MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
Cristina meets Lula and Dilma in Brazil
Former Argentine President Cristina Fernandez Kirchner met with former Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva for an hour and a half at the Lula Institute in the São Paulo district of Ipiranga. Both political leaders discussed the situation of their countries and the region, according to a statement from the LI. Read full article
Comments
Disclaimer & comment rulesCristina Fernandez Kirchner may well return to sort out argentine problems,
Dec 10th, 2016 - 12:38 pm - Link - Report abuse 0so they say.
So who says?
Dec 10th, 2016 - 12:44 pm - Link - Report abuse +2What these three are planning to cook, may not be all that palatable!
Dec 10th, 2016 - 12:48 pm - Link - Report abuse -1Well she did say she would return,
Dec 10th, 2016 - 12:52 pm - Link - Report abuse 0but would she be welcome,
could she make a comeback,
or have we seen the last of CFK.
Looks like TMBOA has been stuffing herself in retirement by the size of her backside.
Dec 10th, 2016 - 05:38 pm - Link - Report abuse -4CFK is standing in front of a table and that blends into her dress. Should have gone to Specsavers, ChrisR.
Dec 10th, 2016 - 05:42 pm - Link - Report abuse +3What's up with the “alleged social leader Milagro Sala”? More bad translation?
Dec 10th, 2016 - 06:04 pm - Link - Report abuse +3And “international organizations...have been lobbied into believing Sala is a mere victim and called for her release,” seems more biased than usual. Wonder where this article came from?
@ EB
Dec 10th, 2016 - 06:17 pm - Link - Report abuse +1You are correct, well done!
Better opticians than Specsavers in Uruguay.
TWIMC
Dec 10th, 2016 - 06:29 pm - Link - Report abuse -5Nice picture, by the way...
A “Poetical Piropo” is due...:
Wish I was John Keats........ to dedicate a poem to those teats...
Double double toil and trouble, fire burn and cauldron bubble…
Dec 10th, 2016 - 07:49 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The chances Cristina may get to be regain full strength into Argentine politics are generously being provided by the disastrous management of Mauricio Macri as president.
Dec 10th, 2016 - 07:49 pm - Link - Report abuse -4According to a poll taken by the Centro de Estudios de Opinión Pública, over 70 per cent of the population do not believe Macri fulfilled his election promises.
As many as 60 per cent believe the government can't keep alleging it's all the fault of the previous Kirchnerist government, while 58 per cent have a pessimistic feeling about the country's situation.
Sorry, only Spanish source for that.
https://www.pagina12.com.ar/7959-la-imagen-de-macri-y-sus-promesas-incumplidas
Encontro de ladrões...
Dec 10th, 2016 - 07:59 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Looks like Argentina is in for an interesting future then.
Dec 10th, 2016 - 08:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Enrique
Dec 10th, 2016 - 09:13 pm - Link - Report abuse +3He hasn't fulfilled all his election promises after 11 months of being in Office.
What a joke you are.
It took over 6 mos. just to get most of the Evita K, La Campora noquis out of their non-productive, tax-payer funded, non-jobs.
Of course, the bigger question is, where would Argentina be now if Evita K and Kicilloff were still there, pulling Scioli's strings?
No doubt the Venezuelans could tell us.
@ Lightning
Dec 10th, 2016 - 09:51 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“What a joke you are.”
Him and 70% of the people in Argentina. And they know Macri's only had a year; I don't suppose they expect miracles, but didn't he promise things would improve in the second half?
And unless you are able to visit parallel universes, you can't know whether things would be better or worse if the K's were still in charge.
@ DT
Dec 10th, 2016 - 10:29 pm - Link - Report abuse -7Well said. “Lightning” is still repeating the mantra of the current government, re: “la pesada herencia,” by which Macri could not do much because he inherited a country in such a baad situation on December 2015.
Unfortunately for “Lightning” and those of similar speed, Macri had promised during his election campaign to let stand “everything that has been well done,” and improve what hasn't been done.
Instead, Argentina's economy has kept deteriorating since he took the government a year ago.
Let's dissect Lightning's posting beyond “what a joke you are,” to which you appropriately responded.
“He hasn't fulfilled all his election promises after 11 months of being in Office.”
True. He did not fulfill ALL his promises. Only those who benefited the large agrobusiness and the mining corporations by cancelling their export tariffs as soon as he got to government, killing a significant source of state income.
As for income taxes (he was going to kill them): unfulfilled. In fact, he was trying to expand it before the opposition got its act together and approved an alternative bill.
Poverty zero: Poverty increased.
No devaluation: Macri did it as soon as he took office. Improve things: Only for the very rich, financial speculators, banks. For the rest it's been downhill.
“...where would Argentina be now if Evita K and Kicilloff were still there?” Well: for sure Argentina would not be so much in debt as it is now, after the “generous” payment to the vultures and the subsequent borrowing spree (at high interest rates and to finance only operations) incurred by Macri and Co.
And to wrap it all, Ligthning gifts us with the inevitable mention of Venezuela--as if any comparison were possible.
DT
Dec 10th, 2016 - 10:34 pm - Link - Report abuse +3Stop being so wishy-washy.
It's more than an educated guess that Kicilloff and CFK and Timmerman would continue their disastrous policies if the K's stayed in power.
They would even claim they had a new mandate to continue.
We know where those policies were inevitably going, with no reserves and no credit from the West, companies shutting down, no money left for social
Programs and infrastructure- and an open door to China, their last respite, albeit at a high cost.
I love the moniker “”Evita K“ - she gave a little to the ”needy” La Campora, and impoverished a nation, and sabotaged a generation or two...
The world's professional Holocaust Deniers are rank amateurs compared to the likes of Enrique, Think and Voice.
Gwyneth Paltrow's, Sliding Doors,about parallel worlds, is old man Enrique's and Father Time Think's, favorite movie
Eye of newt and toe of frog, wool of bat and tongue of dog…
Dec 10th, 2016 - 10:43 pm - Link - Report abuse +3Reeking Stink and Voice of frog…
@ Lightning
Dec 10th, 2016 - 11:04 pm - Link - Report abuse +1Even if you think CFK was running the country badly, that doesn't mean Macri is running it well. There's more than one way to screw things up after all.
Macri cut tariffs to increase exports, but they haven't increased; he's done various things to encourage investment, but it hasn't come; and he paid off the vultures so Argentina could borrow again, and it has done, a dangerously large amount. Plus he made a mess of reducing the energy subsidies, as we all saw.
So I'm not too impressed with him so far, either.
@ EM
From two continents away, it certainly looks like there are comparisons between Argentina and Venezuela. Do you mind explaining what the difference is? The two governments were allies under CFK weren't they?
TWIMC...
Dec 11th, 2016 - 12:16 am - Link - Report abuse -6A short summary about the human rights worsening situation in Argentina one year into the Macri administration...:
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/224022/concerns-and-questions--the-record-on-human-rights
Mr. DemonTree...
From two continents away, it certainly looks like there is a good commercial and political understanding between the United Kingdom and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia... Do you mind explaining what the differences are...? The two governments were/are allies under Blair, Brown, Cameron & May weren't/aren't they?
@ Think
Dec 11th, 2016 - 12:34 am - Link - Report abuse +2Apart from the political system, the economic system, the legal system, respect for human rights and religious freedom, the customs and the culture, I'm sure those two countries are very similar. Yeah.
Britain is allied with SA for convenience, not because of any similarity or sympathy. Are you saying the same was true of Argentina and Venezuela? Is that why the other countries bent the rules to let it join Mercosur?
Mr. DemonTree...
Dec 11th, 2016 - 12:53 am - Link - Report abuse -7Apart from both Countries being Monarchies instaured by the will of God..., being Capitalistic to the core..., and having an official State Religion (bonnie Alba exceptuated)..., they are a wee different alright...
Argentina is and will continue to be allied with Venezuela for similarity...,sympathy and convenience... that why there is a Mercosur...
If you can read their lips, it's something like....
Dec 11th, 2016 - 01:53 am - Link - Report abuse +1Fillet of a fenny snake,
In the cauldron boil and bake;
Eye of newt and toe of frog,
Wool of bat and tongue of dog,
Adder's fork and blind-worm's sting,
Lizard's leg and owlet's wing,
For a charm of powerful trouble,
Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.
