MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Brazil reports record trade surplus in September

Brazilian exports are expected to remain stable in 2023 while imports are likely to fall by 11.5%

Thanks to lower fuel imports and improved grain harvest results, Brazil's Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services this week announced a trade surplus of $8.904 billion for September 2023, a 51.2% improvement over the same month last year, Agencia Brasil reported.

Following September’s result, Brazil’s trade balance closed out the first nine months of the year with an accumulated surplus of US$ 71.309 billion—the highest result for the period since the current time series began in 1989.

Compared to the monthly result, exports were on the rise, while imports plummeted in September. Last month, Brazil sold US$ 28.431 billion abroad, up 4.4% against the same month in 2022. Purchases from abroad totaled US$19.527 billion, down 17.6%.

On the export side, the record grain harvest and the surge in oil production offset the global shrinkage in the price of some commodities. On the import side, the fall in the price of oil and its products was the main reason behind the downturn.

Last month, the volume of goods exported rose 7.2%, whereas prices sank 7.4% on average compared to the same month last year. As for imports, the quantity bought fell by 8.7% and average prices went down by 14.5%.

Despite the devaluation of commodities, the government has slightly revised its trade surplus projection upwards. For 2023, the government predicts a positive balance of US$ 93 billion, against the previous projection of US$ 84.7 billion made in July.

According to the ministry, exports should remain stable in 2023, rising just 0.02% and ending the year at US$ 334.2 billion. Estimates are updated every three months. Imports are likely to fall by 11.5% and end the year at US$ 241.1 billion.

The forecasts are much more optimistic than those of the financial market. The Focus readout, a survey of market analysts published every week by the Central Bank (BCB), forecasts a surplus of US$72.1 billion this year.

(Source: Agencia Brasil)