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Roubini warns about negative consequences from the Argentine case

Thursday, July 3rd 2014 - 06:26 UTC
Full article 68 comments

The economist famous for predicting the 2008 financial crisis has analyzed Argentina’s current dispute against vulture funds warning “holdouts must not be permitted to block orderly restructurings that benefit debtors and creditors.” Read full article

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  • ChrisR

    He is missing the point as all economists tend to do and it is simply this: don't borrow more than you can pay back!

    Any member of the public who borrows more riskd severe financial hardship and so should 'sovereign' nations especially those know to have thieves in the government.

    He should also consider the mutual clauses that have been in place for several years now. It seems to me he is out of touch with reality but as an ex-advisor the Peanut Brain Clinton is anyone surprised?

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 10:39 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • GeoffWard2

    “Second, if the holdouts are paid in full, the majority of creditors who accepted a haircut can request to be paid in full, too. If that happens, the country’s debt burden will surge again, become unsustainable, and force the government – in this case Argentina, which is servicing most of its debt – to default again on all creditors.”

    This is the opinion of an economist, not a lawyer.
    If creditors accept a %reduced payback, why should THIS be subject to re-negotiation if the 'holdouts' holdout for - and get - a larger/full payback?

    Very little of these matters makes much sense to me.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 10:40 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Idlehands

    The problem is that Argentina is a special case. It is a scofflaw and never acts in good faith.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 10:44 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Yuleno

    It's quite simple .Keep in mind that the difficulty being highlighted is the future.
    If the consequence of greedy people,who consider making money .in itself. is the purpose trade, determine the agenda then there will be no solution to bankruptcy.
    Now,let's think about a future event will be handled.Perhaps vulture funds might take ownership of part of a bankrupt nation?(tongue in .......)

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 12:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • bushpilot

    What about the greed of thieving politiciians. Isn't that really the root cause of the problems here?

    You see, leftist, government greed can be ignored. Only private sector greed is to be condemned.

    I wonder if Mr. Roubini has any opinions on the negative consequences of being deadbeats.

    But, we can't prevent people from being dead beats! That just isn't right!!

    You see, people with money deserve to have their money taken from them.

    If anybody tries to prevent deadbeats from taking other people's money, well that is just plain immoral.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 01:24 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • owl61

    Roubini overlooks the effect of a collective action clause which is now standard bond language. The Argentine case will not likely occur again since 92% would bind the 8% who hold out.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 01:30 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Conqueror

    Consider, Roubini makes his money out of “economics”. Meaning economic systems as they are. In fact he has a company for that purpose. And he predicted the 2008 financial crisis? A stopped clock gets the time right twice a day. And his qualifications in justice are where?

    @4. The future is quite capable of taking care of itself. Where would it be possible to find a bond-issuer as corrupt, criminal and crooked as argieland. There is no doubt in my mind that argieland was perpetrating an intentional fraud. The bonds involved were deliberately targeted at small investors without the means to make a legal challenge. It is notable that argieland deliberately issued the bonds under NY law to make them more attractive. Nobody but an idiot would buy bonds issued under argie law. Also that argieland gave up sovereign immunity. But now it wants to insist on sovereign immunity? If you're a liar and cheat, you deserve whatever you get! If the relevant jurisdiction permitted, I'd be recommending indicting argieland for fraud.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 01:32 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Z-ville

    This guy is conveniently ignoring the fact that it is Argentina's exceptionally irresponsible behavior on the financial markets that led to this situation. Argentina is a uniquely bad borrower, and if other countries adopted the same tactics it will destabilize the global bond markets and make it nearly impossible for any distressed country to get financing.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 02:44 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The_TroLLing_Stone

    Funny how all the top economic minds agree with ME.

    Just a coincidence I guess.

    The 4th is coming to Argentina, the blood will be in your hands that post in this forum.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 04:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    Economists and weathermen do the same thing......guess what the future holds.

    These RG idiots need to stop referring to this as restructuring. Restructuring is taking 100b in loans @ 8% for 10 years and changing it to 100b @4% for 20 years.......that is restructuring. Taking 100b @8% for 30 years and making it 27b @ 8% for 30 years is robbery the deadbeat way.

    It is time for Roubini to crawl back under his rock for he has had his 15 minutes of fame long ago. Adam Smith he is not.

