By Andrés Bello (*) - Argentine President Mauricio Macri seems almost certain to lose his country’s presidential election next month, after committing the same kinds of economic policy mistakes that so many of his Peronist predecessors made. It is a tragic and catastrophically disappointing denouement. Read full article
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Andres Velasco analysis points to some of the factors that made the Macri government do worse -- much worse -- than the government of Cristina Fernandez they replaced.Oct 01st, 2019 - 05:03 pm - Link - Report abuse -3
However, Velasco stays in the surface and fails to mention some root causes for the economic debacle.
The first one is, Macri and his team considered inflation to be just a monetary problem, therefore their approach to solve it was erroneous -- they thought siphoning currency from the marketplace, opening wide the door to imports and reducing the Argentines' purchase power would push prices down. Didn't happen.
These measures, in a country that consumes domestically 70 per cent of what produces, led to a contraction of economic activity.
On the other hand, Macri and his team kept busy trying to obliterate Peronism -- they pressured some judges to incarcerate former CFK government officials for alleged corruption, sometimes early in the judicial processes, in a travesty of justice. They kept talking about the heavy inheritance left by CFK, even while taking the economy downhill.
Macri could have asked former Canadian Conservative PM Stephen Harper, who devoted much energy to the destruction of the Liberal Party and ended up being overwhelmed -- by the Liberals -- at the end of his second term.
Macri appears to run towards a similar end. And contrary to Velasco's anticipated tragic and catastrophically disappointing denouement, electors are coming massively back to Kirchnerism and Peronism after tasting what a selfish, elitist and lying government could do for them.
Reap what you sow EM, God help Argentina. The unwashed want a free handout and will elect Fernandez for that reason. If I was one of the unwashed I would want the same.15.8 million on the poverty line. Wake up Argentina and work for a living instead of sponging off the State.Oct 02nd, 2019 - 07:37 am - Link - Report abuse -3
As a trained economist (from an elite university) it pains me to live in a country where half the population (and even many economists!) believe that inflation is not a purely monetary phenomenon. Only 3 countries (Zimbabwe, Venezuela and Argentina) have been suffering from perennial high inflation the last 15 years -- and the only economists in the world arguing that inflation isn't an entirely monetary caused problem come from these countries. Anyone connecting the dots?Oct 02nd, 2019 - 03:34 pm - Link - Report abuse +2
What's at display in Argentina these days is human stupidity at its worst; at its most arrogant, myopic and dogmatic worst.
As a humble Patagonian retiree who has had the honour of frequenting some good schools..., and with more than a superfluous knowledge of Vilfredo Pareto''s theories..., it pains me to read a dogmatic economist lies about the Absolute Truth of one of Milton Friedman's auld POSTULATES...Oct 02nd, 2019 - 06:17 pm - Link - Report abuse -3
What the above turnipy economist is displaying here is human stupidity at its worst...; at its most arrogant, myopic and dogmatic worst...
The above turnipy Economist should try to remember that the science he chose to graduate in..., ain't no exact science...!
If anybody is interested in debunking the lies and misconceptions of the above turnipy economist..., try..., for example..., to Google...:
*** Inflation: Merely a monetary phenomenon? ***
Lots of good material already on the first hits...
Saluti dalla Liguria...
Didn't take long before 'The Moron Squad' presented itself.Oct 02nd, 2019 - 07:27 pm - Link - Report abuse +2
If the 2-3 anachronic idiots on this site were just that, 2-3 idiots, Argentina would've been just fine. Unfortunately we're surrounded by millions of them - an army of brainwashed zombie ignoramuses who're convinced they've understood it.
Argentina is a lost case, a conclusion the rest of the world have reached since long ago.
Note to meself...Oct 02nd, 2019 - 10:29 pm - Link - Report abuse -3
- Remember to Google what the psychological diagnosis would be for one that feels...:
***Surrounded by millions of Them - An army of brainwashed zombie ignoramuses who're convinced they've “understood it”...***
Neo Liberalismo at its worstOct 03rd, 2019 - 03:38 am - Link - Report abuse -2
Another common concept about inflation is low productivity, i.e: Economic output is not on par with the promise of value of its monetary base. Hence, currency looses value, prices go up, salaries must be increased and savings suffer.Oct 03rd, 2019 - 10:15 pm - Link - Report abuse +3
So it is pretty much two sides of the same coin, either printing too much for the value of your economy or producing too little to keep the promises you made.