@ Think
Dec 11th, 2016 - 10:29 am - Link - Report abuse +5Actually there's only an established church in England, but you know perfectly well that the two countries are vastly different.
But VZ has just been suspended from Mercosur for not following the rules. Do you think this would have happened if CFK was still in charge?
Were CFK and Chavez ideological allies or not? Weren't both in favour of South American integration, anti-imperialism, and economic self-sufficiency? Didn't both draw their support from the lower classes, and have those groups like La Campora supporting them? And didn't they have some similar policies, such as nationalising certain companies, subsidies and price controls for some essential items, more social welfare, trade restrictions and currency controls?
@ DT
Dec 11th, 2016 - 11:14 am - Link - Report abuse +5I have to agree with Lightening regarding CFK's government. You were not around during the second term of CFK when she demonstrated a headless chicken approach to the economy. She was trying to run in six directions at once with no idea how to handle the meltdown cause by years of mismanagement. Having stolen all the available cash to prop up her vote-buying schemes she resorted to appointing Kicillof who told her what she wanted to hear but was equally useless. There is nothing to suggest she would have suddenly developed a realistic plan to pull the country back from the brink.
To judge Macri at this stage is grossly unfair. I am no particular fan - anyone who Dad-dances on the balcony of the Pink House is highly suspect - but he inherited a pariah country, numerous diplomatic fails, horrendous debts, virtually no reserves (CFK dipped into the countries reserves like it was her petty cash), massive underinvestment in infrastructure, failing schools, ….. the list is endless. And no accurate statistics to work with to tackle the problems. Imagine walking into a mess and finding it is actually ten time worse than you could have imagined and that is what he had to deal with.
Turning any economy around takes years, not months. To judge Macri's competence at this stage is impossible. Though I understand the impatience of the Argentine voters. They live in the now, like teenager, and never consider the future. Argentina is a nation of reckless, feckless teenage mentality. Understandable when they live in a constant bubble/burst economy but hopeless when trying to fix an economy.
For the meeting of the 'capos' of 'organized crime' in South America to be complete, they should have called IMorales and MadUrine....
Dec 11th, 2016 - 05:48 pm - Link - Report abuse +2It's really quite surprising that people think that Macri, and Temer, can turn the economy around in their respective countries, after 12 years of Kirchnerism in Argentina and 14 years of “lulopetismo” in Brazil.....it is undeniable proof that these people have absolutely no clue how an economy works, and worse, they don't want the economies to improve, because if/when they do, their idols won't have a leg to stand on.
@ EB
Dec 11th, 2016 - 06:49 pm - Link - Report abuse +3Hahahaha, I hadn't seen Macri dancing, and now I can't stop laughing. Your Bubble people made a Macri dance tutorial; it's on youtube and it's hilarious. And now I know why EM called him 'our dancing president'.
More seriously, it's true I wasn't following the news back when CFK was in charge, so I have nothing to compare to.
But no matter how inaccurate the statistics were before, everyone seems to agree that things are worse now than a year ago. You don't think it should have been possible to improve the economy without making it worse first?
And I think the people of any country would be pretty unimpressed in the circumstances, 'teenage mentality' or not. People who have just lost their jobs are usually more worried about their own future than their country's.
Besides, from what I heard, people in Argentina do plan for the future: by keeping their savings in dollars and preferably in some other country. No doubt this is also bad for the economy.
How much longer do you think Macri should get before we do judge him? And is it less than three years?
@ DT
Dec 11th, 2016 - 07:18 pm - Link - Report abuse +1I didn't know they made a guide to his dancing. Haha. I remember watching it at the time and thinking what are you doing. His wife looks so embarrassed.
Yes, the economy had to get worse before it could get better. A lot of people who are now out of work were not actually working, just draining money that wasn't there. There has to be a whole change of attitude in the long-term but I am not sure if that is possible in one generation.
I will wait at least another year before I see if his attempts to rescue Argentina get any traction. It will take longer than that for any real effect but Macri will have to turn in some noticeable results before he starts running for a second term.
@DT (reply to ”MI certifies Trump's win..)
Dec 11th, 2016 - 09:47 pm - Link - Report abuse +1BO’s grandmother said he was born in Kenya, he says Hawaii…whatever ; On the video, how does he expect to impress Muslims by (perhaps) lying ? his position is exactly what would enable him to conceal his religion, if he were trying to (perhaps he is, due to 9/11?), but despite the controversy, he never made a point of saying he wasn’t a Muslim; to me, that leaves plenty of room to doubt him, but I suppose people will believe what they will. I don’t think any politician is beyond lying. But you’re right, enough of BO.
Temer is in a unique position - he's is not concerned with his popularity and is doing what should have been, 30 years ago…and it wasn’t through lack of warning. He's been clear abt getting out of politics after his term is over. If for any reason, some other politician were in his shoes, they’d be more worried about their career than Brazil ; after he’s done his duty, let justice deal with him.
Regarding Renan Calheiros, can’t say he has a criminal record - at least not yet - but he does have a criminal history ; for the moment however, better with him than without …Temer needs to get the reforms passed;
It is not the first time that the SC rules politically, instead of following the Law. In '85, when president-elect Tancredo Neves died before being sworn in, Congress (not at all surprising) and the SC decided to let his VP (Sarney) be sworn in. Technically, a new election should have been called; when Dilma was impeached, she should also have lost her political rights for 8 years…but the Senate, backed by a (PT appointed) SC judge, decided to let her keep them. So no, I’m not surprised when the SC bows to the Senate…but in Renan’s case, I’m willing to overlook his crimes, for “a few more weeks”.
The 3 powers, Executive, Legislative and Judiciary, are meant to be independent and immune to outside interference from any of the other two, but being Brazil, one can't rely on it.
DT:
Dec 11th, 2016 - 09:52 pm - Link - Report abuse -5I prefer not to dwelve in the similarities between Venezuela and Argentina as I do not feel knowlegeable enough. There were ideological points in common between the Kirchners and Chavez, but the economies of both countries are different.
DT and Elaine:
I disagree with Elaine's statement that the economy “has to” get worse before it gets better.
I agree with DT's statement that, at least, Macri could've at least kept it stable.
The point is, the Kirchner model incorporates Keynesian points and it's based on stimulating the domestic economy by keeping wages ahead of inflation. The world economy's slowdown, especially that of Brazil did hurt the CFK period--as it hurts that of Macri as well.
Macri's economic model is diametrically opposed and based on “trickle down economics,” based on getting the rich richer with the promise that part of the wealth will drip down to the lower levels of society. One of his first acts of government killed tariffs on agrobusiness and mining exports. Devaluation through ending state controls was also rapidly implemented, which dealt a first blow on the population's buying power. Massive borrowing was another way for the government to finance its operations (not to build anything, as public works projects have been all halted).
Things came to a head a few days ago when the Cambiemos government attempted to pass a bill expanding income tax to one million more Argentines--after promising during the election campaign to totally eliminate the income tax. All opposition parties united to approve a different bill that hikes the income that is taxable instead, while providing other sources of financing the state from reinstating a tax on mining exports and gambling activities. So far Macri had been supported by enough opposition legislators and he could make law all his bills.
http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Blow-to-Austerity-Agenda-as-Argentine-Opposition-Pass-Tax-Law-20161208-0002.html
Argentina's long descent into increasingly worse economic conditions is exactly that: a long descent. And it has very little to do with the government of the last 12 months. It has to do with a number of other factors. One is that Argentine industrial markets depend upon Brazil. If Brazil is doing poorly (and of course it is) then Argentina will follow it down the drains. Brazil is Argentina's largest export market. And China isn't buying so much, either. I am quite certain that reekie doesn't understand that when your export markets evaporate or go into steep decline, that this country is in serious trouble.
Dec 11th, 2016 - 10:46 pm - Link - Report abuse +3But that's not the end of it. In recent years Argentina has failed to keep up with the world, instead deliberately turning into a pariah nation. Argentine technology has developed a penchant for remaining Third-World. Argentine competitiveness is abysmal, due in part to a heavy burden of bureaucracy, corruption and regulation. Argentine productivity is far from first-world standards. And the quality of the output of Industria Argentina is regarded as somewhere well below that of the poorest trinkets from the Peoples Republic of China. Argentina can't hope to attract much foreign investment when all the world knows just one fundamental historical feature about the country: it can't be trusted. Argentina remains one of the worst places in the world to start a business, being saddled with very high taxation, the continuing effects of world-class corruption, the worst labour and loaded compensation rates in the region, and a social environment, legislature, and judicial system that are frankly hostile to foreign businesses. These are not features that cropped up in the past few months, but rather long-standing pillars of the economy here.