    Titti boi tobi #9 spit your dad out of your mouth and walk down to Casa Rosada.......doesn't it look like a junk yard....a pile of heaping shit lately? When I went by it two weeks ago I was astounded. ....but then.....befitting for the pig who works there........oops......I forgot....your are too young to be allowed to leave Miserable Mendoza.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 04:46 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • golfcronie

    @9
    Your talking Bollocks again. Time for your medication

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 04:48 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The_TroLLing_Stone

    Argentines of my generation will never forget these days.

    You foreigners have been warned. Stay far far away from us. We will not respect your integrity if you set foot in our land.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 04:53 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    titti boi.........when will you RG's ever learn that we are all responsible and accountable for our own actions. You have to get over the natural inclination of almost all Argentine's to blame everyone else for your own failures.

    The RG national motto is........“it's your fault”

    The national creed......“I shall take all credit for the good and position and shift the bad to others, pass me an empanada”

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 04:54 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The_TroLLing_Stone

    Comment removed by the editor.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 04:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • HansNiesund

    Interesting hat nobody seems to be trying to defend Argentina, the “support” it is claiming largely concerns the supposed systemic impact of the judgement. The point Roubini seems to be missing in this respect is that this judgement is a consequence of he bond contract between Argentina and its bond holders. The systemic impact is therefore limited to any other defaulting country with recalcitrant holdouts under he same contract. Who is that, exactly?

    And as owl61 points out at @6, who is that going to be in the future?

    Toby, try and get laid before you have your aneurysm. You don't know what you're missing.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 05:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • bushpilot

    @9 T

    “The 4th is coming to Argentina, the blood will be in your hands that post in this forum.”

    I think rather it will be the Chinese that are coming to Argentina. They will buy your country for peanuts and profit immensely.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 05:27 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The_TroLLing_Stone

    Comment removed by the editor.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 05:42 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • bushpilot

    Why do my children deserve to die because yours is a country of thieves?

    Stop trying to take other people's land, and stop trying to take other people's money.

    Don't get pissed off at other people because they don't like thieves.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 06:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    RG's never played by the rules....ever.

    Tobi can't get laid he is a self proclaimed hater of female anatomy. However tobi......he does self gratify himself to his mommy showering.

    tobi when I was in Argentina I gave you every chance to teach me a lesson but you seldom posted and did not respond to my offers to meet YOU in Mendoza...........you pussy. I bet you drool like one as well.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 06:39 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • reality check

    Tit the jihadist!

    Lmfao.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 06:41 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    One painfully obvious fact is that the sovereign bond market is still thriving after the judgement . if it was going to react it all ready would have.
    The only countries getting crushed are the deadbeats.
    And nobody cares about them
    BCRA is again flooding the system with pesos.
    Watch out below

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 07:39 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Yuleno

    You post predictable rubbish yankeeboy.Obviously the bond market will remain the way it is.The judgement favors it.The point Roubini is addressing isn't the bond market and the bond market represents the bond market.So what would you expect.And your narrow view on things follows the same line of thought but you are not a millionaire.
    No need to hope for any enlightment from you.The usual posturing.I don't think you have work let alone bonds!!!

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 09:17 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The_TroLLing_Stone

    @18

    You will pay for Iraq.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 10:29 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    22. Did i ruffle your feathers you ol' commie?
    My post are predictable because I know what Im talking about.
    I've seen how this rolls out, go back through my posts. Does it make you mad I've been right more times than wrong?
    Look to Caracas if you want to see Buenos Aires future if the continue down this nutty path.
    Blackouts and bread riots.
    :)

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 10:33 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The_TroLLing_Stone

    @23

    As supposed to what “other” path?

    You don't have one to offer.

    Off you go now.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 10:37 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    I offered many solution over the years.
    But yeah you're right all that's left now is default devalue hyperflation and misery for a generation.
    I hope you didnt sell your sugar yet.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 10:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • bushpilot

    Whatever happened to that “Narine” gal from France?

    She just popped up suddenly, defended Argentine thievery for a few posts, and was never heard of again.

    Shame really. I'll bet she was hot.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 10:54 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The_TroLLing_Stone

    @26

    As always, never providing the alternative.

    Busted.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 11:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Conqueror

    @9. You've managed to get something right!!! It IS the 4th. Of July! Good for you.

