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IMF lowers Euro Zone growth prospects because of Brexit and extended risk aversion

Monday, July 11th 2016 - 07:24 UTC
Full article 6 comments
The Euro zone is now  expected to grow by 1.6% this year and 1.4% in 2017. Before the referendum the IMF had predicted growth of 1.7% for both years. The Euro zone is now expected to grow by 1.6% this year and 1.4% in 2017. Before the referendum the IMF had predicted growth of 1.7% for both years.
IMF also revised down its 2018 growth forecast to 1.6% from 1.7% arguing growth prospects for the were “mediocre” due to high unemployment and debt. IMF also revised down its 2018 growth forecast to 1.6% from 1.7% arguing growth prospects for the were “mediocre” due to high unemployment and debt.
Mahmood Pradhan, deputy director of the IMF's European Department, said the outlook could worsen in a drawn-out negotiations scenario between the UK and EU Mahmood Pradhan, deputy director of the IMF's European Department, said the outlook could worsen in a drawn-out negotiations scenario between the UK and EU

The International Monetary Fund has cuts its economic growth forecasts for the Euro zone in the wake of the UK's vote to leave the European Union. The Euro zone is now expected to grow by 1.6% this year and 1.4% in 2017.

 Before the referendum the IMF had predicted growth of 1.7% for both years. IMF also revised down its 2018 growth forecast to 1.6% from 1.7% arguing medium-term growth prospects for the 19-member bloc were “mediocre” due to high unemployment and debt.

Mahmood Pradhan, deputy director of the IMF's European Department, said the outlook could worsen if drawn-out negotiations between the UK and the EU led to a continuation of recent trends in financial markets - where investors have shunned riskier assets.

“If that risk aversion is prolonged, we think the growth impact could be larger and at this point, it is very difficult to tell how long that period lasts,” he said in a conference call.

The revised 2017 figure was the IMF's “best case” scenario, assuming a deal was struck that allowed the UK to retain its access to the EU's single market, Pradhan said. However, if the UK decided not to maintain close ties with the EU and chose to rely on World Trade Organization rules, there could be “major disruptions,” he said.

Pradhan added it was “very, very early days to have any strong sense of confidence” about what the eventual relationship between the UK and EU would be. In the medium-term, challenges such as high unemployment and persistent structural weaknesses in the Euro area would continue to weigh on growth, the IMF said.

“As a result, growth five years ahead is expected to be about 1.5%, with headline inflation reaching only 1.7%,” the report said.

It also said that as the euro area was such a big player in world trade, any slowdown could have an impact on other economies, including emerging markets, but it expected this to be “limited”.

Top Comments

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  • Vestige

    The assumption that the eurozone will still be around in three years contradicts the wise individuals of this forum who so often have it collapsing tomorrow or the day after.
    IMF must have it wrong.

    Jul 11th, 2016 - 10:05 am 0
  • Conqueror

    @1. IMF usually gets it wrong. Didn't it say, a couple of years back, that Britain would go to a triple-dip recession? Didn't happen. The British economy kept improving. Argieland blames the IMF for all its problems. Argieland, as usual, has selective amnesia. Didn't have the courage and discipline to follow recommendations. Apart from attempted colonialism, what does argieland do best? It borrows and “forgets” or refuses to repay.

    Jul 11th, 2016 - 10:53 am 0
  • ChrisR

    The IMF is headed by a Frog facing criminal charges but Osborne claimed she was the best leader for this bunch of no-hopers.

    Always at the bottom of his game, Ossie.

    Jul 11th, 2016 - 11:24 am 0
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