Consumer prices in greater Buenos Aires rose 1.3% in January over the previous month, Argentina's official Indec statistics agency announced, far below market expectations and in line with the central bank's annual target. January's reading was slightly above 1.2% inflation in December.
The central bank is targeting inflation between 12% and 17% for 2017. It has kept interest rates steady for the past 10 weeks, noting that consumer prices had shown mixed signals in January.
Private economists see 2017 inflation somewhat higher, at above 20%, and say 2016 inflation totaled around 40%.
Argentina does not publish countrywide inflation data, but consumer prices for the greater Buenos Aires area are used as a proxy. President Mauricio Macri revamped Indec after taking office in late 2016 due to widespread allegations of data manipulation by the previous administration. Indec resumed publishing inflation data in June.
January inflation was driven by an increase in transportation costs, after the government increased regulated gasoline prices early in the month, as well as an increase in recreation prices in the peak summer tourist season. Food and drink prices also rose 1.6%.
That was outweighed by a 2.2% drop in clothing prices and modest increases in other categories.
The central bank has noted that regulated prices, such as gasoline and electricity, are likely to increase by more than the core basket. Core inflation was also 1.3% in January, the lowest level since Indec resumed publishing inflation data.
Last week, the government announced a reduction in domestic electricity subsidies as part of its efforts to trim the fiscal deficit. The resulting price hikes of between 60% and 90% for most Buenos Aires-area consumers are expected to contribute to inflation in February and March.
The reading comes ahead of key annual salary negotiations between unions and employers, in which inflation expectations are a crucial factor in determining the level of pay raises.
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Here is how you determine the likely real inflation rates in Argentina:Feb 14th, 2017 - 09:39 pm 0
When government sources make a prediction for an inflation rate, add 10 percentage points.
When private economists make predictions, take their average and add 5 percentage points.
It is reasonable to expect that energy usage will reduce as the price people have to pay becomes closer to the true cost, so there will be further benefits in efficiency and reduced demand. If these more reliable stats are showing a reduction in core inflation too then this has to be good news for the economy.Feb 15th, 2017 - 06:58 pm 0
So, inflation has fallen just before the salary negotiation with the unions? That's a little too convenient if you ask me. But I hope you are right Zaphod and it is a real reduction in core inflation.Feb 15th, 2017 - 07:58 pm 0