MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
Soros signals Argentina’s shale is biggest place to be
One of the world’s legendary investors is upping his bet on Argentina’s shale oil and gas industry in a show of confidence for shale production in South America’s largest unconventional prize —and a big boost for both super-majors and smaller players making big waves in the heart of new discovery areas. Read full article
Comments
Disclaimer & comment rulesSo these ones aren't the vulture funds?
Sep 03rd, 2014 - 10:27 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Right?
”According to the Financial Times, “Some of the world’s largest hedge funds have been snapping up Argentine stocks, betting on an economic recovery in the country even though it defaulted on its debt for the second time in 13 years.”
Sep 03rd, 2014 - 10:48 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Did Yankeeboy predicts this...????.......;-))))
....ermmm...nope....
The Merval is an interesting animal, it is one of the few ways that Rgs can get U$ equivalents. I think that's why its been going up. Not the hedge fund buying.
Sep 03rd, 2014 - 11:06 pm - Link - Report abuse 0This is another sign of desperation to get some sort of savings in something worth anything.
Think about this, these Rgs are willing to invest in a volatile stock just to get their hands on some sort of U$.
It is sad.
I also think VM is a bust. If there was something substantial there somebody would be drilling. And only 16 active drills tells me there's nada.
Soros or Yankeeboy, Soros or Yankeeboy.....I just don't know who I should trust....
Sep 03rd, 2014 - 11:16 pm - Link - Report abuse 0....Not...;-))))
Give me a better explanation of why after many many many years and many many many road shows they still only have a 1 major, Chevron, drilling and they had to coerce them to make that tiny investment!
Sep 03rd, 2014 - 11:24 pm - Link - Report abuse 0There's more drilling near your fantasy PA hills home than in all of Argentina.
I am not sure if its the narco gov't that is currently running Argentina or if there's nothing there. O/G companies deal with all kinds of nasty corrupt heads of state so I think that is pretty telling.
Soros is an ally of Cristina. He recomended her a few months ago to contract Paul Clement to influence the “GOP” judges at SCOTUS and force a favorable outcome. We now how that worked
Sep 03rd, 2014 - 11:24 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Soros is a ally of every disgusting Marxist running the world.
Sep 03rd, 2014 - 11:29 pm - Link - Report abuse 0He is evil.
So the FT is wrong and “Some of the world’s largest hedge funds have not been snapping up Argentine stocks”....
Sep 03rd, 2014 - 11:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0How dare they publish lies....I suppose the FT must be an ally of Cristina too....
Its not wrong it just neglected to mention the desperation buying from the Rgs.
Sep 04th, 2014 - 12:01 am - Link - Report abuse 0Are you kind of an idiot?
Have you been smacked in the mouth a time or two in a bar?
You're not funny or clever so stop trying it is making you look foolish.
As time passes it seems that the Argentinian government was right to get the Spanish out of ypf.
Sep 04th, 2014 - 12:45 am - Link - Report abuse 0Can't wait to see what happens when they inevitably try to hoodwink Soros. ;)
Sep 04th, 2014 - 01:03 am - Link - Report abuse 0“Soros signals Argentina’s shale is biggest place to be”
Sep 04th, 2014 - 02:28 am - Link - Report abuse 0Keep the good job yankeeboy :-))))))))))))))
Soros = collaborator Look for the short setup.
Sep 04th, 2014 - 03:44 am - Link - Report abuse 0Merval runup is the arbolito reflected for those who are equally terrified - only on a larger scale. Arbitrage money rides the trend, pushing and pulling every week for a few coins.
Smeagol, you really don't have a clue - do you?
It is a safe harbor in a Peso devaluation meltdown where you can still escape with Argentine capital without Cristina getting her hooks into it.
Sep 04th, 2014 - 03:47 am - Link - Report abuse 0http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-02/argentines-flock-to-stocks-as-default-propels-best-gains.html
3: Yankyeeboy.
Sep 04th, 2014 - 09:08 am - Link - Report abuse 0Yes; you have a very good point there; if it is there, why haven't “they” drilled already. Crucial question.
Can a factor against it be the probable consequences for the present government at the (as said, possibly alleged) consequent massive wealth generated, and the social and political changes required to meet that unknown. Perhaps CFK and government couldn't hack it: they might have to lose their power-base.
9
Sep 04th, 2014 - 09:10 am - Link - Report abuse 0It's obviously Fred the Estate Agent that is the idiot (You)....a weak attempt to deflect...
I am sure the FT can tell who is “snapping up Argentine stocks”
I'm sure Argentines do buy Argentine stocks...just like Yanks also buy Yankee stocks...
This article is not about the Merval it is about Soros and “Some of the World's largest Hedge Funds”
If it was about Argentines flocking to stocks it would obviously mention it...
...you stupid dumb-ass salesman....
Has your house appeared in the Design Magazine yet...?.....;-)))...of all the porkies you tell, that's the tallest and funniest.....I thought you said it was being “Painted”...not redesigned.....
