MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
Despite New Year celebration, China's January inflation remained steady at 2.5%
China's inflation rate remained subdued in January, despite rising food prices during the New Year celebrations. Consumer prices held steady at 2.5% from a year earlier, which was slightly higher than many economists expected. Read full article
Comments
Disclaimer & comment rules“Inflation is not going to be an issue in China this year,” said ING economist Tim Condon.”
Feb 15th, 2014 - 03:14 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“ING economist” is an oxymoron, just like military intelligence.
We had a great deal of money with ING and were bloody lucky to get it out before the shit hit the fan.
Couldn’t tell their arses from their elbows as far as I am concerned.
I will be monitoring the inflation numbers coming from ChINDEC against the reality of:
1) the population are malnourished and there is a dire lack of food BUT there are no price rises in food, why?
2) China claims they will overtake the US as the greatest GDP this year; we will see;
3) How many riots occur (that we learn of) once the industrial might turns downward.
Jim Rogers on China's ascension, Wall Street's downfall and Obama's failures
Feb 17th, 2014 - 03:09 am - Link - Report abuse 0http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RrIhdNnBdE
From the Daily Telegraph:
Feb 17th, 2014 - 10:16 am - Link - Report abuse 0http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/10642184/Gold-price-signals-China-credit-bubble-bursting-as-investors-seek-safety.html
“Ash argues that capital flight is happening at a rapid rate in China because of the $1.8 trillion of funds that have flooded into unregulated, non-bank “wealth management products” which offered very high yields, up to 17 times as much as cash deposits. It is feared that many of these funds are now trading at a loss, setting up a crunch moment for China’s economy.
“Bullion traders never knew before what would happen to prices if China hit trouble,” said Ash, “because we’ve never before seen Chinese demand plumbed into the world market so deeply. Its jewellery buyers, together with rising mining costs worldwide, helped finally put a floor under gold in 2013. But while that kind of consumer demand will never drive prices higher, capital flight by wealthier households and Chinese money managers certainly can.”
According to Ash, the first default which could be a sign of China’s credit bubble bursting was reported two weeks ago when a $50m coal-mining bond failed to repay investors on maturity. He says that about $875bn of other such products are due to mature in 2014 and that Beijing has few answers available to tackle the problem.”
HOWEVER:
“Other brokers have said that the rise in gold prices last week above the commodity’s 200-day moving average was mainly because of the fall in the dollar against a basket of other currencies. Commerzbank said that SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold exchange-traded fund, raised its holdings above 800 tonnes of the precious metal for the first time.
According to Gold Money, bulls also returned to the market after Janet Yellen signaled that the US Federal Reserve will continue to prune back its stimulus measures. “Western buyers and vaults are now back in the frame amid the more bullish market sentiment,” said Roland Khounlivong, head of dealing for the broker.”
3
Feb 17th, 2014 - 02:29 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Do you know how many crises, bubbles and recessions the US had at early XX Century as political power, economic activity, knowledge, assets and technology were being transferred to one side of the Atlantic to the other??
China's economy has been contracting for some time now. In fact, “ A hard landing in China would drive commodity prices lower. Michael Haigh, Societe Generale's head of commodities research, believes base metal prices could fall 50 percent while oil could drop to $75 a barrel. Gold might rise before it falls.”
Feb 17th, 2014 - 05:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0That is going to make it very ugly for Argentina with their soy being the new gold and currency bailout.
http://www.ibtimes.com/heres-what-will-happen-should-chinas-economy-have-hard-landing-socgen-1555081
China's banking bubble is about to burst. It's tantamount to the USA's S&L disaster when greedy CPA's allowed overvalued real estate portfolio's to remain unreserved on the books.
http://www.ibtimes.com/heres-what-will-happen-should-chinas-economy-have-hard-landing-socgen-1555081
We'll see what economic savvy China has to swim through this one.
CD....please give u the history lesson?
5
Feb 17th, 2014 - 05:56 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Again I would remit my case to what I said earlier… Im not even denying there seems to be a bubble in China, but I think you are not getting the bigger picture of what is being going on for quite some time… If you look into retrospective how Hapsburg Spain/Austria dominated the XVI Century, Britain dominated the XIX Century and the USA dominated the XX Century the process of transfer of power, capital, economic activity, assets, know how, manufacture from each declining empire to the next rising one…Likewise these same factors have being transferred from the US to China during the last 20 years….
