MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
Brazilian central bank survey reveals growing expectation about pension reform
Economists continue to slash their forecasts for Brazilian economic growth this year, according to a closely watched survey published on Monday, intensifying the spotlight on a key Congressional vote on pension reform later in the week. Read full article
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Disclaimer & comment rulesGovt pushes for pension reform, but plans multi-billion debt relief for big farmers
Apr 23rd, 2019 - 02:50 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Brazil’s Bolsonaro will bring back 2017 bill to pardon big rural entrepreneurs for R$17 billion worth of tax evasion
https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2019/04/15/govt-pushes-for-pension-reform-but-plans-multi-billion-debt-relief-for-big-farmers/
Veritas numquam reperietur!
Apr 26th, 2019 - 12:08 am - Link - Report abuse 0”The right wing extremist government of Jair Bolsonaro has opened the pork barrel and is offering R$40 million to each congressman who votes in favor of privatizing the national pension system fund, lowering minimum benefits and raising the retirement age. According to Folha de São Paulo newspaper, Bolsonaro’s Chief of Staff, arms industry shill Onyx Lorenzoni (DEM) (who admitted to using an illegal corporate slush fund to finance his congressional campaign in 2017) offered an extra R$40 million for parliamentary amendments to each congressman who votes in favor of changing the constitution and ratifying the pension reform bill, which is based on a similar measure implemented during the bloody Augusto Pinochet dictatorship in Chile in 1980, during a period in which all opposition was brutally repressed. With starvation level retirement payments, Chile currently has one of the highest rates of suicide among senior citizens in the world.
Apr 28th, 2019 - 07:57 pm - Link - Report abuse 0http://www.brasilwire.com/bolsonaro-shells-out-millions-for-pension-reform-votes/
@Terence Hill
Apr 29th, 2019 - 02:31 am - Link - Report abuse 0REF: “offering R$40 million to each congressman who votes in favor of privatizing the national pension system fund”
You get worked-up too soon! The BEST news is that the “clients” of Serasa are increasing by Leaps & Bounds!
@:o))
Apr 29th, 2019 - 06:30 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Trying to “privatize” the nat'l pension fund (INSS)....is pure fantasy, or rather, pure, unadulterated bullshit, printed by leftist sites such as 'brasilwire' and others - with the sole intention of misinforming - which some poor idiots subscribe to - and believe.
It is funny though, to read that the more radical ‘petistas’, Carlos Zarattini and Paulo Pimenta, accuse Bolsonaro of using “old fashion methods”…..would these methods perhaps be those the PT 'always' used ? sounds an awful lot like it does.
Consulting reliable sources for information could avoid this ....as well as your buddy, Gollum, frothing at the mouth....he can't stay on focus....from presenting misleading information on the pension reform in Brazil, he wanders off into the Pinochet dictatorship...that's serious sh*t...needs his brain, or what there is of it, examined.
Jack Bauer aka Proof-less and Truth-less
Apr 29th, 2019 - 07:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“pure, unadulterated bullshit,” If it was then your opinion would out weigh the research “According to Folha de São Paulo newspaper” They don't appear to have any credibility problems. Neither do you, as we can safely conclude on your long record of untruths that this is another lie also.
http://en.mercopress. com/2018/04/04/brazil-s-conundrum-army-chief-twits-good-citizens-repudiate-impunity-and-respect-the-constitution/comments#comment486481
http://en.mercopress. com/2017/07/12/brazil-former-president-lula-da-silva-found-guilty-of-corruption/comments#comment470714
http://en.mercopress. com/2017/07/20/ex-brazilian-president-assets-and-bank-accounts-frozen/comments#comment471145
http://en.mercopress. com/2018/03/20/lula-begins-tour-of-south-brazil-and-meets-mujica-but-it-was-a-bad-day-for-both-leaders/comments#comment485779
http://en.mer
“Onyx Lorenzoni”. Sounds like a Hunger Games character. Just throw in Thomas Jefferson and Marco Aurelio and you'd think you were living in Panem.
Apr 29th, 2019 - 10:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Anyway, Guedes is planning to privatise part of the pension fund, isn't he?
JB, you can reply to me here re “B announces 13th salary...”.
DT
Apr 30th, 2019 - 09:23 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Working, 'n still receiving the BF, exists when the (registered) worker’s salary plus family income is less than 50% of the min wage ‘per capita’ (which implies that ‘informal’ workers -not registered - can carry-on receiving the BF; this is the most common - the most common situation or, plain fraud.
The PB increase was maintained, but with a slight reduction ‘n diluted over a slightly longer period. The issue was settled 2 days later, after PB prez explained how prices/increases worked.
No surprise the share value dropped, as the stock exchange is extremely sensitive to rumors....which only meant bad time to sell, good time to buy.
PG never said (nor insinuated) “he would quit if B didn’t support him”, as that situation has not arisen. However he told Congress, pointblank, that “he had no political ambition, he'd only accepted the challenge to help fix things, but if they didn’t want his help, he could easily leave 'n return to the private sector”. This was repeatedly shown on the news, so I know the press misinterpreted the facts. Congress will undoubtedly negotiate /suggest changes - totally expected.
”…sounds like experience”…Of course it is....and there ARE different schools of thought in economics - it’s not an exact science but neither is it “guesswork”, like trying to pin the tail on the donkey…experience gives you insight, allows you to make an “educated” guess (if you must use the word).
In economics it’s virtually impossible to be 100% sure of the result.... like if you jump off a cliff, you know you’ll die.
