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Record global productions of wheat, rice and corn will keep prices low

Monday, October 10th 2016 - 11:38 UTC
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Record global production forecasts for this year's wheat and rice harvests, along with rebounding maize output, are helping keep inventories ample and prices low. Record global production forecasts for this year's wheat and rice harvests, along with rebounding maize output, are helping keep inventories ample and prices low.

Global food markets will likely remain “generally well balanced” in the year ahead, as prices for most internationally-traded agricultural commodities are relatively low and stable, FAO said. The benign outlook, especially for staple grains, is poised to lower the world food import bill to a six-year low, according to the Food Outlook.

 Record global production forecasts for this year's wheat and rice harvests, along with rebounding maize output, are helping keep inventories ample and prices low. Worldwide cereal production in 2016 should rise 2 569 million tons, up 1.5% from the previous year and enough to further boost existing inventories.

The value of total food imports is expected to fall 11% in U.S. dollar terms in 2016 to 1.168 trillion, as lower bills for livestock products and cereal-based foodstuffs more than offset higher bills for fish, fruit and vegetables, oils and particularly sugar. However, the decline is expected to be slower for economically more vulnerable nations, many of which have depreciating local currencies.

FAO raised its forecast for global wheat production to 742.4 million tons, led by increases in India, the U.S. and the Russian Federation - which is poised to overtake the European Union as the grain's largest exporter. Total wheat utilization is projected to reach 730.5 million tons, including a big jump in use of lower-quality wheat for animal rations.

Global rice production is predicted to expand for the first time in three years, increasing 1.3% to an all-time high of 497.8 million tons, buoyed by abundant monsoon rains over Asia and sizable increases in Africa. Coarse grain output is seen rising 1.8% on the year, buoyed by record crops in the U.S., Argentina and India.

Cereal prices are drifting lower on the backs of the expected hefty supply. Wheat and maize futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have both dropped more than 16% since the start of the year, while quoted rice prices are at their lowest level since early 2008.

Production of cassava, a dietary mainstay in Africa where per capita consumption is above 100 kilograms annually, is also projected to grow 2.6% this year to 288 million tons. However, China's shift to drawing down its maize stockpile for domestic industry and feed has curbed international prices and trade flows for cassava.

Soybeans and other oil-crops could reach an all-time production high this year, thanks to record US yields, although demand is expected to grow even faster. In the livestock sector, dairy markets are also expected to return to general balance in 2016 after a long period of excess supply, but tightening milk availabilities in the EU triggered the largest monthly rise in dairy prices in many years.

Stagnant world meat output in 2016, twinned with rising international demand for pig-meat and poultry, especially from East Asian markets, continues to lend support to meat prices.

Global fish production, meanwhile, is forecast to expand by a below-trend 1.8% this year to 174 million tons, as aquaculture output is expected to expand by 5% and wild-caught fish output to decline by 0.9%, due in part to El Nino's impact on Pacific sardines, anchovetas and squid.

Top Comments

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  • golfcronie

    It had to happen as countries continue to strip forestry for foodstuffs.Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

    Oct 10th, 2016 - 03:34 pm +1
  • Briton

    All that food,

    perhaps they could spare a bit for the people of
    Haiti

    Oct 10th, 2016 - 07:49 pm +1
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