I believe that China lacks complete innovation and creativity in its engineers, that’s why they hack into western companies to steal patents and rob technology that has cost billions of dollars to develop they can rob in a few hours and I’m talking of both civilian US companies but also military hardware producers like Boeing, Lockheed Martin and such as.
And if your leaders and politicians cant tackle this nor hold the Chinese accountable in some way or another you will lose a huge and last advantage you had over the Chinese.
Make no mistakes I don’t want to see a Chinese dominated world, its gov’t is the worst human right abuser in the world but I think reality speaks for itself. And I haven’t even talked nor mentioned Chinese intentions of expanding into Central Asia, South China Sea, Indo China, Indian Ocean and Africa and its ambitious naval construction which is aimed at having a fleet that will tip the balance of the Western Pacific. That is not going to be stopped by a housing bubble.
When you type it and post it like that, I agree in a large part. However, I am not to sure that China has the expertise to crisis manage. Hell, some of the best economic minds on the earth in the free world can't get it right, I really can't see China knowing what to do in quasi-market economy collapse or contraction.
Feb 17th, 2014 - 07:22 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Capital flight combined with manufacturing exodus' will set China back for some time.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/07/china-manufacturing_n_1000305.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/07/china-manufacturing_n_1000305.html
Sure China will ultimately take over the USA as the number 1 economy, that's undeniable based on simple math, but whether they overtake the USA as the number player is seen with great doubt in the near foreseeable future. Predictions of when – or if – China surpasses the U.S. in total economic size of course depends on whatever projected growth rates for the U.S. and China an analyst picks. As Mark Twain said “it is difficult to make predictions, particularly about the future.” So let’s consider some underlying issues that make predictions of future U.S. and Chinese growth rates difficult.
China has going against it?:
declining furtility
Health issues
Natural resources
Lack of food production, it can't feed it's people
Lack of petroleum
History shows economies can't sustain their initial robust rates.
The USA has a few but very important things going for it:
Natural resources
Oil production with shale
a free market economy
greater self sufficiency
Right now I see the USA's major problem is dysfunctional politics and I see that as a rather short term problem overall. The jorunalist Friedman said it aptly that China is getting 90% out of a poor system and the USA is getting 50% out of a good system. Again based on population alone, China should have taken the #1 spot a long time ago.
7
Feb 17th, 2014 - 09:18 pm - Link - Report abuse 0There are a few facts you are missing out, China is the food largest food producer with roughly about 10% of arable land. Chinas agriculture has being so advanced that is the reason they became a super populated state. Basely the diet consists on rice, wheat and potatoes Carbohydrates.
What it imports nowadays is protein from Argentina, Brazil, US, etc in the form of soybean (which has a high % of nitrogen)
So it’s not a country that would actually starve if the rest of the world stopped shipping food to it, it would have severe malnutrition problems perhaps but that is something different.
China has shale reserves that are even 25% bigger than the US ones, but it has water shortages and the deposits are deeper and some are located on populated areas.
Oil production in China is expected to reach 40% of the US by 2020, or that is what they plan to do.
China is much less obese than America and spends far less on healthcare than the US.
This is why I personally believe that the aging population of China wont be too much of a burden on the Chinese economy because;
1)they live less after they retire
2) consume less as they retire
3)visit less the doctor (or are received less by the doctor) than the US babyboomers who are retiring in the US whom btw are going to be supported by a generation of 18% unemployed of young Americans that have not contributed since 2008 when the crisis begun. So I think you have to put this into perspective.
@8 CabezaDura2
Feb 17th, 2014 - 09:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0As I keep saying, no matter how you put it we will see who is correct by the end of the year, and as you know, I am backing the US.
Simple as that.
Im I missing something ?? What is supposed to happen at the end of the year??
Feb 17th, 2014 - 10:29 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Some figures are statistically correct in pockets:
Feb 18th, 2014 - 02:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0712/top-agricultural-producing-countries.aspx
However I think that the shale boom in China will not happen for quite sometime to come. Certainly long after China has been given the USA’s throne in the middle east and leaving China dealing with that mess.
http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0712/top-agricultural-producing-countries.aspx
And while China may have less “obese” people than the USA, the educated and skilled laborers tend the be more health conscious, non-smoking and of the exercise mindset. If you are talking long run for China you need to do the same as well for the USA. Also your retirement stats are comparing a developing nation compared to a developed nation. As China moves more of their millions of people into the newly formed ranks of the middleclass, what do you suppose happens to their expectations in retirement, eating habits etc, etc. All nations go through the middleclass boom phase. Are you proposing that for some reason China evades it?
