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Correct predictor of US presidential election since 1984, sees Biden in the White House

Speaking to Fox News, Prof. Lichtman explained his prediction for a Biden victory based on his Keys to the White House model

An American University professor, Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted the outcome of every US presidential election since 1984 has weighed in on the outcome of the 2020 election, predicting a Joe Biden victory.

Speaking to Fox News, Prof. Lichtman explained his prediction for a Biden victory based on his Keys to the White House model. First created in 1981 alongside Russian scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok and later published in a book in 1996, the model is based on earthquake studies and has a set of 13 “keys” that are used as predictors for determining the outcome of the US presidential elections.

Notably, it is based entirely on the performance of the incumbent and their party, which will determine if their party will secure the Oval Office for another term or if it will be lost to the opposition. These keys cover a wide variety of topics, including scandal, a party's control of the House of Representatives, the state of the economy, social unrest, foreign/military successes and failures, charisma

In essence, “It's governing, not campaigning, that counts,” Lichtman explained. Under this theory, whichever side holds six or more Keys in their favor will win the election, while campaigning and comments made during the campaign are dismissed by the voters as campaign rhetoric and spin.

It was utilizing this theory that Lichtman successfully predicted Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 election, being one of the few forecasters to do so rather than favor Hillary Clinton. This did not go unnoticed by Trump, who actually wrote Lichtman a thank-you note on a copy of a Washington Post article about the prediction.

But this time, Trump's prospects don't look as strong.

“Now that Trump is the incumbent, he has seven Keys against him,” Lichtman explained to Fox News, compared to the six Keys in his favor in 2016. “My prediction is that Donald Trump will become the first sitting president since George H. W. Bush in 1992 to lose a reelection bid, and Joe Biden will become the next president of the United States.”

Lichtman attributed these results entirely to the events of 2020. Prior to this, Trump's prospects looked far better, with only four Keys out against him. However, this was changed as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and its resulting economic crisis, as well as the widespread social unrest sparked by the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis.

Lichtman quoted former US President Herbert Hoover, who sat in the Oval Office at the start of the Great Depression. “When you're president, you get credit for the sunshine and the blame for the rain,” Lichtman explained. “And it's raining pretty hard on America right now.”

Lichtman later took to social media to reaffirm his prediction, writing on Twitter that “My final prediction based on the Keys to the White House stands unchanged. I am still predicting that Donald Trump becomes the first sitting president to lose reelection since 1992 and that Joe Biden will be the next president of the United States.”