Argentina must closely monitor the evolution of the Falkland Islands' economy as a result of the UK's exit from the European Union since this strategic error means a new chapter can be opened in the long sovereignty conflict between Argentina and UK.
We must patiently try to recover the support for out claim from the European countries, which means a medium and long term evolving strategy, equally sustained as coherent, underlines the Buenos Aires daily La Nacion editorial, Brexit and Malvinas.
The editorial points out that UK Overseas Territories were specifically left out of the Brexit accord, which means things have substantially changed for the Falklands' people. It means an end to the generous subsidies, direct and indirect, from the EU enjoyed by the Islands besides the end of zero tariffs and quotas to that market which absorbs 90% of exports. Fishing licenses can be expected to be less attractive.
The political side of this is the end of EU endorsement for UK regarding the sovereignty dispute, and it is time for Argentina to try patiently to recover the support for its claims from European countries. This needs a strategic mid and long term evolution, both sustained and coherent.
Further on the editorial addressed the UK economy's long recession and with public debt above 100%, for the first time since 1963. It mentions the 11,3% GDP contraction last year and a budget deficit to the tune of 14% of GDP, the highest since World War II, plus a trade deficit close to 6% of GDP. To this must be added the inevitable impact of the Covid 19 pandemic insists La Nacion editorial.
The Bank of England forecasts that in the coming 15 years, UK will suffer an accumulated loss of between 4% and 10% of its GDP, which has already started as a consequence of Brexit and abandoning the EU.
Thus, it seems essential for Argentina to follow closely the course of the Falklands economy as a consequence of the adverse blow to its finances, because of Brexit, a strategic error, already accomplished is bound to have different collateral impacts.
Finally it concludes, a new chapter may open for the long sovereignty conflict Argentina has with the UK over the Falklands.