MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
A third of Argentina's population live in poverty, according to the Catholic Church
Argentina urban poverty rate rose to 32.9% in the third quarter of 2016, which means 13 million people due to a precarious labor market and lack of long-term development policies, according to a report presented last week by the Social Debt Observatory from the Argentine Catholic University (UCA). Read full article
Comments
Disclaimer & comment rulesAccording to the last administration poverty was on a par with Germany? Were they liars or were they liars? That beacon of truth Think knows... For instance, who lives in all those cardboard shacks with the tin roofs? Enrique...Anyone?
Mar 13th, 2017 - 03:18 pm - Link - Report abuse +4If this report is to be believed then the VERY, VERY rich Catholic Church ought to sell some of their assets and help the poor. The Catholic Church as I understand it is the richest church in the world.
Mar 13th, 2017 - 03:37 pm - Link - Report abuse +3Exactly.
Mar 13th, 2017 - 03:39 pm - Link - Report abuse +1Poopsy, feed the poor.
Only fourteen months after Mauricio Macri assumed the presidency, not only his “poverty zero” promises have been debunked, but poverty is steeply increasing.
Mar 13th, 2017 - 05:33 pm - Link - Report abuse -7As the foreign debt continues its steep increase just to keep the lights on, companies linked to the Macri family are recipients of generous measures granted without fear of conflict of interest and workers are antagonized by the government.
Macri, however, was able to implement all the measures he wanted during a one-year honeymoon during which a dysfunctional opposition allowed the government to do as it pleased. The results begin to show now--and they are not pretty.
As such, Argentina will become a showcase of the contrasts between Macri's free-market, foreign indebtness, wealth concentration and trickle-down policies and the politics of strenghtening the domestic economy through re-distribution and social inclusion practised by the much-maligned Kirchnerism.
Reekie, are you a catholic?
Mar 13th, 2017 - 05:40 pm - Link - Report abuse -1“Trickle down policies” definitely applies to any wealth you might have had under the Kirchner's. The persistent slide of the Peso is testament to that?
Mar 13th, 2017 - 05:56 pm - Link - Report abuse +1@ EM
Mar 13th, 2017 - 10:12 pm - Link - Report abuse +2You are shameless. The poor were ignored by the Kirchners and the Boy Kicillof lied about their existence. How does that square with your love of the Kirchners?
The poverty in Buenos Aires is shocking but even worse in the provinces. After a decade of the Kichners that didn't improve but got considerable worse.
Enrique
Mar 14th, 2017 - 01:09 am - Link - Report abuse 0Even as CFK was insisting publicly that the poverty level 5%, and less than Germany, the Catholic Church aid workers with the poor were declaring there were well over 11 million Argentines living under the poverty line. More than 27.5% of the population.
This was reported in Clarin. CFK tried to shut down independent media for doing so.
Ideology over People.
Right Enrique?
ElaineB and Troy Tempest
Mar 14th, 2017 - 03:19 am - Link - Report abuse -3I am sorry guys. There seems to be a misunderstanding.
Perhaps you haven't heard it, but there has been a change in government in Argentina.
Mauricio Macri won an election and assumed power December 10, 2015. That's 15 months now.
In my posting, I was commenting about the above story that describes the current poverty levels in Argentina--March 2017.
You seem to be trying to do a historical analysis of the CFK government, which is good--only, I was not writing about it. Therefore your responses are off topic.
Try again and better luck next time.
Why Kamerad/Kamerad Rique, hadn't you heard? Your Narcokleptoracy ran the ecomomy into the ground. They even presided over riots where supermarkets were looted across the country whilst the cops stood by. You think Macri could fix this trainwreck in little over a year? Of course you don't. In fact you are working to wreck and sabotage his efforts. Funny thing is I don't think he will succeed, so hey, “party on,” dude. ;)
Mar 14th, 2017 - 04:00 am - Link - Report abuse -1http://kisworldhistory.wikispaces.com/file/view/Screen_shot_2012-04-09_at_8.44.07_PM.png/318688652/Screen_shot_2012-04-09_at_8.44.07_PM.png
“Unmask Him!”
@ EM
Mar 14th, 2017 - 11:13 am - Link - Report abuse -2Are you so naive to believe the rampant levels of poverty under the Kirchners can be reduced in just 15 months? Oh, dear.
Poverty levels increased under the Kirchners and they were ignored. The Boy Kicillof refused to acknowledge they existed so how can you help them when they don't exist in the eyes of the government? You have to acknowledge a problem to resolve it and the Kirchners failed spectacularly in reducing poverty levels. So, given that you pine for return of CFK as President, why do you think she would help the poor this time a round?
Enrique,
Mar 14th, 2017 - 01:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0When you have to lie, and lie to yourself, to make an arguement, isn't it about time you ask yourself “WHY?”
You are fooling only yourself - and again - the poor will go ignored if FPV are in power again.
Is that what you want?
Ideology over People, right?
Some of us have memories (and documentation... ;-)
Mar 14th, 2017 - 03:14 pm - Link - Report abuse -1May 2003..., President Kirchner assumes the presidency of a bankrupt Argentina with an 54,7% of Argentines under the poverty line and a 26,3 under the extreme poverty line...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998–
2002_Argentine_great_depression#Effects_on_wealth_distribution
Educate yourselves..., Anglo Turnips...
@ TT
Mar 14th, 2017 - 03:40 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You would think EM would look at Venezuela and learn something.
@EB
Mar 14th, 2017 - 06:44 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Elaine...you hate CFK. I understand that. But I trust that intellectual honesty would prompt you to look at the real picture.
Let's imagine for a moment that CFK left the Argentine economy as a mess. What would the next government be doing in that case? Perhaps what Macri promised before the election, to preserve what had been done well and improve what had been done badly? I think yes.
