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The end of the BRICS

Wednesday, April 29th 2015 - 08:07 UTC
Full article 20 comments

By Gwynne Dyer - ”The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable”, said John Kenneth Galbraith, the wisest American economist of his generation. (“A paltry honor,” he would have murmured.) Read full article

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  • ChrisR

    2050?

    Complete waste of effort. If there is something to learn it is this: one week is a long time in politics and 10 years is a whole lifetime in reality.

    Given these idiots could not see the world financial crash due to their own incompetence why should anybody take ANY notice of this?

    BRICS are finished NOW. It's a joke and should be treated as such.

    Apr 29th, 2015 - 11:30 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Briton

    We always stated it was, a Brick to far.?

    Apr 29th, 2015 - 01:11 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • paulcedron

    of course nothing will change dramatically.
    except, maybe, britain, which has the biggest debt on earth, the worst healthcare system between the top 30 and that, without scotland, they will be a 3rd world country... again.
    no doubts scotland, the richest british nation, will be independent in 2050, and probably wales will follow its steps.

    so england will be out of the top 30 by 2050.

    argentina at #18 is not that bad

    Apr 29th, 2015 - 02:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • BOTINHO

    BRICS is an illusion.

    OH look we're the new BRICS everyone is talking about (were they really ? ) Now let's hold some meetings and set up BRICS ministerial posts, and look important. How about hosting a Copa, and perhaps the Olympics ! Opa !

    It was more of an observation than a reality. In 15 years, economies come and go. Re-investment in one's country should be the focus of any successful nation.

    Gross, exaggerated corruption, or self-enrichment ( as seen in my country with Petrobras ) spells doom for any BRICS member, resources or not.

    Stating later in defense “ Don't blame us, other nations are doing too ” tries to excuse theft. And that money stolen should have been used for infrastructure building and programs for the poor.

    Instead it went to off-shore personal accounts, expensive cars and condos, and rare art collections. Pathetic.

    Apr 29th, 2015 - 04:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Bisley

    Galbraith was wrong about nearly everything relating to economics, but he was surely right about the forecasting. The future economic growth (or shrinkage) of any country depends mainly on the political situation. If governments create conditions where business can flourish (sound money, low tax, minimal regulation, government enforcement of property rights, contracts, etc.), things will go well; the farther they stray from these things, the worse it gets.

    Apr 29th, 2015 - 04:22 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • RufusBaxter

    @paulcedron ,

    I know things are terribly slow in Argentina, and perhaps you only just received news through your local, decrepit telegraph wire, but Scotland chose to remain part of the UK in September and will remain in the UK for the foreseeable future.

    The British NHS has been ranked as the world's best overall healthcare system, even to my surprise. Just goes to show what we're capable of.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/uks-healthcare-ranked-the-best-out-of-11-western-countries-with-us-coming-last-9542833.html
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/uks-healthcare-ranked-the-best-out-of-11-western-countries-with-us-coming-last-9542833.html

    Argentina meanwhile is ranked an embarrassing 75th.

    Argentina is the only country in history that is on the cusp of being degraded from a first world to a second world country, you people have some serious and inherent problems and your crazed, paranoid and deluded leader spending so much effort on attempting to steal the Falkland Isles isn't helping your desperate situation. I don't blame her, the Falklands are a gleaming gem in the cold dark seas of the South Atlantic, but it belongs to the Falkland people, not you greedy Argentines.

    Brazil has stagnated, India is sleeping, South Africa is a joke and Russia is imploding. China is the only real engine of growth in the so called BRICS.

    Britain meanwhile, a beacon of hope in an uncertain Europe has been the fastest growing western economy and is destined to overtake Germany to become the largest in Europe, is the world's 4th largest exporter and is forever safeguarded by nuclear weapons and strong foreign relations, I could go on - let me know if you want me to further crush your delusions of British decline, Britain has been on the up and up since the 1980s.

    Your entire comment, filled with absurd claims such as 'Scotland is the richest British nation' just further highlights your lack of research. The UK wouldn't become a 3rd world nation without Scotland's 5m people you imbecile.

    Apr 29th, 2015 - 05:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Briton

    so england will be out of the top 30 by 2050.
    Prove it.

    Apr 29th, 2015 - 06:27 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Britworker

    @7
    Oh no, please don't make him prove it.

    Paul's world is like a Disney fairy tale with an evil overlord (UK) and the struggling peasant child (Argentina), struggling against unfairness and injustice but will prevail in the end and bring down the evil empire. He is skipping around his ice palace (villa miseria) right now, singing “let it go” into his hair brush.
    How sad that a grown man and even a country has based all it's hopes in fairy tales.

    Apr 29th, 2015 - 08:16 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Brasileiro

    BRICS does not depend on economic, political or social factors. BRICS is an alliance forged in the mutual interest in developing policies and state organizations that strengthen and give support to the harmonious development of our societies.

    http://tijolaco.com.br/blog/?p=26505

    I would also add two strategic objectives:

    1. Foundation and development of multilateral institutions that provide political and monetary independence from the West in financing the necessary infrastructure in the South.

    2. Economic, technological and military mutual aid.

    BRICS has no end.

    Apr 29th, 2015 - 10:30 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • darragh

    and how does BRICS do in the corruption stakes for 2014 :-

    Brazil - 69th
    Russia - 136th
    India - 85th
    China - 100th
    South Africa - 67th

    So certainly BRICS has no end.....no end of corruption

    and for your further edification:-

    Ireland - 17th
    UK - 14th

    www.transparency.org

    Apr 29th, 2015 - 10:46 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • juliano

    “The end of brics” this is the wet dream of the united states and little friends. this is because the brics threaten its economic domination in the world. and meanwhile England is begging at the door of the Chinese bank ... very funny ...

    ps: all governments are corrupt. few can be caught ... this is called Steal level ninja master ... look to Europe and you will learn ... hahahaha ...

    ps2:... even more pseudo-political and economic analysts ... hahahaha ...

