MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
Argentine twelve-month economic activity to November contracts 7.5%
Economic activity in Argentina slumped 7.5% in November, the INDEC statistic bureau reported on Thursday. The comparative drop in activity from November 2017 and November last year was the most significant since June 2009's eight per cent slump.
The data were revealed in the INDEC's Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE).
Argentina's economic difficulties have been compounded by a decline in global economic activity, which the International Monetary Fund warned could worsen in 2019 if major world economies continued down a path of trade tension.
The Mauricio Macri government signed a US$56 billion “stand-by” loan package with the Fund in June when the country's peso plummeted.
The EMAE calculation serves to highlight evolutionary trends in economic activity and as a forecaster of gross product.
The Argentine economy receded 2.2% from January to November, the INDEC reported.
The Distribution and Retail was among the worst performing industries in November, with activity dropping 17% in November 2018 compared to the same period last year. It was followed by Manufacturing, with a 12.6% slump; and Transport and Communication, which fell 4.9% in the same period.
“We do not have the data for the fourth quarter of 2018 – the numbers have not yet been published – but Argentina faced a GDP contraction during that year of around two percent,” Treasury Minister Nicolás Dujovne admitted on Wednesday.
“The biggest drop in GDP in Argentina occurred in the second half of last year,” he said, speaking at a press conference at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, accompanied by Central Bank chief Guido Sandleris.
Dujovne argued that a brighter outlook lay ahead for Argentina.
“The message I want to send is that the shocks that we suffered in 2018 reinforced our government's commitment towards reforms,” he said. “So we decided to accelerate the path toward fiscal balance.”
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Read all comments“The comparative drop in activity from November 2017 and November last year was the most significant since June 2009's eight per cent slump.”
Jan 29th, 2019 - 07:22 pm 0...and yet CFK was re-elected in 2011 after that 8% drop.
As always, Reekie likes to cherry-pick the bits of bad news that support his anti-Macri agenda but maybe he is missing a bigger picture?
Also, when CFK had an 8% drop in economic activity was that because of her “clumsiness, or a deliberate plan to break the working class' back”?
Reekie has provided possible causes for the effect so why not the same causes for the same (slightly worse) effect under CFK? You can't have it both ways.
“However, for many Argentines, the content in their fridges is going to be a powerful motivator in October. ”
Feb 01st, 2019 - 06:16 pm 0I am sure it will, but there are many factors involved in how people vote, which is my point.
You are suggesting that a 7.5% drop in economic activity is a kiss of death for Macri even though CFK got re-elected after a 8% drop. The opinion polls are close and close elections are notoriously difficult to predict.
When you focus on the bad stuff you are missing the bigger picture. I say that there is currently a 50% chance that your bubble will be popped in the elections.
...and I am not your son.
In the end, the Macri administration came down to a matter of pesos and centavos, making redundant debates such as whether Macri is a neo-liberal, or part of the most backward oligarchy, whether the economic debacle is a result of Macri's clumsiness, or a deliberate plan to break the working class' back.
Jan 26th, 2019 - 12:42 am -1Now it's a matter of unity and action of all those who want to stop the bleeding and avoid total disintegration.
The time is now.
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