Instead, the bulk of economic measures taken by Macri and Co. are rapidly destroying whatever vitality remained in Argentina's economy.
Again, nobody is asking for an instant miracle here.
If poverty had remained the same for the last 15 months there would not be much to say of course.
Instead, poverty has increased under Macri, as revealed by the UCA.
Take a look again at this paragraph from the above article:
“The report also underlines that the 'gap' between rich and poor has widened...informal jobs and activities have been hit by the overall stagnation of the Argentine economy.”
Do the words “overall stagnation” hit a chord at all, Elaine?
Or you believe things must get worse before beginning to improve? Here we have not only the workers and the poor complaining. Supermarkets and most retail are not happy because they are selling less. Small and medium-size enterprises are closing down because they can’t compete with cheap imports.
Again, most Argentines were patiently waiting for a year the signs that would show improvement--or at least, that steps in the right direction were taken.
If that were happening, Cristina would be forgotten by now. Instead, several polls show her in a pretty good position if she submits her candidacy as senator in the Province of Buenos Aires.
In all of that, we have no influence—we are just observers. All we can aspire to is to have a more or less clear vision of what’s going on in Argentina’s interesting—and painful—current situation.
Enrique, you left Argentina long before Macri came to power so you can't blame Macri for creating all these problems that you yourself ran away from.
Mar 15th, 2017 - 12:04 am - Link - Report abuse +1Yes, you ran away. You decided to escape from what so many people couldn't escape from. You decided to give your son a chance in an English speaking, liberal democracy becasue you couldn't find that level of wealth and stability and safety in your own country.
You didn't stay to help out.
You didn't stay to improve your country.
You didn't return when Kirchner “improved” everything.
You won't even return to “fight” for your vision of Argentina.
Nope, just another emasculated Argentinean safely ensconced in a safe English speaking country enjoying the benefits of an economic and governmental system that you despise.
The reward is watching you attempt to hide your powerlessness online and the joy in knowing your son thinks of himself as Canadian and not Argentinean.
@Skip
Mar 15th, 2017 - 01:22 am - Link - Report abuse -1So much work to try and silence somebody's voice. Just so that you know, this forum's purpose is not to debate personal matters, but the stories above.
Your collection of irrelevant facts shows your intolerance and absolute lack of arguments in reference to my previous post.
And if you really insist in discussing personal matters, you know how to find me. You provide me with your real identity as I've done, and then we can have a civilized conversation on each one's personal choices in life.
If not, try at least to come here with some arguments about the important issues mentioned in the article above.
Not trying to silence you at all? Where did I say or try that?
Mar 15th, 2017 - 03:46 am - Link - Report abuse 0Say whatever you want.
Hiding behind some manufactured sense of persecution is quite laughable. There is no way for me to silence you and honestly your posts only reinforce what I wrote.
And where is my intolerance? How am I intolerant? Again, your persecution complex is showing. I just gave my opinion and impression of you. That gives context to your posts. Nothing intolerant about that.
To my anonymity. Just because you were stupid.... yes stupid... enough to use your real identity is again a reflection on you. The fact that it is so easy to see photos of your family online is truly showing ignorance of the consequences of your actions. Your wife's name, your son's name, the location where you live, where you holiday.... these are silly mistakes that I am not dumb enough to make. Getting people to repeat your mistakes won't make them go away. You, like the voting Argentinean public, need to own your bad choices and live with the consequences.
As for the article, Macri in less than 2 years hasn't solved what the Kirchners didn't solve in 10 years..... but supposedly Macri is held to a higher standard than the Kirchners who just stole money from Argentineans. But not from you.... you escaped so you could shower them with your benovolent opinion from the safety of Canada.
How lucky they are to have good patriotic Argentineans judge them from afar; but dislike being judged themselves.
@ Skip
Mar 15th, 2017 - 12:37 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The truth is EM has no credibility defending the Kirchners from Canada. He has no real life experience of living under their oppressive regime but had idealised them to suit his own fantasy.
Again, no arguments whatsoever from Skip and ElaineB, who have resorted to help each other trying to shake off an intruder that does not go by the book of rules.
Mar 15th, 2017 - 05:27 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Not a word commenting on the above story--only vague references to the Kirchners and the impossibility for president Macri to do anything against the famous “heavy inheritance” allegedly left by the previous government.
However, as pointed out by Think above, Nestor Kirchner assumed the presidency in 2003 with a country devastated with over 50 per cent of the population living in poverty. He did not lose time talking about his “inheritance.” He got to work, and a unique, prosperous decade of economic growth and social inclusion began for Argentina.
Again, not one would expect an explosion of prosperity at a time when the world's economy is sputtering. The population would have been grateful even if tiny steps had been taken in the right direction. The feeling of having been cheated by unfulfilled promises, however, is now rapidly growing, and the response of the government has been just to accelerate negative changes. Not a pretty picture by any means.
@ EM
Mar 15th, 2017 - 06:22 pm - Link - Report abuse 0What rules? Are you trying to make out you are some kind of rebel? You have to admit that is very childish of you.
No one has denied that Nestor Kirchner exploited fully Argentina at the time of a spectacular crash in the economy. (I have posted extensively about the crash; the causes and the equal culpability of both Argentina and the lenders in the biggest default in history). There was no other way than for the economy to go up so Nestor's 'Model' certainly was effective for a time. He rode the wave of an upturn in the global economy and used it to set up a scam that defrauded the Argentines of billions. The fact the 'Model' was unsustainable was proved when the global economy took a downturn and CFK had no clue how to manage or what to do. (Nestor had inconveniently died so she had no one to tell her). CFK relied on the Boy Kicillof to apply his useless economic theory that further drove the economy into the disaster zone.
What you fail to acknowledge, EM, is that through good times and bad the Kirchner never managed to address the appalling poverty in Argentina and decided instead to ignore it.