So what does Argentina have to offer, under competitive prices and quality conditions, in order to get the dollars it needs to pay the bills? Precious little. Cows, corn, and beans.
Marti, you forgot horsemeat. Argentina is famous for horsemeat. France - cheese, Germany - sausage, Scotland - deep fried Mars Bar and Argentina - horsemeat.
Dec 11th, 2016 - 11:45 pm - Link - Report abuse +2http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/because-every-country-is-the-best-at-something/
Horsemeat has a bit of an informal and sometimes criminal industry flavour here in Argentina. Some of the exports are inspected and declared and some.....not. And because of the informal aspect (the exports outside of traceability and health inspection) the total exports have fallen off as in so many other markets where Argentina has become non-competitive. In this case what has reduced the competitive nature here is that foreign buyers are demanding more traceability and many of the Argentine suppliers are frankly suspect. Up until 2008 Argentina was the world's largest exporter of horsemeat. Then between 2009 and 2011 the declared export of horsemeat here was about 33,000 tonnes a year and by 2014 that had fallen off to about half of that. (In 2010 China produced about 170,000 tonnes). But there is now a lot of uncontrolled horsemeat sold domestically here (illegally) and that seemed to increase along with the super-high prices for beef during the CFK regime.
Dec 12th, 2016 - 01:20 am - Link - Report abuse +1Marti comes back with its fabricated notion of an Argentina being in “constant descent,” a concept that anyone can dispel in 10 minutes by reading Wikipedia -
Dec 12th, 2016 - 04:54 am - Link - Report abuse -3Economy of Argentina, the World Bank's Argentina Overview or any other summary, non-ideological analysis.
In reality, Argentina has grown the largest middle class in Latin America by leaps and bounds during periods of democratic, progressive governments. Military dictatorships and pitiful presidencies such as that of Menem or De la Rúa applied instead neoliberal economic recipes reverting to an agro-export role, borrowing massive amounts abroad, and opening the country wide to imports--every time deepening the country's dependency, hurting its middle class and sinking it into foreign payments crisis.
“...when your export markets evaporate...this country is in serious trouble,” Marti joyfully writes.
Well: Actually, Marti hits the nail on the head--only this vulnerability happened every time the country came back to its agro-export role, creating the conditions for financial speculation and borrowing massively abroad.
Of course, a country with a a weakened domestic sector and overly dependent on exports and foreign loans is going to be extremely vulnerable and any foreign crisis is felt several times amplified in Argentina (see the effects of Mexico's Tequila crisis in 1994 on Menem's economy).
Of course, world crisis are going to impact in some measure--however, the impacts on a dependent, agro-export-based Argentina are deep in comparison with the relatively tame effects of the 2008 U.S. housing bubble crash during the Kirchner administration.
It is particularly useful to keep these concepts in mind for those wanting to understand the upcoming events in Argentina in the coming few years, because the current government's neoliberal actions point in the direction of a catastrophic crisis that may dwarf the precedent ones.
In other words, reekie, the recession that started during the CFK regime continues, the country remains unable and unwilling to make the changes necessary to compete in a global economy, its foreign markets are evaporating, the fiscal deficit is growing by leaps and bounds, the overpriced and low quality crap manufactured within the country is roundly rejected by the argentos themselves, the inefficient sheltered workshops aren't going to be coddled with public monies much longer, no one on the outside who is serious is going to trust Argentina, the bottom is falling out of the horsemeat export market, and the country will remain totalmente jodido, with the option of becoming extremely totalmente jodido when the next populist wave comes into vogue.
Dec 12th, 2016 - 10:42 am - Link - Report abuse +3Enrique,
Dec 12th, 2016 - 01:45 pm - Link - Report abuse +2You seem to leen a lot on sources like Wikipedia an Pagina/12 which, in my humble opinion, simply don't cover everything. Can you imagine forming an opinion using only Indec and La Nacion?
True, I tend to lean mostly on what I gather from the sentiments in the local financial and business sectors. Of course that I scope out several other sources for facts and figures. But, believe me, nothing beats talking to humans when you try to find out what is brewing down below in the basement.
Economy is already a complicated subject. Then you add Argentina to the mix and you just can't forget about the phrase “it takes two to tango” ...
I will quote Marti up there “, the overpriced and low quality crap manufactured within the country is roundly rejected by the argentos themselves, ”
That single statement sums up the fallacy of what Peronism and later Kirchnerism have been trying to do.
I'm not saying we shouldn't support industries. All I'm saying is that we should support industries that make sense.
Just one example: Why insist on consumer electronics? What a joke. No need to wonder why I can get a macbook in Chile at 1/3 of the price I can get it here.
Mr Enrique,
Dec 12th, 2016 - 04:07 pm - Link - Report abuse +1With his “Keynsian Points” (please, which ones, explain them?) , his endorsement of futilely ramping up wages of the inquisition public sector jobs to 'stay ahead of inflation', and taxing he only viable exports Argentina has, shows his lack of understanding of economic principles.
So much for Wikidemia's Macro Economics 101.
Enrique, Kiciloff, and Evita K would tax and penalize “Agro-exports” while at the same time “nationalizing” successful foreign companies, or over-taxing and regulating them into being unprofitable.
No wonder Argentina is on a constant slide into the abyss.
What an economic genius!
@Reekie
Dec 12th, 2016 - 06:53 pm - Link - Report abuse +2Don't know why you insist on talking about Argentina's economy when it is obvious you haven't a clue how economies work - successfully ; If you stray off the path of sound economic principles, the outcome will be one and only one ...failure.
Your comment :
“I disagree with Elaine's statement that the economy “has to” get worse before it gets better.
I agree with DT's statement that, at least, Macri could've at least kept it stable.”.......
proves exactly that ...Elaine is right...have you ever heard of something known as 'kinetic energy' ?.....you don't stop a downward trend (in the economy) from one day to the other just because the government has changed....As to agreeing with DT's statement, you are giving in to wishful thinking...the possibility of keeping a 'deteriorating' economy stable, is a contradiction in itself - it takes time to neutralize the trend before you can grow again - not to mention the resistance to change, and the sabotage by those (in government, and out of it) who are unhappy because CFK was substituted by Macri.
I don't think you should “dwelve” (you mean “dwell”) in economics at all, it's not your 'forte'...
Another comment : “The point is, the Kirchner model incorporates Keynesian points” .. ....Keynesian points ? if you mean trying to spend your way out of recession, then I see where your going, but it doesn't work....emergency, or over-spending, only works to get over a transitory hump in an economy already doing OK.
Another comment of yours : ““...when your export markets evaporate...this country is in serious trouble,” Marti joyfully writes”.
There is nothing joyful about Marti's comment, it's just the plain facts.....seems you are the one who 'enjoys' misinterpreting what people say in order to back up your pessimism..
All you have to do is to look at the economies where populism and protectionism prevail, to see what not to do.
I honestly don't think CFK has a clue about economics. She was much more focused on doing what she had to do to stay in power. She robbed pension funds, stole companies, sold her soul to Chavez and did anything to have enough money to buy votes. She was like someone who maxed out one credit card and looked to get another, and another, and another, with no reasonable prospect of ever paying anything back. She used political theory to justify her actions. Just as when poverty was rising they decided to stop counting them. Not because they didn't exist but because it was embarrassing, so they decided it would stigmatise the poor to label them.
Dec 12th, 2016 - 07:18 pm - Link - Report abuse +1CFK was and is an activist. She is good at throwing stones at anyone in power and organising protests - Argentina's national sport. But like most activists they don't have any workable policies.
Sad but true,
Dec 12th, 2016 - 07:27 pm - Link - Report abuse +2Activists just ask, and ask, and ask for more and more benefits and regulations, but when asked about how to get funding for an initiative you will only hear the sound of silence.