I see your point, but I reject them.
11
Feb 18th, 2014 - 03:05 pm - Link - Report abuse 0If China can secure a permanent source of water it can pump out its shale gas by 2016…
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-shale-gas-reserves-estimated-000000309.html
It’s the shale oil which is going to be the real problem.
I think it will be a good take if they reach 40% of the US production by 2020. And they have invested and build huge pipelines all over the former Soviet central Asian republics, now they are expected to penetrate into Afghanistan and exploit its riches as the US leaves and the country falls over the influence of Pakistan (Beijing’s most important ally in the region)
They also begun construction of ports and facilities in Myanmar (Burma) which is under their influence, to get all the oil shipments from Africa and the Gulf States that come through the Indian Ocean go straight by Indochina inland and transported into the South China avoiding the Malacca straits, so the shipping lanes are not compromised in Indonesia and in South China Sea that is stilled controlled by the US Pacific fleet
China will still have around 500 MM of people living in rural áreas, I think thats a source of more than enough young labour poor competitive labour.
@ 10 CabezaDura2
Feb 18th, 2014 - 03:30 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You made a STATEMENT that China, if they haven’t already, will overtake the US as the greatest GDP this year.
I disagree and said I would monitor the result at the end of the year; it’s in my database to do so.
So we will see who is correct.
13
Feb 18th, 2014 - 03:40 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Stop lying.
I did NOT say that... I said that people are saying so. And thats news in itself. What I DID SAY If China lets the YUAN appreciate itself perhaps Chinas GDP is already superior to the US.
Would I do believe is that from 2020 onwards it will be a forgone conclusion that China overcomes the US economically. At a certain moment of that time I also expect that China’s navy and military projection breaks the power balance in South East Asia in their favor.
CD....with a population 1 billion more than the USA. One has got to ask themselves this simple question. Based on the shears numbers of people in China, why have they not long ago surpassed the USA as the #12 GDP? The GDP raw and in of itself is one thing, the GDP per capita tells another story.
Feb 18th, 2014 - 05:05 pm - Link - Report abuse 015
Feb 18th, 2014 - 05:17 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Thats a simple answer China was under a communist system till 1978/79 when Deng Xiaoping reformed the economy and permitted capitalism in farming communities and opened its Pacific cities to for foreign investment.
According to the CIA fact book even the Falkland/Malvinas islands has a higher GDP per capita than the US.
CabezaDura2
Feb 18th, 2014 - 06:26 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Accusing me of lying AGAIN you pathetic little argie.
This will be the last time I reply to you except for the result of China’s failure at the end of the year.
17
Feb 18th, 2014 - 07:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You are a Little scared of me or is it me imagination?? You are not very perky when Anglotino & YB are behind your back-
Of course you are LYING… Im going to explain my position once, another time I will reiterate my point… and if you continue to claim what I did NOT say then you are LYING. Because I copy-pasted a piece of that article makes me back that statement ??
http://en.mercopress.com/2014/02/13/china-trade-surplus-jumps-in-january-with-imports-increasing-by-10#comment308331
I just have to save this conversation link of the 13 of February…. So then
1)While China might be the second or first economy by the end of this year I cannot possibly be certain about and I’m skeptical that it happens.
2)I’m certain that the China Suarez will continue to look good though she is a empty bimbo.
3)What I’m certain about is that by the end of this year you will still be the same old idiot and a LIAR.
CD, essentially they still are to a large degree. I can respect the points you made because you did in fact make some valid ones. But I do not see them being the worlds savior for some time to come. In post#6, paragraph 2 is the primary reason I see them as being the second fiddle for some time to come.
Feb 18th, 2014 - 07:50 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Poppy…The main point here is not who is the biggest economy. It will be China at one stage inevitably I say it will be so after 2020, that doesn’t necessarily mean who will be a hegemony is China. The most important point is that you already are at a cold war with China who is a capitalist Superpower.