So, I repeat my questions to you. Since the Kirchner's 'Model” did nothing to alleviate poverty in twelve years why do you think Macri would solve it in 15 months (Remember the economy was in crisis when Marci took office), and why do you think CFK would be more successful given another term in office?
Are those reasonable questions allowed in your book of rules?
EM
Mar 15th, 2017 - 06:51 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“. The feeling of having been cheated by unfulfilled promises... ”
You would know.
Argentina got their $100b bailout, but the K's refused to pay back the European pensioners who funded it
TWIMC...
Mar 15th, 2017 - 08:17 pm - Link - Report abuse -2As I already said above...
Some of us have memory (and documentation... ;-)
May 2003..., President Kirchner assumes the presidency of a bankrupt Argentina with an 54,7% of Argentines under the poverty line and a 26,3 under the extreme poverty line...
2nd. semester 2003..., President Kirchner's policies have reduced the number of Argentines under the poverty line to 47.8% and under the extreme poverty line to 20.9%...
1st. semester 2004..., Kirchner's policies have reduced the number of Argentines under the poverty line to 44.3% and under the extreme poverty line to 17%...
2nd. semester 2004..., his policies have reduced the number of Argentines under the poverty line to 40.2% and under the extreme poverty line to 15%...
1st. semester 2005..., reduction of the number of Argentines under the poverty line to 38.5% and under the extreme poverty line to 13.6%...
2nd. semester 2005..., Argentines under the poverty line is now 33.8% and under the extreme poverty line 12.2%...
1st. semester 2006..., Argentines under the poverty line is now 31.4% and under the extreme poverty line 11.2%...
2nd.. semester 2006..., Argentines under the poverty line is now 26.4% and under the extreme poverty line 8.7%...
2nd. semester 2007..., Argies under the poverty line...: 20.6%; under the extreme poverty line 5.9%...
1st. semester 2008..., Argies under the poverty line...: 17.8%; under the extreme poverty line 5..1%...
2nd. semester 2008..., Argentines under the poverty line is now 15.3% and under the extreme poverty line 4.4%...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998-2002_Argentine_great_depression#Effects_on_wealth_distribution
》《《《《 BEEN THERE... GOT THE T SHIRT... BEST ONE WE EVER HAD...》》》》》
PS...:
- As the ones here with a memory will remember..., 2008 was the year of the global financial crisis..., considered by many economists to be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930's
That's very interesting data, Think, it looks like Argentina recovered quickly under Nestor. But don't stop there; CFK only took over in 2007. How do we get from 15.3% poverty at the end of 2008, to 29% poverty at the end of 2015?
Mar 15th, 2017 - 09:10 pm - Link - Report abuse +2Also I'm sure I heard that South American countries weren't much affected by the global financial crisis, but have been badly affected by the current slowdown in China. Is this not true?
@ElaineB
Mar 16th, 2017 - 04:32 am - Link - Report abuse -1“...through good times and bad the Kirchner never managed to address the appalling poverty in Argentina.”
There, Think has answered the question for me.
”After Argentina's) biggest default in history...there was no other way than for the economy to go up so Nestor's 'Model' certainly was effective for a time.“
You are not alone in repeating this perverse argument, which seeks to devaluate the effects of a successful administration and makes no sense whatsoever. Argentina has had governments who were very effective sending the country spiralling down in the best possible economic times, and viceversa.
”...Kirchner's 'Model” did nothing to alleviate poverty in twelve years (so) why do you think Macri would solve it in 15 months?”
Again, for the x time: Nobody expects Macri to solve poverty in 15 months. Argentines would have probably be fine if poverty had remained stable. Instead, it grew so much in just 15 months, people in many provinces went down to the streets today to protest Macri's economic policies.
In regards to your alleged Nestor's billionaire scam, perhaps you may elaborate some. First time I hear about it.
@ EM
Mar 16th, 2017 - 10:19 am - Link - Report abuse -1“There, Think has answered the question for me.”
A question you were unable to answer. I don't pay much heed to a man who spends his time playing with his own shit and sniffing crotches. Ask him about his hobbies and he will describe them in graphic detail.
“You are not alone in repeating this perverse argument,”
Because it is fact. Why not educate yourself on the economics and specifically related to the Argentine default and resurgence? Nestor rode the wave and if his leadership and 'Model' was so magnificent why did it fail again? The evidence is there in reality if you care to visit Argentina.
You fall back on the 'people are protesting today' for the x time and I repost with Argentines protest every day anyway. It is the national hobby. There were,on average, 350 protests per month during the Kirchner administration.
Once again you dodged my reasonable question, since the Kichners failed spectacularly in alleviating poverty in twelve years, why do you think CFK would achieve it with another term? Try answering without help.
Since Think doesn't seem inclined to do it: He got his data from Wikipedia, and Wikipedia lists the World Bank as a source.
Mar 16th, 2017 - 12:53 pm - Link - Report abuse 0http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.URHC?locations=AR
This has a handy chart showing poverty falling continuously until 2013, when it reaches 4.7% - the infamous 'lower poverty than Germany' figures. Are the stats for 2003 - 2008 correct? Quite possibly. Are they correct for 2013? Seems unlikely.
Here are some alternative figures from the Universidad Católica Argentina:
2010 28,2%
2011 24,7%
2012 26,2%
2013 27,4%
2014 28,7%
2015 29,0%
2016 32,9%
www.uca.edu.ar/uca/common/grupo68/files/2017-Observatorio-Informe-Pobreza-Desigualdad-Por-Ingresos-2010-2016.pdf
They show poverty has been rising since 2011 under CFK, and has continued to rise under Macri. Nothing to boast of for the new president, but not a sudden reversal either. The one thing he has done that's positive is allowing publication of the real stats again, even though they are not showing anything good for him.
