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Recession ahead for UK economy, be it a soft or hard Brexit, forecasts leading investment bank

Friday, October 13th 2017 - 12:04 UTC
Full article 48 comments

The Conservative Party’s plans for a “no deal” hard Brexit would plunge the UK into immediate recession, cost the British economy £400 billion and wipe 18% off GDP growth by 2030, a leading investment bank has warned. Read full article

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  • golfcronie

    All doom and gloom, who on earth do these people KNOW what will happen 13 years into the future

    Oct 13th, 2017 - 01:11 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Voice

    Interesting...

    “However, if the UK and EU were to agree on a free trade agreement, GDP would still fall but only by 1.1% and by just 0.3% in a soft Brexit scenario.

    For countries in the euro area, any form of Brexit would see a 2% hit to EU GDP by 2024”

    So in a soft Brexit scenario the EU are going to see a 2% hit to their GDP whilst the UK would only see a possible 0.3% hit to their GDP...

    No wonder the EU is so angry..
    The scenario that I would like to see, that isn't mentioned, is the EU hit to GDP in the event of a hard Brexit...
    Is it better or worse than the UK hit...

    Oct 13th, 2017 - 05:16 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • St.John

    Not to worry.

    It probably won't be much worse than the late 1940s and people survived those. Most did.

    Oct 13th, 2017 - 06:08 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Islander1

    Might have something to do with country of the bank and person,s name?

    Oct 13th, 2017 - 06:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Conqueror

    RaboBank. A Dutch company. Who would have thought?

    Oct 13th, 2017 - 07:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    @Voice
    I think you're misinterpreting the article. They are predicting a recession in the UK during which GDP would decline by between 0.3% and 2.4% depending on scenario, ie negative growth. For the Netherlands, they predict a slowing of growth during those years, with a growth of only 0.2% in 2020 vs 1.5% with no Brexit.

    The other numbers appear to be comparisons of growth with and without Brexit, ie if Britain stayed in the EU, we'd be 18% richer by 2030 than if we have a hard Brexit in 2019. There will still be some growth once the recession ends, just not as fast.

    It says the hit to EU GDP is about the same in any scenario, which is an extremely bad thing for us. If the EU negotiators believe this study, then they have no particular reason to cooperate with Britain to try to make a deal...

    Oct 13th, 2017 - 08:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Clyde15

    S.John

    I did.

    Oct 13th, 2017 - 09:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Capt Rockhopper

    I bet he is a remoaner.

    Oct 15th, 2017 - 10:55 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    He's Dutch so he didn't have a vote. I can't imagine he's exactly thrilled that Britain's action is going to make the Netherlands poorer though.

    @Clyde15
    How bad were the late 40s, really? There was still rationing into the 50s right?

    Oct 15th, 2017 - 01:42 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Clyde15

    DT

    I didn't know times were hard. Being born during the war, you just took it that things were normal. I can remember we were allowed 1cwt of coal per fortnight. The houses were heated only by a coal fire which had to be started every morning. Getting out of bed in Winter was a challenge as you could see the ice on the inside of the windows.
    But again, clothes were made of heavyweight material which could keep you warm.

    Gas pressure was so low at times that my mother could hardly cook on the stove. Hot water was obtained by boiling a kettle.
    Nearly all food was on ration until 1954...I was 12 by then.

    I can remember clothing coupons and how items were repaired.
    My mother taught me to darn socks and sew on buttons. We kept brown paper and string for parcels. Anything reusable was kept

    However, there was an uniform standard of living among the working population. Incomes were roughly the same all over the country so you did not feel you had been left behind.

    One thing I can remember was that a letter posted in London at 4pm would be delivered first post the next day...compare that with now !

    Oct 15th, 2017 - 04:53 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    It sounds pretty unpleasant. But I'm sure you're right that never having known anything different it seemed normal at the time.

    Heating by coal fire must have sucked even you had unlimited amounts of coal. And the clothes thing is so different to today; most clothes are cheap and disposable, not designed to last. I did once darn my favourite pair of jeans after I dropped acid on them, but I can't imagine darned socks would be very comfortable. Did people wear a lot of wool clothes in those days?

