MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
Brexit: What if?
By Gwynne Dyer - After months in which opinion polls showed a six to ten percentage points lead for the 'Remain' side in the referendum campaign on continued British membership of the European Union (EU), the numbers have suddenly shifted in favor of 'Leave'. Read full article
Comments
Disclaimer & comment rulesSo many predictions.
Jun 15th, 2016 - 01:41 pm - Link - Report abuse 0But they are just that.... predictions.
I assume this is the same Gwynne Dyer who wrote the book 'Climate Wars' which received much praise from Al Gore.
Jun 15th, 2016 - 02:59 pm - Link - Report abuse 0He claims to be an historian but 'Climate Wars' is not so much historical as hysterical and I mean both funny and demented. I've not read any of his other 'future history' books and I don't intend to - one was enough - now donated to charity shop in Tralee (which in retrospect was a bit unkind of me, after all someone might buy it).
Any one can make a prediction - I predict that Aliens will land on the Earth within 25 years - that's of course if they haven't already - perhaps we ought to ask Hepatia I'm sure he/she/it would know.
....they wonder why we want to leave
Jun 15th, 2016 - 03:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Just out of interest and don't read anything negative into this, I am just curious. How many people posting here wanting the U.K. to leave the European Union live full-time in the U.K.?
Jun 15th, 2016 - 06:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@4 ElaineB
Jun 15th, 2016 - 07:34 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I do. And I want to leave the EU because it is corrupt, undemocratic and a threat to freedom.
I used to support the EU, thought it was a good idea, but not anymore. They don't want democracy. They don't want to be held accountable for the actions or decisions they make. And quite frankly they are powerless when a bigger country wants to do something...for example when Germany just decide to allow 1 million illegal immigrants into Europe so they could roam from country to country with no security considerations at all, and no consultation with any other country.
As for the article above, this woman is deluded. Why would there be a second referendum in Scotland regarding independence? I mean if Scotland had voted to for independence would in then be acceptable a few years down the line to make them revote on it? It's nonsensical and undemocratic.
Just like the undemocratic way the EU forces referendum after referendum until the 'dumb' people finally vote the way the EU wants (please see the Republic of Ireland who had the Lisbon treaty forced down their throats).
And as for the UK's 'negotiating position' not being good...this woman is really deluded. The UK's negotiating position is in a very good position because (despite what the remain campaign are saying) the UK IMPORTS more GOODS from the EU than we export to them. However there is NOTHING that we buy from the EU that we couldn't get somewhere else.
So the EU has a choice. Negotiate in good faith and fairly or the UK will just go to Africa, South America, North America, India etc... and buy from them instead. It may initially cost more in shops, but it'll be the farmers across Europe that will suffer.
Why? Because the UK has a huge population considering it's size, and we buy stuff, we buy lots of stuff.
So let Europe cut off it's nose to spite its face. The UK will continue with normal jogging.
@5 Interesting points. Thanks. I agree there is some nonsense scaremongering going on.
Jun 15th, 2016 - 07:44 pm - Link - Report abuse 0So, 1 so far.
@6 ElaineB
Jun 15th, 2016 - 09:30 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I'm interested to know if you live in the UK full-time too.
It doesn't really make a difference if people do or not, as everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but being here in the UK I've noticed a big shift away from remain to leave.
And I think the catalyst for that has been the government has handled the remain campaign.
Instead of focussing on what benefits being members of Europe brings to the average UK citizen they've just tried to use scare tactics.
To most people this actually reads as there are NO benefits to being in Europe, because if it was so wonderful why aren't they trumpeting it?
And secondly using scare tactics against the British is usually bound to backfire. It annoys people, and then they stop trusting those (in this case the government) who are using those tactics.
Now some might say that the leave campaign has used scare tactics, and to a certain extent they have, but nowhere near to the amount that the remain campaign has.
And of course there is the fact that the government used TAXPAYERS money to try and sell remain, in violation of all common decency. Either they don't use taxpayers money or an equal amount of money is made available to the leave campaign as well. This act has lead a lot of people in the UK to question the morality of the remain campaign.
When my remain propaganda leaflet arrived at my house it went straight into the recycle bin. Many others I know did the same thing, even those in support of Europe because they felt that the remain campaign weren't being honest or fair, and that the leave campaign should've at least had the same opportunity.
@7 I am resident and pay tax in the U.K. My work is international but U.K. based.
Jun 15th, 2016 - 09:44 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I think everyone is entitled to their opinion and should be able to express it without insults or bullying. People living outside the U.K. but legally entitled to vote absolutely have the right IMO.
As I said, I was just curious.
@4 Elaine
Jun 15th, 2016 - 10:49 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I hold my hand up, I don't live in the UK but then I have never pretended I do but I do have family members (including 2 brothers and their families) who do live in the UK. My wife also has relatives in the UK. Mind you you would be hard pushed to find an Irish family that didn't.
Leprecon is correct. When we voted in a referendum to reject the Treaty of Lisbon the government got some concessions from the EU and then re-ran the referendum and ran a scare campaign similar to the one in the UK and unfortunately we panicked and reversed our vote. Shame on us.