Even though reekie despises the very idea of agricultural exports from Argentina, it's one of the few legitimate exports that actually brings in a reliable revenue stream. The remaining 30 percent export tax on soy beans, which reekie seems to have conveniently forgotten, goes a long way towards paying the bills here, and the ag exports have the effect of stimulating other commercial and industrial activity within the country (Toyota Hilux pickups that are assembled in Argentina and are ubiquitous in the ag sector, are seeing a significant increase in sales in the past few months as ag sales bring money into the country). Similar internal commercial production and sales stimuli result from other agricultural production for export crops that have less export tax burden. This of course is one of the many economic phenomena that have escaped reekie's grasp.
Dec 12th, 2016 - 08:34 pm - Link - Report abuse +2Why do you not want to start an enterprise in Argentina? Look at the labour costs, the loaded labour costs and not just the high per-hour rates. Then figure how much real productivity you are going to get out of a worker whose skill level is likely less than that of the fellow who did a rather poor job on the tattoos on your worker. Not only do you as an employer have to pay the monthly salary but also the two annual bonuses, and up to 30-some paid holidays each year plus a whole calendar of paid leave for things like attending a graduation. The general rate for employer tax is 23 percent and it goes up from there. Employee payroll tax contributions are 17 percent. Add the formal costs of the union/syndicate/gremio and the informal (bribery) costs. Your worker gets drunk after work, has an accident and can't work? You as employer pay his full salary for up to a year. The “business-friendly” government now requires employers to pay for workers' life insurance as well. First-world loaded labour costs, third-world productivity, fourth-rate efficiency. And you wonder why nobody wants to invest here?
Sooooo... although they totally disagree on the reasons, Marti and Enrique actually agree that Macri's policies are not going to fix the economy.
Dec 12th, 2016 - 08:44 pm - Link - Report abuse +3Is it really true that Macri promised to eliminate income tax? That seems kind of radical. How was he planning to raise money instead?
@ Marti
You say Argentina depends on Brazil, but isn't that also true of Uruguay? And Uruguay doesn't seem to be doing nearly as badly as Argentina right now. Why do you think that is?
Oh, and you ask who wants to invest in Argentina? Apparently you do, despite all the problems and high costs of labour. What do you think Macri should actually do to improve things?
@ Jack Bauer
Granted that you can't stop a downward trend in the economy overnight, but it does seem to have significantly steepened under Macri. Policies that reduce employment and pay are obviously dangerous when a country is already in recession and need to be handled carefully in case it digs the hole deeper.
We've seen a lot of austerity policies in Europe since 2008, and most countries' economies are still in a miserable state, so I'm not optimistic.
Oh, and Marti does rather seem to enjoy his dire prognostications. ;) He has said in the past that he regards Argentina's 'issues' as free entertainment.
@ Tarquin Fin
What industries do you think are viable in Argentina, if not consumer electronics?
Well--how can you have a rational discussion when you refuse to at least go spend a few minutes reading Argentina's economic history?
Dec 12th, 2016 - 09:29 pm - Link - Report abuse -3I did submit a couple sources and all you people did was to scoff--without bringing a single new element to the discussion but desperately clinging to your bias and prejudice--with the honorable exception of TF and DT.
Again, Argentina's old dichotomy is between remaining a dependent economy or developing its potential as a country with huge natural resources and a well-established, educated middle class.
The current government is doing its best to drag the country backwards, using the same recipes attempted by previous governments that all ended in failure. There is no light at the end of this tunnel. The deterioration we see now is just a prelude of what's to come, unless a 180-degree turn is made before it's too late.
Commentators such as Elaine may continue to recite the mantra of the most backward Argentine press about how bad Cristina was--as if this would justify the country's current economic downhill.
Have you ever noticed that the well-being of the working class under neoliberal governments is like a mirage, always farther as you run after it? Same with Argentina's current government: the improvement was going to be immediate, then it was to happen in the second semester, now it's the coming year, etc. etc.
Anyway: you can educate yourselves checking facts to help form your opinion, or either stay with your old backwards, prejudiced thinking--and let the events surprise you when the time comes.
DT: well said, enjoyed reading a balanced assessment and the questions asked.
Mr. DemonTree...
Dec 12th, 2016 - 09:40 pm - Link - Report abuse -4You ask...:
“Is it really true that Macri promised to eliminate income tax?”
I say...:
Judge for yourself...:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=q7htwkzI9k0
Sr. Massot...
Time to give up discussing with them Turnips..., just expose their worst lies... and concentrate on the sensible posters in here... Don't you Think...?
Huh. I thought Macri was supposed to be the sensible one?
Dec 13th, 2016 - 12:10 am - Link - Report abuse +2Mr DT,
Dec 13th, 2016 - 01:03 am - Link - Report abuse +2“Were CFK and Chavez ideological allies or not? Weren't both in favour of South American integration, anti-imperialism, and economic self-sufficiency? Didn't both draw their support from the lower classes, and have those groups like La Campora supporting them? And didn't they have some similar policies, such as nationalising certain companies, subsidies and price controls for some essential items, more social welfare, trade restrictions and currency controls?”
You have noticed that ThinkVoice has run away and failed to answer your charges that Venzla and Argentina closely share parallels of socialist Bolivarian ideology and economic mis-management, right?
And Mr Enrique, from the Kicilloff School of Macro Economics, refuses to “dwelve” into that discussion for fear that it will be obvious he has no clue of economic theory or anything else he preaches.
One word: protectionism.
Dec 13th, 2016 - 01:23 am - Link - Report abuse +2Let's hear about it now from another source, how Peronism cannibalises one (productive) sector of the economy in order to subsidise the (unproductive/non-competitive) others, and violates its own trade pacts in the process.
“ [Macri]....took office promising to lift the trade barriers that made Argentina one of the most closed economies in the world. Eleven months later, President Mauricio Macri is finding that unraveling more than a decade of protectionism is easier to do on the campaign trail than in reality. Even steps to remove the most extreme and arbitrary restrictions on imports, which the World Trade Organization had ruled illegal, met with opposition from industry and some backtracking by Macri. Now, the president is preparing to take the fight to a whole new level and reduce import tariffs of as much as 35 percent on electronic goods, including televisions, mobile phones and computers. Cosseted by years of protectionist policies during the presidencies of the Kirchners - Nestor and Cristina Fernandez - local business groups, labor unions and politicians are warning of job losses and economic disaster if local industry isn’t sheltered. ”
“....Tens of thousands of jobs depend on the home appliances, air conditioning units and mobile phones that are assembled in the far south, or the clothing, footwear and textiles manufactured across the country -- industries that survive because of heavy subsidies or protectionism.”
“....A Samsung 55-inch, curved, LED television in neighboring Chile will cost you $689 at the department store Falabella, while the same company sells the same product in Argentina for $2,300. ....Those differentials are a response to the great lengths to which Argentina’s previous government went to protect local industry. Companies had to request the right to import goods, explaining to the authorities why they couldn’t find local suppliers. It was that system which the WTO ruled was illegal.”
Oh dear oh dear Troy....
Dec 13th, 2016 - 01:45 am - Link - Report abuse -2It's Kanye that uses the Mr...tag
Mr DT and Mr Enrique...
Did you forget which account you were using......;-)))))))
Marti, whose Argentina business is doing so well he can delegate on others while he spends time posting on MP, is again taking pains to explain why Argentina is soooo “protectionist.”
Dec 13th, 2016 - 03:05 am - Link - Report abuse -3Argentines do remember what happened during previous governments that opened wide the country to imports--during the 1976-1983 civic-military dictatorship--it ended up in disaster. Incidentally, countries such as the U.S. are highly protectionist while preaching openess for others.
Troy Tempest:
“Were CFK and Chavez...in favour of South American integration, anti-imperialism, and economic self-sufficiency...etc. etc?”
Absolutely. South American integration, anti-imperialism and economic self-sufficienty and much of the rest you listed are indeed much needed. A united Latin America could make a big difference for its inhabitants. You saw the effect of 12 years of Kirchnerism and are now witnessing the actions of a totally different style of governance and you and others will be able to compare. We can talk again once Macri has spent enough time in government as to be judged by his own actions--as opposed to using the tired CFK's “heavy inheritance” to justify his failures.
@reekie “....now witnessing the actions of a totally different style of governance...”
