly. You did make me smile.
@65. In todays news: They are now putting security tags on tins of tuna.
66.Canned Tuna, non-perishable, long lasting, i should have used that in my list of what to stock up on so the Rgs can barter when the economy collapses.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 01:57 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Darn.
63
Feb 12th, 2014 - 02:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0There are various theories and predictions in all fairness it can go anywhere even today. But China has already overtaken the US if it lets the Yuan appreciate itself naturally. I can just google articles and refer to books that counter argue what Forbes say.... BTW Did Forbes predict the US housing market crisis??
“I don't blame you for being misinformed.”
“Just update your knowledge base so you don't look like a fool.”
Yeah right YB….Your economy is very healthy at the moment...Sure. You know to make a football analogy to what I consider. You want to reset the match at half time with a score of 0-0 when in reality you are losing 0-10 but now the Chinese strikers are not reaching your goalie so often… Or TCP has put it you owe to China 3.82 trillion still; they are the engine of the world, still the factory of the world and still expanding.
It’s a bit rich to say a lot of the stuff you claim about China when half the world is still paying the bills of your own bubble previous to 2008.
You think the Chinese old will parasite the system as the US baby boomers would. I really don’t think you can equate their old with yours.
China will still have a massive supply of workers from the rural areas to adjust into the factories which are moving to the interior of China.
66
Stop flattering yourself; it’s not about you I’m trying to prove a point. And frankly I don’t think you are very smart talking that lightly about your expensive tastes and whereabouts.... You have “El Diego” síndrome
CD, Your opinion is worthless. You don't know what you are talking about. You are clearly misinformed.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 02:50 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Good luck to you.
¿?.........and you have run out of arguments.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 03:04 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You just link a vague Forbes article that doesn’t even say what you want it to actually mean and hope this will somehow prove you right and run off can do the trick?. You are dishonest and arrogant to the core YB.
What have you predicted always?? The downfall of Argentina’s economy… Big deal, what an outstanding accuracy!!
What a tool
CD, You have the same problem that Toby and many of the SA posters on this board have.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 03:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You consider yourself smart but you are probably a bit below average (worldwide) intelligence you just have been surrounded by stupid people your whole life so you don't know any better.
Merely the smartest monkey in the zoo.
I am bored with you
I'll never be able to teach you a life's worth of knowledge on this board.
It's too bad you probably don't even realize your dumb.
Do you even realize how much of a petulant, bigoted, ignorant and arrogant self awarding fool you sound like??
Feb 12th, 2014 - 03:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Jeeez what a piece of trash of a human being
@ 66 ElaineB
Feb 12th, 2014 - 03:36 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Oh, oh, you have done it now!
CabezaDura2 thinks “You have “El Diego” sindrome(sic)”.
You must be doing something right, keep going! BTW can I borrow your Ferrari this weekend?
You have to laugh at these self-centred idiots.
Methinks CD is has a few screen names. I seem to remember having THE EXACT same conversations with someone else not too long ago.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 03:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0BCRA is still trying to buy down the peso without much luck. I really wonder how long they think they can keep this up.
74 You are actually right, not THE exact same conversation...but the lines where similar.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 03:53 pm - Link - Report abuse 0http://en.mercopress.com/2013/11/18/argentina-s-annual-economic-activity-grew-4.7-in-september-says-indec
And months go by and you've learned absolutely nothing. I feel sorry for you but not sorry enough to keep teaching you.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 04:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You are doomed to live in squalor and stupidity.
I could care less I'm sure you'll fit right in with your neighbors.
I can't wait until I see Argentina at SCOTUS. They are filing next week. They have wasted U$ 10s of Millions.
Thanks for buying a few 100 US attornies more beach houses and mercedes.
You are just going to get defaulted by Massa, Scioli or who ever comes in... BCRA has only 1000 million in the US or in the rest of the world.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 04:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0As always talk to the hand yankee Bieber
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmuaqabBcpU
The US will be happy to help or condone any Arg gov't that succeeds the Ks
@68 What point are you trying to make? You have cherry picked some comments to concoct a fantasy that you think I am not suitable for. Really, what point are you trying to make?
Feb 12th, 2014 - 05:29 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I don't need to be careful about anything I write here. It is a message board.