In the past, for all it's faults (and no country is without them ) the UK has stood tall and saved Europe from itself (Napoleon, Kaiser Bill, Adolf to name but three) and I hope the UK will do so again.
You are correct to say that everyone is entitled to their opinion. Mine is I think clear from what I have written above but, and it's a big but, in reality it has nothing to do with me other than the effects it might have on family members.
kind regards.
@9 Ha! You don't have to hold your hands up it is not a sin. You misunderstand, I am just curious about the perception of people unable to actually vote but have an opinion. Nothing more than that but I am interested in the comments.
Jun 15th, 2016 - 10:57 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
Jun 15th, 2016 - 11:06 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I'm currently on the Moon...
...but you've got to believe me coz I said so...
TWIMC
Jun 16th, 2016 - 06:50 am - Link - Report abuse 0Article says...:
1) “Resignation of Prime Minister David Cameron”
2) “The Scottish National Party will call a second referendum on Scottish secession from the United Kingdom, and almost certainly win it.”
3) “The new Conservative leader and prime minister would probably be Boris Johnson, Britain's answer to Donald Trump.”
Ohhhhhhhhh.... so many wonderful posibilities for little Britain....
Vote FREEDOOM.... Pleeeease....
El Think
Currently at his summer residence on the Ligurian shore...
(You've got to believe me coz I say so...:-)
I also live in the UK full-time, and pay taxes, but I can add one other thing that no-one else has mentioned. I NEVER thought that being of a member of the EEC/EC/EU was a good idea. I remember that, in 1975, there was another example of Project Fear. I remember the leaflet that explained how we were in severe danger of the soviet tank armies pouring across Europe and then across the Channel. How we would be much safer as one of a group of countries. I wasn't that naive even then.
Jun 16th, 2016 - 08:53 am - Link - Report abuse 0But let's take a look at Dyer's predictions. He starts his attempt to undermine MY country by asserting that it will shortly become known as the ROUK. I wonder about this coming from a Canadian who doesn't even live in his own country. The UK head of state is HM the Queen. Before its annexation, Wales was a kingdom. So was Ireland. Why would the exit of the Scots, the latecomers in British history, mean such a change. It might become the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland. And, come 23 June, Scotland doesn't get a separate vote. Is the SNP going to claim the Scots total vote, even if the Remainders only get 51%? And it should not be forgotten that another Scots referendum, without authorisation from Westminster, would be illegal. Hardly a move likely to impress the EU.
Dyer assumes, as do so many others, that the UK HAS to have access to the European single market. Why would the UK choose to tie itself in any way to a group of 27 countries when there are 178 others to trade with? The United States alone has nearly as many consumers as the EU. In fact, the UK holds the whip hand. How many member states would deeply regret the loss of the UK market? Incidentally, no-one has mentioned the expulsion of EU nationals. But if the EU wanted to play dirty by expelling Brits, it could happen. Much as, if the EU chose to ignore the GATT, so could the UK.
Dyer's comments simply reveal how much the world, and some Britons, have forgotten.
Geeeeeeeeeee.....
Jun 16th, 2016 - 06:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Some seriously deranged Chauvinists in little britain!!
RIP Jo Cox...
Brexit: What if?
Jun 16th, 2016 - 07:46 pm - Link - Report abuse 0YIPPEE.
Remain What if?
yep What if, if one has no control then what if is irrelevant.
Still 23rd of June will sort it all out,
it will sort out the political lambs from the terrified that they hope to impose,
Still 2
the only thing stronger than fear, is hope,
as long as you have hope, then fear no more.
just my humble.
Remember...
Jun 16th, 2016 - 08:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0little britain first...
VOTE FREEDOOM...
VOTE FREEDOOM
Jun 16th, 2016 - 08:08 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Providing the Government and the EU lets us,
still
We have hope.
Oh do piss off, Think. Nobody is interested in you or your nonsense.
Jun 17th, 2016 - 08:01 am - Link - Report abuse 0Think, thunk, clunk, whirrr, bang, clatter.
Jun 17th, 2016 - 08:18 am - Link - Report abuse 0Think's brain trying to muddy the waters again.
Think, go back to sleep, we don't care where you are.
I luuuuuv Muddy Waters...
Jun 17th, 2016 - 09:46 am - Link - Report abuse 0https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YTBR_dnpn7A
Today in the papers more threats,
Jun 17th, 2016 - 06:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0France, the local mayor says he will hire ferries to ship the immigrants to Britain , if we go,
Italy said if we go, it will be permanent,
and Spain says it can if it chooses, close the border if we go,
with friends like these,
the sooner we go the better.
“...but nobody wants the old pre-EU Europe back.”
Jun 17th, 2016 - 10:44 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Errr, I do!
Specifically 1942-1944 those three years. Good years to be European.
The biggest problem I have with the EU is that it is fundimentally undemocratic. Take the Brussells to Strasbourg travelling circus which completely wastes in the region of 200 million Euros every year !
Jun 18th, 2016 - 07:30 pm - Link - Report abuse 075 % of MEP's agree that the circus should stop and Brussels be made the permanent HQ. However, to make this change would require a change to the Lisbon treaty which would entail national referendums. The EU does not like referendums (I don't know why because they usually ignore the results anyway) and so the farce and expense MUST continue.