...and by low class Soccer fans...
Don't you remember anything you say....to be a good liar you need a good memory...I reckon!
Voice, You're just jealous, again my phone hasn't rung. So how come? Have you been bothering that poor guy instead?
Sep 04th, 2014 - 10:40 am - Link - Report abuse 0Your kind dumb so let me try to explain why the Merval is different, nobody in a legitimate country buys stocks to avoid currency collapse. Nobody. They buy other assets certainly not stocks. That's not what happens in Argentina though, they're scared of banks, they're terrified of the peso, for gosh sakes they buy cars, so yeah the Merval is a different animal as I was saying and as the article mentioned in post 14.
I think you get so mad because things that are normal for me seem like I am bragging.
Sorry I think I'm mainly answering questions from people.
You're like a dumb dog jealous because I have a cookie.
Calm down.
As I've said everything I've ever posted is true.
Voice even if yb was a Real Estate broker ....you do realize that their commission is 3 to 5 % on a sale. The brokers I know earn in the low to mid 6 digit figure.
Sep 04th, 2014 - 12:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0What is it you do that you seem to think calling one a RE Broker is an insult?
Pops....All he is doing, is trying to deflect.....nowhere in this article does it mention RG's buying stock...that is a different news piece altogether.....
Sep 04th, 2014 - 12:24 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The Bloomberg article clearly defines the difference between foreigners investing long term because they believe there is a recovery on the horizon....and RG's buying stock....
Exerts from top ten most hated professions....
Estate Agent...No.3
“Every single one I have ever dealt with is a moron. The funny thing is, when they open their mouths to speak they think they are being smart.”
“Muppets! The lot. Self centered, egotistical, non compassionate gits!”
“Never met a profession so up themselves. They really believe their own PR.”
http://www.thetoptens.com/hated-professions/
...now..... who is that describing....
...if that isn't YB to a tee...I don't know what is....
He's mad because when he, Think, Marcos says something stupid about me there are plenty of others who prove him wrong.
Sep 04th, 2014 - 12:24 pm - Link - Report abuse 0He really doesn't like that everything I've been telling them will happen is happening.
Just wait, next it will be the auto mfgs shutting their doors and Soy plantings falling to pre-2005 levels.
They think the last 1/2 year of 2014 has been tough, they haven't seen anything yet.
The thing that amuses me is that IF VM is such a good deal where is the gas and oil?
Sep 04th, 2014 - 12:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Why do we see ‘it is expected to have nearly 300 wells drilled in the Loma Campana/Loma La Lata area’ and not 3,000 wells have been drilled? The idiot from Schlumberger just hasn’t come up with the goods.
This little gem is priceless: “For oil and gas explorers both big and small, Argentina is back--with possibly more shale than the United States, and the industry is more active than ever.” Really? More active than ever no less, so where’s the proof and why are the argies having to import most of their HC needs when they have MORE than the US?.
Stafford must be on the sauce.
18. Oh I forgot throughout the years, it is claimed I have been a waiter, shoe salesman, leather good rep, drug addict (although not a career), married, separated, to an Arg woman, not an Arg woman, have kids, don't have kids, bald, fat...on and on
Sep 04th, 2014 - 12:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0There's been so many things, so many.
Yet here I am still plugging along offering my sage advice for free.
Chris as they say the proof is in the pudding. YPF is drilling 16 wells at a time most of those are expanding or re-drilling proven reserves. If there was PROFITABLE O/G somebody would be exploring for it.
They're not
Muerte=Dead
BTW my guess is we'll be seeing a lot of Voice and Marcos and very little of Think until there some sort of news he can pretend supports the corrupted state. And there's not going to be much of that coming anytime soon.
The original article that seems to have started it all:
Sep 04th, 2014 - 01:33 pm - Link - Report abuse 0http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b02b0524-18ca-11e4-933e-00144feabdc0.html
I especially like these quotes:
“High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b02b0524-18ca-11e4-933e-00144feabdc0.html
Analysts said the complicated nature of the country’s default had left some investors hopeful that a resolution could still be reached, and that exchange bondholders stand to gain if a deal is struck with holdout creditors.”
“Argentina was one of a number of countries that were “so bad, they’re good”, and said a default would provide a buying opportunity for investors.”
Oh yeah, the article is date July 31st..... 5 weeks ago.
Voice that list must be Europeans as we don't have traffic wardens and estate agents. I think at best you are guessing (and not an educated one at that) at what he does. You may as well guess at my profession, for I know you would never get it. Perhaps a previous one, but not my current one. At any rate.......we all deflect at one post or another.
Sep 04th, 2014 - 04:22 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Pops you charter boats and erm...planes.....
Sep 04th, 2014 - 04:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 099 guesses to go....;-)
So it took est U$500MM to bring the blue peso down to 14/1 and the Merval down 3%.