    “The 4th is coming to Argentina, the blood will be in your hands that post in this forum.” Hurrah! Let's see it flowing down the streets. Did you know that you can drink it? What's on YOUR menu? Leg of child and a nice glass of blood? Perhaps with some soy on the side? Got you figured, you see. All “self” and threats. Quit trying for sympathy. There is none. You dug your grave. Now get in and lie down!
    @12. Don't be stupid. We'll crucify you. Literally.
    @23. Don't be a silly child. You lot couldn't make “the world” pay for a fart.
    @25. Death. Way back, Romans, e.g. latinos, used to fall on their swords. Some used to beg for honourable deaths and would get their throats cut. There's a couple of “paths” for you. Have you got an acquaintance who can let us know what you did? That can be the one that, if you can't bear to skewer yourself, will cut your throat for you. Spend a couple of days with laxatives and enemas. It can be quite smelly when you empty your bladder and bowels.

    Jul 03rd, 2014 - 11:27 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    You've been following me around like a puppy for a long long time.
    For awhile you didn't believe me but now you do.
    Did you sell your sugar,?

    Jul 04th, 2014 - 12:26 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The_TroLLing_Stone

    @30

    I follow you?

    haahahaha.

    I always try to post in unanswered threads to get away from you tosser twat losers, and it is the rest of you who follow me.

    Jul 04th, 2014 - 12:38 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    Woof woof there he is...good puppy.
    Don't be mad at me I told you this would happen.
    Its still not to late to buy more sugar.
    My guess is you wouldn't last too long in street fights over day old bread.

    Jul 04th, 2014 - 01:05 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Anglotino

    “I always try to post in unanswered threads to get away from you tosser twat losers, and it is the rest of you who follow me.”

    There are plenty of threads here where you can post to your heart's content without any “tosser twats” annoying you.
    es.mercopress.com

    Why aren't you posting there?
    Why do you keep responding to people here?

    Jul 04th, 2014 - 01:16 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The_TroLLing_Stone

    I am just posting undeniable truths and facts about your nations and cultures. It is you all who respond to my biographical contributions that force me to rejoinder.

    Next time when I post news items or historical facts of US, UK, EU, do not respond and I won't deign any of you a reply.

    Jul 04th, 2014 - 01:44 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Anglotino

    “It is you all who respond to my biographical contributions that force me to rejoinder.”

    Hear that guys!

    We are forcing Nostrils to reply to us.

    Wow to be so malleable and inclined to manipulation that we cause you to reply to us.

    “Next time when I post news items or historical facts of US, UK, EU, do not respond and I won't deign any of you a reply.”

    Why? Because that is the only way you can actually argue? When no one replies to show you up!

    Jul 04th, 2014 - 02:27 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • british bomber

    Roubini predicted the gr by looking at the robber barons like singer and hes looking at the same people now. When is America going to put singer in gaol. We are the 93%

    Jul 04th, 2014 - 04:24 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Anglotino

    “When is America going to put singer in gaol.”

    I estimate.... never!

    Jul 04th, 2014 - 05:01 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • golfcronie

    @36
    Put Singer in gaol. What for for? If there was a misdemeanor on his part I am sure he would be indicted, he has done nothing wrong. It is just business.

    Jul 04th, 2014 - 11:50 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • british bomber

    @38
    The whole of Wall St should be in gaol for the gr. We are the 93%

    Jul 04th, 2014 - 12:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Anglotino

    Pretty sure Cristina will end up in jail before Singer.

    Jul 04th, 2014 - 01:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    BB. Does us a favor and hold your breath waiting for Wall Street to be jailed. Crying about the 93% not getting paid is useless. You want a safe place for your extra money? Then do not put it in equities and debenture instruments.....tell grandma to put it under her mattress. Can't handle the heat of investing in junk bonds like Argentina...? Then get out of the financial kitchen.

    Jul 04th, 2014 - 02:41 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • british bomber

    @41
    But the Argies have paid the bonds. But robber baron singer is trying to steal the money. The heat is not the bonds but the highway robbery of wall st.

    Jul 05th, 2014 - 06:33 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • reality check

    But the Argies have paid back the bonds?

    FFS!

    Who is this guy?

    Does he honestly think we are going to swallow the shit he's spouting!

    He's grateful that they are paying back his nan, 25%, thats 25%! of the life savings his imaginary nan invested!

    What a pathetic piece of propoganda.

    1/10 must try harder!!!!!

    Jul 05th, 2014 - 06:53 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • british bomber

    @43
    The Argies have paid on time. Now they have deposited money in BNY to pay up to June. Robber Baron Singer is trying to stop this money. He is too gutless to try to seize it because he knows the political consequences. We are the 93%.