Dec 13th, 2016 - 04:15 am - Link - Report abuse +3No, it's not a totally different style of governance. Very little has changed in the fundamental operation of all levels of government and very little has changed that affects our day to day lives and mostly frustrating attempts to get things done. There is a slightly different type of incompetence from a remote national government but it has very little impact on how things don't get done. IVA and other taxes are still stupidly high, inflation is still stupidly high, prices here keep getting worse as they have always done, for all practical purposes we still can't effectively import books, and bureaucracy is just as bad as last year and the year before that and the year before that. The power plant in Turbio that the Kirchners inaugurated three times didn't work then and it doesn't work now, either. Nor did any reasonable person expect things to change by much.
ML,
Dec 13th, 2016 - 04:57 am - Link - Report abuse +1Some reduction in willful blindness perhaps, and more economic competence, but a tangible difference is still years away, and only if given the chance.
@ML
Dec 13th, 2016 - 08:27 am - Link - Report abuse +2If you think protectionism has been so bad for Argentina, why on earth do you think it will be good for America? If import tariffs of 35% are bad, why aren't Trump's plans for 45% ones worse?
Also you never answered about Uruguay. Any idea what is different there that has made the recession far less severe?
Sr. Massot...
Dec 13th, 2016 - 09:14 am - Link - Report abuse -4Just one good word to you...: “Resilence” (Aguante)...
(Interpreted below by our Latinamerican Bob Dylan... enjoy...)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/03/calle-13-el-aguante_n_5084274.html
@DT I don't know where you got the idea that I promoted protectionism in Trump's country or anywhere else. I do find it laughable that reekie tries to deflect the observations of extreme neo-Stalinist protectionism in Argentina by suggesting that other countries might have some spots of protectionism on a much smaller scale. Regarding the Uruguay economy question, I don't have any reason to follow developments there but in general Uruguay is also in trouble and is affected by the same sort of economic problems as Argentina, including high inflation, soft external markets, unemployment, loss of domestic purchasing power and whatnot. Many of the same problems that Argentina is dealing with which reekie likes to blame on Macri, mirrored in Uruguay but without Macri. As we've noted before, it's a regional downturn. Things that differ: self-induced inflation in UY is not as bad as in its chronically excessive neighbour; although bureaucracy in Uruguay is high and the number of government employees is unfavourable, they can't hold a candle to Argentine excesses and inefficiencies. It might be too easy to say that UY is not now quite as bad economically as AR because the country is not recovering from the likes of Kirchnerism, but while that is true it begs discussion of the details.
Dec 13th, 2016 - 12:46 pm - Link - Report abuse +1Well, after listening to Reekie's brilliant analysis of Argentina's economy, it sounds like the solution is populism at home and protectionism (from) abroad.....despite what that did to the country after 8 years of CFK. Everyone should be employed by the State and receive a handsome salary, regardless of whether they are going to work, or not.
Dec 13th, 2016 - 12:56 pm - Link - Report abuse -1@Chimp
you mean “resilience”.......Reekie will feel so stimulated by your words of encouragement that he'll be popping up all the time like those (hot) air-filled dolls at carwashes...
@DT
Despite any of the arguments put forward here, some correct , some ludicrous (in my humble opinion) , just one question regarding the 2007/8 crisis in the US.....how long did it take for BO to just start showing signs of a recovery ? 3 months ? 1 year ? 6 years ?
and what happened before it started to improve ? it got worse.....
@ML
Dec 13th, 2016 - 01:39 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I got the impression you were defending Trump on here. Does that mean you don't agree with his policies? Or just not the protectionist ones?
Uruguay does appear to have some of the same problems as Argentina, but it's not actually in recession, it's just growing slowly. Inflation is at 8-9% which is much less than Argentina. So, it has the same problems, with its biggest neighbours and export markets being in recession, but it's not doing as badly. AFAIK it was also doing better before Macri took over, but since then Uruguay is doing a little worse, Argentina is doing much worse.
@JB
Looking at the quarterly GDP data; Q4 2008 had the worst contraction, in Jan 2009 Obama took over, the economy contracted less in Q1, only slightly in Q2, and started growing again in Q3 2009. So actually it started showing signs of recovery after 9 months, and didn't get worse at all after he was in charge.
Now, I daresay if he had fired enough people, and drastically cut benefits or increased taxes, he could have succeeded in deepening and prolonging the recession, since that is the usual effect of such measures.
@DT
Dec 13th, 2016 - 02:43 pm - Link - Report abuse +2Regarding your previous question:
Viable industries other that the traditional ones (commodity based) are those who require a high percentage of human skill. For instance any activity with high content of design and/or engineering will hit the spot. Examples are industrial automation, software, custom equipment design, installation and services.
@Enrique,
I have studied our economic history. There is one book that was an eye opener for me “La Industria Peronista” by Claudio Belini. This book describes how new industries diversified early in Argentina based on the concept of import substitution. This concept made a lot of sense in the post war years but if you ever read it you could read in between the lines how the environment differs so much from what we have today.
However, much of what was promoted in those times has more or less reached forward to today. There is an amazing set of skills hidden in places such as BA and Rosario ex industrial belts. But we can only take advantage of this if we look to create new industries. My point is that we cannot possibly compete in things like consumer electronics. We are at least 30 years behind and have no basic component industry. Even if we could manufacture components, we could never scale in time to make it competitive.
Just remember this word “yerta” (workshop)?. We count with such a level of inventiveness that is amazing. We just need to take this to a new level. And we have such a tool, medium and small companies are the new “yertas”.
Think/voice
Dec 13th, 2016 - 03:33 pm - Link - Report abuse +2“Sr. Massot,
Just one good word to you...: “Resilence””
Lol,
“Resilience”, in the absence of that other word, growth.
“Recalcitrance” and “recidivism” might fit in there as well.
Dec 13th, 2016 - 06:05 pm - Link - Report abuse +2MP commentators may try to rationalize, as does Marti, to deflect attention from the fact the political capital of their big neoliberal hero rapidly evaporates.
Dec 13th, 2016 - 07:41 pm - Link - Report abuse -1Argentines, however, are feeling the pinch and a large majority of them are calling Mauricio Macri's government as one of “the wealthy, for the wealthy.”
Seven out of 10 Argentines see the country's economic situation as negative, and 71 per cent out of 1,200 polled believe Macri did not fulfill his election promises.
Macri assumed the presidency one year ago promising zero poverty, a “rain of foreign investment,” drastic reduction of public expenses, low inflation and reinsertion in the foreign markets among other things. However, after laying off thousands of public employees, the Macri government has hired a larger number of employees--some with higher wages than the fired ones.
Think: Great video! I enjoyed it, thanks.
@TF
Dec 13th, 2016 - 07:44 pm - Link - Report abuse +1That makes some sense. Living costs in Argentina aren't low enough to compete in the 'dirt cheap manufacturing' sector, and the fact that supply chains have been set up in Asia already is exactly why Apple doesn't want to move manufacturing to the US (as well as the higher labour costs).
But has Macri done anything to encourage these areas or make it easier for them to grow?
Also maybe you can tell me how Macri was proposing to raise money if he abolished income tax? Or was he planning to cut spending to pay for it?
@EM and/or Think
From what I have seen of South American 'anti-imperialism', it means allying and trading with Russia and/or China instead of the US. Maybe this is pragmatic, but those coutries are also notably imperialist.
About economic self-sufficiency, can you name any countries that have achieved this? To me it seems the most self-sufficient countries are among the poorest, and the richer countries are very dependent on each other.
And what about other similarities between VZ and AR? AR had two exchange rates before Macri took over, VZ now has 3, and they are growing ever further apart. Import restrictions made some items difficult or impossible to get hold of in each country. The price controls on utilities in AR required increasingly expensive subsidies, and were starting to affect reliability due to lack of investment. While in VZ, many things are no longer produced at all due to the set price making production uneconomic.
People here like to say that Argentina was turning into Venezuela, and this seems to have an element of truth.
@ Kanye
I wouldn't laugh too hard. Which country is enjoying good growth these days?
IT'S NOT JUST NOSTALGY.