Sep 04th, 2014 - 04:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0So that U$ is gone
What are they going to do next week?
And what are they going to do when the Int' companies demand to repatriate their U$ or close?
I wonder.
@26 They will let them close down any company that doesn't make anything for export as they are “leeches”, if any company that exports closes down I guess they will try to expropiate it or find some local buyer to keep the factory running.
Sep 04th, 2014 - 06:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Nobody will be able to repatriate anything for at least 3 years and that's if dollars start coming in. The government doesn't want to be communist but they aren't going to let anyone take dollars out as long as they are short of cash. Even after the economy normalises there might be clamp to serve as a warning that the gov't will go after anyone making a currency run. The Peronists are fed up of companies getting cash out of the country as soon as the economy grows for a few years.
Long way off V, as I said ....you wouldn't get it....ever. Does not matter anyway, it's only an occupation.
Sep 04th, 2014 - 06:23 pm - Link - Report abuse 0So 1/3 of the banks remaining U$ is gone, dropping from 30% to 20% .......is that 9 billion? It hardly propped the sinking peso. The big fear now is that the government will start rifling deposit boxes.
......we could play 20 questions....?...and call it, “What's Pops job”...it's got a ring to it....;-)
Sep 04th, 2014 - 07:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@29
Sep 04th, 2014 - 07:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Probably more fun for you than discussing Soros getting his claws into what's left of Argentina's economy.
Scotland will be free soon, “Britain” will be dead .. Then UK also disappear .. The English were alone and finally die illusion called “British Empire” .. Then it will be time to “Las Malvinas and Gibraltar” again their homes .. The countdown has begun ..
Sep 04th, 2014 - 08:19 pm - Link - Report abuse 0How about “what in the world does Pop's do”?
Sep 04th, 2014 - 09:09 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I agree with you #30, when Soros gets his claws into Argentina's skin, they will wish him adios. The man who broke the bank of England has a long list of accomplishments......multiple times of .stock manipulation, currency manipulation, political influence pendling. A Warren Buffet he is not. You can have him Argentina.........along with your VM. He has a lot of bodies in his wake.
We could play 20 guesses, what's A-holes job?
Sep 04th, 2014 - 09:51 pm - Link - Report abuse 0My guess is drunk Scottish tramp shouting in the street and scrounging a few quid to go into an Internet cafe and rant some more.
I bet his stinks of a mix between cheap whiskey and piss.
As I said, Argentina’s stockmarket gains are why investors are buying equities as protection against peso depreciation, soaring inflation and to legally skirt around currency controls. Gibraltar and the Falklands will be just fine.
Sep 04th, 2014 - 10:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Now I am sad Voice doesn't seem to care what everyone does for a living.
Sep 04th, 2014 - 10:17 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Why am I singled out?
Awww
:(
Yep he's a loud mouth loser from a low class family. I've been dealing with those types my whole life.
33
Sep 04th, 2014 - 11:48 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Where's Troy Tempest....;-))))...you don't fool me....
Ah...there he is...Monkey Magic.....
Still pretending to be British.......one way or another.....PMSL.....
35
You are not singled out...I'm pretty interested in what Pops does.....bet it's not a sales rep....that's all you know......
You are a Yank...you can't be anything but low class.....so you are bound to have been dealing with them all your life.....
...and you can't get much lower than an Estate Agent...can you....hardly what you might call a profession....
Now I am a sales rep? Wasn't I a waiter a little while ago?
Sep 05th, 2014 - 12:02 am - Link - Report abuse 0Is that a promotion?
BTW am I still divorced?
Silly fool, are you drunk all the time or just when you post?
I bet you don't even know how I can tell you are from a low class background.
I bet its driving you crazy trying to figure it out.
:)
The more you comment the dumber you appear......would you say a realtor sells things....and usually for a company....
Sep 05th, 2014 - 12:17 am - Link - Report abuse 0..or do they give houses away.....
...sales rep by any other name.....
...and don't you remember admitting that you were at one time....wait for it....
a waiter...;-))))
are you going senile....?
Yanks have no idea about class per se......the whole world knows that.....
So then I did get a promotion! Wow! Lucky me.
Sep 05th, 2014 - 12:30 am - Link - Report abuse 0My Dad will be thrilled that all the money he spent on my education is finally paying off.
We could take a quick poll on who looks dumb after a post.
Pretty sure its not me.
Anyone? Anyone?
Chime in at will people
I know exactly they types you are hanging around and you are right they don't understand the difference.
I think you are sad, lonely and angry you've always been looked down upon.
What education..you are a one trick pony....one subject is all you have....
Sep 05th, 2014 - 12:46 am - Link - Report abuse 0Did you notice the contradiction.....if I'm hanging around people how can I be lonely...?...Doh!
So let me get this straight...
Fred Bates the realtor in Washington and previously a sales rep for a large company travelling about the States...(on the road) is convinced that he knows better than insightful Billionaire Soros...and wants us all to believe him...
