MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Argentina foresees foreign trade surplus for 2022, study shows

The BCR study assumes a GDP growth in 2022 of 0.8%, an exchange rate that remains stable at AR$ 102 / US$ 1, and an unchanged set of rules for other variables

Due to the international increase in the price of agricultural products, Argentine traders foresee a trade surplus of US$ 14.1 billion for this year, because while imports would total US$ 70.6 billion, exports would reach US$ 84.4, according to a report by the Department of Information and Economic Studies of the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR).

As a consequence of the war between Russia and Ukraine and its ensuing rise in the price of agricultural commodities, Argentina -as well as other countries in the region- is expected to achieve record exports. The main agro-industrial chains alone would contribute over US$ 41 billion, bringing total shipments abroad in 2022 to US$ 84.4 billion.

Meanwhile, on the other side, there is concern about an increase in the price of imported inputs such as oil, fertilizers, and gas. Current projections foresee imports this year would reach US$ 70.6 billion.

As a result, Argentina would have a trade surplus of around US$ 14.1 billion, which would allow the Government to accrue more reserves to comply with the guidelines agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The BCR study forecasts exports in 2022 could reach a total of US$ 84.84 billion with US$ 41.05 billion stemming from agriculture, a US$ 3 billion million increase from last year.

Exports of the soybean complex are projected at US$ 23.74 billion, which would therefore exceed 2021 exports by US$ 269 million, while corn complex shipments would reach US$ 9.65 billion. An increase of US$328 against 2021 would drive 2002 exports of the wheat complex up to US$ 4.74 billion.

The rise in prices together with that of volumes should lead to an increase in increase the worth of exports by almost US$ 1.43 billion when compared to 2021.

Sales of the sunflower complex would reach US$ 1.84 billion, US$538 million above 2021 figures, while the barley complex would record shipments worth US$ 1.07 billion.

On the other hand, imports would increase mainly due to the adjustment in prices. The BCR study assumes a GDP growth in 2022 of 0.8%, an exchange rate that remains stable at AR$ 102 / US$ 1, and an unchanged set of rules for other variables.