MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
Brazil's economy grows 0.2% in the first quarter and 1.9% in twelve months
Brazil's economy grew 0.2% in the first quarter compared to the final three months of 2013, a pace slower than economists had forecast, the government said Friday. Meanwhile GDP rose 1.9% relative to the first quarter of 2013, according to figures released by the state-run Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, or IBGE. Read full article
Comments
Disclaimer & comment rulesSuch low growth rates are not enough to reduce poverty levels and raise general living standards.
May 31st, 2014 - 08:17 am - Link - Report abuse 0The story of the BRICS isn't going so well at the moment. The unceasing lineal growth that was predicted until recently and that would have the BRICS dominating the world economy has come to a great screaming halt.
The UK has overtaken Brazil in economic size and Italy has a possibility of overtaking Russia now that Russia's economy has tanked. Colombia has overtaken South Africa's economy, which is funny when you think that it is Argentina that has been invited to the BRICS shindig.
The BRICS economies (less so in China's case) got complacent and thought they didn't need to do anything once they hit high growth rates. They believed the hype that their economies were of a new variety and they didn't suffer the problems that many developed countries had with ageing populations and debt.
And they were wrong.
Brazil, China and Russia's TFRs are already below replacement and lower than some developed countries. Their demographic dividend is already working its way through the system so very soon their dependency ratios will start to suffer and that doesn't bode well for attaining developed country living standards. South Africa and India's are dropping faster than many predicted.
Brazil has missed many opportunities to reform its economy and doesn't seem to be keen to grasp the moment now. Its economy has so many constraints that as soon as growth takes off, inflation takes off quicker and eventually causes the economy to slow down as it is tackled. A country growing only 1.9% per year shouldn't have 11% inflation. The UK is growing 3.1% and only suffering 0.5% inflation. Its economy doesn't suffer restrictions and when they do, there is more a culture of reform to tackle those.
High interest rates to combat inflation causes the credit becomes expensive for the consumer.
May 31st, 2014 - 03:16 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The consumption of the people was stable but the rest of the economy grew stronger and healthier.
Melhoramos nossa produtividade o que redundará em inflação mais baixa e economia mais competitiva.
We are preparing for another decade of sustained growth with social justice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPKTTpuJ6lA
There's a lot of $ in there from the building for the WC and Olympics. Building they can't afford.
May 31st, 2014 - 03:41 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Without that they'd be in recession.
The government had a surplus of 17 billion dollars in April. So we have money to build more things. The World Cup will end, the Olympics will finish and we will continue to build more infrastructure. Our government has one of the largest budgets in the world and money to do what you want.
May 31st, 2014 - 03:51 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@ 1 Anglotino
May 31st, 2014 - 04:55 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Excellent analysis.
@ 4 brasso
Did you ever work as the spokesman for Saddam Hussein, President of Iraq, using the nickname “Comical Ali”?
Your posts are as ludicrous as his claims.
The biggest problem with Brazil is geographical. It has a massive mountain chain blocking its cities from the central parts of the country.
May 31st, 2014 - 07:34 pm - Link - Report abuse 0https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvpJWo0k6Fc
Brazil in a way is doomed by its size, landscape and weather
Brasileiro
May 31st, 2014 - 11:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0All you did was agree with me.
“High interest rates to combat inflation causes the credit becomes expensive for the consumer.
The consumption of the people was stable but the rest of the economy grew stronger and healthier.”
I know how an economy works and you just described the CONSTRAINTS I spoke of. Why does inflation take off? Because of bottlenecks and constraints within the economy.
Perhaps Dilma should spend a little less time pontificating on what the US has done wrong, less time running around on worthless regional and multilateral institutions that give few tangible benefits and more time on reforming the economy.
“We are preparing for another decade of sustained growth with social justice.”
No you aren't. What a bald face lie. Where's the preparation? Brazil is stil basking in the reflected glow of attaining high growth rates for an extremely short time.
All you did was use up capacity. You need to continue to create capacity for growth to continue. What is the government doing to create capacity?
My country had a decade of sustained growth with social justice. And it hasn't stopped. The new government is already laying the groundwork for further growth.
CabezaDura2
Brazil is no more doomed by its size, landscape and weather than Australia is.
Australia is (after Antarctica) the driest continent on earth. And with that we have some of the oldest and hence least fertile soils.
Australia is not much smaller than Brazil. The difference is equal to Mato Grasso or 3x Buenos Aires province. Andyet with only 23 million we manage to overcome the sheer emptiness and cost of connecting and knitting our country together. It took me 4 days to drive across Oz from Melbourne to Perth and the population between those two cities totals less than 2 million. Spread over 3,500 kms.
The characteristics you list are blessings not curses. The curse is their government.
7
Jun 01st, 2014 - 02:25 am - Link - Report abuse 0I will rather endorse again the Peter Zeihan lecture.
OZ is only 23 million when Brazil is 200 million; that is a complete game changer you also have a template weather and not tropical like Brazil. In template weathers you can do C3 crops. Brazil needs to import wheat from Argentina and Uruguay. Besides the Oz you can have your production moved in shipping lanes without using and investing too much in the desert. Brazil’s heartland is landlocked.
Out of cotton, soy and corn, Brazil is forced into tropical and labor intensive plantations. It’s a slave economy
Oz geographical challenge
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quNdaS895gE
Brazil geographical challenge
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quNdaS895gE
@ Anglotino
Jun 01st, 2014 - 11:43 am - Link - Report abuse 0The universalization of education and infrastructure that is being built will ensure a productivity gain that will support our future development.
Most of the expense that you assign to the government has been taken by the private sector through public concessions offered in the various auctions.
Inflation is under control, but at a high level (6.2% pa). Public debt is the lowest among the 10 largest economies in the world. In my opinion a country that is still developing may have very low inflation.
Coherent Brasileiro
Jun 02nd, 2014 - 10:34 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Time to do some research that doesn't include inane youtube clips.
Brazil is stuck in neutral and you'll have all of 2014 and probably 2015 to mull that over.
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