    Jul 05th, 2014 - 09:14 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • reality check

    If you were for real. If your nan had lost 75% of her investment.

    Then you would do what any REAL grandson would do, you would be all over this like a ferkin rash! Trying to get ALL of her money back.

    Not acting like an ingrate, kissing the ass of the benevolent RG's every chance you get, what for? a measly 25%!

    A real grandson would me mad as hell that his nan had been cheated in the first place!

    That's what a REAL grandson would be.

    Your not even the 0.0000000000000000000001%

    You a fraud and an Argentine Kirchnerite and not a clever one at that!!!!!!!

    Jul 05th, 2014 - 09:43 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • british bomber

    @45
    She has the records. My grandmother has not lost 75% of her investment. Why do you keep repeating it.

    She may lose 100% of her investment to highway robber robber Singer. The Argies have written to all bond holders saying that they have the trade data so they can bypass.

    Jul 05th, 2014 - 10:34 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ChrisR

    @ 46 british bomber
    “She has the records. My grandmother has not lost 75% of her investment. Why do you keep repeating it(?)”

    Because it happens to be the truth! If you do not realise that you are uneducated in what your crooked “government” did to the people who trusted them with their money, if you still claim that then you are lying.

    Your choice: numbnut OR liar?

    Jul 05th, 2014 - 11:22 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • reality check

    How much of an haircut did nan take then?

    Jul 05th, 2014 - 11:54 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • british bomber

    @47
    If it is the truth then you can tell me when and how she lost this money. I tell you that she has not lost any until singer got his robber baron hands on the bonds the other day. He wants to take 100%.
    The Argies have written to all bonds that they have the trade data and are willing to bypass to pay their money.

    Jul 06th, 2014 - 02:14 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • reality check

    Answer the question, how much of an haircut did nan take?

    What is the amount she lost, the amount that you seems to advocate was manifestly acceptable to her.

    5%. 10%. 20%. 40%. More?

    Just how much is acceptable, to you as a “loving grandson,” for your nan to lose?

    Grandsons everywhere, real ones that is, are waiting for your answer?

    Jul 06th, 2014 - 11:03 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • british bomber

    @50
    I have told you many times. My grandmother has lost 0%. Or nothing. But now because of theft by highway robber singer she may loose 100% because she has to pay him. Another time of the poor paying the rich for their big houses and yachts. But the lawyers are mobilising.

    Jul 06th, 2014 - 11:51 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    Forget it RC. This la campora was not explained from the beginning what an Argentine haircut was. That is why when he made up the story about grandma it does not have her losing money.
    bb let us pretend your ficticious granny did not lose money in the swaps like EVERY bondholder at the time did. This means she bought bonds after Argentina defaulted and become junk bond status. Why would a retired,elderly person buy junk bonds or take on that level of risk? You should have thought more before your story. Most grannies would have died of a heart attack by now investing in Argentina.

    Jul 06th, 2014 - 12:36 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • reality check

    @52
    Agree.
    Fictitious Kirchnerite Troll!
    Pay up you odious Argentine carpet bagger.

    Jul 06th, 2014 - 04:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • british bomber

    @52
    You have not explained why you think my grandmother has lost money. You can't.
    My grandmother a real person and is a victim of your boss the highway robber wall st robber barron singer

    Jul 06th, 2014 - 06:08 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • reality check

    And my grandmother plays centre foreword for Brazil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Jul 06th, 2014 - 07:56 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    BB I can try and try to make it as simple as possible for you.

    Argentina borrowed over 100,000,000,000 in bonds in the 90s. Argentina soon realized it could not pay the debt back so along comes Nasty “Bugged eyed” Nestor and refused to pay it and took Argentina into default. In 2005 OLD BUG EYE offered to take the bonds back in a new deal bug not pay all the borrowed money back.

    Let's say your granny invested U$100,000
    Company A invested 25,000,000,000
    Company B invested 10,000,000,000
    Company C invested 50,000,000,000
    and the rest 15,000,000,000

    Under the new deal, they would pay interest on only 27% of what they borrowed. Meaning?

    Granny would get interest on 27,000 and lost =73,000 in principle investment
    Company A interest on 6,750,000,000 lost =17,250,000,000 in principle investment
    Company B interest on 2,750,000,000 lost = 7,250,000,000 in principle interest
    Company C interest on 13,500,000,000 lost = 36,500,000,000 in principle interest.