Feb 18th, 2014 - 08:30 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I and if you have to know I get most of my information and follow my opinion from AMERICAN top brass strategist like Robert Kaplan or a former Counter-terrorism advisor to the Pentagon like Richard Clarke.
This was in April 2012 (Before the Snowden Scandal, Clarke already admits the following)
“The U.S. government is involved in espionage against other governments,” he says flatly. “There’s a big difference, however, between the kind of cyberespionage the United States government does and China. The U.S. government doesn’t hack its way into Airbus and give Airbus the secrets to Boeing [many believe that Chinese hackers gave Boeing secrets to Airbus]. We don’t hack our way into a Chinese computer company like Huawei and provide the secrets of Huawei technology to their American competitor Cisco. [He believes Microsoft, too, was a victim of a Chinese cyber con game.] We don’t do that.”
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/richard-clarke-on-who-was-behind-the-stuxnet-attack-160630516/#ixzz2te2Unso6
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/richard-clarke-on-who-was-behind-the-stuxnet-attack-160630516/#ixzz2te2Unso6
If you don’t have time nor interest to read is book, He goes further into cyber warfare in a lecture for The Economist…
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/richard-clarke-on-who-was-behind-the-stuxnet-attack-160630516/#ixzz2te2Unso6
I’m also subscribed to Stratford magazine, and Kaplan explains so well how the Chinese are building up their navy and why the South East Asia & South China Sea & Indian Ocean are key for hegemony. Why the next century will be decided there
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/richard-clarke-on-who-was-behind-the-stuxnet-attack-160630516/#ixzz2te2Unso6
You already are at war with China, whether you like it or not.
Sure ok....whatever. You were doing well there for a while.
Feb 19th, 2014 - 09:43 am - Link - Report abuse 022
Feb 19th, 2014 - 05:32 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You are thick too
I did answer to my own consideration in second paragraph comment 6…. Its that you don’t understand that nowadays, billions of dollars of research, investigation and development, years to get a formula right can be stolen in a microsecond…..Welcome to the cyber warfare and corporate cyber wars age.
And I repeat this doesn’t come from a loony leftist source like the ones of Stevie or Dany Gerber or a conspiracy theory nutter, it comes from one of the most top brass advisors to the Pentagon, the same guy that alerted of the possible Al Qaeda threat right before 9/11. Condolezza Rice ignored him.
There you go again, resorting to insults because I fell to agree with you. Trust me, I know more of Mr. Clark than you can ever read. Stick to Argentina.
Feb 19th, 2014 - 07:56 pm - Link - Report abuse 023
Feb 19th, 2014 - 08:06 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I’m insulting you because you fail to understand the entire point of why the last advantage the US holds is very bleak because of a factual reason and you disregard my entire argument on the basis of your opinion.
I don’t know what relation you have with Mr. Clark but you are denying what he actually says?? Are you denying that American corporations both military and civilian are being hacked into by the PLA??
I will talk of whatever topic I will feel like.
I acknowledged your argument several times, stated you made valid points but disagree with the stated point that China is going to be the new king with a court. Your original point was not whether we, the USA is at a cold war with China. Because I disagree with your original does not mean I disagree with your second point. I choose not to address for whatever reason they are mine. And did you notice that I disagreed with your original point all the while accepting your basis without insulting you?
Feb 19th, 2014 - 09:08 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You are a classic reason why Argentine's are not respected. You reap what you sow.
25
Feb 19th, 2014 - 09:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You are just victimizing yourself in order to avoid an argument. Very womanese of you…
I guess you have not EVER insulted anybody in MercoPress. You have jumped on Toby’s neck for far less things.
The fact that I have moved from the economical side to the cold war side of China vs US comes from you citing my own 2°paragraph in comment #6
If you want to keep it on the economical aspect….fine Cyber espionage is still a defining key in this way too. For there is no point in investing billions in research investigation and development of technologies, formulas, machines, etc if it can be robbed in a microsecond.
I will apologize if I feel I have being harsh or unreasonably rude. I don’t consider I have being so.
Has Clarke lied or not?? Are the Chinese attacks on US corporations both civilian and military, a fallacy or not???
There you go again. Forget it CD.....I insult those that lack respect and have indirectly was seeking it. I accorded you nothing but respect because you started off in the manner......but diverted. Even your opening line....btw it's feminine, not womanese. ANd I do not feel victimized, only slighted for yielding an Argentino respect. You latin males are all the same.....not much of warriors though, unless you count verbal warriors.