    Do you think people are happier when everyone is poor but they have a uniform standard of living, or richer, but some people are very rich and some very poor?

    And I can't believe the Royal Mail were ever so efficient. Wow.

    Oct 15th, 2017 - 10:29 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Clyde15

    As far as clothing, there were virtually no man made fibres. The first nylon shirts were available in the mid 50's and were horrible to wear..
    Darned socks were not uncomfortable because they were darned with wool which was soft and socks were thick.
    I found an old shirt in a case in the loft. It must have been 60 years old. The material was Sea Island Cotton and the weave was so dense it could have stopped a bullet, It weighed about three times as much as a current cotton/polyester shirt.

    I can't remember exactly the composition of trousers but they were usually worsted or serge cotton...heavy duty.....and many had a wool mix in them. Men's jacket's were wool including Harris Tweed which is indestructible .

    I can remember having a gaberdine trench coat when I was about 16 -the height of fashion !
    This was a mixture of worsted wool and cotton. It was as warm as could be in the coldest weather and quite rain proof..the fibres swelled up when wet and prevented the rain getting through. The downside was it weighed a ton.

    If I look back two generations, the difference in life is remarkable.

    My grandparents had to work about a 50 hour week..or more. No health service, you could be fired at a whim. Child mortality was rife. Every married couple could expect one or more children to die in infancy from easily cured diseases now.

    My parents saw family members killed in the Great War, suffered through the depression and then another war. Conditions after the war were in some ways worse until the 50's

    For me, as a child and then a teenager, whatever happened was normal. We could see that things were getting better. There was hope for the future..if you excluded nuclear destruction.

    I was contemplating the £164 million winner on the Euro lottery and decided that I would not want it. I would have a job thinking about who I could give it to...obviously family for a start and the rest to charities/good causes but there is nothing I really want.

    Oct 16th, 2017 - 10:35 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The Voice

    1942 snap Clyde, we are the Silent Generation remember that... The Boomers like Voicey are taking the flak. When the Cuban missile crisis was going, we had fun discussing what or who we would do when the 4 minute warning was given ;-) It sounds bad but todays young folk have absolutely no idea... The 60s was great fun though, best time to be young and that made up for the deprived times. My love of music got started then and still continues to this day. Went to three gigs last week, folk, jazz and absolutely storming rock. Jimmy Shand is long gone isnt he?

    Oct 16th, 2017 - 01:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    Were socks all made of wool back then, like hiking socks? I'm sure if you tried to darn a thin cotton sock you'd end up with uncomfortable lumps.

    Did your old shirt still fit you? ;) I think clothes are flimsier now even than when I was a child, and I wonder if kids even get hand-me-down clothes anymore. All the trench coats I've seen seem to be made of thinish cotton that's not warm at all, but I suppose clothes were a lot more expensive back then. Did you have to wear swimming things made out of wool? Sounds horrible and heavy.

    If you were born in the 40s then your grandparents would have been born in Victorian times? It certainly was a different world 100 years ago. Both my grandfathers fought in the war and one lost an eye; my grandmother told me she used to wake up to ice on the inside of the windows, too, and got chilblains in winter, which is something I've only read about in books.

    For me I feel like during my life the future looked fairly hopeful until a few years ago. The Berlin wall came down and communism ended, Nelson Mandela was freed and South Africa became democratic. China was opening up and developing... although there were always problems the world was getting better in general, and we could campaign for things and make a difference.

    But now it's the opposite. Countries becoming more and more autocratic, rights being rolled back. People who no longer trust institutions or the media and prefer to believe hair brained conspiracy theorists or demagogues on youtube.

    And look at sci-fi books and movies. Stuff from the sixties is so optimistic; humans overcome all the obstacles, work together and achieve great things. Now it all seems to be dystopian fiction with one kind of apocalypse or another and people who fight needlessly and betray each other for little gain.

    PS. Speaking of apocalypses, have either of you seen the alarming red sun today? There must be a hurricane coming!

