MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Brazil downplays, mathematically, the threat of dengue for Cup tourists

According to the calculi at the most 33 out of 600.000 visitors could catch dengue

A study by Brazilian experts calculates that, in the worst case scenario, just 100 of the 600,000 foreign tourists who will visit Brazil during the World Cup soccer tourney scheduled to begin in June, or less than 0.02% of the total visitors, will contract dengue during their stay in the country.

 The report was prepared in response to generic warnings and “exaggerated” claims about the threat of dengue that some consulates of countries that expect to send a huge flood of tourists to Brazil had been giving, according to an article released on Sunday by the state-run Foundation for Support of Research in Sao Paulo State, or Fapesp.

The study, carried out using a mathematical model, took into account the current figures on dengue in Brazil, historical statistics, the possible side trips that foreign visitors will make during the World Cup and the low incidence of the disease during the period of the competition between June 12 and July 13, Fapesp said.

The peak in dengue cases in Brazil, according to experts, generally comes between the 15th and 20th week of the year, and the World Cup will not begin until the 24th week of 2014.

In the best case, according to the mathematical model, just 3 foreign tourists will come down with the disease during their stay in Brazil and under normal conditions the number would probably be a maximum of 33.

The calculation was made by a group coordinated by researcher Eduardo Massad, an expert in mathematical models used to evaluate the spread of disease, and created by experts at institutions such as the University of Sao Paulo, the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, the Health Ministry and the Lee Kong Chian Medical School in Singapore.