Asian stocks saw sharp falls on Friday as mounting concerns over China's slowing economy continued to affect global markets. It follows big falls in US and European markets on Thursday, with the Dow Jones dropping more than 2%. Read full article
Yeah no one is immune.
China's economy is sneezing and Australia's catching cold
The Australian share market plunged deep into the red today. It's on track for its worst month since the global financial crisis. China's surprise decision to de-value its currency last week has fuelled growing concerns about the economic health of Australia's largest trading partner.
Some analysts are warning China's woes have put it on course for an economic shock like the one experienced in parts of Asia during the late 1990s. But they're cautioning this one could be much, much bigger. .. http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2015/s4298104.htm
I'll never claim that Australia is recession-proof. No country is. Even China.
Recessions are good for a country. The nature of a market economy is that it builds up imbalances during growth and recessions allow these to be rectified and difficult reforms palatable to the population.
We need a recession to reform.
However we aren't in one and there is no prospect on the immediate horizon. And with the price of iron, coal and other exports hitting rock bottom, Australia is still managing to grow.
The article says that China's stock market fell 3%, South Korea 2%, Japan 1.8% and Australia only 1%. Not everything that happens in China is being 100% transmitted through the Australian economy.
China's inevitable economic decline will severely affect Australia but it isn't the only story here. This meme that Australia is only beholden to China for its prosperity is facile. Case in point. In January we exported A$6.5 billion to China. This is much lower than the record A$9.5 billion reached only a year earlier. And China has been trending lower for a year now. And even after 20 years of stagnation we still export roughly A$4 billion per month to Japan. Chinese still need to eat. They still need coal for electricity. Even during a recession. Australian is primed to provide that. Maybe they'll need less of these and even less iron ore; but trade which is already 50% below peak won't drop to zero.
Just as we survived Japan's boom then bust, we'll survive China's. China's economic model has reached its limit and with its demography falling off a cliff there is no repeat performance possible. Australia however isn't constrained by that. India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines will all go through a Japanese/Chinese style boom too and we're primed to benefit.
China's economy isn't sneezing, it has pneumonia and everyone is too scared to accept that reality.
I fondly remember all the trolls telling me that I was wrong about China will soon overtake the USA, blah blah blah.
I bet they feel foolish now
China will fail, they will go into revolution, they will split into regional fiefdoms.
The smart money got out long ago.
This is very very good for the USA.
Watch and see.
It is a comprehensive investigation as to how China CAN stop the polluting and come into the 21st century. It lasts 1 hour and 44 minutes and it's worth every second of anybody's time.
I do hope this young women is praised by the government, so far it looks very much like she will.
Oh, honoured Guru, please do tell us which economic system prevails in Argentina, that has been a wonderful success...
But you are right when you say ... so the last crisis and this one are meaningless to us.......for the last 60 years Argentina has been in one continual crisis, to the point that you don't know what's like to not be in crisis.....I don't think you'll ever know. But, that is your problem.
The stock market always over reacts to events. I've long thought it was way overpriced and due for a major correction. Maybe this is it. Maybe not.
This has more to do with the Fed than China.
I wish they'd just raise rates 1/4% and be done with it.
Our economy is going well. The GDP number may be light because of the Cheeeeeep oil but in the end that's a good thing.
All I see every where I travel are new buildings and retail.
Where I live I have another 1.5B in new construction going on for the next 3 yrs.
And that's within 5 blocks of my house.
Its a pain in the neck to walk around with all the blocked sidewalks all over the city from the new construction. I'm constantly crossing the street to get around it.
Then how can it be such an amazing system if it is ALWAYS overreacting?
Seems to me this pathetic system called capitalism only knows two modes of existence: ecstasy and despair. Buy, Build, and Bet like there is no tomorrow one day, Sell, Scream, and Shudder the next day.
I can just imagine me going around offering people a new car that goes to 210 kilometers when you press the gas pedal, and goes in full reverse instantaneously when pressing the brake.
Or offering a medical insurance that amputates your limbs if you catch a cold, or infects you with all kinds pathogens if you are healthy.
Or what about going to a restaurant, and having the choice of either an entire cooked cow, or one leaf of salad as the menu.
That is modern capitalism, exuberance or panic. No actually orderly, civilized, rational, thought out plan for steady growth, expansion, and judicious use of investments and resources.
Comments
Disclaimer & comment rulesDown down down she goes.
Aug 21st, 2015 - 11:16 am - Link - Report abuse 0Yeah no one is immune.
Aug 21st, 2015 - 11:44 am - Link - Report abuse 0China's economy is sneezing and Australia's catching cold
The Australian share market plunged deep into the red today. It's on track for its worst month since the global financial crisis. China's surprise decision to de-value its currency last week has fuelled growing concerns about the economic health of Australia's largest trading partner.
Some analysts are warning China's woes have put it on course for an economic shock like the one experienced in parts of Asia during the late 1990s. But they're cautioning this one could be much, much bigger. ..
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2015/s4298104.htm
Terence
Aug 21st, 2015 - 01:30 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I'll never claim that Australia is recession-proof. No country is. Even China.
Recessions are good for a country. The nature of a market economy is that it builds up imbalances during growth and recessions allow these to be rectified and difficult reforms palatable to the population.
We need a recession to reform.