    That amigo is an Argentine haircut. 73% of the investment creditor (your granny) gave to Argentine was never going to be paid back. Everything being paid now will never return what investors gave to Argentina. They are only recouping to minimize their losses and that includes your dear old fake granny in Britain.

    2010 more came on board because it was hopeless to recover money from Argentina......until NOW!

    Your grandmother lost 77% of what she gave them. Also, why do you think they sued in New York state? Because the bonds were underwritten their and NOT in the UK.

    If you believe anything else your are stupid or La Campora.....but then what is the difference?

    Jul 06th, 2014 - 10:45 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • british bomber

    @56
    I will try to keep it as simple as possible.

    You are assuming that my grandmother has got the bonds in a certain way. Your long rubbish does nor apply to her. my grandmother has lost 0% of principle or interest. 0% got it. What does apply is that highway robber singer is trying to steal my grandmothers money. Wall St scum like him and you need to be in gaol.

    Jul 07th, 2014 - 12:14 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    You're fucking stupider than a rock......period. Go back to the lab.

    Oh I get it know........granny was part of the graft and was paid by nasty Bug eye nestor in bonds rather than a salary.

    Please.....enlighten us all on the uncertain way granny bought her bonds? Because if she invested after the default.......she is living proof rocks can multiply.

    Jul 07th, 2014 - 01:36 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • golfcronie

    @58
    Oh please reassure me that the Argies are not all as dumb as our friend BB, because if they are then Argie land has no chance. Incidently SINGER is a far better business person than BBs “ my grandmother ” bullshit. She should have done due diligence and bought up the distressed bonds as SINGER did. LMAO

    Jul 07th, 2014 - 08:34 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • british bomber

    @58
    My grandmother has only owned the euro bonds. These have never defaulted. Even now the Argies are paying them but robber baron singer is trying to steal the money. I don't know when the highway robber singer bought his bonds but I think it was after my grandmother. The Argies have written that they can bypass. The lawyers are doing stuff now.

    Jul 07th, 2014 - 09:12 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    #59 No they are not....but he is the standard from la campora. The smart working class are becoming more and more a minority. I do not k now why but everytime I hear the “baron”....I think of Eric Von Zipper from Beach Blanket Bingo. I wonder if #60....aka “the Rock” understand the ramifications on international banks if they act on Elvis' stupid ideas?

    Jul 07th, 2014 - 09:39 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • golfcronie

    @60
    How many times must you be told IF and I reiterate IF “ your grandmothers” bonds were underwritten in England then “ your grandmother ” can sue Argentina in the ENGLISH Courts.
    “ your grandmother ” is not going to leave you much inheritance as the Argies are only going to give “ your grandmother 20% of her money back as ”she” agreed to a haircut. Good luck with that.

    Jul 07th, 2014 - 09:51 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Anglotino

    British Bomber

    I think if your grandmother would just hurry up and die it would:
    * solve her missed payment problem
    * solve you worrying about it
    * solve Argentina's defaulting as her estate can graciously donate her bonds to CFK
    * declutter these fora of your repetitive whining

    Jul 07th, 2014 - 02:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • british bomber

    @62
    The Argies have paid. Keep up. The law suit has been started against the trustees BNY and Euroclear. My grandmother just got the notification from the lawyers.

    Jul 08th, 2014 - 05:43 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    Post it in photo bucket and send a link?

    Your lying makes you a piece of human feces. You are so stupid to ignore the amounts that Argentina cut out......close to 90, 000,000,000 of what was given to Argentina will never be paid back to the bondholders.

    Do you understand that....does your buddies at La Campora? Argentine's like you are killing your country.

    Jul 08th, 2014 - 02:14 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • british bomber

    @65
    Post what.
    My grandmother will be paid everything if robber baron singer does not steal.
    I don't know anybody in Argentina. Don't know where campora is.

    Jul 09th, 2014 - 04:37 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    You....are not a Brit. You are by far way too stupid. You barely understand English as you do not even know the question I asked of you.

    Stay in the lab.....you need re-tooling.

    Jul 09th, 2014 - 02:51 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • british bomber

    @67
    You are not a Brit. You ask stupid questions.

    Both I and my grandmother are proudly British.

    You don't know anything about bonds. Why don't you ask your boss robber baron singer.

    Jul 11th, 2014 - 07:35 am - Link - Report abuse 0

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