@DT
Mar 16th, 2017 - 01:49 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You have to take into account that Nestor got rid of the independent statistic department and replaced it with his own people. No statistics can be believed that came out of the Kirchner's government.
Most of the figures used would have come from that source since accurate statistics were not available. Even the IMF gave up and closed its offices in Argentina since the statistics were clearly false and the whole situation a farce. Some independent charities working in Argentina placed poverty levels much higher. Al Jazeera also investigated and showed alarming poverty in the rural areas. And if you have first-hand experience you would see it with your own eyes. It is not just the 'villas miserias' but the grinding poverty in the rural areas. Poverty is a huge problem in South America and it is shameful when the government lies about it. Kicillof actually announced at a press conference that they would no longer be gathering statistics on the poor as it stigmatised people. The truth is is embarrassed the government. I think we should take into account that Macri is providing more realistic figures and inherited a broken and failing economy.
Sr. Massot...
Mar 16th, 2017 - 04:19 pm - Link - Report abuse -1Ladran Sancho...
@ EB
Mar 16th, 2017 - 04:47 pm - Link - Report abuse -1“Try answering without help.”
After more than a year of new government, I am not keen on analyzing CFK--she lost the election, is now a common citizen, her political future is unclear and she has no formal power. You may continue to pester about Cristina; I am more interested in checking what's going on today, as reported in the story above.
What's going on today is not only that the ranks of the poor are swelling--it's far more than that. In yesterday's street demonstrations there were not only the poorest, but small and medium-size entrepreneurs--neighbourhood store owners hurt by a reduction in consumption, manufacturers hurt by imports, and other middle-class people who are rapidly losing whatever little they have.
What happens, in a nutshell, is that whatever weaknesses and errors the previous government may have shown are now being dwarfed by the current race to disaster taken by the current team of CEOs in charge of the country.
And again, it's not a matter of asking miracles of the current president; however, he is alienating many of its supporters by being in total denial of what's going on under his watch.
@EM
Mar 16th, 2017 - 05:55 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You want CFK to be reelected, don't you? So I think it is fair to also talk about her.
Why do you think poverty was rising under her government? She didn't care about the poor? Or she had bad policies that did not achieve what she intended? Or it was caused by outside influences? Whatever it was, why do the same explanations not apply to Macri? There were also demonstrations against CFK weren't there? And people were unhappy enough about her rule to vote against her candidate, though maybe they regret it now.
@EB
The stats from the UCA seem to generally be considered reliable, although the article says they only cover urban poverty. As for the earlier ones, it's fairly obvious that poverty has fallen considerably from its high point after the default anyway.
@ EM
Mar 16th, 2017 - 05:59 pm - Link - Report abuse +1Slippery and foolish answer. CFK IS responsible for poverty being at such an appalling level but you want to pretend that is not true.
Sr. Massot...
Mar 16th, 2017 - 06:35 pm - Link - Report abuse -1In case you don't already know them....
Best Argentinean News Service in 2017...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5FrMrhfObCE
No kidding...
Think:
Mar 17th, 2017 - 04:36 am - Link - Report abuse -1I'm on C5N and love el Cadete, Gato Silvestre and Roberto Navarro.
@DT
Excellent questions that demand good answers. Will try tomorrow, Txs.
Okay, no problem.
Mar 17th, 2017 - 02:41 pm - Link - Report abuse -3No wonder why these guys seem to live in a bubble, they base their opinions solely off C5N. Wow! That's what I call heavy duty intellectual work.
Mar 17th, 2017 - 03:33 pm - Link - Report abuse +7Mr. Massot...
Mar 17th, 2017 - 04:17 pm - Link - Report abuse -1If you have C5N Included in your pool of Argie information sources..., you are better informed than most Argentines and certainly better than them Anglo Turnips...
I'm not sooooo wild with Mr. Navarro (exagera un poqititito y se repite un montón;-) & Mr. Silvestre (se morfa casi todas las eses,... se morfa ;-)
Iván Schargrodsky, on the contrary...!
Ese pebete has a bright future...!
By the way...
Have you read about the last “Error” from Macri & Co...?
http://www.politicargentina.com/notas/201703/19930-macri-le-dio-rutas-a-una-low-cost-integrada-por-un-costurero-y-una-jubilada.html
Cambiamos allright...
Pa'l carajo cambiamos...
You should try or at least attempt to urinate at the designated places.
Mar 17th, 2017 - 05:03 pm - Link - Report abuse +5@DT
Mar 17th, 2017 - 05:40 pm - Link - Report abuse -11. You want CFK to be reelected, don't you? So I think it is fair to also talk about her.
Personalities are secondary. Cristina Fernández may or may not return to politics, but what’s important for Argentines is to retain the option of building a strong economy based on national growth and social inclusion.
2. Why…poverty was rising under (CFK) government…people were unhappy enough about her rule to vote against her candidate…?
CFK may have erred facing the economic downturn started in 2008, and she paid the political price for it. But CFK had flaws in applying a project aiming to increase social justice, while Macri’s project is precisely based on deepening social injustice.
This reflects Argentina’s traditional schism between the agro-export, foreign-dependent model of the country’s traditional upper class, and that proposed by Juan Perón to develop a national, self-sufficient economy.
During Perón’s first and second government, the foreign debt was entirely paid (1952) and Argentina developed “the largest middle class in South America,” as stated in Wikipedia’s Economic History of Argentina.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina
The Argentine oligarchy rejected such model and bloodily overthrew Perón in 1955--it also overthrew in 1962 “desarrollist” Arturo Frondizi, who had been elected in 1958.
The ultra-wealthy families want to return to the 1860-1930’s, when the country grew rich exporting agricultural goods but the wealth was kept in their hands, providing cheap labour for their estancias and homes.
