Chile's September Monthly Economic Activity Index, (IMACEC), jumped 15,6% compared to a year ago, above market expectations (13%), and 1,7% over the previous month, as reported by the Chilean central bank.
All IMACEC components have grown, particularly services, and to a lesser extent the production of goods and retail trade, according to the central bank, and this is the result mainly of a greater opening of the economy, support measures for households, the partial withdrawal of pension funds, and because of the much lower base which was September 2020
As to the performance of different sectors, goods production was up 7,5%, particularly in association with industries linked to construction that reached 19,5%; manufacturing, 10,4%, while mining contracted 6,7%
Relative to commerce, activity ballooned 20,3% including sales of machinery and equipment and at the retail level, sales of clothing, footwear and household equipment. Meantime services increased 19%, focused on personal services, mainly education and health. To a lesser extent restaurants, hotels and transport. Overall it was a 3,6% increase over the previous month.
The central bank also revealed its inflation estimate for the whole twelve months of 5,4% and thus the Monetary Policy Rate is expected to reach 5% in March 2022, according to the latest survey of financial operators.
Likewise October inflation is estimated at 1%, November, 0,6% and December 0,5%. The central bank lending rate is anticipated to end at 3,5%. By 2022 the central bank lending rate will steadily increase, 5% in March, 5,25% in May and 5,5% in June. Finally, the survey estimates that the US dollar will float in the range of 825 Chilean Pesos during November.
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