Have I got that straight...?
Is your autism so bad that you don't realise how ridiculous that sounds....;-)))
Is the sun going to rise tomorrow...?
I'm in the mood for one of your spooky predictions...
Tell me about the gas tanker again...that's now one of my favourite bedtime stories as it's now way past my bedtime....
....I could ridicule you all night...but I need to sleep now....much to my regret....
You are such fun...
@40
Sep 05th, 2014 - 01:58 am - Link - Report abuse 0Actually Soros does not make statements like this unless it is to manipulate others into doing something that will profit HIM. Can't wait to see how it all ends up, as Argentina is the bait, apparently ;)
YB, Poppy
Sep 05th, 2014 - 05:36 am - Link - Report abuse 0It's funny that Voicey has to provoke and goad people with insults, to get any response at all.
You would think he would get enough at home.
Mind you, I expect anyone who knows him in the real world, steers well clear.
Therefore, he has to look for attention, here.
I love the pronouncements, “I'm going to bed now, so I won't be available”, etc.
- who cares???
Please don't feed the Troll, boys !!
:-D
Well Troy, Sometimes I am bored and he's easy since he's emotionally unstable and a half wit.
Sep 05th, 2014 - 10:32 am - Link - Report abuse 0He is easy to toy with poor thing.
Sometimes he and another poster don't even know if its morning or night.
He is a sad lonely guy raging at the world for being looked down upon his whole life.
Much like some of the other personas on here.
Wonder why?
BTW I wonder where Think has been?
How odd he's not been resurrected just when everything is going so well in the motherland.
How odd.
42
Sep 05th, 2014 - 12:16 pm - Link - Report abuse 027
PMSL.....Where's Troy I asked....lo and behold after hours of nobody posting he appears at 05:36 am on the this thread and followed by Monkeymagic after hours of nobody posting at 05:55 am....
Posted as Troy then switched ID's and posted ...both at me......Doh!
Why don't you fcuk off trying to pretend you are two separate people....IDIOT!!!
Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.....
I was chucking last night thinking poor ol V trying to meet quality people at JC Penny, Burlington Coat factory, Red Lobster and Olive Garden in the hills of Lycoming PA.
Sep 05th, 2014 - 01:06 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I bet even they looked down upon him.
43 YB
Sep 05th, 2014 - 01:26 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“...he's emotionally unstable and a half wit. ”
“He is a sad lonely guy raging at the world for being looked down upon his whole life.”
I agree.
It's amusing that Voicey rejoices when people arrive, only for the sake of calling him an idiot and pointing out his flaws.
I guess any attention is better than no attention. LOL !!
Neither Think nor BK have been saying much about “Madam President”, lately!
I kinda get that feeling too. I think he likes the humiliation.
Sep 05th, 2014 - 01:44 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Poor old Think must be embarrassed all these years of supporting a corrupt regime is blowing up in his face.
45
Sep 05th, 2014 - 02:11 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Got to take what is there....if you feel that you are able to recommend shopping within a moderate travelling distance (American joke) of Trout Run...feel free....
One thing I have noticed is the Yanks are not that big height wise (they are width wise) so folk don't tend to look down on me.....a bit like yourself...one would need to be at least 6'3” + to do that.....;-)))
I am 6' ( and .5 of an inch) and 195 Voice......I was on the smaller end of typical in my former occupations. Perhaps (assuming these Americans you know) you should choose better American friends or you are a product of the media......just my opinion, coming from a classless American. One more thing, size.....physical size is meaningless in life and death because I've seen some of the most ordinary men render breathless some fairly sizable men, without weapons no less.
Sep 05th, 2014 - 03:34 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I do chuckle when you must mention your characteristics in somewhat of a braggart manner. Is that because there is no one that respects or metaphorically looks up to you to do that for you? It was always the humble, quiet man who I was trained to look over my shoulder and keep an eye on......but you probably know that...right?
@49 Captain Poppy
Sep 05th, 2014 - 05:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Leading the team of personal bodygurds for your company executives?
Pops...don't take my Yankee bashing to heart......you know it's only for YB's benefit.....I have lots of Yankee relatives...
Sep 05th, 2014 - 07:32 pm - Link - Report abuse 0...but I must admit the first time I went to the States I flew into JFK then took another flight to Tampa....
I had grown up with the belief that all Yanks were big (movies I guess)...and I was looking over a sea of heads thinking are these all foreigners.... where are the Yanks....
Where I am from..I'm pretty much average height....
...that .5 of an inch is very important..I lost a quarter of an inch off the first and second lumbar when I broke my back (compression fracture) coming off a superbike.....I still miss it......;-)
lol I wish Chris.......I am still a bit banged up from my previous career. I will make one further statement. My first born son is almost 6'6“ and 230.....and my baby son is 6'4” 210 and both workout monsters. All my kids are from my previous marriage......all eastern Euro genes.