    Oct 16th, 2017 - 02:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The Voice

    Saharan Dust!

    Brave New World, 1984, getting chucked out of our colonies, Cold War, Red Robbo, Miners Strike, 3 day week etc etc.

    Never mind, there was great music, mini skirts, the pill, proper beer, characterful British cars and bikes, swinging London, foreign holidays etc. No credit cards, more difficult to get into debt. Half a million unemployed, jobs everywhere. Its all about how you look at things, cup half full or half empty.

    Oct 16th, 2017 - 02:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    So back then, did you feel like all those colonies becoming independent countries was a good thing or a bad thing? Were you worried about countries turning communist or dictators taking over in Africa? Did you know about rash of military coups in Latin America in the 70s? And when there were all those strikes and car manufacturers had to be nationalised and Britain took a loan from the IMF, were you worried about the future of the country? Did you think they were right to hold all those strikes?

    And what is Red Robbo? Sounds like a children's game.

    Oct 16th, 2017 - 03:24 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The Voice

    We felt independence was inevitable and the right thing, but feared most places would become chaotic and evil which they did as tribal and ethnic divisions were let loose. Dictators, civil wars and genocides abounded without British order to keep the lid on. Its still going on but no longer our responsibility.
    Latin America was regarded simply as a basket case - 78 revolutions per minute !
    Red Robbo was the chief shop steward at British Leyland. He and Torchy the robot thoroughly mucked up our car industry before the Japs taught us quality control. Yes, we were worried, the end of the 70s was a fraught time that Corbyn seems to want to reintroduce. Just ideological destruction for its own sake. Although Thatcher stopped the rot she and that financial moron Keith Joseph wiped out large sections of decent British Manufacturing via myopic misplaced financial terrorism instead of reforming it. We are still feeling the very bad effects of that.

    Its the Yanks turn now, they have Trump. Watching that film Idiocracy should be mandatory for all Yanks because thats where they are now headed supported by the really stupid like Hepatitus.

    Oct 16th, 2017 - 03:49 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    “Latin America was regarded simply as a basket case - 78 revolutions per minute”

    Did you know at the time how much the US was involved in those coups and the torture and disappearances that followed?

    “Just ideological destruction for its own sake.”

    What actually happened? This was before I was born but not long enough ago that I learned about it in school. What did the strikers hope to achieve? And what was the real problem with manufacturing? Other countries managed to carry on and make it profitable.

    How's the hurricane going at your place? Here the dust has gone and the sky is blue again instead of orange. But the wind is getting up too...

    Oct 16th, 2017 - 04:48 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Clyde15

    To be honest, I felt really not a lot about the African colonies. I couldn't figure out why we were there so good luck to them with independence .
    The Caribbean islands and the Pacific protectorates were also heading for independence and UK Customs staff were being seconded to train locals taking over posts.
    I fancied Fiji but it was decades later before postings came for this. By this time I was too old and settled for the job but I persuaded him to apply and he got the job on a six months posting which lasted two years. It was not until 2006 that I managed to visit the islands.
    Cyprus , I was unsure about. There were two conflicting points of view...Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots. I knew many service men who had lived there and loved the place and the people but they sensed that it would turn sour if Enosis came into being. The Turks would revolt and civil war would ensue...exactly what happened. The very people who wanted the UK to depart were the ones who were grateful when a squadron of RAF Phantoms were dispatched to Akrotiri to stop the Turks over-running the island.
    I also was short-listed to be chief Customs officer in the Falklands for a three year spell but married life put an end to that !

    I can remember the advice in event of a nuclear attack...“Put your head between your legs and kiss your arse goodbye”

    As the Voice says, it was good time to be young in the 60's.

    After trad.jazz and rock in the 50's, I took the Folk rout in the 60's and messed about with the guitar trying to play ragtime music...I am still trying.

    As to British cars, they were nearly all a load of unreliable crap. They would rust and fall apart in about three years. Been there and done it !

    My shirt would in no way fit. When I got it, I had the build of the athlete which I was. Now I have the build of a Sumo wrestler !