Feb 19th, 2014 - 10:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Yes we were having a good discussion. It is interesting that the idea of a cold war with China touched a nerve…. I’m reminded of this scene.
Feb 19th, 2014 - 10:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vK0_Ob9qCI0
First......I do not do utube or wikipedia, so save your calories for a respectable reference. Secondly, the concept of a cold war with China is meaningless to me. I lived through and fought the original.
Feb 20th, 2014 - 01:29 am - Link - Report abuse 0You want to know what I think of Mr. Clark? He is a very smart man who professes a fraction of what he knows and what really scares him. Despite his gloom and doom prognostications, he quite a humorous man and sees a winner in the end. China has been hacking the for as long as the USA has been hacking China. Everyone hacks everyone.......at least the countries that can do. The incompetent ones don't because they can't. Instead they hack they citizens out of fear of opposition and coupes.....the South American mantra.
Your an Argentine......side and stick with China, afterall you unofficially sided with Mussolini and Hitler.......why change? It is your prerogative and free will to think and believe what you will. I disagree and furthermore fill confident enough in my believes that I do not feel compelled to change others opinions such as yours. Visit my country, I often do yours.
I've said many times I always enjoyed my visits to Argentina. What I loath is your government and what it did to the people, the country and how they profiteered from the carnage they created.
29
Feb 20th, 2014 - 02:13 am - Link - Report abuse 0Poppy you are talking about stuff you don’t know about…. Being a tourist doesn’t mean to say you actually know about it
Argentina was officially neutral during the war and various gov’t existed during the war period. There ware faction pro axis and pro allied factions in Argentina. My grandparents were anti Axis.
Ohh I know the US can hack back at China, but the point is they have nothing to lose as its they who are robbing your OWN technology. It’s not the other way round…
Ironic that you say that
How well do you really know him ??
“Are we as a nation living in denial about the danger we’re in?” I asked Clarke as we sat across a conference table in his office suite
Clark: “I think we’re living in the world of non-response. Where you know that there’s a problem, but you don’t do anything about it. If that’s denial, then that’s denial.”
Anyway I stated already that I dont want to see a Red Chinese dominated world. If you think im pro Chinese I couldn't care less. The reality however is that they seem to be winning. You have never faced a capitalist superpower on the rise. This is not the USSR
You are correct than.....I do not known what I am talking about. As a tourists how can I? However.......I do trust my family that has been there since before Peron.
Feb 20th, 2014 - 10:15 am - Link - Report abuse 0Seem.......the definition is?
31) Yep that’s the difference. When I comment about matters related to the US I present facts, real numbers, historic events, opinions on the most important decision and policy makers, I'm not like “my friend Davy in Alabama says this or that” I don’t know who your wife is or what relationship you have with Clark, I only discuss what can be discussed and proven...
Feb 20th, 2014 - 02:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You are not even capable of presenting and sustaining a case that Argentina was unofficially allied with the Axis in WWII presenting evidence about this.
So I rest my case
Good....so go back in your hole.......your get a hardon for argument and I don't. You are looking for a discussion and I am not that is the major difference. You want a discussion? Meet me face to face, talk to me on skype, give me your email address. I started coming here only to read about what is happening in RGland until I realized that trolls roam here pontificating the goods things that the kirchner's have done and we all know that is BS.
Feb 20th, 2014 - 03:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0As for Argentina's official; position in WWII, that is right along with the USA's official position on the Falklands. If Argentina went to war again with the UK, see where the USA would stand on the matter.
Argentina joined the Allies in February of 1945 ONLY after they saw how had all but won the war. Good lord rg, Argentina started issuing passage to Nazis even before the war ended.
Enjoy mendoza while you can.
33) Peron came too power in 1946 and he gave the nazis fugitives cover when the war had already finished...
Feb 20th, 2014 - 03:33 pm - Link - Report abuse 0SO the WWII began in September 1939 to Mid 1945... Lets see how many gov't occupied the argentine state during this period.
Gov't Roberto M. Ortiz (1938-1940)
Gov't Ramón Castillo (1940-1943)
Revolution/ Coup d' Etat June (1943-1956)
I dont give my mail address or other forms of contact in internet.
Commenting for this story is now closed.
If you have a Facebook account, become a fan and comment on our Facebook Page!