MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Ukraine corn expected to help cope with EU's lowest maize crop in 15 years

The 2022 EU maize crop forecast dropped to 50.4 million tons from 52.9 million projected in September

As drought and lack of humidity ravages French corn fields, an abundant production and sales from Ukraine is helping to overcome shortages and market distortions, according to the French consultancy Strategie Grains.

In a monthly cereal report, the French consultancy lowered its 2022 EU maize crop forecast to 50.4 million tons from 52.9 million projected in September. This is nearly 25% below its forecast of 66.8 million tons last June, before severe heat waves damaged plants during key summer growth stages.

The latest outlook was 28% below estimated 2021 production and would be the smallest EU crop in 15 years.

However, Strategie Grains raised its projection of EU maize imports in the current 2022/23 season following a recent rush of imports supported by the Black Sea corridor for Ukrainian shipments.

“The European maize harvest is confirmed at the calamitously low level of just over 50 million tons, although users already anticipated this production crash and imported massively,” it said in the report.

“Thus, the European maize market is effectively finding some breathing space thanks to the arrival of Ukrainian (as well as Brazilian) corn.”

Supply would remain dependant on the war situation in Ukraine, including the continuation of the shipping corridor, Strategie Grains added.

The forecast for increased EU maize imports in 2022/23 jumped to 23.0 million tons from 21.4 million projected last month, with imports from Ukraine now expected at 12.8 million tons against 10.4 million forecast in September.