Argentina's monthly inflation for April 2021 is expected to be around 3.8%, according to consulting firms surveyed by the Central Bank.
If these projections hold, inflation for 2021 would be around 47.3%. All the other South American countries, except Venezuela, can measure their yearly inflation in one digit.
The Market Expectations Survey (REM) has corrected the increase in the cost of living upwards. They foresee an official exchange rate of $ 112.64 per dollar in December 2021 and AR $ 159.09 per dollar by the end of 2022. Friday's rate was 1 US $ = 93.56 AR $, while on the unofficial market one US dollar equals 145 Argentine pesos.
This year's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow 6.4%, which is 0.2 percentage points below previous REM projections but far better than the 2020s 9.9% fall year-on-year.
Analysts also estimate monthly inflation is bound to slow down following April's data due to a projected -1.5%contraction for the second quarter of 2021.
”There is a slightly increasing trend in the monthly forecasts and until the end of the year, raising the level of the (interest) rate to 35%”, highlighted the REM.
The last REM issue foresees 2021 FOB exports to amount to US $ 63,725 million, which is US $ 1,298 million above the previous REM forecast and USD 8,841 million better than 2020's US $ 54,884 million.
On the other hand, imports for the year 2021 would be worth US $ 50,400 million, or US $ 1,176 million above the previous REM forecast of and US $ 8,046 million higher than last year's US $ 42,354 million.
Meanwhile, there was no change in unemployment for the first quarter of 2021 (11.2%), from the previous issue of REM, but it is expected to grow up to 11.7% for the second quarter of 2021 to then fall to 11.1% for the third quarter and further down to 11% in the last quarter of the year.