Caution minded since Argentine public opinion polls were so far off the mark during the August Primary mandatory elections which triggered the current major political and financial upheaval in the country...
…some pollsters have made public their estimates for the first round of the presidential election at the end of the month and coincide that the difference between the incumbent and opposition candidates continues to widen from the original 16 percentage points registered in August 11.
In effect Opinaia and Federico González & Associates were not so accurate in the turning date of August, the first estimated Cristina Kirchner sponsored Alberto Fernandez would be ahead of Mauricio Macri and his re-election attempt by 1,7 percentage points while the second had forecasted a 7.7 percentage points lead.
On this occasion Opinaia, having polled 3.000 cases online, between September 23/30 and an error margin of plus/minus 1.8%, has Fernandez ahead of Macri by some 18 points (48% to 30%). The third candidate in dispute ex finance minister Roberto Lavagna manages 7%.
If the undecided or no answer votes are projected, the difference climbs to 19 points (52%/33%)
As to the performance of the Macri administration, over 70% have a negative opinion, disappointed with the management of the economy, poverty and inflation.
Federico Gonazalez opinion poll includes 1.400 cases, in Buenos Aires capital and metropolitan Buenos Aires with face to face interviews, but in the rest of Argentina on the phone. The poll was done between September 29 and October 2nd.
This is the third post PASO primary poll released by Gonzalez, and in his previous (second one) the difference between Fernandez and Macri was 18.9 points and with the projection of the undecided, 20.9 points.
But in the latest release the difference climbs to 22.1 and 23.9 percentage points. In the previous poll, Fernandez had a 50% support while Macri 27.9%, and Lavagna, 8.8% In other words, the opposition candidate has reached 54.1% and the incumbent 30.2%.
The latest opinion polls to be made public follow the launching of Macri's reelection campaign under the slogan Yes we can and a raft of populist measures inspired to contain food prices and inflation.