    Oct 16th, 2017 - 04:52 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The Voice

    I am talking about Latin America long before the US got involved with Central America.

    The strikers just wanted more money constantly. Communists and agitators like Corbyn MacDonald and Scargill. The management was poor comprised of folk like accountants that didnt have a clue. Lord Nuffield was the sort of guy that was needed, knowledgeable, practical, charismatic with respect for his workforce. I worked in Companies with similar people on tne shop floor - scum.

    Thatchers policies caned any business with large borrowings. If you are an exporter of Engineering goods you will inevitably have large borrowings because you probably wont get paid for 12 months. Many folded and disappeared. German banks were more enlightened and displaced us in overseas markets.

    No probs with the wind here but plenty of dust. Voicey will be busy moving his car from his drive up the hill.

    Oct 16th, 2017 - 05:04 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Clyde15

    Line 6 of my last post. remove “him” and substitute a “young colleague”

    No red dust here but this morning the sky was a bright canary yellow for a couple of hours..with apologies to South Pacific.

    At Troon this afternoon the sea was calm and the temp.18°c. The rain and wind started at about 5 pm but nothing out of the ordinary. Maybe the worst will come later. From reports I have seen, it does not seem any worse than what we can expect every winter.

    I would agree with the Voice about Trade Union policies in the 70's but when Thatcher came in it went totally the other way...to the point of vindictiveness.

    Oct 16th, 2017 - 06:51 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The Voice

    Clyde, Alex Campbell, The Corries, Robin Hall and Jimmy? MacGregor, some good stuff from your part of the world instead of those wailing pipes! That said I did enjoy Stramash at the Islay Jazz Festival.

    Oct 16th, 2017 - 09:33 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    @Clyde15
    Damn, you should have gone to the Falklands. And lol at the shirt, what kind of sport did you do?

    I don't know much about Cyprus, but it sounds like a mess, and the island is still partitioned today. It's a shame they haven't been able to sort it out in all this time.

    @TV
    After reading about how much power the unions had before Thatcher, it agree it was excessive, but now things have gone too far the other way. They want to make it illegal to call a strike unless more than 50% of the members vote for it, but also illegal to hold a vote in the workplace or by any method that would allow them to get a decent response rate.

    It's windy here but nothing out of the ordinary yet. It's been really warm the last few days which I suppose is related.

    Oct 16th, 2017 - 10:31 pm - Link - Report abuse -1
  • Capt Rockhopper

    Freedom, what price freedom. Two world wars were fought for the freedom of Europe, millions of lives lost in the process, now people are prepared to give up that hard fought freedom for cheap holidays on the beaches of Benidorm and Aya Napa. They have all forgotten the beaches of Dunkirk, Anzio, Nettuno, Sicily. Tunisia and Normandy.

    Oct 17th, 2017 - 03:48 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The Voice

    Cyprus tried to sort itself last year. The Turkish side is protected by the Turkish Army and are scared of the Greeks. The Greeks cut off the Turkish sides water and the Turkish Cypriots now get their water via a pipeline from Turkey! They got very close to an agreement last year but not close enough. Northern Cyprus is a very nice place.

    Oct 17th, 2017 - 08:17 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    @Capt Rockhopper
    That sounds strangely familiar... ah, it's the petition Think was flogging last year:

    https://www.ipetitions.com/petition/is-your-cheap-holiday-worth-their-lives

    But please do tell us how cheap holidays in Benidorm threaten the freedom of Europe.

    @The Voice
    Water from Turkey? That sounds incredibly daft. What are the Turkish Cypriots so scared of?

    Oct 17th, 2017 - 08:44 am - Link - Report abuse -1
  • The Voice

    Its not daft, the Greek Cypriots cut their water supply off, the Turkish Cypriots had no alternative other than desalination ! They were massacred before the Turkish Army arrived to protect them. They still protect some Christian churches on their side. On the Greek side I have seen burnt out Mosques. Its a very sensitive situation there, efforts to resolve it have failed so far. But, its easy to travel from one side to the other. They will reunite one day. Lets hope Ireland will some day. The Turkish part has no international recognition.