The Economist points to some aspects of the dilemma:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina
Macri's traits can be seen in his first actions that gave the upper hand to the agro-export sector (and the foreign-dominated mining industry) and his contempt for the majority of the population—which came to a head in recent weeks.
Enrique,
Mar 17th, 2017 - 06:13 pm - Link - Report abuse +7I agree with your analysis. But the world has changed a great deal since the times of Frondizi. We are in trouble if we judge any government by the same traits of agro-export model.
Let's face it, we are locked in an agro-export mode and this will be so for years to come. Not that I like that lock in, but I'm just accepting that the chances of Argentina becoming an industrialized nation over night are practically null.
Populism is not the answer. I don't think Macri is the answer either.
People (working people of Argentina, not beneficiaries of handouts) want different than having to put up with tsunamis of paid protesters in the streets. (These protests are not an expression of hunger. Just take a good look at the pictures. None of them protesters seem malnourished to me).
Jeahhhhhhhhhh..... Sr. Massot...
Mar 17th, 2017 - 06:36 pm - Link - Report abuse -1“Just take a good look at the video. None of them protesters seem malnourished to me either...”
They all look young, well nourished and intelligent...
As Señoritas de Primer Grado usually do...!
http://www.eldestapeweb.com/al-ritmo-luis-miguel-los-docentes-le-explicaron-macri-que-paran-n26788
El Think...
( Who's crush on his Señorita del1ero inferior is..., evidently...,evergreen... ;-)
@ EM
Mar 17th, 2017 - 06:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0How do you feel about the Kirchner's being one of the ultra wealthy families? They certainly were not before Nestor became President. You see, just because Nestor and CFK spouted about 'social inclusion' they didn't actually achieve it. They did manage to steal vast amounts of money from the Argentines.
What a kinky remark! I really do hope this doesn't turn into a delayed oedipus complex.
Mar 17th, 2017 - 07:08 pm - Link - Report abuse +4Regarding my post -that you quoted- I was not referring to the teachers protest. I agree they should be payed better. But they should also deliver for what they get paid. All in all, that whole Baradel thing is not about better education but just another political stand off so the union leader can keep their privileges.
What I was exactly referring to was the occupation of 9 de Julio by the hordes. That kind of timing and synchronization with respect to the teachers protest seems not casual at all. I just see the ugly and despicable “mafias” at work.
@TF
Mar 17th, 2017 - 10:47 pm - Link - Report abuse -1“Let's face it, we are locked in an agro-export mode...the chances of Argentina becoming an industrialized nation over night are practically null.”
Allow me to disagree. Argentina did have an incipient national industry that is now deteriorating by the day--and Macri is the executioner.
The most affected industries, as published by iProfessional.com, are clothing, naval, footwear, toys, electronics, furniture, leather, bicycles, alcoholic beverages and regional productions as reported by the Argentine Confederation of Medium-sized Enterprises (CAME).
http://www.iprofesional.com/notas/246260-CAME-advierte-por-cierre-de-fbricas-y-despidos-a-causa-del-crecimiento-de-las-importaciones
Reported by Infobae:
“In the footwear industry, the growth of imports was 40%. Beer was one of the drinks that came most from abroad. During the last year its import had a growth of 31%. On the other hand, in the naval industry imports increased by 256% during 2016.”
http://www.iprofesional.com/notas/246260-CAME-advierte-por-cierre-de-fbricas-y-despidos-a-causa-del-crecimiento-de-las-importaciones
And published today by Infobae:
“The industrial crisis continues to hit hard...the last ”victim” was the company Alpargatas, which had to close its plants in Villa Mercedes (San Luis) and Florencio Varela (Buenos Aires) and leave 200 workers out of work...also the factories of Cerámica San Lorenzo, Georgalos and Herzo, who were settled more than 30 years ago in the province of San Luis, during the period of industrial promotion...creating 500 new unemployed.“
http://www.iprofesional.com/notas/246260-CAME-advierte-por-cierre-de-fbricas-y-despidos-a-causa-del-crecimiento-de-las-importaciones
Which is extremely painful to learn. Alpargats is a symbol in Argentina of course, and I used to install ”azulejos” (tile) of the excellent brand San Lorenzo in bathrooms and kitchens during my time as construction worker.
So again, not asking for miracles. Just don't destroy what was there.
@EM
Mar 18th, 2017 - 11:12 am - Link - Report abuse -3Thanks for your reply. You say personalities are secondary, and I'm glad to hear it. I wish more people shared that view, in South America and elsewhere.
And you say CFK may have erred. Well, if her policies weren't working, isn't that a good reason to try something else? Suppose you are right that she aimed to decrease social injustice; that doesn't mean she was going about it the right way. Comparing to other countries, the Chilean economy was always a lot more open than Argentina's, and it seems to be generally doing better.
To me it seems especially damning that CFK tried to hide the truth and prevent publication of the true figures. If she won't let people have the evidence to judge for themselves, how can you possibly trust her to run the country?
As for the agro-export, do you believe Argentina cannot become industrialised without harming it? Or that relying on it for dollars prevents industrialisation? I'm not sure I understand why these are regarded as mutually exclusive.
By the way, since the redesign Mercopress has a bug that only allows you to post one link per comment. If you want to include more than one, you can delete the 'http://' from the link and it will appear as text.
@Tarquin Fin
If populism is not the answer, and Macri is not the answer (I'm inclined to agree with you), then what is?
Mr.DemonTree...
Mar 18th, 2017 - 11:50 am - Link - Report abuse 0You ask...:
”@Tarquin Fin
If populism is not the answer, and Macri is not the answer (I'm inclined to agree with you), then what is?”
I say...:
Isn't it obvious...?
Tarquin Fin-tim-lin-bin-whin-bim-lim-bus-stop-F'tang-F'tang-Olé-Biscuitbarrel's Silly Party...