Dec 13th, 2016 - 08:25 pm - Link - Report abuse -1Only in a few times in my life i wanted to be wrong, one of them was last year, when Mauricio Macri won the ballotage, but unfortunately i wasn't. Anyway i think that perhaps the worst thing of Macri's administration isn't his economic policy, because actually he has right to be a conservative, although his measures are provoking hard damages on our society, maybe the worst of Macri's government, is the low democratic quality that we are having since one year ago. Not many leaders around the world have politic prisoners, not even Menem in the 90's had them, despite the damage his policies provoked on many social sectors of the country. Even if Milagro Sala was guilty of absolutely all the accusations against her, she must be free untill her trial, this is what all the international human rights organizations are saying, like the U. N., the A.S.O. and the H.R.I.C. However, it's well known that Macri's government doens't give a shit about the institutional respect of the country, beside, there are international pacts of human rights which were included in our constitution, which must be respected, that's why Milagro Sala's detention was arbitrary. Now i seriously wonder, what kind of moral authority we can have as a country at the moment to criticise the rejection of the U. K. to resume the negotiations with Argentina, for the sovereignty of the Malvinas islands, if now it's our country the one that isn't repecting a resolution of an institution from the U. N.?.
Although Macri and his followers don't accept it, not only in Venezuela there are politic prisoners.
On the other hand, when i remember that untill december 10th of 2015, despite all the problems that the former government couldn't solve, like inflation, insecurity, poverty, etc, we had a much better country than now, i don't feel just nostalgy, i'm also very worried, because since 1979 during the dictatorship, the H.R.I.C. didn't say that in Argentina there are politic prisoners.
Mr Arg
Dec 13th, 2016 - 09:03 pm - Link - Report abuse +1“Even if Milagro Sala was guilty of absolutely all the accusations against her, she must be free untill her trial,”
WHY “must” she be free?
If she is charged with a serious crime or crimes, she may be a flight risk, or some other consideration.
Perhaps there is a danger of sedition against the government or interfering with the investigation?
I'm sure that Evita K is worried that it will set a precedent - those charged with corruption, theft, complicity to intimidate or murder Prosecutors, etc. will be locked up.
Funny how Evita K has left the country to confer with those who are also being investigated for corruption- conspiracy perhaps???
@DT
Dec 13th, 2016 - 10:02 pm - Link - Report abuse +1I did take a look at the GNP quarterly data, and while things may have stopped getting worse as of Q3 2009, the economy didn't really take off until quite a bit later...according to the labour stats, about 8.5 million jobs were lost in 2008, 2009, and first two months of 2010….GNP retracted by 5 %, unemployment went from 4,7% end 2007, to 10% end 2009.
Although, technically speaking, the recession may have ended in Q3 of 2009, in 2010, economic recovery was weak, reflected by an erratic GNP and fluctuating unemployment rate. Things did not really show any consistent improvement until the year after, in 2011 ; the unemployment rate improved, but to only slightly under what it was when the recession started in December 2007.
Household net worth fell nearly 20% from a pre-recession peak in Q3 2007 (US$ 68 trillion by Q1 2009 (US$ 55 trillion), while real average household income fell from $56,000 in 2007, to $52,000 by 2012. The poverty rate increased from 2006 to 2010, reaching a peak of 15%, and staying there through 2012, before falling to 14.5%, in 2013...which represented 46.5 million people on welfare. So things did take some time before they got out of the woods...
Regarding your “Now, I daresay if he had fired enough people,.....” , my only comment is that reducing the costs of big government by firing a few thousand useless bureaucrats would not deepen the recession...but it would make them look for real jobs and be productive, instead of being parasites. By cutting benefits of the truly needy and/or increasing taxes, I agree, that yes would have a negative effect.
While I admit I was the one who brought up the 2007/8 US recession etc, one cannot really compare the US economy to Argentina's, or to Brazil's.....neither bear even the slightest similarity, or the resources to pull out of a recession quickly. Perhaps the US politicians are less worse than their South American counterparts....
Enrique
Dec 14th, 2016 - 12:17 am - Link - Report abuse +2Do you think zero poverty can be accomplished overnight? That is just nonsense. The pinch we are feeling now is not due to Macri's actions alone. In fact, I strongly feel that the pinch is extremely similar to the unbearable symptoms that a drug addict might undergo when trying to quit.
I did honestly expect more from him. His biggest fault to date has been a perceived certain lack of coherence. I do attribute this to the lack of a precise map of the obscure dungeons that make up our public administration.
You call him a neo-liberal. I think that is wrong. He actually has increased social help, even if that woud dazzle most of his neo-con supporters. Probably this action was merely just out of convenience in trying to avoid increasing social unrest. Anyway, numbers don't lie. It is all out there.
Axel
Your sound like a kid whose parents have left him in a shopping mall.
Demon Tree,
Macri has not yet taken any clear actions to promote high value added activities. For that to happen he would need to reform the tax system in its entirety. Just a long and winding road uphill. I believe that in order to innovate in this area, this govt should first be certain to have the beast under control. Looks promising. The lower house passed a bill contradicting what Macri wanted for the income tax and that initiative is crumbling down due to governors' pressure and a ridiculous mistake that “golden boy” Kicilof made in the text. It seems he knows nothing about economy after all. Chuckle chuckle Kirchnerite boys!
@JB
Dec 14th, 2016 - 01:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0So by some measures the recovery in the US took several years, but there were signs of improvement almost immediately. Whereas under Macri, AFAIK all indicators have got substantially worse since he took over, with no end in sight. Now I think some of the things he did needed to be done, but as I said to Lightning earlier there is more than one way to mismanage an economy. The fact that some things needed fixing does not mean he picked the right things at the right time.
Oh, and I agree the US economy is not really comparable to Argentina or Brazil, as it's much more resilient and there are more and better options available to help improve it. But economics works the same in all countries.
And I disagree that firing useless workers would not deepen the recession. It's surely true that having unproductive workers is bad for the economy in the long term, but in the short term the market doesn't care whether people have been fired for being gnocchis or because a factory has closed; the effects are the same. They won't find new jobs straight away during a recession, and they'll stop spending money thereby threatening the jobs of more productive workers.
@ TF
What has Macri done to increase social help?
And this tax bill... Macri promised to remove income tax during his campaign, and then backtracked? So the opposition made a bill to raise the floor so less people would have to pay anything? But Kicillof miscalculated how much this would cost to implement? Is that right?
Reforming the entire tax system sounds like quite a challenge though, and not very likely to happen.
@DT
Dec 14th, 2016 - 07:16 pm - Link - Report abuse +1When I mentioned 'perhaps the US politicians were less worse than their South American counterparts', I was referring to the fact that while most members of Congress got behind BO to help pull out of the recession, in Brazil, and Argentina, all the opposition does is to try to obstruct the government's every step, regardless of how important a law may be to the country's recovery. Here, the political situation is as serious as, or more so, than the economic one, with both sides pulling in opposite directions ; the opposition works towards 'the worse, the better', to try to avoid government policies from succeeding, and to make the PT's mismanagement even more evident.
By useless bureaucrats I refer to those employed by government, on any level, who receive a salary but don't really work or only turn up at the end of the month to get their paycheck ....we have hundreds of thousands of them, and I don't suppose Argentina is any different. In Brazil, there are two ways, besides being elected, to become a public servant....either you need to pass specific examinations, or you get “appointed” by a politician....obviously, those in the latter group should be closely scrutinized in order avoid politicians handing out jobs to their families and friends, or for political benefit ; during the PT administrations, the number of these so-called 'commissioned' jobs, in the Federal government alone, surpassed 110,000 employees who, through verbal understanding, funnnelled 10% of their salary back to the PT....not illegal (to donate part of your salary) but highly imoral. These employees were usually given high salaries in order to oversee PT interests in government and to make sure no one got in the way of their plans. So, sacking these people is an enormous money saver for the government, and for the taxpayer....
Private sector employees (in factories etc), by definition, are a totally different cup of tea.
@ JB
Dec 14th, 2016 - 11:19 pm - Link - Report abuse +1I'm pretty sure it's not true that most members of Congress got behind Obama. From what I have heard the Republicans used a record number of filibusters, in particular trying to block routine appointments (which is why the Democrats ended up changing the law), as well as bills they disagreed with. And after the Tea Partiers were elected it got even worse; since they are basically opposed to the entire concept of government, you can imagine how co-operative they were.
It sounds like Brazil is now suffering from the same problem, but Temer managed to get his amendment to limit spending passed didn't he? So apparently they are not able to block everything.