    Oct 17th, 2017 - 10:47 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Clyde15

    T.V,
    Archie Fisher is still going 60 years on ! I still have Robin and Jimmies 45rpm discs and I love Barbara Dixon's voice ..especially singing unaccompanied. I can remember the Corries when they were a group of 4. They improved greatly when they became a duo.
    I can remember concerts by the Spinners and Cyril Tawney. His song “Sally Free and Easy” has stayed with me for about 60 years. I first heard it in a concert in the old St.Andrew's Hall in Glasgow. It was so emotionally raw that it felt an intrusion to applaud.
    At the end of the song there was silence for ages before the applause started.
    Ewan McColl and Peggy Seeger were also popular on the folk circuit.

    DT.
    My main sport was Field event athletics. I had an aptitude for throwing things. I was also full back in the school rugby team....the hospital position ! Tennis and golf were the main summer sports. Swimming all the year round. I fancied being a SCUBA diver among other things...mainly because I fancied Lotte Hass....look it up !

    I did weight training at Stephens shipyard sport club and learned unarmed combat from an ex commando who was a wartime instructor at Achnacarry. Luckily I never had to use it.
    I reckoned I could outrun any potential attacker.

    Later on I took up mountaineering but I did not have a good head for heights or exposure, having been taken out of my depth by really experienced climbers. It would only have been a matter of time before I fell off an seriously injured or killed myself.

    I got a piece of good advice to mollify my ego...“ It takes more courage to quit a climb than blunder on regardless”

    Oct 17th, 2017 - 12:04 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Think

    Mr. DemonTree....
    Good memory..., lad... :-)

    Oct 17th, 2017 - 01:12 pm - Link - Report abuse -1
  • DemonTree

    @TV
    So there is no water on the north side of the island? Not even wells?

    I guess the Turkish Cypriots are scared of the Greek Cypriots then, and want the Turkish army there to protect them, and the Greek Cypriots are scared of the Turkish army, or just don't want a hostile country's army interfering in their affairs. They lived together okay before all this happened didn't they?

    @Clyde15
    You really were into sports! We only played touch rugby at school, probably the start of paranoia about kids doing anything dangerous. Did you ever try scuba diving? I had a go in a freezing cold quarry in Cambridgeshire, it wasn't quite the clear blue seas I'd imagined. :)

    I bet people were more active in those days before computers became so common. I have friends who go to the gym but that just bores me; I don't know why exercise has to be such a chore.

    @Think
    This is the downside of having a good memory. :( Capt Rockhopper probably believes the 13 states agreed to federalise so they could all have cheap holidays at Virginia Beach.

    Oct 17th, 2017 - 02:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Clyde15

    DT

    In my teens there was no access to scuba diving in Scotland. It was a mediterranean sport and expensive. My daughter and family are fully qualified divers...the girls are 12 and 15.
    At present they are in Mauritius diving. Earlier in the year they were in Mexico and then Hawaii doing some more. The plan is that in university breaks they can get jobs as instructors being fully qualified open water divers.

    There are dams in N.Cyprus..I visited them regularly on a bird watching holiday about 12 years ago. But they are shallow and probably not enough to supply the population.

    Oct 17th, 2017 - 04:24 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    Damn, that sounds fun, and as clear and blue as you could wish for. Those girls are very lucky. Do people scuba dive in Scotland these days? I imagine the visibility in the lochs is about 2 inches, but maybe in the sea?

    I never tried it again because it gave me claustrophobia. :( I could suppress it most of the time, but still it put me off doing it again. Maybe it would have been better with more visibility, I don't know, but I've stuck to snorkelling since.

    Oct 17th, 2017 - 07:29 pm - Link - Report abuse -1
  • The Voice

    Clyde, I saw Peggy Seeger two years ago at Cambridge Folk Festival seen her before. The last time ever I saw your face was played at my friends wifes funeral, a magic song. We will go in 2018 again its a great event. We go to Nettlebed FC, Maddie Prior yesterday. Village Winos tonight. Cornish folk club on tbe weekend at Lostwithiel. Looking forward to Celtic Connections and a bit of ice climbing possibly.

