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Montevideo, July 17th 2019 - 20:56 UTC

 

 

President Macri's reelection chances improving according to leading pollster

Tuesday, July 9th 2019 - 09:55 UTC
Full article 14 comments

President Mauricio Macri’s chances of winning Argentina’s election this year are improving as public sentiment climbs and the economy begins to find its footing after a currency crisis, according to Alejandro Catterberg, director of Poliarquia, one of the nation’s top pollsters. Read full article

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  • Zaphod Beeblebrox

    Is history about to repeat itself?

    I posted previously that opinion polls showed a steady improvement, from a poor start, for Macri during the 2015 election.

    We shall see...

    Jul 09th, 2019 - 05:15 pm - Link - Report abuse +1
  • Tarquin Fin

    Zaphod: Agreed. It's certainly starting to look like that. Just a few months ago I was already convinced that Cristina would return. Only time will tell.

    Jul 09th, 2019 - 06:43 pm - Link - Report abuse +1
  • Enrique Massot

    The Macri administration has embarked on the same strategy it successfully used in the November 2017 legislative election: after starving the economy to the max, they are now re-activating public works, offering low-interest credits to the retired, and postponing most public services price increases until after the October presidential election.

    The IMF is gladly financing the sudden bonanza, including the funds required to keep the value of the peso stable for the time being.

    The measure to which citizens will fall for this strategy amounting to bribing electors with their own money remains to be seen.

    Jul 09th, 2019 - 07:09 pm - Link - Report abuse -2
  • Tarquin Fin

    That's right, this as bad as bribing electors with public jobs and handouts.Hopefully whoever wins this years starts applying the golden rule: You cannot spend more than what you get.

    Jul 09th, 2019 - 07:15 pm - Link - Report abuse +2
  • Little J

    Hopefully the polls will prove to be correct and that therefore we will not be “blessed” with another K government as from 10th December next.

    Jul 09th, 2019 - 08:25 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Tarquin Fin

    People might tend to give a second chance to this administration. Too early to tell. Many could eventually prefer this to a possible Cristina reloaded.

    Incidentally, Fernando De La Rua died today at 81. The only president in Argentina to be ousted by a totally civilian coup. The one who was denied further support from the IMF at the last minute and thus precipitated one of the biggest crisis in our history.
    The situation is different now, the IMF seems to be boldly involved in supporting Macri. This gives him a clear advantage to drive the disenchanted but cautious back home.

    I will still convert any pesos that I have left to USD.

    Jul 09th, 2019 - 09:15 pm - Link - Report abuse +1
  • Enrique Massot

    @TF

    “Fernando De La Rua died...only president in Argentina to be ousted by a totally civilian coup.”

    “Totally civilian coup?”

    Are you trying to accommodate history according to your preferences?

    According to Wikipedia, “De la Rúa called a state of emergency during the December 2001 riots.”

    So yes, there was popular anger at De La Rua government, there were riots, and the subsequent repression caused 27 deaths and thousands of injuries.

    ”(De La Rua) resigned on 20 December, and the Congress appointed a new President.”

    In Argentina, we all know what a coup d'etat is. This was not one by any means.

    That is: all Argentines know, but the individual nicknamed as Tarquin Fin.

    Jul 10th, 2019 - 05:15 am - Link - Report abuse -1
  • Tarquin Fin

    Enrique,

    The 27 deaths were a tragedy. I remember well the chaos. It took me four hours to get back home that day. I was afraid just like most people trying to make sense of the situation and trying to make sure that loved ones were out of harm's way.

    But you are mistaken about that idealized “popular anger” of yours. That anger wasn't that popular, and certainly not representative of the majority of us. Most people was pissed but not the extent of becoming violent. Unless of course, the ones that had a political motivation to become violent.

    Even the military coups had civilian support. That is something that every Argentine knows. 2001 was a coup, a soft one, but a coup nonetheless. I find it surprising that a politically savvy person as yourself wouldn't be aware of the stealth moves carried out by some of the most relevant “compañeros” of the peronist brotherhood.

    Jul 10th, 2019 - 01:11 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • bushpilot

    He was way up north in Canada for the whole thing. With his socialist theology safe and intact.

    Jul 10th, 2019 - 01:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Enrique Massot

    @TF

    Of course! I should have known.

    “2001 was a coup, a soft one, but a coup nonetheless.”

    Come on. Argentina's economy was in shambles, and poor De La Rua did not know what to do.

    It follows that your “coup” argument is about leveling the playing field.

    If Peronists carried out a coup, then everything is the same. Videla, Ongania, Rojas, Aramburu...and Peronism. How convenient.

    Certainly De La Rua was with you. He did claim to be the victim of a “Peronist coup.” It is true that the Peronists were not interested in forming a coalition government with De La Rua at that point. And who can blame them?

    So there have been at least two people in Argentina supporting the “coup” theory: the late De La Rua and the individual nicknamed Tarquin Fin.

    @BP

    Bug off.

    Jul 10th, 2019 - 04:33 pm - Link - Report abuse -1
  • Zaphod Beeblebrox

    I found the source of the poll data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Argentine_general_election#/media/File:Encuestas_de_intencion_de_voto_presidenciales_Argentina_2015.jpg

    Bearing in mind that approval rating (2019) and intention to vote (2015) are not the same thing we have:

    May 2015 = 27.01% May 2019 = 28%
    Jun 2015 = 27.1% Jun 2019 = 34%
    Jul 2015 = 29.3%
    Aug 2015 = 28.2%
    Sep 2015 = 29.4%
    Oct 2015 = 28.1%
    Primary = 34.1%

    We shall see...

    Jul 10th, 2019 - 05:18 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Tarquin Fin

    Enrique,

    “Come on. Argentina's economy was in shambles, and poor De La Rua did not know what to do.” - Agree a 100%.

    “So there have been at least two people in Argentina supporting the “coup” theory: the late De La Rua and the individual nicknamed Tarquin Fin.”

    Ok, let's see. I usually charge for this kind of thing.

    If you pay attention to the markets, specially the commodities that concern Argentina, something peculiar happened starting in late '99 => Low price valley, increasing demand from protein conversion industry. => Futures are low, market about to swing (unlike us rest of the mortals, some people does know how to read the oracle)

    Argentina recession, overvalued peso, weak president, fiscal deficit, greedy unscrupulous politicians, greedier cronies => Let's bust this joker's ass!! This ride will be ours!! (And finally the market delivered around May-June 2002 -- Oh Lord! You should have seen their faces!)

    Just dig a bit deeper than the headlines. Your naiveness is almost cute.

    Jul 10th, 2019 - 06:28 pm - Link - Report abuse +1
  • Enrique Massot

    @TF

    Interesting. But you are veering off the road, pal.

    We were debating your statement about how former president Fernando De La Rua had been toppled from power in December 2001 by a “totally civilian coup.”

    I said no civilian coup happened but lack of direction, popular discontent, deadly police repression and a chaotic economic situation made De La Rua resign.

    You agreed about the bad economic situation.

    Then, you tell us we are about to read something you “usually charge” for: market trader secrets that, “unlike us the rest of the mortals, some people...know how to read the oracle.”

    Sure. The markets turned around. We weren't talking about it though, but thanks for sharing anyway.

    Then, after showing the depth of your knowledge, the cherry:

    ”Just dig a bit deeper than the headlines. Your naiveness (sic) is almost cute.”

    Sure. Perhaps my naïveté prevents me from seeing your point.

    Posted 5 days ago - Link - Report abuse -2
  • :o))

    Trying to convince everyone that The Beggar is NOT a beggar?

    Posted 3 days ago - Link - Report abuse 0

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