As for your useless bureaucrats, it sounds like another corruption scheme on a smaller scale. Do these people who don't actually do any work have real jobs as well? It seems there is nothing stopping them If they don't actually have to turn up to work.
While I agree that getting rid of any such non-workers is essential, that doesn't mean it won't have any side effects. The person who is selling them coffee, or driving a taxi they use, or renting them a house doesn't care where the money is coming from or if they are doing anything productive. If they suddenly stop spending the money it is bad for all those people, and thus bad for the economy in the short term.
In the long term they are likely to get real jobs eventually and therefore have a positive effect, but that won't happen immediately in a recession.
@DT
Dec 15th, 2016 - 04:04 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Until 2 years ago BO had democrat-majority Senate behind him, which was crucial to passing some of his 'Acts'.....the fact that the opposition does not agree with everything and from time-to-time tries to block what they don't agree with sounds pretty salutary to me....it's when they systematically try to block everything, as a matter of principle, just to obstruct government, is what I don't agree with.
Re Brazil, yes, Temer managed to approve the law limiting government spending - essential for recovery, yet the opposition (not all of it, just the radicals from the PT and PC do B, and 3 rebels in Temer's party) voted against it, as it was just one more nail in their coffin.
These useless bureaucrats exist in every level of government, Federal, State and Municipal...mostly, but not only, in positions where the PT dominated. Not saying this practice was invented by the PT, but it was 'perfected' by them, due to the unique 'condition' that those taken on, contribute 10% of their salary to the Party....a great incentive to 'take on' useless bureacrats....these contributions, from those in the Federal govt alone, represented a yearly income for the PT of R$ 1,4 billion....in other words, money stolen from the taxpayer.
And answering your question YES, many have other jobs, only making sporadic visits to their official workplace to keep up appearances...everyone knows who they are, but they keep quiet for fear of retaliation.
The social cost to keep these parasites in clover far surpasses any negative effects of their being fired. The millions saved could easily revert to the truly needy instead of making a few people rich at the cost of many. In a way, this practice is just part of the overall mindset (populism, mismanagement and corruption) that lead to the recession, so by firing them, or better, not taking them on at all, cannot be considered bad by any standard.
@JB
Dec 16th, 2016 - 12:52 am - Link - Report abuse +1Yes, Obama had a democrat majority senate, that is why there were so many filibusters; it's what the minority party can do to try and block laws etc from passing. And the numbers really do suggest they were being unreasonable: there were 68 total nominations blocked from 1949 up to Obama taking office, vs 79 blocked during Obama's term. That sounds pretty obstructive to me.
Meanwhile, apparently Temer does have enough support for now to pass laws, despite the PT's obstruction. It sounds like the corruption investigations are getting closer to him though, and everyone is involved.
I think if the non-working employees have other jobs then there will be fewer bad effects from firing them, so that is positive for Brazil. But in Argentina it is evident from the data that Macri's measures have worsened the economy in the short term. Whether that is from firing 'workers' or cutting subsidies or the other changes who knows? And we'll just have to wait and see whether things will improve again.
Some commentators in this forum have taken the allegation that Argentine public workers let go by the Macri administration were but useless “ñoquis.”
Dec 16th, 2016 - 01:48 am - Link - Report abuse -1Says who?
Why, the officialist media - Clarín, TN, La Nación, who often are echoed by similar international media.
Newsflash to you. Check serious sources and you will learn that more employees have been hired now than the number of those let go--many with higher wages than their predecessors.
Many dismissed workers had their Facebook pages inspected, apparently to detect Kirchnerist allegiances.
It appears the alleged house cleaning was just making room for Cambiemos loyals.
@DT
Dec 16th, 2016 - 06:30 pm - Link - Report abuse +2“...68 total nominations blocked from 1949 up to Obama taking office, vs 79 blocked during Obama's term...” Sounds reasonable. Does your source mention how many times the Republican's did NOT obstruct BO ? anyway, what I was referring to were not nominations, re which, I don't think the Republicans were blocking just for the sake of disrupting govt, but rather, I imagine, because they had legitimate reasons to do so...perhaps too liberal, too much 'flower power' for the Republican's liking ? Anyway, discussing this is like discussing the sex of the angels...
Today, Lula has been charged for the 5th time...3 accusations already accepted by Judge Moro in Curitiba, refer to (1) passive corruption, regarding : the “triplex” flat in Guarujá, the country home in Atibaia’, 5 years free warehousing for the furniture, equipment, and household stocks he stole from the ‘Palacio do Planalto’ when he left end 2010 (cost R$ 1,5 million); (2) influence trafficking in Angola, on behalf of Odebrecht, out of which his nephew got R$ 20 million for doing literally nothing ; (3) the receipt of R$ 23 million in bribes, 8 of which in cash, as recorded on spreadsheets found in Odebrecht’s corruption, or ‘bribe’ department, and confirmed a few days ago by Odebrecht’s CEO in his plea-bargain ; before the Judiciary’s recess next week, he should be accused of taking bribes to influence Executive Orders to favour certain companies, as well as in the purchase of the Saab jet fighters...and it’s just come out, the flat he admits he owns in SBCampo, was paid for by Odebrecht . The accusation accepted by the Supreme Court, refers to obstruction of justice, when he asked Delcidio do Amaral (ex-PT leader in the Senate) to buy Nestor Cervero’s silence regarding the PB scandal.
Regarding the bureaucrats irregularly employed, all I have to say is I don't agree with my taxes going to support them, or corruption, no matter the consequence of them being sacked.
@EM
Dec 16th, 2016 - 11:26 pm - Link - Report abuse +3Do you have a link to these sources that say Macri has hired more workers than he's fired?
@JB
No, it didn't list that. But I found an article saying Obama has had 198 nominations confirmed, compared to 345 for Bush II and 268 for Clinton. It also says there is an actual crisis in the courts due to the lack of vacancies being filled, with more cases getting dismissed and fewer people going to jail.
I'm not going to go through all Obama's selections to see what the Republicans were objecting to, though I seriously doubt it was 'flower power'. However, I find it hard to believe he picked more people who were 'too liberal' than all the previous Democratic presidents put together.
I suppose it isn't actually possible for Lula to run for office if he is in jail? It does seem they are actually going to have trouble finding anyone who hasn't been charged with corruption to stand in the next elections!
And about the non-working workers, I agree; I wouldn't want my taxes going to them either. I only think it is better to understand what the effects of sacking them will be, that way you can plan to mitigate them if necessary.
Mr.DemonTree...
Dec 16th, 2016 - 11:54 pm - Link - Report abuse -1Just in case Sr. MASSOT isalready gone “Christmas”...
Hereby the official figures of the Argentinean Ministry of Employment &Work..., published a month ago by the most recalcitrant right winged Argentinean newspaper that backs the Macri administration 110%...:
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1960252-el-empleo-publico-crecio-y-alcanzo-el-nivel-que-dejo-el-kirchnerismo
Sr. MASSOT is a honest guy... Not like them Anglo Turnips you like to listen to...(and never ask for any links)
@ Think
Dec 17th, 2016 - 05:15 pm - Link - Report abuse +1Thanks. I did try googling but all I found was a lot of articles from earlier in the year about Macri firing workers.
And that means none of the increase in unemployment under Macri is due to eliminating ñoquis. In fact it must all be due to job losses in the private sector, which makes the numbers seem even worse.
Why do you think Macri has failed to reduce public sector employment? Has he been hiring his own ñoquis to replace those loyal to CFK, or were all the workers actually needed in the first place?
@DT
Dec 17th, 2016 - 08:31 pm - Link - Report abuse +2By the tone of the article, am I right in presuming that the number of nominations you refer to, are of court judges ?
And by the article's claim that “there is an actual crisis in the courts due to the lack of vacancies being filled, with more cases getting dismissed and fewer people going to jail,” do you think it's implying that BO appoints judges on ALL levels, and that the Republicans (in Congress) are blocking his nominations ? thus leading to cases being dismissed ? I'm asking because, if not mistaken, the President appoints only SC judges ...
My question on how many nominations had not been blocked, was rhetorical...did not expect you to take on such an ungrateful task.
