MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Mujica running for a Senate seat, since he anticipates a weak government

“The next government will need consensuses which are difficult to work out and I am prepared to help”, said Mujica

Uruguay president Jose Mujica believes that the next parliament to emerge from the 26 October general election will have a difficult conformation, complicating the government's performance and that is the reason why he accepted to run for a Senate seat.

“The next government will need consensuses which are difficult to work out and I am prepared to help” in the event of being elected, said Mujica in a radio interview in which he implicitly admitted the ruling coalition will not have the legislative absolute majority it has enjoyed over the last ten years.

This openly contradicts the official campaign argument from the ruling coalition, Broad Front, presidential ticket made up of former president Tabare Vazquez and his running mate Raul Sendic, who are pounding across Uruguay that coalition supporters will ensure the sufficient votes to continue with the majority in parliament.

Under the Uruguayan electoral system this means that the winning party on 26 October must garner at least 46% of valid ballots, and all public opinion polls coincide that Broad Front support is 'virtually' frozen at 41%, which means a divided parliament and a necessary understanding on the legislative agenda.

“The main priority and one of the most important reasons to run for the Senate is that I believe there are going to be difficulties in the working of the system and that you need a lot of negotiation capacity and a 'keep cool' spirit to try and reach the wide ranging consensuses, or at least partial, or on specific issues”, insisted Mujica who is openly campaigning, despite the fact he is strictly forbidden by the Uruguayan constitution of party militancy.

The latest public opinion polls in effect confirm Mujica's forecast: on 26 October no single party will have the absolute majority in any of the two houses that make up the Uruguayan legislative.

Furthermore the presidency will demand a runoff a month later at the end of November between the two most voted candidates since neither Vazquez or his runner up will reach eh 50% plus one.

“A country can have three situations: a good government, a bad one or no government at all. And if the political sides play for a draw, so that things won't work out and stagnate, this is going to be most painful for the country. And I believe I can help and contribute to a kind of helpful climate, as foreseen”, underlined president Mujica, whose term ends next March first.

Mujica thus will be heading the list of Senators of his grouping, Movement of Popular Participation, MPP, which he has led since its foundation and is currently disputing the main position among the different groups that make up the Broad Front coalition.

Opinion polls show that Mujica has the sufficient personal popularity and recognition to be elected to the Senate next to his wife, Lucia Topolansky, who is also a Senator in the current legislature.

Mujica's announcement, besides the fact he is a great campaigner, not only sheds shadow on the coalition's presidential ticket (Vazquez-Sendic) and its speech, but given all the resources and exposure as head of government he can appeal to, also anticipates his strong presence (if not dominant) in any dealings with the new government, be it incumbent or from the opposition.

In effect Vazquez an oncologist by profession came into politics quite late in life and was elected mayor of Montevideo and ten years later president. On both cases he ruled with an absolute majority: in the city council (1990/95) and in parliament (2005/2010), and he is known to reject political debate in campaigning and has a strong authoritarian character.

His ticket companion, Raul Sendic, is no great speaker nor does he have Vazquez charisma. He has limited parliamentary experience, has held ministerial jobs and was head of Uruguay's oil refining and fuel distribution government monopoly, Ancap, which the ruling majority in parliament has impeded the opposition from investigating its finances and balance sheets.

Private consultants estimates indicate Ancap under Sendic which has also been involved in developing bio-fuels, planting sugar cane and searching for oil and gas, could have lost in the last five years well over 300 million dollars, which in Uruguayan terms is a significant figure.

So Mujica with strong leadership over his MPP grouping, ample public opinion support, and negotiation capacity could in effect, whether as part of government or the opposition, play a leading role in the next five years. And if by chance the Broad Front repeats and Vazquez is off overseas and likewise Sendic, Mujica as chair of the Senate, (the head Senator of the most voted list of the ruling party) could again, be it for a few hours, be president of Uruguay.