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Montevideo, September 23rd 2021 - 23:42 UTC

 

 

Uruguayan presidential run-off on 30 November; ruling coalition ruins pollsters forecasts

Monday, October 27th 2014 - 06:31 UTC
Full article 8 comments
Vazquez performed better than expected and should have a much smoother run off 30 November Vazquez performed better than expected and should have a much smoother run off 30 November
Lacalle Pou and the National party just managed to be above the 30/31% threshold Lacalle Pou and the National party just managed to be above the 30/31% threshold
Pedro Bordaberry and the Colorado party according to exit polls, was far below what had been anticipated Pedro Bordaberry and the Colorado party according to exit polls, was far below what had been anticipated

Uruguayan pollsters again seem to have missed their target regarding estimate results of Sunday's legislative and presidential elections: the ruling Broad Front coalition presidential candidate Tabare Vazquez took a strong lead in the exit polls, and although he will be forced to a run-off with runner up Luis Lacalle Pou as anticipated, the percentage numbers indicate he should be able to achieve a comfortable win at the end of November, contrary to what was forecasted.

 In effect according to the different pollsters, the Broad Front garnered between 46.4% and 47.4%, three points more than forecasted, while runner up National party and candidate Luis Lacalle Pou was below the 32%, and will have to accept between 30% and 31%. The third contender Pedro Bordaberry from the Colorado party experienced an even worse fate since his forecasted 17% to 19% plummeted in the range of 13%.

With these percentages, mathematically applied, (47,4% against the sum of 32% and 13%) former president Vazquez on 30 November would again repeat victory as he did ten years ago, which would rule out the neck-to-neck almost tie that had been anticipated by three different pollsters.

Furthermore if the Broad Front keeps edging up, as has been happening, once the ballots are counted and the stagnant tendency of the National party and depressed performance of the Colorado party confirmed, there still is a slight chance that the current ruling coalition could again enjoy an absolute majority in the Legislative as has happened in these ten years.

Without the need of going over the percentages, the three leading pollsters of the country contracted by each of the Montevideo private television channels, had agreed that with no doubt the Broad Front would lose its majority, and whatever government finally won it would have to negotiate with the opposition; likewise the run off in November, was too tight to call or guess.

According to pollster Cifra exit polls, the Broad Front collected 46.5% of ballots; the National party, 32%; the Colorado party, 13.2%; the Independent party, 3.1% and the Popular Unit, 1%.

Pollster Equipos released the following: Broad Front 47.4%; National party, 31.3%; Colorado party, 13.2%; Independent party, 3% and the Popular Unit, 1.1%, Finally Factum: ruling coalition, 46.4%; National party, 30.4%; Colorado party, 12.5% and Independent party, 3.4%.

With these results, Eduardo Botinelli from Factum estimated that the ruling coalition would obtain between 48 and 49 Lower house seats (out of 99); the National party, 31 or 32 and the Colorado party, 13 to 14.

Regarding the referendum on lowering the criminal responsibility age from 18 to 16 years, the proposal (YES) finally did not garner the 50% ballots plus one needed. Pollsters here were also divided as to the results, and the fact is that the NO vote finally went out to the streets to celebrates.

Categories: Politics, Latin America, Unasur.

Top Comments

Disclaimer & comment rules
  • ChrisR

    Exit polls are not a result, for all sorts of reasons the people questioned lie and the same is true of the polls themselves.

    Another truism concerns the skewing of the poll by the methods used by the lazy pollsters (happens in the UK also) when all they do are some on the ground interviews in shopping malls and highly trafficked areas in cities, coupled with phone polls.

    Two questions:
    1) even seen really poor people in the shopping centres of PdE and MVD?
    2) how many poor people have a landline to their shack?

    Clearly the handouts to the lazy bastards works: they vote for The Broad Fraud.

    The real poll is in November.

    Oct 27th, 2014 - 09:55 am 0
  • paulcedron

    christine
    remember: you can't vote, you can't opine.

    Oct 27th, 2014 - 05:35 pm 0
  • ChrisR

    @ 2 POLLY

    See the other topic for a reply.

    Oct 27th, 2014 - 06:54 pm 0
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