    Oct 17th, 2017 - 10:25 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Clyde15

    DT
    Yes, you can scuba dive in Scotland but you need to wear wet or dry suits if you want to live.
    Those who know say that there are wonderful dive sites as good as anywhere else on earth.
    There are huge coral reefs off the west coat and the chance to dive with whales and basking sharks. St.Abbs head near the border and the sea lochs round the Clyde are popular sites. There are now commercial scallop divers. This is much better way of fishing as it does not destroy the sea bed and only the mature scallops are picked.

    Marine archaeology is also becoming a popular pastime with the number of wrecks off our coast. About ten years ago my daughter was responsible for Marine Archaeology through Historic Scotland and dived on a few Armada wrecks and a civil war sloop off Mull.
    She said it was cold !

    No one really dives in freshwater lochs because there is nothing much there and visibility in peat covered water is zero.

    I still have Pete Seegers banjo tutor and Peggy Seeger's teach yourself L.P with book.

    My ancient record collection has about 200 LP's from 1958 to the mid 60's, with the complete volumes of Sing Out from 1955-65. Reading them now is part of 20th century history.
    Interviews with Woody Guthrie, Bob Dylan and old 1930's blues artists,Robert Johnson, Broonzy, Leadbetter...... Martin Luther King and the importance of Folk Songs during his civil rights campaign. It seems so long ago now !

    Oct 18th, 2017 - 10:19 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    @Clyde15
    Oh yeah, we had to wear wetsuits in Cambridgeshire, that quarry was freezing! I swam in Coniston water without one once, and the cold was shocking (literally, I couldn't breath for a minute after I jumped in). It would not have been a good idea to stay in long.

    I've seen pictures of nice beaches in Scotland, but I didn't know there were coral reefs, that's cool. It's a shame they didn't start doing it earlier so you could have a go.

    Did they find anything interesting in the wrecks? And which civil war was that wreck from, by the way?

    Oct 18th, 2017 - 04:28 pm - Link - Report abuse -1
  • Clyde15

    I probably gave you the wrong impression about the coral reefs. They are in very deep water well out to sea and not really accessible to SCUBA divers.

    The wreck she visited off Mull was probably the Swan which sank in 1653 in Cromwell's time. No treasures but items relating to equipment and armament of the time.
    Of interest to archaeologists
    .
    .bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-21831878

    Yes, this shock to the system happens to everyone. It can lead to death as your limbs can cease to function.

    I had this experience on the Achensee in Austria in 1958. It was mid day with the temp. of 32°c and I dived in off a jetty into about 7 feet of water. I went rigid with shock at the cold and sank to the bottom. I was totally numb. I floated up and immediately started swimming the crawl, going like a windmill although I had no feeling in my skin. I was told that I hit the sandy beach and continued swimming kicking up sand everywhere before I realised I was out the water. The Lake was filled with snowmelt from the Alps which was at its coldest 3°c between 10/noon. Pools of water were heated by the sun the rest of the day raising the temp.to 20°c by 7pm. Our swimming regime was changed to the evening just before dinner.

    Oct 18th, 2017 - 06:41 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    It's a shame the reefs are so inaccessible. But how does the coral get enough sunlight to survive if it's so deep under water?

    And 3°C? Ouch! I guess you were lucky you floated to the top and were able to start swimming, because if anyone else had dived in to rescue you they would have had the same problem.

    Have you ever tried snorkelling?

    Oct 18th, 2017 - 11:41 pm - Link - Report abuse -1
  • Clyde15

    DT
    I would suggest that you Google “Scotland's cold water coral reefs” for an explanation.
    The corals are different from the tropical varieties. There is a beach on Skye made up of this coral which has been washed ashore from deep water.

    As to snorkeling, yes I have tried it but not successfully. As soon as I try to breathe, any water in the face mask goes up my nose and I choke.
    I have found it better to just hold my breathe for about a minute and a half then breathe again.

