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Montevideo, October 3rd 2023 - 09:47 UTC



Argentine inflation is world's fourth highest, says IMF

Tuesday, October 12th 2021 - 22:15 UTC
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A vaccine gap plays a key role in different projections worldwide, the IMF said A vaccine gap plays a key role in different projections worldwide, the IMF said

Argentina's inflation turned out to be the world's fourth-highest, according to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) World Economic Outlook report released Tuesday in Washington.

The study does not include inflation forecasts in the case of Argentina, because of the ongoing negotiations, which may impact those figures significantly. “For Argentina, the fiscal and inflation variables are excluded from the publication for 2021-26, as they are largely linked to the program negotiations still pending,” said the report.

Nevertheless, Argentine Central Bank's latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) said 2021's outcome would be of 48.4% and those are the figures the IMF currently uses during talks with the AArgentine Government.

Venezuela (2,700%) tops the inflation list, followed by Sudan (115.5%) and Suriname (48.6%), with Yemen (45%) and Zimbabwe (41%) behind.

Average inflation in Latin America and the Caribbean area is 9.7% if Venezuela is left our of the equation.

IMF's projections for next year were said to come with “considerable uncertainty,” due to rising housing costs, the rise in food prices worldwide and currency depreciations in emerging markets. Food alone went up around 40% worldwide during the pandemic.

Nevertheless, the IMF did project a rising growth for Argentina's economy during in the near future - 7.5% for 2021 and 2.5% for 2022, better than July's estimations and above the regional and world average.

In July, the IMF forecast a 6.4 percent recovery for Argentina, which has now been updated in accordance with World Bank data released last week.

For Latin America, the IMF projects a 6.3 percent recovery, while globally the recovery will be 5.9.

The rise in prices of raw materials herald a rise in exports of trade and services by 1% in 2021, and 0.8% by 2022.

Globally, “the aggregate production of the group of advanced economies is expected to regain its pre-pandemic trend path in 2022 and exceed it by 0.9 percent in 2024,” the report also said.

By contrast, aggregate output for the emerging market and developing economies group (excluding China) will remain 5.5% below a pre-pandemic forecast for 2024, “resulting in a further setback for improvements in their living standards.”

”These divergences are a consequence of the 'large vaccine gap' and large disparities in policy support,” the Fund said.


Top Comments

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  • Pugol-H

    Where is Enrique & Co to explain how this is not as bad as it sounds, it is being miss-represented, blah, blah, blah.

    Otherwise, we might be tempted to think (and yes, where is he to explain this) that thing are going to shit down there.

    Oct 12th, 2021 - 11:02 pm 0
  • Chicureo

    P U G O L (ttwh)

    Poor Enrique as he cannot explain the major disaster occurring…

    Everyone seems to be anticipating high inflation for food products. Just the fuel costs for shipping lines have substantially increased.

    One of my very close friends is an Argentine residing in San Juan. The government is in a panic as the cost of living has impoverished his area with diminished real income and serious unemployment.

    Their debt crisis and artificial controls over their agriculture make things impossible.

    His current opinion is things will get worse…

    Our families used to ski together before the pandemic — but he’s now watching his country continue to spiral into an abyss. Argentina and Chile have opened our borders — so I expect a visit soon.

    As healthcare is deteriorating there — he has been paying premiums of a Chilean health care provider here and I imagine he’ll go through a routine physical.

    He also served in the armada and we first met when he had me as a military delegate guest at their famed elegant Círculo Militar in Buenos Aires. Say what you want to say — but their club is one of the finest in the world with the very best of cuisine!

    All the best from Panquehue!

    Oct 13th, 2021 - 12:39 am 0
  • Dirk Dikkler

    It comes to something when Zimbabwe & the Yemen have more Control over there inflation than Argentina.

    Oct 13th, 2021 - 02:05 pm 0
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