@73 Yes, weird isn't it? Just recently I was being accused by another Argentine of being a peasant because I knew slang words. *shrugs*
“you think I am not suitable for”
Feb 12th, 2014 - 06:41 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Are you suited for it then?
I don’t know, that’s why I phrased it in a question mark back if you are really on the service of the FO
What I am 100% certain is that you work for the British government or the media.
Why do you ask me what I’m trying to prove or what my point is, if you further say “You have cherry picked some comments to concoct a fantasy that you think I am not suitable for.”
You know very well that my comments came in a context.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TK_QSrdM02c
In the video of Trump he says at the end from 18:40 onwards exactly why American diplomats are no use against the Chinese negotiators. I think his comments reflect very well the decline in the western/ American diplomacy and ability to enforce its will in the world and the economy. Its seems to scared of the Chinese, the Pakistanis, Saudis, Iranians, N Koreans, Venezuelans, Chinese, Russians, etc and I further believe British diplomats are even worse and weaker for the following reasons.
1) Because you are the lapdogs of the US
2) You our largest per capita spenders on foreign aid in the world. I honestly consider this a sign of weakness and political correctness and total naivety not of charity and good will.
Would you care to actually prove me wrong about this??
@79 You seem to be very certain of a lot of things. Good for you. Tell me what is your profession and where do you work?
Feb 12th, 2014 - 07:07 pm - Link - Report abuse 0What is certain to me is that you have absolutely no understanding of how diplomacy works.
Trump is regarded by most people as a racist twat.
Well if I answered that question I would have to kill you… : )
Feb 12th, 2014 - 07:32 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Its you the one that’s being too outspoken don’t get mad at me. If you have to know I never really suspected nor cared till you said that you were collecting Argentine opinion trends and news for your work… And not so long ago you and the usual bullies of the block were very intrigued as to what Toby does or doesn’t do in his bed….So I guess what goes around comes around.
I don’t care nor know if Trump is racist or not, what I care about is what he is actually saying.
Or you are perhaps you are scared Nigel Farage will be elected and shout to you on the first day “YOU ARE FIRED!!”
You must be the only lunatic actually quoting Trump about current affairs.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 07:37 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You went from kinda rational to utter lunatic pretty fast.
You should break the habit of lumping together everyone not an Argentine. I have absolutely no interest in what TTT does in his bed.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 07:42 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I said I read the newspapers and follow the media in the countries I work as part of my work. Everything else is your interpretation.
And who is to judge what is too outspoken? I have opinions and I express them.
82
Feb 12th, 2014 - 07:54 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The US is no longer an assertive hegemony.
CD, you live in the as* end of nowhere, 13 hours by plane from civilization.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 08:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You have no idea what you are talking about you are out of the loop.
As I said before I feel sorry for you.
Clearly you want to express your opinions but they are not thought out and are based on faulty or outdated information.
I don't know how I can be more clear.
Nobody cares what an Argentinian thinks about anything
nobody
I can be living on Mars. What do you care?? It doesnt matter where I live or what you consider civilization.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 08:17 pm - Link - Report abuse 0All what you should bare in mind You have being proven a lame duck against Pakistan, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria and North Korea.
The only thing you are good at is repeating like over and over something that was evident since 2008...That Arg is heading for disaster. You are just bitter about same mal investment you made here some years ago and you are still bitching around. And you know deep inside you are not going to see it back. You further talk to us as if we did not know the US is rapidly becoming a S#thole and you are worth far less than you used to be.
That being said I have nothing against the US. Not even myself would want to see a red Chinese dominated world, but having a conversation with the likes of you I think you don’t deserve better than they do.
CD, You and your ilk are the only ones that think the USA is in some sort of decline. Your views on China are similar.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 08:29 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I can't keep showing you why you're wrong because its like you are arguing the world is upside down.
If that is what you believe good for you.
My guess is you'll never be able to travel to see either places so why do you care?
Frankly if China wants to invest in that sh*thole country what do I care?Its a dead end.
FYI I invested in Arg when I lived there but pulled everything out in 2006 when I saw inflation getting out of control. I have no financial interest in the country and never will again.