Good one Think!
Mar 18th, 2017 - 02:25 pm - Link - Report abuse +1@EM
We did have an incipient industry. But that industry did not evolve to the next level because of protectionism and lack of funding for research.
Let me ask you this. If you had 15K dollars and could spend it in an Argentine made car or an European one, which one would you choose? Same make and model, they cost the same, only the European version is packed with much more features that our own.
What is the solution for that? Totally opening imports and let this industry die or improve this industry so that it produces world class cars?
I bet there is no easy answer for that one. That takes me to DT's question. A populist solution would be to keep protectionism on and subsidize car purchases to keep production up. A neo-con answer would be to open up imports and let the best cost-benefit product win.
Which is the right answer? For this you have to dig deeper into the cost structure of local industry. You will find yourself in a net of high operational costs, union interests increasing labour costs (in the form of social taxes that are manage by union leaders) and greedy local enterpreneurs.
So either macri or the populist are not looking and or talking about the huge pink elephant in the room.
They are just trying to polish the pair of shoes without realizing that is useless because of those big holes in the soles.
@DT
Mar 18th, 2017 - 02:33 pm - Link - Report abuse 0It's refreshing to have a real dialogue that does not exclude, of course, debate.
As for your question: “As for the agro-export...why these are regarded as mutually exclusive?”
They aren't. That's one of the big failures of the current government.
Let's remember that, in one of his first acts of government, Macri did away with the “retenciones” to agro-export products depriving the state of a significant source of revenue and de-facto devaluated the peso by 40 per cent, piling up another huge gift to landowners.
Next, the Macri government opened wide the door to imports and increased the energy prices, dealing a double whammy to a local industry already affected by a significant reduction in purchase power of the population.
Here you have an example of a government that produces economic measures that do not make any sense unless you use my previous analysis and your own question: why would two important sectors of the economy be mutually exclusive?
Let's imagine the “retentions” to agro-export were excessive and as government you wanted to provide stimulus to those products. Then, you would lower the “retenciones” to an intelligent level--not suppress them.
Next, why on earth would you open wide your economy to imports of products already produced in the country--especially at a time when the world tends to close itself? This strategy, that purports to lower inflation, kills jobs and creates a huge disbalance in hard currency scurrying out of the country at unsustainable levels. It was the short-lived “miracle” strategy of the civic-military dictatorship of the 1970s, that allowed massive imports of then junk Japanese cars that inundated the country only to fall quickly into disrepair without a dealer network to fix them. The strategy created a huge foreign debt that has now been dwarfed by its current increase.
On another note, desperation seems to have overtaken Clarin, which has stated Felipe Gonzalez asked Macri to jail Cristina (Gonzalez denied).
@EM
Mar 18th, 2017 - 03:28 pm - Link - Report abuse +1You are correct about the retentions. I didn't like that and certainly keeping them at an intelligent level was the sensible action I was expecting for.
I can only interpret this as the continuous “push-pull” between interest groups. Landowners feel they have been abused during the last decade so now it should be their payback time. After this, another sector will feel they have been exploited and demand reparations. This is a self destructive cycle. Once again, nobody is looking at the real issues here.
Please allow me a constructive critique about those junk Japanese cars. In the 70's local cars lacked a lot of basic features that where already included on imported cars. What is the point of an industry if consumers are not satisfied by its products?
I'm not saying that you should kill entire industries to just satisfy consumers, but you should make sure that consumers get the value that they pay for. What the military dictatorship did was ridiculous. They didn't have a plan. They just wanted to put up a show.
Let's forget consumers for a minute and let's look at the production chain. What happens when you want to produce cheaper an better but are not able to get quality machinery and services at a fair price but neither can import them? The entire production chain becomes exponentially innefficient. This is what is going on right now. Instead of Japanese it is Chinese this time. The problem remains the same after 40 years. Couldn't we just be intelligent about imports (and retenciones as well)?
@EM
Mar 18th, 2017 - 05:06 pm - Link - Report abuse -2“They aren't. That's one of the big failures of the current government.”
But isn't it also one of the big failures of the previous government? They made the taxes so high that competitiveness suffered, and production fell significantly, which is pretty serious considering agro-exports are a significant source of export dollars.
Most countries have no taxes on exports for the exact same reason you think import tariffs are beneficial - it makes other countries' products cheaper. You say Macri should have lowered the “retenciones” rather than eliminating them, but you haven't explained why they were beneficial in the first place.
Also, devaluing the peso should have helped all exporters, not just the agricultural ones. Wasn't the removal of the dollar peg and drastic devaluation of the peso in 2002 one reason for the rapid growth from 2003, as it made Argentina's exports much more competitive?
About the foreign debt, do you have any figures showing how it has increased under Macri, and how much was borrowed by CFK? It seems a little complicated because of the default etc.
@TF
That sounds very reasonable, but probably more easily said than done. Argentina always scores very badly on 'ease of doing business', but I'm not so familiar with the country so I don't know what the actual problems are. Is it the laws or the unions or the difficulty in getting machinery you mentioned, or is there more?
I think you said you voted for Macri, so what were you hoping he would do?
EM
Mar 18th, 2017 - 07:22 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Protectionist policies have been shown by many precedents that they do not help domestic industries IN THE LONG RUN.
They only isolate them from real-world market forces that would require them to innovate to efficiently produce up to date, competitive products at reasonable cost to the consumer.
This was made abundantly clear by the decade of Protectionist polices of the Kirchnerists.
Not only is the domestic market required to pay more for an outdated or lesser product, but the products they export lag behind more and more, becoming less and less competitive, and superseded by better technology.
Enrique argues that Argentina should move away from an agrarian economy instead, not rely on agricultural exports, and furthermore, he advocates encouraging and growing, technological and manufacturing industries.