    Apr 30th, 2015 - 12:17 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Skip

    Brasileiro keeps trotting out the propaganda on BRICS but never backs it up with concrete actions.

    “Economic, technological and military mutual aid”

    Where is it? I mean, honestly, where is the economic aid? Both Brazil and Russia are in recession. China is struggling with slower growth and a debt bomb. Who is helping who here?

    As for technological aid. Where? What technology has been transferred to Brazil by China or Russia. Give me an example.

    And finally military aid. I have yet to see that! India and China have border skirmishes all the time, so they aren't helping each other militarily. Russia's military has invaded a neighbour.... supposedly this is something that only the west does! Ooops! And Brazil's military is doing what with China and Russia and India and South Africa? Where are the war games? Where are the high level contacts?

    Where is your version of Five Eyes?
    Or your version of NATO?
    Or your version of ANZUS?
    Or the 642 year old Anglo-Portuguese Alliance?

    The BRICS took a western concept and then added a token African country (so as to represent every developing continent and then made a lot of talk.

    The BRICS have nothing in common other than they aren't developed. Russia is an autocracy, China is a dictatorship while everyone else is a flawed by functioning democracy.

    Apr 30th, 2015 - 01:34 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Brasileiro

    Technological aid: Brazil is transferring technology to China and Russia in the areas of oil extraction, agriculture, livestock and renewable energy.

    Military aid: Russia is transferring technology in the areas of cyber defense and air defense.

    Economic aid: China and Brazil has supported the Russian economy against Western sanctions. China has financially helped the development of the pre-salt fields because Petrobras has no more access to Western financial markets.

    These are just a few examples. There's hundreds.

    Apr 30th, 2015 - 11:30 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    Brazil, Russia and China are spiraling out of control. None of them will ever make it into a Developed country.
    None of them

    Apr 30th, 2015 - 11:32 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Briton

    True.

    Apr 30th, 2015 - 11:56 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Brasileiro

    “Where is your version of Five Eyes?
    Or your version of NATO?
    Or your version of ANZUS?
    Or the 642 year old Anglo-Portuguese Alliance?”

    I do not consider NATO a reliable alliance. The nationalism of the old world are not yet overcome.

    “ANZUS” is inserted within the “Five Eyes”. Therefore represents the same interests. The Anglo-Saxons (white, black, yellow and red) are one people in many countries. That's nice! I'm not against it. We do this with Portuguese-speaking countries.
    I am against using force of successful English-speaking countries (Five-Eyes) to achieve obscure objectives, spy, threaten, manipulate, sabotage ... wanting a kind of supremacy that has no more space in the world today.
    So I think the old Luso-British alliance is badly weakened with the acts of bad character practiced by English-speaking countries.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rM95GKgpLvM&index=71&list=LLmXPTu1f8AdGlizWNiASx2A

    Apr 30th, 2015 - 08:45 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Skip

    So everything Brazil is doing with BRICS countries it is also doing with western countries.

    Not such a special relationship after all.

    And if Brazil is helping out Russia so much, you should really dig deep into your morals and ask yourself why you country doesn't haven't the balls to stand up for its principles when a country invades a neighbour and illegally annexing part of its territory.

    Supporting Russia isn't a snub to the west, but a snub to the Ukrainians and a repudiation of your own moral standards. Meaning Brazil isn't any different or better than any western country.

    Apr 30th, 2015 - 09:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Brasileiro

    The problem of Ukraine did not start with Russia. If I'm not mistaken there was a legitimately elected president suffered a blow of the Nazi party that nation supported by the West.

    What Russia did and does it is to protect its people. I have not seen any Russian army acting out this principle.

    Honestly, the West is wrong in this matter!

    Apr 30th, 2015 - 09:38 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ChrisR

    @ 18 Brasileiro

    It's the one with the brain!

    Pity he / she cannot shake the PT brain implant.

    Look at the TV, if you have one that works.

    Apr 30th, 2015 - 10:16 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Skip

    Brasileiro

    I understand that it is difficult to comprehend the world when you are so brainwashed that you cannot critically think for yourself.

    If what Russia did was correct, then you have just given Portugal permission to invade Brazil when they feel the need and desire.

    There is a difference between an ethnicity and nationality. The Russians in Ukraine were still Ukrainian, just because they spoke Russian.

    Yes, there was a legitimately elected president of Ukraine. He was the one that abandoned his post and left the country. The one whose son became a BILLIONAIRE while he was in power. Stealing money from the poor.

    Now surely you don't condone stealing money from poor people now do you?

    Surely you have seen pictures of Viktor Yanukovych's luxurious mansion and the poverty in Ukraine. Why do you defend someone who stole so much money..... why are you morals so flexible.

    Anyway, Ukraine has since had an election where fascist parties gained SINGLE digit percentages in the vote. Ukraine has had a new president since 7th June 2014. NEARLY A YEAR. Elected with 54.7% of the population.

    Where is your support for democracy now..... seems you forget when it suits you.

    The fact that you so quickly dismiss what is happening in Ukraine means that you are no better than anyone in the west when you claim your moral superiority.

    Brasileiro you have just shown not only how stupid you are, but how you are no better than any of the people you criticise in the west.

    Welcome to reality.

    May 01st, 2015 - 02:33 am - Link - Report abuse 0

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