MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Massa, Scioli and Macri emerge as Argentine presidential hopefuls with most support

Governor Scioli,mayor Macri and dissident lawmaker Sergio Massa make your pick

Argentine former cabinet chief and now dissident lawmaker Sergio Massa, the governor of Buenos Aires province Daniel Scioli and Mauricio Macri, mayor of Buenos Aires City outstand as the strongest presidential hopefuls for next year's primaries (August) ahead of elections to succeed Cristina Fernandez in October 2015.

 According to the reliable pollster Poliarquía Consultores with results published by La Nación, Renewal Front's Massa figures with 25% vote intention; Scioli, 21% and Macri, 16%. To the centre left former Santa Fe governor Hermes Binner, and ex vice-president Julio Cobos share 9% and 8% and closing in lawmaker Elisa Carrió with 6%. The extreme left with the Workers Party has a 4% vote intention.

The public opinion poll was based on the hypothesis that the primary elections were to be held this week.

“The first thing that the poll shows is a highly fragmented scenario, and the proximity of the candidates support also indicates that Argentina for the first time might have to face a run-off based on these results, because none of the candidates has the sufficient strength to reach the Casa Rosada by himself” points out Fabian Perechodnik, Poliarquía main analyzer.

“Massa, Scioli and Macri seem to base their success on the strength of their personalities. They are already running, while the centre left conglomerate, Radicalism, Socialism and Unen has a few figures but leadership will be defined at the primaries. That is why it's too early to assess the electoral weight of this space and most probably it will be highly competitive”, added Eduardo Fidanza, head of Poliarquía.

The poll allegedly also helps to understand whether there is a prevalence of 'continuity or change'. To that respect 46% said they would vote a candidate that “changes a few things and continues with others”; 33% said they would support someone who “changes most things” and 15% prefers to have 'the majority to continue'.

In other words a majority of the Argentine electorate does not want absolute changes relative to the Kirchnerism legacy. “There's continuity referred to salaries, jobs and consumption, but expectation changes are based in improving security and combating inflation. This I believe is the crux of the matter: who better understands and interprets this will have the best chances”, underlines Fidanza.

Regarding primaries in Cristina Fernandez' Victory Front, governor Scioli is best positioned with 48% support, followed by a distant 16% for Transport minister Florencio Randazzo, 16%%, Senator Anibal Fernandez, 10% and cabinet chief Jorge Capitanich, 9%. Sergio Urribarri, Entre Rios province governor and sponsored by Cristina Fernandez, manages 6%.

In the event of two hopefuls inside the Victory Front, Scioli would harvest 67% of the vote and Randazzo, 26%.

“Clearly Scioli is now the incumbent candidate whether Kirchnerism likes it or not. If primaries were held today the governor has virtually no competitor”, said Fidanza.

In the centre left option, Binner would head the primaries with 26%, followed by Cobos with 21%; Carrió 12%; Ricardo Alfonsin, 7% and Senator Pino Solanas, 5%. But in a scenario with only two candidates, Cobos would be the winner with 47% of support, ahead of Binner's 42%.

“The parity between Binner and Cobos as well as Carrió's strong competitiveness, is most interesting since if they reach an understanding with conservative Macri in Buenos Aires City, it would mean a completely different ball game”, added Perechodnik.

The poll included 1.000 phone interviews, in 40 urban centers with over 10.000 people and over 18-years. The statistical error is estimated in plus/minus 3.2%, with a confidence level of 95%.