Without an incentive to innovate in order to dominate the domestic market, how do they expect to create state of the art technology products?
The problem with free market policies in Argentina is that nobody will develop technological and manufacturing industries in Argentina without protectionism, because farming is much easier for the lazy and primitive brains of most of the Argentinian elite (since they only need the land, all of the seeds and machinery are bought from countries with people who actually put effort in developing technology), and much more profitable. Without protectionism there would be zero industry in Argentina.
Mar 19th, 2017 - 01:58 am - Link - Report abuse +1The only way a free trade economy might work in Argentina is if we tax the hell out of the wealthy and redistribute, like in Norway or Sweden, but we did this since Peron to no avail. Anyway, the economy cannot work if the government cannot balance its budget due to people asking for free cash...
MM
Mar 19th, 2017 - 03:50 am - Link - Report abuse -1So, what are you saying?
“Argentina is a lost cause, because of the Argentinians”?
What do Enrique, Think, and Nostrils have to say about that?
Oh, right - they're emblematic of the problem.
@ Kanye
Mar 19th, 2017 - 09:20 am - Link - Report abuse +1I don't agree with MM's assessment of Argentines but you have to also consider that if you built a successful and profitable company in Argentina under the K's, you could guarantee it would be stolen or subjected to extortion. Protection money had to be paid to stop your business being trashed, just as the middle classes living in nice homes had to pay the local police force to stop their homes being burgled. (If you didn't pay they gave your address to the thieves). The idea of 'taxing the hell out of the wealthy' never works because they just move their money and investment abroad. They did this under the K's and I am unaware of vast sums being brought back under Macri. (It is too early for him to be trusted).
I remember a long conversation with a wealthy chap where I took him to task over rampant tax avoidance in Argentina. I put it to him that they couldn't complain about the terrible state of the schools and roads etc. if nobody want to pay into the system to fix them. He pointed out the reality in Argentina that if they paid more in it would not improve anything but the bank accounts of the corrupt officials in the government. And that is the real problem. If anything is successful or profit making the government officials will steal it. Corruption is systemic so the chances of redistributing wealth to the poor is a non-starter; it will just go into the pockets of corrupt officials.
EB
Mar 19th, 2017 - 02:22 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Interesting, thx.
EB
Mar 19th, 2017 - 09:33 pm - Link - Report abuse +2I mostly agree with your post except the part about making protection payments to police so your home isn't robbed. I have heard cases like that but never actually knew anybody who was forced to pay for protection regarding their houses. Small businesses (like convenience stores or kiosks) usually provide policemen with cold beverages or food so they are more vigilant in that block. DVD pirating shops do pay a fee.
@DT
Of course, easier said than done, but no change is possible unless you acknowledge the beast.
As of what I expected Macri to do, well, for starters he won over a party that scourged the country with old slogans, lies and arrogance. All politicians lie but one thing that you should never lie about is the value of your currency. This was done within 2 weeks of inauguration and that was a relief.
Other points: Reform of the state, minimize the aggression of street protests, get Argentina back on track on its risk rating, keep social help but gradually cut it down to reasonable levels, agree with unions and companies (specially the food and transportation sector) so prices wouldn't go up at an alarming rate.
I mostly agree with the gradual change in tariffs and taxes.
How did it work out? Measures in these areas have been taken or at least attempted but it seems that they are not coordinating the actions well enough. Political opposition pressure is factor but not easily dismantled if you are smart. Congress is a factor but the Presidency here has more powers and can take many actions without previous legislative approval (of course that could be undone if congress gathers 2/3 of both chambers i guess).
There's a gotcha in all this. We as a whole, like quick results or else get impatient. Reform takes years. So I hope he does well in this mid term election.
@TF
Mar 19th, 2017 - 10:26 pm - Link - Report abuse 0”Reform takes years. So I hope (Macri) does well in this mid term election.”
I don't believe there well-being as a mirage is waiting to happen sometime in the future when in the short-term you are making policies that chastise the majority of the population. However, this argument has been used in the past by regressive governments as a way to keep social unrest at low levels until a new re-distribution of wealth benefiting minorities is achieved.
In a word, if the remedy kills the patient, what's the point?
As far as things go, Macri's Cambiemos alliance is paying the price by scoring third in the October vote intentions, behind the Massism and CFK. Of course, things may change.
However, in unsuspected moves, Macri not only appears not to care or being in total denial about the effects of his government measures--he's promising more increases in energy tariffs, and to remain inflexible in the government's conflict with the teachers. It'll be interesting to see what happens in October.
On another note, I am encouraged the discussion in this thread has moved to debate issues as opposed to shooting messagers.
The last postings in which writers were trying to imagine what could work in Argentina as economic choice show goodwill and I for one appreciate it.
Enrique,
Mar 19th, 2017 - 10:43 pm - Link - Report abuse +22016 has been tough on everybody and 2017 certainly doesn't look like a walk on the park. The majority of people feels the consequences of bread and circus during 12 years. The majority of people is not so deluded as to believe this is just an effect of Macri's mischief. They can tout him as incompetent or a pussy, but that's not going to park Cristina -or one of her minions- on the Pink House.
@ TF
Mar 19th, 2017 - 10:46 pm - Link - Report abuse +1I met someone living in a neighbourhood that was paying protection money to the local police. I was introduced by the father of a friend and the account was believable. (I tend to be quite cynical until I am convinced).
@EB
Mar 19th, 2017 - 11:05 pm - Link - Report abuse +1I'm not saying you are lying. Just wanted to point out that such things are not so widespread as far as my experience can recollect.
@TF
Mar 19th, 2017 - 11:18 pm - Link - Report abuse 0That's very interesting. It sounds like Macri is broadly doing what you wanted but his cuts were too drastic and sudden.