Sep 05th, 2014 - 08:14 pm - Link - Report abuse 0V I take very little things to heart least they physically affect me. I find both of you can deflect with the best of them. As for the size of Yankees as you say, I find if they are older than 60 they are probably well under 6' and most likely under 5'10“. My age range is around 5'10” to 6 and they younger generation seem to be quite tall.......as I can see. Nothing scientific purely speculative. However with the influx of immigrants they are taking the heights down somewhat as they interbreed.
Funny you mention lumbar.....c 4,5 ,6 and 7 are fused in 3 separate surgeries and my spine still has shit pressed on it that they will not remove as I will not risk the possibility of walking.
Anyrate.......I may not agree with yb on some of his positions of socio-economic policies, but he does appear to have a basis of what he is talking about.
oooooohhh!
Sep 05th, 2014 - 09:35 pm - Link - Report abuse 0What a bitchfest!
Gentlemen, please calm down! lol!
Has anyone considered theat Soros may be playin a game?
Show some interest. The price goes up. He gets out. Massive profit, The losers are left with a Dead Cow?
Just a thought....
;-)
As you were.
@53
Sep 05th, 2014 - 09:49 pm - Link - Report abuse 0That was my point with comment 41, Soros does things to manipulate the market in his favor, and once he gets enough he's out before the crash. Anyone who has watched this show before knows the drill. If I were the Argentine government, I'd be worried about his involvement, as it is a sure sign trouble is coming, and not for him. ;)
@ 53 ilsen
Sep 05th, 2014 - 10:34 pm - Link - Report abuse 0With Soros it was always thus.
I agree with you both. Any billionaire trying to make more billions is not about to share his honeypot unless it is not making billions....or even millions.
Sep 05th, 2014 - 10:56 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@54 (& others)
Sep 06th, 2014 - 12:00 am - Link - Report abuse 0Good Call. Guess I must have skipped over that one! Bloody Voicey takes up so much useless space sometimes. My apologies are offered.
:-)
I think Soros is just playing with them.
Cristina, Elvis et al really don't know what they are dealing with.
Hubris is a killer.
ha!
Soros is an amazing individual. I suggest you google his bio as it's fascinating.
Sep 06th, 2014 - 02:02 am - Link - Report abuse 0In his previous business transactions, including breaking the Bank of England.
He takes no prisoners and I think he's about to take Argentina “to the cleaners...”
For the record, I'm 178cm, roughly 5'10”, which is slightly above my country's height average. (To be fair, I'm of European stock and received a good diet during my youth. Curiously, my children, with one exception, taller than their parents.
Argentines and Uruguayans are on average taller than Chileans. I think it's because they eat more protein, but it could be because of the genetic makeup...
I'm currently in the States and they are definitely heavier than Europeans and Latinos. I think it's diet, as they eat too few vegetables and fruit.
Drinking a beautiful Pinot Grigio from Australia.
¡Saludos!
Chicu that's kind of funny. When I go to Argentina they always ask if I'm vegan because I eat veggies and they never serve them in restaurants there. Most Americans are ovrweight .....I am not......it depends on the socio level of they people....generally speaking.........poorer is fatter.
Sep 06th, 2014 - 02:46 am - Link - Report abuse 0Soros is not a philanthropist...........he is about to eat Argentina
Related is an editorial at HP: http://t.co/SdcHvY8mqZ
Sep 06th, 2014 - 03:43 am - Link - Report abuse 0This opinion correlates reasonably well with what we have been seeing from Argentina for a number of years. Also Brazil is another country that is worth watching in the technology field.
Has anybody opened HepC/ BritishBomber's link @60 ??
Sep 06th, 2014 - 05:45 am - Link - Report abuse 0Dead-cow bounce - Politics is the biggest hurdle to developing the enormous Vaca Muerta field.
Sep 06th, 2014 - 11:56 am - Link - Report abuse 0Juan José Aranguren, the boss of Shell’s Argentine subsidiary - his biggest concern is the lack of a clear regulatory framework.
“We’re not asking for the world. We just want to see long-term policies grounded in laws that cannot be changed on a whim”
http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21613314-politics-biggest-hurdle-developing-enormous-vaca-muerta-field-dead-cow-bounce
YPF doesn't have enough cash to make consequential exploration in Argenentina. Every year their production goes down and their imports go up. That's not going to change in this decade or maybe even the next.
Sep 06th, 2014 - 12:15 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Next year Soy may be unprofitable to plant. Without Soy or Cars Argentina can not afford fuel. Anyway you look at it they simply do not have the U$ to buy what they need.
Now what?
@62 Aranguren is in Argentina, he IS asking for the world. Peronists´ only long term policy is to take as much as they possibly can.
Sep 06th, 2014 - 01:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@63 Hopefully once CFK leaves more dollars come in, otherwise the economy won´t get running. But investors need to invest first, then they can see real changes in policy. The farmers need to switch to another commodity, it´s about time, if they keep up with soy they will turn the Pampas into desert. Though maybe this is what the Peronists want, so capitalists have no choice but to invest in manufacturing.