When a political organisation like the EU project deliberately ignores its OWN MEP's and its own 500 million + strong population - something is very broken & very very wrong. When unelected faceless bureaucrats can overide the wishes of elected MP's /MEPs don't walk ........run for the exit !
........run for the exit !
Jun 18th, 2016 - 07:42 pm - Link - Report abuse 0excellent and I agree with you.
Except a geographical area; the EU Countries have nothing in common - particularly as far as the individual economic situations are concerned.
Jun 19th, 2016 - 11:28 am - Link - Report abuse 0Many are surviving only on the borrowings / handouts / bailouts besides being corrupt and security-weak.
Not too surprising if many brits are a bit wary of joining such a neighborhood!
Ah but you would be forgiven to think just how many brits think the EU is the greatest thing since sliced bread, judging by some of the insults the leavers get sometime.
Jun 19th, 2016 - 06:56 pm - Link - Report abuse 0we all have opinions,
no one knows what the future will be like, accept those in the know,
....”El Think
Jun 20th, 2016 - 10:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Currently at his summer residence on the Ligurian shore...
(You've got to believe me coz I say so...:-)”...
Naa, I had you down as a 'Big Apple' kinda guy at this time of year Think....;-)
Baroness Warsi now wants to remain in Europe. I think that the strategy for the remain campaign was to bring in the racist card 3 days before the referendum. She objects to the Nigel Farage poster with a snake like procession of migrants from North Africa as being racist as it depicts a lot of black people. Com'on are not African and sub saharan people black. I do not trust any politician of any party to tell the truth, lets face it all wish to join the gravy train once out of UK politics.
Jun 20th, 2016 - 11:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0please no. we need open uk to keep economy going. free movement of people and money very important to us all. no?
Jun 21st, 2016 - 12:58 am - Link - Report abuse 0(27)... :-)
Jun 21st, 2016 - 04:05 am - Link - Report abuse 0By the way, British folks...
Please don't listen to this Brummie comedian....
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iAgKHSNqxa8
Remember to vote FREEDOM on thursday!
Baroness Warsi has jumped ship for a 'racist' poster! Was she really an Brexit person in the first place, she could have been very convinced if all it took was one poster to change her mind. What about 'what is best for the country Baroness? That soon fell by the wayside, for a chance to get you back in the limelight.
Jun 21st, 2016 - 06:53 am - Link - Report abuse 0I know it is a 'binary' decision, but there are too many shenanigans being played out on both sides. All most people want are some facts not guesses and rhetoric, to help make a sensible choice.
@31
Jun 21st, 2016 - 08:08 am - Link - Report abuse 0Never trust a politician as they have only one agenda and that is to look after no 1.
@ 29 No. What use is a “growing economy” if your children can no longer afford to buy a house in the area they were born ? If you can't get a school place, if you can't get a Doctors appointment etc etc
Jun 21st, 2016 - 04:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Big business likes free movement of labour simply because it suppresses wages and therefore boosts profits and that is all.
Explain to me why, if migration is really so good for the economy, those experiencing most of it have never operated larger trade deficits or been in more national debt ???
@33
Jun 21st, 2016 - 10:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0If you want to see it as it is in the EU then Google Daniel Hannan MEP
Vote leave.
Jun 21st, 2016 - 10:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Vote Leave.
Jun 22nd, 2016 - 12:50 am - Link - Report abuse 0Vote for FREEDOOM.
Jun 22nd, 2016 - 04:29 am - Link - Report abuse 0@33
Jun 22nd, 2016 - 11:58 am - Link - Report abuse 0But it much easier to buy house. I have better money. Everything is so much better at home. My child have better house than I did!! Better than house in England!!
If England leave. It will be bad for everyone no? It is important to kep the flow of money not stop it. Stop it will hert us all I think.
?
Jun 22nd, 2016 - 12:35 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@39 Briton
Jun 22nd, 2016 - 12:46 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Fear not.
'Gavin Hansen' is just Think/voice/et al being his usual idiotic self
Agreed, thanks
Jun 22nd, 2016 - 12:55 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@ 38 Gavin - Good for you
Jun 22nd, 2016 - 01:05 pm - Link - Report abuse 0For some of us & our children the UK is home. Don't get me wrong , I do not equate the “EU Project” with my european neighbours. Two very different things. I sincerely hope that that close european cooperation can continue after we leave the EU, assuming that we do of course.
UK simply cannot afford to continue to allow 300,000 new people to immigrate every year. I am amazed that the vote will be close given the obvious problems that it is causing here in terms of wages, housing, school places, NHS and congestion. I am also amazed that my countrymen would countenance continuing to be dictated to by an unelected, unaccountable anti democratic elite of failed politicians determined to railroad 28 nations into a European Superstate against their wishes.
If that means taking some pain then so be it. Hopefully, it won't be so bad but at least the decisions will be our own and not Mr Junker's or Mrs Merkel's. As for the EU you will still be 27 countries & free to form your superstate if you so choose.
Better to be a good neighbour than a bad tenant !
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