And from what Elaine said, it seems a big part of the problem is corruption and instability - people don't trust that their taxes will be spent wisely, they can't trust that their savings won't disappear due to inflation, and they can't be sure their company won't suffer due to sudden changes in the law. People can't plan for the future if they think the country is going to go bust every 20 years.
If Macri could at least get inflation under control that would be a big improvement, it would solve the teachers' strikes and stop eating away at people's standard of living.
@ TF
Mar 20th, 2017 - 02:52 am - Link - Report abuse +1No, I didn't think you thought I was lying, I was just passing on my experience.
@ DT
Except you are forgetting there were numerous teachers strikes under the K's. EM likes to harp on about strikes under Macri but conveniently glosses over the average of 350 strikes per month under the K's. Argentines strike as if it is a hobby. That is not to say they are not all without merit but many are staged and the protesters paid.
Inflation was rampant and out of control for much of CFK's rule. The problem was they lied about the statistics and it was much higher than the government quoted. Friends there had two huge complaints about CFK's second term, rising crime and inflation. They complained less about the corruption because it is systemic, expected and accepted. It would take a massive cultural change to stop it and I cannot see that happening.
Another example I came across was of a Chilean who set up a business in Mendoza. This is a very successful businessman in Chile. After some years he closed down the business because of the rampant corruption. He explained how there was virtually a queue at the door of officials expecting kick-backs, from local government, the police, unions, etc. So the business closed putting local employees out of work.
Sr. Massot...
Mar 20th, 2017 - 05:07 am - Link - Report abuse -2Mi sucinto, gráfico (y trasnochado) comentario sobre la situacion actuál del país...
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_b-wSr4MHM5E/TDNbyIabNWI/AAAAAAAAApk/d7TrxcILfhE/s1600/The+Macrix.png
@EB
Mar 20th, 2017 - 12:50 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The current teachers' strike is about the (well below rate of inflation) payrise being offered to teachers isn't it? So lowering inflation should sort out that one problem at least.
Why were the teachers striking under CFK if not because of inflation (which you did say was 'rampant'?
And who do you think is/was paying people to protest?
@ Enrique
Mar 20th, 2017 - 02:27 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Please check www.lapoliticaonline.com. There's an article there that I think you will find interesting. (El problema de la deuda regreso con fuerza).
DT,
Mar 20th, 2017 - 03:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Teachers and Security Forcee and others found themselves falling behind in Purchasing Power because of bigtime inflation.
The government would grant them large pay increases, but usually only after they protested or went on strike - Security forces were the most worrying of course.
CFK and the K posters on here like Enrique and Nostrils, would shrug their shoulders and say,“ what's the problem? Prices go up and wages always follow” How is that sustainable and normal, do you think?
The government had to cut something somewhere to keep the ship afloat...
Who do you think paid?
Who do you think was hurt the most by this situation?
@ DT
Mar 20th, 2017 - 04:55 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I remember questioning one of the strikes and it was because of the lack of resources and terrible condition of the classrooms. Another was because they were often not paid on time - or not at all for months at a time.
Speaking to people there to gauge the value of teachers in society they rank quite low. (The same in Chile) It seemed odd because there are so many Argentines in education- seemingly until their 30s. The University of Buenos Aires has over 300,000 students and around 30,000 academic staff. (You thought U of Leeds was big with around 30,000 students). Though speaking with a number of students they don't seem to do much studying it seems to be an excuse not to work. Others admit to giving up courses as the teaching staff were always striking or not turning up.
Argentina also has the three tier system of education. State education which the majority attend and is pretty poor, church schools and at the top fee paying schools that are quite good.
I think good education is a key to developing a country. Until the teachers are valued more, paid more (or at all) and are held to a higher standard they will never produced a well-educated population and it will hold the country back.
What's coming to head right now is Macri's goal of reducing wages--including those of teachers--by giving rises below inflation. Smart guy if there ever was one!
Mar 20th, 2017 - 07:10 pm - Link - Report abuse 0In any event, the strategy is consistent with statements Macri made long before becoming president: “We need to lower costs, and wages are part of those costs.”
It is also consistent with declarations of Cambiemos economist Javier Gonzalez Fraga, who stated last year: ”We came from 12 years where things wer badly done (causing) overconsumption, delayed rates and exchange rate ... Where you made believe an average employee that his salary could be used to buy cell phones, plasma TVs, cars, motorcycles and go abroad.“
Which explains why Macri and Co. are not interested in creating a strong domestic market in which citizens earn decent wages and spend locally. Instead, Macri's economic measures are oriented by the ”trickle down“ theory that purports allowing high incomes become higher which would eventually trickle down to the middle and low class through the creation of jobs etc. Of course, the theory is nothing but a diversion. When high incomes increase, what happens is more speculation, capital flight and other practices that keep the concentration of wealth in few hands.
Unexpectedly, famously elitist Mirtha Legrand told Macri in a recent televised dinner: ”You are not seeing the reality--people are complaining.” Precious, and interesting to see the look of First Lady Juliana Awada to Legrand after that.
@EB
Mar 20th, 2017 - 07:18 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Well, at least they are being paid now, even if not enough.
And wasn't Trollboy complaining education isn't valued enough in Argentina as well? That does sound like a problem - not that it's great here, the Asian countries seem to have the attitudes about education. I bet the teachers striking a lot doesn't help with that either, but it's sort of chicken and egg.
I agree good education is important for developing the country, and helps people make better voting decisions too (or it should). But who knows if they will get it, Tarquin's article sounds rather alarming.
@Kanye
Unfortunately the inflation problem is still ongoing, and it's the poorest who are hurt the most by it.
“Prices go up and wages always follow”, is true in every country to a point, but obviously high inflation causes problems of its own. 'Nostrils' isn't a K supporter, by the way. Did you mean Think?
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