J BSOct 04th, 2019 - 04:06 am - Link - Report abuse -1
Again, believing you can tame inflation without having a healthy economy borders superstition.
In any event, the discussion now in Argentina is: Did Macri do what he did out of clumsiness? Or was it all part of a well thought-out plan to reduce the working class to a mass of paupers and concentrate whatever wealth was left in a few hands?
What counts in the end, Macri and his gang are going down in flames in just over three weeks.
As I said before, dictatorships never made old bones in Argentina. Macri came on the heels of a democratic election, but his goals were similar to those of Cavallo in the 1990s and Martinez de Hoz in the 1970s. He obviously thought he could freely abuse people and then give them some cliches and platitudes to keep them happy. But the Argentines demonstrated once again they can't be fooled twice.
To the utter despair of here dinosaurs, here comes Kirchnerism again!
Speaking about dinosaurus..., Sr. Massot...Oct 04th, 2019 - 09:21 am - Link - Report abuse -2
Hereby find linked a short video of the Madres y Abuelas de Plaza de Barrancas de Belgrano...
Quite probably the mothers and grandmothers of posters as Tarquin Fin & Jonaz_BsAs...;-)
(My personal favourite...??? That sweet auld lady that did touch a poor person in 1968...!!! )
Whatever his intentions, the plan obviously was NOT well thought out, since it has ended with Macri trailing in the polls and his wife looking at leaving the country.Oct 04th, 2019 - 09:35 am - Link - Report abuse +1
Is it possible that running a country is harder than it looks, just as economics is not the exact science Jonaz likes to claim?
here comes Kirchnerism again!
Hmm. Does that mean you think there is not much difference between the two Fernandez's, or that Cristina will be the power behind the throne as much of her opposition has claimed?
DT,Oct 04th, 2019 - 02:47 pm - Link - Report abuse +1
There was no plan. At least not a serious plan. Only naive assumptions, like keeping the current state spending based on debt and then when eventually the economy lifts off, pay the debt back.
Running a country is a lot more harder that it looks. Specially a country in which individuals with magical thinking abound.
No matter what kind of political strength Alberto gets, he'll have a taste of unrealistic demands right from the get go.
So you'd better be a terse sob with a big smile to tame the beast. Somewhat what Menem pulled out in the 90's
And no, it wasn't the dollar peg what caused the crisis. It was, and always will be, spending more that what you earn.
Like @Enrique, believing you can tame inflation without having a healthy economy borders superstition He is damn right about this. Then he goes on spewing some of the usual useless propaganda. Then here again the magical thought: Economic growth means we can spend more and more and there always be enough ... Hehe
Have you ever experienced having a 15 yo. with a credit card extension?
That's what it takes to run this country. Just block all cc extensions.
TFOct 05th, 2019 - 10:55 pm - Link - Report abuse -1
I am wary of those who advertise to be trained economists and even more of those who claim to have been in an elite university.
In Argentina we had our share of well-trained economists who took the country's economy downhill every time they were in charge.
All is simple for our elite economist: To run this country, Just block all cc extensions.
E.M true and several of them studied at elite universites in the US of A. Seem to recall Macri saying he had gathered together the most highly trained economic team in Argentinas recent history.Oct 06th, 2019 - 12:26 am - Link - Report abuse 0
@Enrique, Paragon: Would you call fucking UTN an elite university?Oct 06th, 2019 - 04:33 am - Link - Report abuse +1
Forget about complex economic models. Just basic math like 2+2=4.
What's really scary is the so obvious bias you both have towards everyday survival skills we peasants have to go through to figure out lives. That's a dimension very, very far away from your lusty philosophical rantings and worthless sociological theories.
My story is simple enough for any of you illuminated punks to understand. By the late nineties I was making 1570 USD a month. Tons of money for an argie wannabe soon to be defaulted prick. My highest income since '98 was about 2700 USD. My last income for Sept. 2019 was barely 930 USD (Thank God my wife is making 1200 USD right now).
I could have easily be kicking it back on a Big X software company. All I would I have to do is just keep sucking up to upper management and big label clients. Just never seen me in that position. So humiliating, boring and depressing. Definitely not me.
What I have come to know and really feel like a purpose is to make an impact. Even if that doesn't look good in linkedin. Just bringing in cloud solutions to a meek western greater BA 20+ convenience store chain makes me happy. The impact of that just makes my life worth living.