And, in government, besides the variables, on a far larger scale, you have all sorts of events, not to say 'sabotage', working against you - very different to a private company, where the boss decides, and supervises the process.
The PT only continued FHC policies in the beginning, because they had little choice - they were totally unprepared to take over, but then created their own style which eventually screwed the economy.
Re the BF, that's what I thought, that families who earn little enough can go on receiving it, but didn't realise undeclared earnings was the fraud you were talking about. Is it common for informal workers to make more than minimum wage?
May 01st, 2019 - 07:07 pm - Link - Report abuse 0PB increase was settled after Guedes sorted it out, wasn't it? At least, MP quoted him saying he'd clear it up, and a few days later it was settled. As for him quitting, I was thinking of this quote:
“If the president supports the things that I believe can help Brazil, I will be here. But if neither the president nor the House nor anyone else wants that, I will go back to what I was doing.”
https://en.mercopress.com/2019/03/28/as-bolsonaro-s-influence-wanes-congress-more-demanding-and-minister-guedes-ready-to-resign
Did he actually say that? Cos it certainly sounds like he wasn't sure of B's support, let alone Congress's.
Can't remember what I said in the last comment, but economics is a social science I guess (often looked down on by those in 'hard' sciences). You can say 'form a hypothesis' if you prefer. ;) I know it's not all guesswork; some aspects have been pretty well demonstrated, others are more in the realm of theory. But besides that there's the gap between theory and execution - like infrastructure investments that turn into opportunities for graft. That's one reason the optimum plan in theory may not be the best in reality.
As for sabotage, I don't think that's really the case, but it's a true a President doesn't have the same type of power as a CEO. They much more have to convince others to agree with them rather than simply giving orders.
Re the PT, I'm not sure their economic policies were all that radical. Or at least, if Dilma failed to get Brazil out of recession, one can't say Temer has done much better in his two years, despite very different policies. It's too soon to say how B/Guedes is doing.
@JB/@DT
May 02nd, 2019 - 10:10 am - Link - Report abuse 0ALL hopes are on Paulo Guedes - as an economist [NOT as a politician]:
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kiaFLl1cuK0/W2riA0uNCuI/AAAAAAAAj6I/aP1cBfpH0vEYkE3Tu5-5DzYovpcdOElLQCEwYBhgL/s1600/pergunte-ao-paulo-guedes.jpg
DT
May 02nd, 2019 - 04:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Information fm a few reports (mainly fm IBGE), referring to 2017/18, indicates : Out of the roughly 90 million workers (defined as anyone with some type of remunerated activity), abt 37 million are considered informal (40%).
The average income for a registered worker was R$ 2,222, while for an informal worker was R$ 1,180… 18% over the minimum wage (R$ 998); As such, many are receiving the BF fraudulently.
The PB increase was only put on hold until PG and PB clarified the issue with B. PG had several meetings with different Congressional committees…he did actually say “If the president supports the things that I believe can help Brazil, I will be here. But if neither the president nor the House nor anyone else wants that, I will go back to what I was doing”, but imo, the press’ interpretation was over-dramatic ; afaic, PG said it as a purely hypothetical situation, as B never attempted to de-authorize him regarding the pension reform, and PG didn’t say it in the tone of an ultimatum…more like letting off steam ;
But on the other hand, if the reform is not passed with 90% of the projected savings over 10 years, the fiscal situation will make Brazil ungovernable.
Re economics, call it want you want, but certain principles, if applied, will produce a likely result, but the problem is there are dozens of variables to be considered simultaneously…it’s a matter of dosing them correctly. A theory , or a plan may not play out as foreseen…much like a doctor treating a very sick patient...despite based on knowledge, the result is not always predictable.
There are many ways of sabotaging : the PT & allies committed to voting against the reform before they even knew what it entailed (their usual behavior). The PT’s policies weren’t necessarily radical, just bad, wrong.
Temer changed direction (re Dilma) but he inherited the worst deal possible. This crisis has been, by far, the worst Brazil has faced....never before has the economy been derailed so disastrously.
Given such a high percentage of workers are in the informal sector, are people asked to declare informal earnings when applying for the BF? But I suppose even if they are, it's much harder to check up on them. Didn't you say businesses would sometimes pay bonuses under the table, even to formal workers, too?
May 02nd, 2019 - 08:53 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Re Guedes, glad to know MP isn't spreading fake news. To my mind, what he said was more a warning than a response to anything. Seems a foreign notion to most of that lot that someone might be more interested in policy than building a power base and getting out as much as they can.
“much like a doctor treating a very sick patient”
That's what I was trying to say in the other thread. Governments in eg the UK look good because they're like a doctor treating a patient who's generally healthy and only has minor illnesses. Whereas Brazil is like a patient with serious illnesses; it's just harder to treat and cure.
As a science, economics has the big disadvantage of being unable to really experiment. Medicine at least has proper drug trials. When theories can't be tested, unrealistic ideas stick around far too long - like the one that humans act as rational agents trying to maximise utility.
As for the pension reform, it can still pass without the PT's support, right? You're not going to end up like America where the government commonly seems to be paralysed.
Speaking of America, they - and we - had our worst recession since the 30s in 2008. Makes me wonder if Brazil is suffering a delayed version of that or if it's unrelated.
The other thread has closed, I could reply on https://en.mercopress.com/2019/04/29/bolsonaro-sons-aim-at-the-pragmatic-vice-president-mourao-calling-him-traitor/comments ?
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