U$ are not going to rush in just because CFK is gone. The next Prez will have to come into alignment with the world financial community, show good faith and then investment will return.
Sep 06th, 2014 - 01:27 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Who knows when that will be though. 2020? later?
There's no reason to mfg in Argentina, the work force is expensive, the utilities are expensive, the corruption tax is high, and even with the chance of being able to eek out a slim profit it has a very good chance of being confiscated or “clamped” so you never see it.
It will be a huge blow when the Auto companies pull out.
When one goes they'll all go.
Peronists are making it very easy to leave never to return
Your economy can't survive on farming alone. It is too out of balance. Even now every penny from Soy is going to pay for fuel.
That means absolutely nothing else can be imported.
nothing
I don't think many understand the precarious predicament that Argentina is in now.
When it collapses it will be worse than 2001.
Much worse and last much longer.
@65 The government may try to come into alignment with the financial community but unless the invisible hand of the market gives the people everything they want without working harder it won´t work.
Sep 06th, 2014 - 01:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The people will try to kill as much people with cash as they can to get their Human Rights and they will try to make sure the damage is spread as far outside Argentina as possible. There MAY be forced Stalinist industrilization. The Peronists knew the economy wouldn´t be able to survive from farming alone but if they can´t get the capitalists to industrilize it they will have to try to industrilize it through force.
Well that´s IF you are right. So far you are the only one who is predicting such a catastrophe. Nobody else is. Maybe the people who run the world from the shadows do, but they keep everything they know a secret...
One of the reasons they aren't predicting the collapse like I am is that they believe there's really U$28B and its enough to cushion the economy as it deteriorates.
Sep 06th, 2014 - 02:20 pm - Link - Report abuse 0If they have U$4B in free cash flow I'd be flabbergasted.
I can't see one reason for Auto companies to stay, just because they have factories and equipment set up isn't enough. The headwinds are too great and there are plenty of other places that would welcome them with generous credits to up their production there.
The Peronists could never create mfg industry to employee enough people to fix this problem.
There's no other path than a complete collapse so that it can be rebuilt.
Same as in Venezuela. For a long time I have thought Arg was about 5 yrs behind V's economic collapse, now I think that margin has shrunk to a year or two.
If you thought the last 1/2 of 2014 was bad just wait until 2015. I think you've seen the last of 2 digit inflation for awhile.
@67 IF economists really believe there are 28 billion in reserves they are either really stupid or liars. Most economists aren´t really bright but I´d be flabbergasted if they are that stupid.
Sep 06th, 2014 - 04:17 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Unfortunately rebuilding the economy would require a bailout, even then I don´t see how they can successfully manage the budget. After four years of economic growth the state will inevitably go into a fiscal deficit, even during the most brutal austerity policies, I think this is due to structural issues that will go over the IMF´s heads.
The people will only tolerate free market capitalism if they get to improve standard of living without working any harder. This would require a Marshall Plan though. I think what will likely happen is Communism in the richer provinces, a narco state on the poorer provinces, turmoil in neighboring countries and more staff that I don´t say so I won´t end up on a NSA watch list.
Argentina will lose its membership at the IMF at the next review. There's not going to be a bailout for a very long time. Nobody cares if Argentina fails. Its not strategically important any longer. It produces nothing that can't be produced cheaper and better somewhere else.
Sep 06th, 2014 - 05:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The best hope they have is a benevolent Brazil or China.
Good luck with that.
@69 Perhaps but if the outside world is so callous then you will become our enemy for good.
Sep 06th, 2014 - 06:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 070. Callous? We've bailed you out how many times over the last 200 yrs? 13? Don't you think sometime you should grow up and be responsible for you own actions?
Sep 06th, 2014 - 06:44 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Guess what the time is now.
There will be no more bailouts for the reasons I stated above.
The political relationship will be no different. Argentina lies, cheats and pretends they don't have to abide by anything they've ever signed. They are unreliable allies.
Which is the worst kind.
Does anyone care what Argentina thinks now?
Nope
You have nothing to offer the world
Absolutely nothing.
Most people couldn't even find it on a map and even fewer would care.
@71 Those bailouts were worse than nothing, they came with military dictatorship and IMF “recommendations” which contributed to our country's destruction, not to mention a pittance compared to the Marshall Plan, a real bailout.
Sep 06th, 2014 - 08:52 pm - Link - Report abuse 0And by the way, it was our Peronist politicians who lied and cheated the whole world, our military dictatorships bent over to the USA, so did the Radicals who were overthrown by the Peronists. The people aren't going to ever take responsability for the actions of our Peronist politicians because they borrowed the debt and defaulted behind our backs every single time. There is nothing we can do since the Peronists control everything and there is no real political alternative. We are sorry for what our politicians did, but by going after the people instead of the politicians who are responsible you are only helping the politicians to screw the people while they get to spend their stolen loot.