I find the country fascinating. I never thought a population could be so dumb, over and over again like clockwork you elect a bad gov't and you collapse. Every generation getting poorer and dumber than the last. It is frightening but fascinating.
I've learned a lot though.
I can't wait to see how it all rolls out.
Too bad for you though you'll never know what it is like in civilization.
Argentina is a separate topic I know to well
Feb 12th, 2014 - 08:35 pm - Link - Report abuse 0About China rise and US decline I totally rest my case
The world is upside down.
Feb 12th, 2014 - 09:09 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I rest my case.
Ha!!
Feb 12th, 2014 - 09:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0If CFK rings me up and handles me her office and half the Congress in this moment....Alas! I wouldn’t say that the future hegemony would be China, I would say Argentina would be with a ten year mandate of yours truly...
(90) CabezaDura2
Feb 12th, 2014 - 09:32 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You wouldn't last a week, pebete.....
By the way............ You never gave me your moms phone ;-)
What makes you say that?? They don’t call me the hard head for anything...
Feb 12th, 2014 - 09:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0People said at the beginning of the 90s that what Menem and Cavallo wanted to do would never be allowed by the people. In my experience people can change and understand but they will only do so if they are not lied too and it is explained to them properly why things must be done and why it will be for the better in the long term…
@87 ¨I find the country fascinating. I never thought a population could be so dumb, over and over again like clockwork you elect a bad gov't and you collapse. Every generation getting poorer and dumber than the last. It is frightening but fascinating.¨
Feb 13th, 2014 - 12:08 am - Link - Report abuse 0Why is it that you must always utterly mock the inteligence of an entire country?
People like Sha'Nay Nay in the US ghettos are not obliged to vote so they don’t do so... If they were obliged and a politicians gave them $ 200 dollars to vote for them or some subsidies they would be just as bad as in the Conurbano.
Feb 13th, 2014 - 02:57 am - Link - Report abuse 0Making people free to vote or not in Argentina would be a huge and easy step forward.
93. Because there is no other explanation for 3 or 4 generations of Rgs allowing successive bad governments to ruin their lives, their children's lives and their grandchildren's lives.
Feb 13th, 2014 - 12:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0It is a combination or apathy, insanity and or stupidity.
Take your pick
@95 No other explanation? What do you think the people should have done then? The people have fought with each other for decades, all that was achieved was even worse governments and military dictatorships. As far as the people are concerned, there is nothing they can do.
Feb 13th, 2014 - 02:50 pm - Link - Report abuse 096. If that is what you believe you are doomed to more of the same. Your children will be poorer and less educated than you and so on until the citizens are willing to find someone to save the country.
Feb 13th, 2014 - 02:59 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Eventually Argentina is going to be looking up to Paraguay wondering how they are so successful with no where near the resources.
@97 The citizens are looking someone to save the country through democratic elections. But sadly it's only the Peronists who have the power, the talent and the crookedness to rule the country, and if they want to steal, all the people can do is vote the best thief. But we aren't insane enough to want violence, we already have enough trouble in our lives. The Peronist thugs like violence, but only when they aren't getting their paychecks. They are the ones who have balls, but the rest have no balls whatsoever.
Feb 13th, 2014 - 03:50 pm - Link - Report abuse 098. Apathy and Fear
Feb 13th, 2014 - 04:07 pm - Link - Report abuse 0This is why I have told you the best you can hope for is the military to take over and permanently rid you of this disease.
@99 You are insane if you think that the people will ever hope for the military to take over. Two wrongs don't make a right, if the solution is mass politicide then it's not a solution. And the vast mayority of the Western world agrees.
Feb 13th, 2014 - 06:41 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@ 100 MagnusMaster
Feb 13th, 2014 - 07:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I don’t think that the rest of the world even considers Argentina, even in the UK except when TMBOA stirs everything up again.
And, if you ended up like Chile, even if it were Pinochet Mk 2, who would care?
Not me.
I have told you before that all Peronistas are cowards and if a law were dictated that entailed 1,000 self declared Peronistas being shot out of each region’s government then before you could say “kill all the Peronist bastards” there would be NO Peronist bastards.
And you know that I am right on this.
100. Want and need are two different things.
Feb 13th, 2014 - 07:26 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Commenting for this story is now closed.
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