This realm is pretty much a 2+2=4 kind of universe. If basic math fails there, people are not able to feed their loved ones.
Take a minute and judge for yourselves. One video is worth a thousand excuses:
O sea..., un pebete nerd..., binario..., mantenido por su mina..., que insulta a todo aquel que no concuerde con su inducida ultra simplista neo-realidad y neo-sentido común del 2+2=4 como método organizativo del más complejo y caotico de los sistemas orgánicos existentes en nuestro planeta..., la sociedad humana...Oct 06th, 2019 - 10:26 am - Link - Report abuse -1
Think belongs to the O'Brien school of mathematics... 2 + 2 = whatever the Party says it is.Oct 06th, 2019 - 02:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
TFOct 06th, 2019 - 04:26 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
This realm is pretty much a 2+2=4 kind of universe. If basic math fails there, people are not able to feed their loved ones.
Sure. Basic math tells us populist CFK ended her government with less than 20 per cent inflation...unemployment under six per cent...manageable foreign debt. The mainstream media cries wolf...it's imminent the country's demise.
Enters the son of a wealthy entrepreneur, market-friendly Mauricio Macri.
Fast forward four years...inflation shoots well past 50 per cent and unemployment is over 10 per cent. The country is now carrying a heavy foreign debt equivalent to an annual GDP.
As they say...basic math. Simple as 2+2 = 4.
Enrique,Oct 06th, 2019 - 04:50 pm - Link - Report abuse +1
Yes indeed. That is basic math. What's really naive is thinking that CFK and his boy Kiciloff did things right.
Then came idiot Mauricio and created more ministries. And now idiot Alberto is talking about creating even more ministries.
Just follow the money and see for yourself where the leaks are. Most of the tax revenue gets trapped in useless programs and useless departments and sub-departments and/or promotion funds, subsidies to local corporations and unions' fatsos that use health funds for their own coveted business partnering with the subsidized local moguls.
How much of what is meant for social help does actually reach the ones that really need it?
Are that many middle men really necessary?
Yeah. What's really scary is people that mock common sense and basic math and think that Argentina still is a rich country.
Think belongs to the Think school of sociology where.. 2 + 2 = whatever people make it to be...Oct 06th, 2019 - 06:10 pm - Link - Report abuse -1
TFOct 06th, 2019 - 06:30 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
Argentina isn't a poor country either, so government mismanagement must be a big share of the problem.
Sociology is even less of a science than economics, but I doubt you studied either at your 'elite university'. It was probably Marxist history or something.
@DTOct 06th, 2019 - 06:46 pm - Link - Report abuse +2
Ok. We are not poor either. Let's say that we are potentially rich. You can think of us as an upper class idiot who burned the inherited fortune in parties, drugs and hookers.
Mr. DemonTree...Oct 06th, 2019 - 07:58 pm - Link - Report abuse -1
***Sociology is even less of a science than economics.***
Well..., that's more than evident in my above equation..., lad....
As we say in Spanish...: Chocolate por la noticia...!
Argie pebete with the funny Anglo name...
*** You can think of us as an upper class idiot who burned the inherited fortune in parties, drugs and hookers.***..., you say...
A great Irish artist and eximious bon vivant once declared...:
*** I spent a lot of money on booze, birds and fast cars. The rest I just squandered.***
TFOct 06th, 2019 - 08:05 pm - Link - Report abuse +1
Lol. Nice image. But I think of it more like someone whose well paid career has been made obsolete by technology and is struggling to find a new place in the world. Plus lots and lots of bad financial management. Not parties, booze and hookers but boring everyday overspending, and borrowing without the prospect of paying it off.
I just can't see you doing any science, even social science. You seem like a humanities kind of guy.
Ma non capisco niente, mio caro Think.Oct 06th, 2019 - 10:52 pm - Link - Report abuse +1
If you are in the arts, then I guess that squandering is ok. It can give you the kind of glamour that'll make your life legendary.
Funny!Oct 07th, 2019 - 10:33 am - Link - Report abuse 0
No one came forward to buy Argentina - not even for peanuts?
Il pebete non capisce niente...!Oct 07th, 2019 - 01:39 pm - Link - Report abuse -1
As we say in Spanish...............: Chocolate por la noticia...!