We cannot take responsability for our own actions for the simple reason that we are not politicians and will never be, we can only vote who will be responsible but we don't have any real choice as the only ones who can rule the country are the Peronists and none of the other parties managed to make a real political alternative. The last thing we want is more bloodshed as all that will accomplish is more deaths and more politicians who will take advantage for the situation, or even worse, narcos taking over the state.
You're already a narco state and by your own admission you're doomed.
Sep 06th, 2014 - 09:09 pm - Link - Report abuse 0It will be interesting to see what happens when the auto companies leave and you're left with only farming for internal needs with very little to export.
I doubt there will be civil war, the general population is as apathetic and hopeless as you seem to be.
You'll have hyperinflation, depression and make your way into the living standards of Bolivia.
Its too bad.
If you can you should try to move your family to the USA or Canada before it gets even worse.
@73 The general population is apathetic but the poor are desperate and willing to kill for a plate of food, and there are of course narcos and the mafia. There may not be civil war but it will get ugly.
Sep 07th, 2014 - 12:32 am - Link - Report abuse 0I don't think my country is doomed but we need someone from the outside to step in and help us stop the Peronists from screwing us until there is a real political alternative, but without taking over our country. Maybe a branch of the UN that puts corrupt politicians in jail, then their fancy army gets to do something of help for once.
74. Nobody from the outside is going to step in and run Argentina. It is funny you should even mention that, I have a friend from Central America and he was wishing the USA would send in death squads to kill all the gang members and corrupt politicians in his country. I said, what's in it for us?
Sep 07th, 2014 - 10:06 am - Link - Report abuse 0You've got to understand, nobody cares if Argentina fails. It doesn't have an economy big enough to save nor are you of strategic importance to anyone. CFK has also burned every bridge with every country/entity that could help you.
Nobody cares.
I've long thought the USA wants Argentina to fail to occupy Brazil. Let them take on the responsibility to protect their trade and borders. It will keep them from meddling in Int'l affairs and bothering the big boys.
Let's see how this rolls out we should know how fast the vortex will start spinning by Q2 2015.
@75 I understand but by doing nothing you are merely being accomplices of the people that bring misery to this world. It is time for nations to stop looking solely for their own asses and give dumps of money to corrupt leaders under the guise of “foreign aid”.
Sep 07th, 2014 - 01:54 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Who we give our money to is our business.
Sep 07th, 2014 - 02:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0By doing nothing we are making you accept responsibility.
It is not The USA who has been keeping you poor and stupid.
Take your aggression out on your corrupt politicians where it belongs.
@77 We are doing as much as we can but it is not enough. The government will always buy enough people to dispose of anyone they can't buy or overthrow a government, and the other political parties do nothing.
Sep 07th, 2014 - 02:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0That's too bad and the reason you'll end up having the livings standards of Bolivians by the next generation.
Sep 07th, 2014 - 02:14 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Don't expect anyone to bother helping Argentina out.
It is a lost cause.
Yes but it is exactly that mentality that is the problem with humanity. Colonialism was bad but the opposite attitude, of letting people fend by themselves even when they are defenseless is just as bad.
Sep 07th, 2014 - 03:53 pm - Link - Report abuse 080 Magnus
Sep 07th, 2014 - 05:32 pm - Link - Report abuse 0It would be nice to end the injustice and economic oppression by Peronist government insiders, I agree.
However, do you think that Argentineans, and especially the followers of the Bolivarian Revolution, will have any appetite for 'benevolent' foreigners taking over the economy, government, and complete control of their country?
Especially when they impose austerity and hardship as the “ tough love ” to get things back on track??
How do you think your neighbours in Brazil and the rest of LATAM would react?
Even if it were “good” for Argentina, the real fear of US Imperialism and the propaganda generated, would be unacceptable, wouldn't it?
If there is to be an “Argentinian Spring”, it has to be grassroots from within, otherwise it will lack legitimacy, don 't you think?
Sorry, looks like it's up to you.
@81 I said the UN should just put the corrupt politicians in jail, not to take over the government or to impose economic policies. If they just go after the corrupt politicians there would be suspicion at first but no crisis of legitimacy as long as they stick to ending corruption there wouldn't be a problem, in fact people would be glad the UN is finally doing something.
Sep 07th, 2014 - 11:30 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I don't advocate Springs because it is just plain old terrorism, only that when it is done against a regime the USA doesn't like they get called “freedom fighters”. Usually these revolutions make things worse and it will be definitely the case if it happens in Argentina since the people who make this grassroots revolutions are all narcos and criminals who are either hired by some thuggish politician or just want to cause chaos to loot everything they can. The last thing anyone would want is for them to take power. We already have enough criminals in government as it is. An Argentinian Spring is almost inevitable, but it will be a really bad nightmare.