Regarding the possibility of BO trying to appoint people who are more liberal than those appointed by previous democrat presidents, I was suggesting that today, as versus the past, liberalism is on the rise - just comparing the impression I get from Bill Clinton's presidency (1993-2001), and BO's - over the last 15 years, the liberal trend has grown...prompting choices that are more liberal...while the conservatives remain conservative.
If Lula is convicted - and everything points to that he will be - he cannot run for president or any other elective office, or even hold a public job....the so-called “Lei da ficha-limpa” (the 'clean-slate' law) determines that any politician with a criminal record, i.e., that has been convicted, loses his political rights for 8 years after the conviction, and I presume that covers even a longer period if the crook is still in prison....the news planted on the internet and on PT blogs, about his probable candidacy in 2018, if not wishful thinking by the left-wing radicals, is more 'fake news', trying to confuse public opinion and make life difficult for Temer...
The effect of sacking the parasites would be moralizing and money-saving. They are in the thousands, while unemployed 'real' workers are in the millions.
@Think:
Dec 18th, 2016 - 01:13 am - Link - Report abuse -2Thanks for the link to La Nacion. Additionally, the whole “ñoquis” issue is an uproven allegation of the government used to let go employees it suspected of Kirchnerist allegiances. For some MP commentators to take such allegations as a proven fact is as much a show of bias and prejudice as well as credulity.
@reekie
Dec 18th, 2016 - 05:27 pm - Link - Report abuse +3Here's a good example for ya, pibe. Actually it's even worse than a mere ñoqui situation.
The Administración Federal de Investigaciones, the Argentine KGB, was filled with Kirchneristas before the change of government, and they were clumsy enough to leak their names. They essentially wrecked the agency - stole files and computers and so on. As the article notes, those that CFK had installed in that agency had no professional training or experience in the work required. The new government came aboard with no real reliable internal intelligence agency, and an enormous amount of past intel material on crimes and investigations in the hands of the Kirchneristas. Multiply that experience by the number of federal and provincial agencies controlled by Kirchnerismo.
http://www.clarin.com/politica/Gobierno-Agencia_Federal_de_Inteligencia-La_Campora-despidos-Estado_0_1513648682.html
Related media notes
'Echaron a casi 600 “espías” de la ex SIDE: eran pibes de La Cámpora ' --“Las autoridades de la Agencia Federal de Investigaciones descubrió contratos a militantes que figuraban como agentes de inteligencia. Aseguran que faltan aparatos informáticos y tecnológicos. ”
Article: ' “Limpieza” de ñoquis en la exSIDE: echan a 240 espías camporistas '
Under CFK, the agency even leaked a copy of the list of 138 new spies, which made it easier to identify the unqualified camporistas that had been added before the end of the CFK government. Article: “Estos son los 138 espías K que ingresaron a la exSIDE ”
@JB
Dec 18th, 2016 - 07:31 pm - Link - Report abuse +3Yes, the nominations are of court judges. I guess the SC judges are the only famous ones, but according to this site http://litigation.findlaw.com/legal-system/how-are-judges-selected.html judges for one of the two types of Federal courts are appointed by the President:
“Article III courts are general trial courts and can hear any kind of federal case. These include the federal trial courts, appellate courts, and the Supreme Court. The judges for these courts are nominated by the President and confirmed by Congress. Once in office, the judges can remain in their positions for life.”
As for the idea that liberalism is on the rise, I have seen liberal Americans complaining that it is just the opposite. My opinion is that two different things are going on: one, America is becoming more socially liberal in general (so things like gay marriage, legalising marijuana are considered more acceptable), but more fiscally conservative (eg reducing the power of unions, the minimum wage which has fallen wrt inflation, lowering taxes for the rich and eliminating benefits for the poor). And two, the liberals in America have become more liberal, and the conservatives more conservative, to the point where now no compromise is considered acceptable by either side.
But it's hard for me to judge, because my impression is (and surveys agree), that Americans are on average considerably more conservative than British people in almost every way. Many of the US Democrats would fit right in with our Conservative party.
About Lula, was this clean slate law the one that was ignored in Rousseff's case? Or is being impeached different to being convicted of a crime?
I do wonder who will be left to stand in 2018 though, if the investigations continue. I suppose if Lula is not convicted of anything by then, then he will stand? I find it strange that he couldn't stand in the last election, but can in the next one. What is the point of that law?
@DT
Dec 19th, 2016 - 12:05 am - Link - Report abuse +3“About Lula, was this clean slate law the one that was ignored in Rousseff's case? Or is being impeached different to being convicted of a crime?”
No, the procedures for a president's impeachment are contained in the Constitution, and Dilma was favoured by a disgusting, illegal manouevre perpetrated by Renan Calheiros (president of the Senate) and the PT appointed SC judge, Lewandowski.
The Law that will seal Lula's fate is an electoral law, and once convicted, he cannot hold any public job, elective or otherwise....for 8 years. The proof against Lula is now supported by documents, and confirmed by more than one whistle-blower, from his closest aide Delcidio do Amaral (ex-PT senator who Lula used to try to silence Nestor Cerveró), to Marcelo Odebrecht (ex-CEO of Odebrecht and one of Lula's closest friends and allies in the corruption schemes...)
For Lula to get off, it would mean that the Justice system has simply ceased to exist, and then I would expect chaos to set in....and perhaps military intervention. Hope it doesn't get that far, but if Lula is not taken down - not for political reasons - but for being the biggest crook Brazil has ever known, the future does not look good.
Lula could have run for President in 2014....he just preferred to push Dilma into another term while he manipulated her behind the scenes.
If the Lava Jato is not obstructed, and the SC do their duty, half of Congress is going down.....but I think that after Lula is convicted, Congress and the Judiciary will make some dirty deal to let most of them off the hook, with just a rap on the knuckles (and a few fines...).
@ Martillazo
Dec 19th, 2016 - 05:59 pm - Link - Report abuse -3Very impressive--Marti is now quoting Clarin as proof that “Camporists” were actually employed as ñoquis!!
Come on now, Marti. Clarín is a travesti of a newspaper, with an agenda and one agenda only: to keep the public focused on how bad the CFK government was. So bad in fact, one year later, all Argentine economic indicators remain in the red--even those that were in the black a year ago.
And the Macri government is powerless to stop the downhill slide--indeed, he keeps blaming the “pesada herencia” (the heavy inheritance) for all the country's current misfortunes.
Marti: you are really trying hard to hide the sun with your hand.
Could work here in MP--but it's difficult to keep telling the Argentine citizens that their increasing day to day difficulties are still the fault of the previous government. Something has to give.
@DT
Dec 19th, 2016 - 09:33 pm - Link - Report abuse +3Further to my above post, it is virtually impossible that Lula will be a candidate in 2018....and not even because he 'might' be convicted', and end up with a dirty record, or that he 'might' be in prison, but because, according a decision taken by the SC two weeks ago - to address the controversy that the current head of the Senate, Renan Calheiros, who has now been formally charged with corruption and embezzlement, might remain in the line of presidential succession - a defendant cannot be in the line of succession.. ....which to all effects rules out that person actually running for president....
@JB
Dec 19th, 2016 - 10:40 pm - Link - Report abuse +3So does that mean Rousseff could run for President again in the future? But I can't imagine she would. Is being allowed to run for office really that useful to her?
I just looked it up and apparently Lula's first trial is due in Jan or Feb and there are four more coming(!) So we should know pretty soon. It's really amazing they all managed to get away with it for so long.
These laws on terms for presidents make no sense to me. I can understand the US system where they get two terms and that is it, but people were saying the Kirchners intended to alternate presidencies to get around the law, and that Lula will stand again in 2018 if he's not convicted. What is the point of making them sit out for 4 years - generally putting some protegee in charge for that time - and then letting them stand again?
Also it seems that whether they do a deal with Congress or not, the problem won't really be solved. It wasn't just a few bad apples, they were all in on it, so something about the system or the culture caused the corruption to flourish. And it doesn't look like anyone is trying to address that.
Oh, and that decision about defendants not being able to stand sounds like it could cause problems in the future. If the government can appoint sympathetic judges, all they would need to do is charge the opposition with something plausible, and they would be unable to stand. No proof of wrong doing required.
@EM
Why do you think Clarín hates CFK so much? And are you saying they just make stuff up to make CFK look bad?
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