    Back to the main subject. I heard someone on the radio this morning who was friendly with a girl who works for Juncker. She said that he hates Britain and his mission was to humiliate and make us suffer on Brexit. That explains a lot.

    It was also pointed out that we have 47% of our imports from the EU and for the EU we are 17% of their trade. Sounds favourable to us , however,we make up the deficit with services to the EU. We could both manage under WTO rules but they do not apply to services.
    In order to supply services, we would have to be inside the EU. We could lose all this business.

    The bottom line is that we will get no concessions with Junkers. He will just string it along until zero hour and hope we will panic, collapse and accede to their demands.

    Never mind, with Teresa, we will be all right ! Fat chance !

    Oct 19th, 2017 - 10:37 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    Ah, I had a similar problem with snorkels. I would naturally try to breathe through my nose with the result that the face-mask would tighten and loosen alarmingly. It took me a while to get used to breathing only through my mouth, but it's nice not to have to keep sticking your head out to breathe.

    That's bad news about Juncker if it's true, and a pretty poor choice for the EU. Even if they want to screw us over for practical reasons they should pick a negotiator who will make rational decisions. They ought to be thinking about minimising the harm to themselves first of all.

    The problem for us is that overall a higher percentage of our trade is with the EU than vice-versa, it's just the natural consequence of being one country vs a block. To make matters worse, our most important exports are financial services, followed by other services, and these are the least likely to be included in any trade deal, not that that seems likely now.

    The news is very depressing, and our own negotiators seem to spend more time fighting among themselves than dealing with Europe.

    Oct 19th, 2017 - 01:06 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The Voice

    Clyde, perhsps its time for you to head for those music venues again. I just got a preamp and plugged my old but great Thorens record deck into the amp again. I have stacks of vinyls, we have had a great time listening into those snap crackle and pops. Still have my 1936 Jedson Banjo and a guitar. Met my Mrs while playing in a band and taught my daughter to play guitar at age 6 which she turned into a career. Life wouldnt be worth living without music! Enables you to forget politics and Brexit wrangling.

    Oct 19th, 2017 - 02:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Think

    You snorkeling Engrishmen should try some ”New Tech masks and fins.
    Have been using them the last couple of summers in the Ligurrean Sea and boy..., what a difference...!
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uBf5d-PKFrM

    Oct 19th, 2017 - 02:42 pm - Link - Report abuse -1
  • The Voice

    Very accessible from Brook Street and Dunoon ! Less so from Argenzuela. I rest my case....:-)

    Oct 19th, 2017 - 03:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    @Think
    That actually looks pretty good. I've mostly just hired snorkelling gear the times I've done it, but it would be much better being able to breathe through your nose too. What happens if you dive down while wearing it?

    Oct 19th, 2017 - 04:50 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The Voice

    Ahem!..I am not naive enough to believe that the dinosaur was just watching that for the masks. Creepy old git.

    Oct 19th, 2017 - 06:30 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Think

    Mr. DemonTree...
    The amount of air inside the mask makes it less than ideal for diving...
    But..., precisely its high buoyancy combined with the floatability of the Topside Hydro Fins and a cute Thermal Rash Vest from Nineplus..., make loooooooong swims in Med waters a painless pleasure...

    Oct 20th, 2017 - 11:24 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    Damn. Now you've made me want to go snorkelling in the Med, and it's winter. I like to dive down but not too far; I can never get my ears to pop. So maybe it wouldn't matter.

    Oct 20th, 2017 - 01:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Think

    Water temperature in the Mediterranean today...: ~22 centigrades...
    https://seatemperature.info/europe-water-temperature.html
    It has never been EASYer to JET the AIR as with RYAN...
    What are you waiting boy...?
    To get old and tired...?

    Oct 20th, 2017 - 02:54 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    It doesn't seem prudent to spend the money. Besides, even if the sea is still warm, it's not very tempting to swim when the air is cold. Though at least I wouldn't have to worry about sunburn.

    Oct 20th, 2017 - 10:57 pm - Link - Report abuse 0

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