The civilized people like me who would change things for the better wouldn't do a revolution, and sadly we need a leader to follow. The good news is that there are still some good judges who are going after this government's inner circle but I fear it is too little too late.
82 MagnusMaster
Sep 08th, 2014 - 07:41 am - Link - Report abuse 0“I said the UN should just put the corrupt politicians in jail, not to take over the government or to impose economic policies. If they just go after the corrupt politicians there would be suspicion at first but no crisis of legitimacy as long as they stick to ending corruption there wouldn't be a problem, in fact people would be glad the UN is finally doing something.”
Magnus,
Just how do think they would go about entering a sovereign territory and arresting the Administration?
How do you think they would put an end to corruption?
Do you think anything short of a full military invasion force could accomplish this?
I think it sounds naive to believe this is something the UN could or should do.
82. The people of Argentina need to fix this themselves. If they are too apathetic or stupid then that's their problem.
Sep 08th, 2014 - 11:49 am - Link - Report abuse 0Your posts are whiny and delusional, what happened to you? It like you've gone off the rails.
Mag I agree and disagree with you. The UN really cannot go around policing the world's corrupt politicians, that simple is just not an option. The power for this to come to fruition lies within the people themselves. Unfortunately when the vast majority is poor and ill educated, it is easy to find a savior in the corrupt ways such as the Kirchner's via meager handouts. If the Peronista's truly wanted the remove poverty they would be seeking opportunities for them, not not sustaining via handouts thus creating dependency.
Sep 08th, 2014 - 12:45 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I agree with you on revolt's and springs. Some here have seen them up close and and at best it sends the wrong signal/message if democracy is the ultimate goal. At worst it replaces polling and voting through fear and killings and this does not propagate democracy at all. Unfortunately democracy changes course like an CVN.......long and slow.....but in the end it works most of the time.
@83 Well yes it would need some military force, but not much. You can just do what the Americans did to Noriega in Panama, then at least kleptocrats will have some real threat. It is better than a revolution or civil war. But I'm not expecting you to do it of course, you have your heads too far your asses.
Sep 08th, 2014 - 04:23 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@84 I am whiny because I am fed up with you are scum who laugh at our disgraces and pretend that you are superior and you constantly treat us as subhumans. We are doing everything that is possible yet you still put the finger at us saying we are apathetic and stupid and we deserve to starve. Sorry but I am not going to tolerate any human being to denigrate me or my country in such a manner. And I am fed up of nations and humanity in general having their heads up their own ass.
@85 Unfortunately as long as we don't have a leader we are powerless. None of the current politicians can tackle corruption because most of them are corrupt and those who aren't just are deluded. We will have to vote the best dictator I guess.
You have to get in the streets then and take it back.
Sep 08th, 2014 - 06:53 pm - Link - Report abuse 086. You can add pathetic to the other descriptors.
Sep 08th, 2014 - 10:09 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You deserve to live in the misery that you've created for yourselves.
@88 I would rather be pathetic than scum like you.
Sep 08th, 2014 - 11:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Mag you have to keep at it. We have our issues here and we keep at it. Corporations and PACs pretty role out the carpet in American politics but we keep at it trying to stop the almost inevitable.....corporations having voting rights.
Sep 09th, 2014 - 09:28 am - Link - Report abuse 089. I think your attitude is very typical of the way Rgs act when contracts, agreements, treaties, etc all start going against your wishes.
Sep 09th, 2014 - 11:04 am - Link - Report abuse 0You get all mad try to blame someone else, get someone else to try to help you and blame blame blame everyone but yourselves.
You lot are untrustworthy and undeserving of help.
You lot need to grow up and accept responsibility because nobody is going to help you out of a mess you clearly created yourselves.
pathetic losers
@90 Don't worry we will keep at it. But unfortunately we don't have much time before the narcos or the Chinese take over.
Sep 09th, 2014 - 07:42 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@91 We won't accept responsability for things that are not our fault and are not in our control. That is neither fair nor just. How can we accept responsability when the government doesn't even tell us what the money they borrowed was spent on?
Now, I won't say that there stupid voters who are responsable, but even they are simply misguided and don't deserve such misery. In any case you can blame the corrupt who support this government, but these aren't the people who will suffer.
There is a big difference between accepting responsability and bending over whenever someone tries to rip you off. Yes there are people who break contracts but there are also people who fool people into signing things they don't want.
So again, its not your gov't since you didn't vote for them so you absolve yourself from all responsibility.
Sep 09th, 2014 - 08:37 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Arrested Development and Narcissistic Personality Disorder is a dangerous combination.
Somehow your whole society is plagued with these disorders.
I hope you like the way Bolivians live. That's the life your children will be living.
@94 “So again, its not your gov't since you didn't vote for them so you absolve yourself from all responsibility.”
Sep 10th, 2014 - 06:19 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Personally yes. In the case of the people who voted them, they have some responsability, but far less than those with real political power or real influence.
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