However we aren't in one and there is no prospect on the immediate horizon. And with the price of iron, coal and other exports hitting rock bottom, Australia is still managing to grow.
The article says that China's stock market fell 3%, South Korea 2%, Japan 1.8% and Australia only 1%. Not everything that happens in China is being 100% transmitted through the Australian economy.
China's inevitable economic decline will severely affect Australia but it isn't the only story here. This meme that Australia is only beholden to China for its prosperity is facile. Case in point. In January we exported A$6.5 billion to China. This is much lower than the record A$9.5 billion reached only a year earlier. And China has been trending lower for a year now. And even after 20 years of stagnation we still export roughly A$4 billion per month to Japan. Chinese still need to eat. They still need coal for electricity. Even during a recession. Australian is primed to provide that. Maybe they'll need less of these and even less iron ore; but trade which is already 50% below peak won't drop to zero.
Just as we survived Japan's boom then bust, we'll survive China's. China's economic model has reached its limit and with its demography falling off a cliff there is no repeat performance possible. Australia however isn't constrained by that. India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines will all go through a Japanese/Chinese style boom too and we're primed to benefit.
China's economy isn't sneezing, it has pneumonia and everyone is too scared to accept that reality.
Brazil already has the flu.
Australia is just catching a cold.
I fondly remember all the trolls telling me that I was wrong about China will soon overtake the USA, blah blah blah.
Aug 21st, 2015 - 03:57 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I bet they feel foolish now
China will fail, they will go into revolution, they will split into regional fiefdoms.
The smart money got out long ago.
This is very very good for the USA.
Watch and see.
@3 Skip
Aug 21st, 2015 - 06:06 pm - Link - Report abuse 0good analysis.
Hahaha, here we go again. The best economic system ever in yet another spasmodic convulsion.
Aug 21st, 2015 - 07:19 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I think it wasn't even 7 years ago this happened.
Look at the US stock markets last few days... it's all starting again.
What a SHIT system capitalism is.
Argentina extricated itself from that long ago, so the last crisis and this one are meaningless to us.
And btw at least I never said the USA would be overtaken by anybody. No need to overtake when the USA is falling down towards you!
And speaking of revolution... Burn baby burn (going strong).
hahahah
Not everybody in China is bending over for the Government Monopolies and she IS making a difference.
Aug 21st, 2015 - 07:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0See Jai Ching's review:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6X2uwlQGQM&feature=youtu.be
It is a comprehensive investigation as to how China CAN stop the polluting and come into the 21st century. It lasts 1 hour and 44 minutes and it's worth every second of anybody's time.
I do hope this young women is praised by the government, so far it looks very much like she will.
Toby your so silly all your hopin and wishin will never come true.
Aug 21st, 2015 - 09:57 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Mine is tho..
@6 Trolley
Aug 21st, 2015 - 11:18 pm - Link - Report abuse 0What a SHIT system capitalism is.
Oh, honoured Guru, please do tell us which economic system prevails in Argentina, that has been a wonderful success...
But you are right when you say ... so the last crisis and this one are meaningless to us.......for the last 60 years Argentina has been in one continual crisis, to the point that you don't know what's like to not be in crisis.....I don't think you'll ever know. But, that is your problem.
The stock market goes down a little bit and Chicken Little comes out to the Internet cafe to spend his hard earned yuanitas.
Aug 22nd, 2015 - 02:52 am - Link - Report abuse 0Perhaps he should change his name to Chicken LitTrolL.
The stock market always over reacts to events. I've long thought it was way overpriced and due for a major correction. Maybe this is it. Maybe not.
Aug 22nd, 2015 - 02:35 pm - Link - Report abuse 0This has more to do with the Fed than China.
I wish they'd just raise rates 1/4% and be done with it.
Our economy is going well. The GDP number may be light because of the Cheeeeeep oil but in the end that's a good thing.
All I see every where I travel are new buildings and retail.
Where I live I have another 1.5B in new construction going on for the next 3 yrs.
And that's within 5 blocks of my house.
Its a pain in the neck to walk around with all the blocked sidewalks all over the city from the new construction. I'm constantly crossing the street to get around it.
Then how can it be such an amazing system if it is ALWAYS overreacting?
Aug 23rd, 2015 - 02:57 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Seems to me this pathetic system called capitalism only knows two modes of existence: ecstasy and despair. Buy, Build, and Bet like there is no tomorrow one day, Sell, Scream, and Shudder the next day.
I can just imagine me going around offering people a new car that goes to 210 kilometers when you press the gas pedal, and goes in full reverse instantaneously when pressing the brake.
Or offering a medical insurance that amputates your limbs if you catch a cold, or infects you with all kinds pathogens if you are healthy.
Or what about going to a restaurant, and having the choice of either an entire cooked cow, or one leaf of salad as the menu.
That is modern capitalism, exuberance or panic. No actually orderly, civilized, rational, thought out plan for steady growth, expansion, and judicious use of investments and resources.
SHIT system.
I rest my case.
12. Learning vocabulary certainly didn't teach you to think.
Aug 23rd, 2015 - 03:41 pm - Link - Report abuse 0What a very sad person you are...
@12 Trolley
Aug 23rd, 2015 - 11:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Do you really think you can make such stupid analogies and then 'rest your case' ? you lose your case.
But since you abhor capitalism, am still waiting to know which wonderful economic system prevails in Argieland .....should we try to copy it ?
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